Morgan phone poll: 53.5-46.5

Long overdue for a new post, so let the record note that Roy Morgan published results of a phone poll on Friday which had Labor’s lead at 53.5-46.5, compared with 54.5-45.5 at the previous such poll a month ago. It should be noted that Morgan’s headline polls are their face-to-face efforts, which are published weekly or fortnightly depending on the company’s whim, and these tend to show Labor with a bigger lead. The phone polls are from small samples of about 550, with a margin of error of over 4 per cent. Newspoll should report tomorrow evening, unless The Australian decides to get in early, and Essential Research should as always report tomorrow afternoon.

UPDATE (15/2/10): The Courier-Mail has delivered figures on Queensland federal voting in addition to yesterday’s state survey. They too show a lurch to the Coalition, from 46-54 behind in November to 51-49 ahead. This would represent a swing to the Coalition of 1.4 per cent from the 2007 election. However, the federal and state results taken together raise suspicions that this was a good sample for the Coalition.

UPDATE 2 (15/2/10): A Westpoll survey of 407 respondents in Western Australia shows the federal Coalition with a two-party lead of 51-49 in that state, which would amount to a 2.3 per cent swing to Labor compared with the 2007 election result. The previous such survey in December, conducted immediately after the leadership change, had Labor leading 53-47. The margin of error on these surveys is approaching 5 per cent.

UPDATE 3 (15/2/10): The Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead steady at 55-45. It also offers us the unusual spectacle of approval ratings of the parties’ finance spokesman: Lindsay Tanner is plus 7, Barnaby Joyce is minus 11, and both have high “don’t know” ratings. Further questions find Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister lower than it was, strong approval for a federal health takeover, and disapproval for a population of 36 million by 2050.

Much afoot in the world of Labor preselection:

• The Sydney Morning Herald reports Dobell MP Craig Thomson, who has hit heavy weather over allegations of credit card abuse and failure to disclose donations from his days as a Health Services Union official, will be challenged for Labor preselection by David Mehan, who contested the seat unsuccessfully in 2004. However, “factional number crunchers” quoted in the report do not expect him to be troubled.

• Roderick Shaw of the Penrith City Star reports Liberal Senator Marise Payne is said to be hopeful of standing in Lindsay at the next election. The seat’s Labor member, David Bradbury, has denied a rumour aired in Crikey that he wants Roger Price to make way for him in neighbouring Chifley.

• Fairfax reports Jason Young, Labor’s narrowly unsuccessful candidate for Bowman in 2007, has withdrawn from contention to stand again this year. The report quotes Young denying his withdrawal was releated to an imminent court appearance for driving with a suspended licence and in an unregistered vehicle. The front-runner appears to be Phil Weightman, who lost his state seat of Cleveland at the March 2009 election, and like Young is a member of the Left.

• Mark Kenny of The Advertiser reports Rick Sarre, professor of law and commerce at the University of South Australia, is firming in contention to win Labor preselection for Sturt.

• Soraiya Gharahkhani of the Campbelltown Macarthur Advertiser reports Camden deputy mayor Greg Warren has withdrawn from the Labor preselection race in Macarthur, which leaves Nick Bleasdale and Paul Nunnari.

• Roma Dickins of the Camden Advertiser reports on Pat Farmer’s hopes to keep his political career alive in the state seat of Camden, where he faces stiff opposition from local mayor Chris Patterson. Farmer has lost preselection for his federal seat of Macarthur.

• Stephen Mayne and Graeme Orr discuss party donation disclosures on Radio National’s The National Interest.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

885 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 53.5-46.5”

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  5. The answer….do nothing.

    [Eurogroup to push Greek reforms, not bailout

    Brussels (Reuters) – Euro zone finance ministers will exert more pressure on Greece to implement planned budget deficit cuts at a meeting on Monday, as they look to avoid having to deliver on a pledge of support for Athens.

    They are not expected to ask Greece for additional fiscal measures until after a review of Athens’ situation in March, although they may discuss what extra steps Greece could be asked to take if it does not show progress, sources said.]

    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE61E06T20100215

  8. Cuppa,
    Purely a personal impression (and based on a long but possibly unreliable memory):
    for virtually all of the Hawke years and much of the Keating PMship, the media was decidedly less hostile than at present. It’s also worth noting that Murdoch control of the substantial Herald and Weekly Times print publications only came about towards the end of the eighties. So although the print media was almost universally conservative, there was a greater diversity, until that shake-up.
    For Whitlam, there were two distinct phases:
    Murdoch bought the Packer-owned Telegraphs in 1971 or early 1972 and supported Whitlam’s quite enthusiastically prior to the 1972 election, and more mutedly in the 1974 re-run.
    The media generally was quite feral through 1975 as the Loans affair became the cause celebre, with the Age (only part-owned by Fairfax at the time) and the Melbourne Herald (then probably the country’s most influential afternoon n/paper) leading the charge, but the Australian and the Telly were singing from the same hymn sheet.
    When the blocking of supply occurred, there was much more division in the print media with the Fairfax elements concerned about the principle of the multiple breaches of convention which led to the impasse, while the Murdoch elements were happy to have an election more or less at any cost, because of the need to get rid of an “incompetent and probably corrupt”* Government at the earliest opportunity
    Where one stands on this depends on her/his prejudices. One side of politics viewed the Loans Affair as the greatest scandal and act of incompetence by any Government since Federation, while the alternative view was that it was a cack-handed but essentially harmless event. The blocking of supply saw the roles reversed with Government supporters considering the behaviour of the Opposition Parties as a contemptible disregard for constitutional propriety and the Opposition supporters determined to get an election by any means possible.
    There’s plenty of simplification/generalisation in the foregoing, but it’s a genuine attempt to provide an answer to your query.
    *That’s a paraphrase of the position and not an attempt at a direct quote.

  11. [KEVIN Rudd’s personal voter appeal is at its lowest since he became Labor leader more than three years ago as support for Labor’s emissions trading scheme slumps and the ALP’s primary support sits at its lowest since Kim Beazley was opposition leader.

    labor’s primary vote has dropped below 40 per cent for the first time since 2006 and the Coalition has managed to hold its primary vote at 40 per cent for a month for the first time since the 2007 election loss.

    On the weekend after the Rudd government reintroduced its plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions by putting a market price on carbon, public support for the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme dropped to a new low.

    In September last year, support for the CPRS was at 67 per cent but last weekend dropped to 57 per cent and those against the CPRS rose from 22 per cent to 34 per cent.

    Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.

    End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.

    While satisfaction with the Prime Minister is at a new low for him as leader, voter satisfaction with Tony Abbott’s Liberal leadership has reached a new high.]

    So says Shanahan

  17. IF the 2PP has remained steady or improved for the govt then we’ll have an excellent test for the ABC. Will they run with the OO spin on the PPM numbers or will they emphasise the 2PP?

  19. Tanner on CPI indexation of superannuation of public servants and defence force. Good old politicians get a different rate. A better one.

    Lucky old politicians such as Tanner.

  25. Britney Speers on Newspoll:

    sireggo is indeed on the money 🙂

    David_Speers

    Newspoll – Labor slightly better 2pp 53-47, but Rudd down a bit on better pm less than 20 seconds ago from mobile web

  26. [IF the 2PP has remained steady or improved for the govt then we’ll have an excellent test for the ABC. Will they run with the OO spin on the PPM numbers or will they emphasise the 2PP?]

    If Emma Rodgers writes the online piece, the heading will be the OO spin.

  34. [If Emma Rodgers writes the online piece, the heading will be the OO spin.]

    I was thinking more about the clowns on the ABC breakfast show

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