The latest Newspoll shows Labor’s lead at 52-48, equal lowest since the election of the Rudd government. It is the first time the government has trailed on the primary vote, by 40 per cent (steady on the previous poll) to 41 per cent (up three points) – the previous 52-48 result from October 30-November 1 having had the parties on 41 per cent each. The Greens are steady on 12 per cent, with “others” down from 10 per cent to 7 per cent. Kevin Rudd has suffered no damage on preferred prime minister, leading 58 per cent to 26 per cent (both up one). More to follow.
Other news:
• Essential Research has Labor’s two-party lead at 56-44 for the third week running. It also finds that while the majority of Labor and Coalition voters are firm if not fruity, 24 per cent of Greens voters (double the rate for the majors) “might consider another party and leader closer to an election”. Seventy per cent say politicians “should not be giving advice on moral issues”. Fifty-seven per cent support the Shopping Centre Council’s call for a ban on politicians campaigning in shopping centres. Respondents want a republic but not a new flag, nor (what the hell is wrong with people?) a new national anthem.
• Political party financial disclosure returns, such as they are, have been published. Labor and the Coalition parties were evenly matched on receipts, Labor receiving $42.9 million for 2008-09 against $38.4 million for the Liberals and $5.2 million for the Nationals – sharply down on last year due to the absence in the period of so much as a by-election. The Australian counts $4.65 million in donations to Labor from unions (the opposition makes it $11 million), the Coalition parties received $800,000 from Clive Palmer, and the Westfield Corporation evenly divided $230,000 between the two. Stephen Mayne in Crikey points to the disparity between the Queensland and WA branches of the ALP in a period when both had state elections: $14.3 million in receipts and $15.8 million in expenses for the victorious party in Queensland, against $4 million and $4.5 million for the defeated party in WA. Labor is $7 million in debt, the Liberals $4.2 million.
• Tim Dick of the Sydney Morning Herald reviews the recall election issue. All of the American examples cited refer to individual offices – a very different matter from dissolving an assembly, which the Coalition proposes to look at once in government. However, the article also notes the Canadian province of British Columbia has allowed members to recall their local MPs since 1995. Only one attempt managed to procure the required 40 per cent of voters’ signatures, and the MP in question obviated the need for a recall election (as distinct from a by-election) by resigning. In the current environment in New South Wales, that would obviously inspire efforts to knock off enough Labor MPs to cost the government its majority.
• Toni Bell of the Manning River Times reports John Turner, Nationals member for the NSW state seat of Myall Lakes, has announced his 23-year parliamentary career will end at next year’s election. Turner lost the party’s deputy leadership in 2003 and was dumped as Shadow Mineral Resources and Lands Minister in December 2008. The electorate, which covers the north coast north of Newcastle and south of Port Macquarie, will presumably become of interest to the Liberals.
Another Newspoll ‘special’ as ERM is unchanged eh
So much for the early DD, this next week should be interesting
As much as I don’t like this result, it’s a big up you to the tossers who think Rudd Labor is invincible and “certain” of an increased majority.
Hubris – it kills the arrogant.
ERM?
My Take, Tones in the Women’s Weekly – people still in holiday mode post Aust Day and getting kids ready for School.
Could show a narrowing if it becomes part of a larger trend, and maybe it is, even essential and Morgan have been polling a few points lower than usual, but still well within the margin of error.
Will have to wait another 2 weeks for confirmation I guess.
But expect the media to make a big deal about it nevertheless.
ER. typo.
And the Greens on 12%!!!!
It’s happening!!!!
😀 :kiss:
[But expect the media to make a big deal about it nevertheless]
Till it goes up again of course 😉
PPM
58/26 to Kev
Something fishy going on again?
Yay! I picked it. Not hard to believe, but wow, the coalition could have written a better script for the start of an election year.
Bad thing for Abbott is that the next one is likely to revert to the previous polls which may be interpreted as a rejection of his CC alternative.
Dio@1267, previous thread:
[I think I need a few hours of your time. I’m about 3/4 of the way through a book on the Riemann Hypothesis and my brain is telling me that it is in pain but I’m going to finish the book if it kills me.]
I feel for you. That’s heavy stuff. You’re not Opus Dei are you?
Who gives a stuff about prime numbers anyhow? OK, internet banking, but really. Go outside, get some fresh air, smell the roses.
[Twenty-five years ago it would have been a piece of cake. Where did all those neurons go? Intelligence definitely goes down with age. I’m not sure what it is replaced by.]
Insanity is hereditary. You get it from your kids.
From Antony:
[ABCElections
Newspoll Labor 2-party preferred 52%. ABC calculator predicts Labor 81 seats Coalition 66, see http://bit.ly/cSAmB4 #election2010 3 minutes ago from web ]
Tony still loses 🙂
Move along, nothing to see here.
Once parliament resumes and the voters are reminded of how bad Abbott and his team really are it will be business as usual.
Nick
[or you could be having a particularly stressful time at present]
The only thing stressing me is trying to understand how eigenvalues of a Hermitian matrix correspond to the zeta function.
[… or you are expecting too much from yourself. Number theory is not for amateurs.]
That’s not what the book cover told me! The reviewers said it would “read like a mystery novel” and have me “on the edge of my seat”.
An ACN poll would be handy about now 🙂
Wait till the three stooges (The Mad Monk, Chucky’s Mum and Sloppy) put in their normal performance in QT and we will be back to normal 🙂
Three of the last four polls for the Greens have been 12% federally. Here come the Greens!
[Wait till the three stooges (The Mad Monk, Chucky’s Mum and Sloppy) put in their normal performance in QT and we will be back to normal]
Yes because the average joe gives a shit about politics, especially Question Time….
*rolls eyes*
As I said Rudd wont go DD on the ETS he would rather fight the election on economics where he has done well and the likes of Abbott, Joyce and Hockey are hill-billies.
There is hardly a thing about the Liberal Party at the moment you could vote for. They are a rabble without a cause. Yet the public who tend to pay no attention until it is too late, give them credibility in the polls.
You could say we get the government we deserve. However the Senate that gives Rudd such a hard time would also block the sick policies that a minchin or abbott would try to bring in.
Samantha Maiden’s tweets included this gem:
[While Labor is still leading 52:48 two pp according to #Newspoll, it is best result since election. http://www.theaustralian.com.au]
Is this the result of the brevity imposed by the medium or has Sam nailed her colours to the mast?
Best result FOR WHOM? The Australian, perhaps?
Three of the last four polls for the Greens have been 12% federally. Here come the Greens!
Be careful what you wish for. The more support the Greens gain, and indeed the more support they want to gain, the closer they are going to have to shift their policies to the center, (even to the right?)
Vera
I must say that the 52-48 is a tad overcooked.
tho 52-48 has some mystical significance for newspoll
The Honeymoon continues, for Abbott that is. But before you got carried away, just remember Latham. He was on the honeymoon too.
The thing that commentators missed in Abbott’s viriginit interview was his reference to ‘the rules’.
This should have been the focus of public comment. Why?
The rules are God’s rules, as passed along by the Pope. The rules tell you what is a sin. Mortal sins are more important than venial sins because if you die in a state of mortal sin you go to hell. Here are some examples of mortal sins:
1. masturbation
2. homosexual acts between men (interestingly, homosexual acts between women are probably not mortal sins because they do not involve the sin of Onan, that is to say, the spilling of seed)
3. sex before marriage
4. contraception (it sort of acts as a de facto spilling of the seed).
Why does this matter? These rules are absolute not relative. God made these rules. They are sourced from the New Testament and through thinking about what is natural, nature’s laws being an expression of God’s will.
Why is this important? For Abbott these are absolute rules, there cannot be a separation between pubic and private morality.
For Abbott, a sin is a sin is a sin. For Abbott the man, this is a matter between himself and his Maker. For Abbott the wannabe PM, this is a matter between him and the voters.
From the previous thread. Should be still relevant (& it took me over an hour)
Adding to Scarpat #1233 Re National Testing, league tables etc
For the teachers, TUists, Parents etc with an interest in National Testing …
13 years since I did any reading on this – and I could be reading the same debate in Oz (& from Oz teachers) as I did in on-line articles re the UK system (introduced 1992).
So I thought you might like to take a time machine to c2020+, try a few Sneak Peeks at the Shape of Things to Come issues & suggestions you can raise at the most convenient moments – also guaranteed to raise your Oracular / Smart-arse reputation and Brownie Points tally!
Not since the post-war period (& the 70-80s in Q) has Australia contributed much to the Ed ideas or curricula, or teaching techniques implemented in Oz. We borrow from OS; it used to be from the USA, until its schools became so dire. Since the 1982 Cockcroft Report on Mathematics Teaching more likely from UK & Europe. Why re-invent the wheel? Why not simply adapt what’s already there ahead of the time it actually gets implemented here?
Here’s the UK’s National Literacy Trust on a later version of the easlier NTs & league tables: League tables and standards testing As well as showing the contrary moves on England (on one hand) & Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland (on the other), it also summarises the debate going backwards from 2008!
There’s a good East Essex County Council page + links on Education ‘league tables’ and Ofsted reports
For the Department for Children, Schools & Families (inc a sneaky link to the new primary schools curriculum, Common Assessment framework, Inclusion etc try Department for Children, Schools & Families (BTW: This, esp the LHS column, hardly sounds like the full title of Gillard’s Ministry at all, does it, eh?) Try also the BIS site at http://www.dcsf.gov.uk/rsgateway/LEAS/845.shtml
Want to tart up your school report on the N Tests? There’s lots on the web, like Woodlands Junior School: Understanding SATS Tests & Reports in 2009 Not a bad model!
And a heavy-weight Oxford University Centre for Educational Assessment “Roundtable” pdf on The Future of National testing in the UK (Nov 2008)
Of course, we should throw in a paper on EURYDICE: National Testing of Pupils in Europe: Objectives, Organisation and Use of Results”
Hope all those links, esp to pdfs actually work.
This old Policy Wonk (ret) hopes this little sample works for you as well as larger versions did 13 plus years ago!
Well what do you know? Tony Abbott has got a honeymoon bounce. It’s those budgie smugglers that’s still in peoples brains I tell you 😆
PPM 58/26. Sweet!
Seriously – what do you expect after 6 weeks of Labor running dead in the media and Abbott picking up the media tart role… To use the pugilist analogy (everyone seems to do it these days 😉 ), Labor has been in the corner between rounds while Tony has been swinging like mad at no-one in the middle – Newspoll and the other pollsters are judges that for some reason have decided to score the break.
If 52/48 is the best they can with all the anti climate change stuff in the media over the past 3 months, the Libs really are in for a hiding as soon as the Government comes out swinging again – Rudd’s just putting his mouth guard in as I type …
Hmmm….I wonder if the next newspoll will go missing?
Anyway, Dennis & Janet et al can have a little fun in the meantime.
About all the amusement they’ll get between now and the election, so let them have a play.
More self appinted advocy from the Australian. What else could have generated a shift? Let’s see….since the break for Christmas there has been …..ummm
A New leader for the libs
a world class debacle at Copenhagen
Appalling preditions of Australia’s 35 million population
Education of our children reduced to mere statistics
Not much reason to anticiapte some shift to the libs is there?
polyquats youve nailed Maiden. It is definately the OO’s BEST result since the election!! Interesting that the headline lauds Abbott rather than Coalition when PPM is unchanged
[Hmmm….I wonder if the next newspoll will go missing?[
They have a habit of losing them when they dont say what they like
😉
Well Newspoll always seem to undercook Labor, and essential, Morgan and AC Nielsen seem to overcook Labor, so I guess the real result might be somewhere in the middle.
Or who knows, maybe the public really have discovered a newfound love of tony Abbott. PPM wouldn’t seem to indicate so however.
Hmmm,
Did all the folk who criticized Abbott for being everywhere, gabbling about everying on everything during the Chrissy Hols get it wRONg?
Boerwoer
[They are sourced from the New Testament and through thinking about what is natural, nature’s laws being an expression of God’s will.]
Sorry, many years since I called myself a Christian, but none of these are sourced through the New Testament.
Dave, the fact that Labor did go quiet and let Abbott have his run shows how confident they must be. Surely the master Rudd who ouflanked Howard so comprehensively will easily have Abbott’s measure, but havent the media given Abbott a dream run???
I said it last year, and I said again last week. Abbott inevitably got a honeymoon over the summer, just by being around a lot and being a new face. This poll reflects that. But he’s had a very easy run for the last two months. The hard stuff starts tomorrow, and I maintain my view that he will crash and burn.
zoomster
then they will be against the laws of nature as interpreted by the Pope and expatiated via Bulls as matters of Faith and Dogma.
Andrew:
labor didn’t go quiet out of confidence
They were shellshocked by Copenhagen and sh!t scared by the population thing.
Kevin Rudd spent the last two years centralising power around his person.
This Christmas he took a long, long, break…just look who they left in front of the media Garrett….the whales…..who else?
Wow, a surprisingly good result for the Coalition there. Guess the election might not be the cakewalk that many pollbludgers predicted.
Seems like the electorate have finally started paying attention to the Opposition again – let’s face it, nobody cares what the crossbenches have to say for the first 2 years of a term anyway.
And worryingly for Labor, the voters are taking a look at what the Coalition have to offer – and are liking what they’re seeing.
Game on 🙂
Bob – 12% is good. However, I had hoped for a bit more. Not disappointed, just not celebrating.
GG@1284, previous thread:
[Andrew Elder would beg to diffr.]
If Andrew Elder is agin Annabelle Crabbe, that just confirms my opinion that she is great.
Anyone with this as a bio is not going anywhere, and hasn’t been anywhere yet:
http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/author.asp?id=5002
[Andrew Elder was a member of the Liberal Party of Australia, starting off as a libertarian-punk, then as a moderate seeking to preserve rights and freedoms in a changing world; now he scorns the know-nothing Liberals, doesn’t trust the left and disdains the other interest groups that flit around Australian politics, and does so publicly yet obscurely. He blogs at Politically Homeless.]
I actually think Abbott will continue to land a few punches on the Government, he’s climate policy might be received well by the public if he spins his message the right way, but ultimately I expect him to crash and burn, although not Mark Latham/Malcolm turnbull style mind you.
Government supporters need to be wary though of the same mentality that the Howard government went into 2007 with, that ‘all we need to do is bring the sledgehammer down on him and he will fall apart like the phoney he is”. Granted, Abbott and the Coalition aren’t going into this election anywhere near the same standing as Rudd and Labor in 2007, but I would err on the side of caution about relentless mudslinging and all out attack. It needs to be done forcefully, but subtly.
Demos @ # 39
[Wow, a surprisingly good result for the Coalition there. Guess the election might not be the cakewalk that many pollbludgers predicted.
Seems like the electorate have finally started paying attention to the Opposition again – let’s face it, nobody cares what the crossbenches have to say for the first 2 years of a term anyway.
And worryingly for Labor, the voters are taking a look at what the Coalition have to offer – and are liking what they’re seeing.
Game on 🙂 ]
They said the same about Mark Latham- and we all know what happened there 🙂
Chicken, Eggs, Hatch 🙂
[the voters are taking a look at what the Coalition have to offer – and are liking what they’re seeing.]
I don’t think they are. I think it’s more to do with gloss off Rudd than gloss on Abbott.
[12% is good. However, I had hoped for a bit more. Not disappointed, just not celebrating.]
Why not? The Greens, bit by bit, have built up a massive support base. They started grassroots, and have built up 0.1% by 0.1% their vote, and after the next election will hold the Senate balance of power.
This time last year 10% was good. Now 12% is good.
And as more of the left get pissed with Rudd, the Green vote will continue to rise.
Just look at NSW and the record 17% Green vote there 🙂
Boer @ 37
[then they will be against the laws of nature as interpreted by the Pope and expatiated via Bulls as matters of Faith and Dogma.]
So nothing to do with God, then.
Andrew
That was my point – Abbott and the Libs couldn’t have had a better run than the one they got in the last 6 or 8 weeks – it was free air. This poll was going to be the best they could expect IMO (unless Labor really come unstuck somewhere). The Government machine kicks into gear now and all those reports, committees and studies start to report and get implemented. Come July, I doubt the Government will be able to be painted as a do nothing Government (even if the ETS is not passed).
Nah, it’s an outlier.
[Nah, it’s an outlier.]
Even though the Labor primary vote was also 40% and the Greens 12% in the last Newspoll?
Hey. If it helps you sleep at night, believe nothing can change. Suck on your thumb too. Whatever gets you through 😉
Surely this Rudd record low Labor primary vote of 40% twice in a row must be concerning to partisan Labor hacks…
bob
I don’t have proof of this but the guy at electoral-vote said that minority parties tend to poll better in the lead-up to an election than at the actual election. It was something to do with them being a protest vote and the Greens soft vote on the latest ER backs that up.
He said voters didn’t follow through on their protest vote all the time. So the election probably won’t have the Greens up at 11-12%.
But we shall see.