The West Australian has published a Westpoll survey of 400 voters in the outer southern Perth seat of Brand, held by Kim Beazley from 1996 to 2007 and by Gary Gray thereafter. The two-party vote is said to be 50-50, but it’s hard to square this with primary vote figures of 43 per cent for Labor (3.2 per cent below their result in 2007) and 42 per cent (up 3.4 per cent) for the Liberals. On 2007 preferences it would have been approaching 52-48, pointing to a swing against Labor of 4 per cent. Oddly, we are also told that if the old boundaries were in place the Liberals would be leading 45 per cent to 41 per cent on the primary vote and 52-48 on two-party (I make it 50-50), even though the redistribution has only boosted Labor 0.4 per cent by Antony Green’s estimation. The poll had a typical Westpoll sample of 406, giving it a high margin-of-error of a bit below 5 per cent.
Other findings:
• Fifty-six per cent of respondents oppposed the resources super profits tax, with only 25 per cent supporting it.
• Julia Gillard was found to be preferred over Kevin Rudd as preferred leader, 34 per cent to 31 per cent.
• Thirty-nine per cent said Tony Abbott’s “gospel truth” remark made them think less of him, against 54 per cent who said it made no difference.
• The government received “poor” ratings of 82 per cent poor rating for handling of the insulation program, 81 per cent for asylum seekers as poor (against 14 per cent good) and 60 per cent for climate change policy (against 29 per cent0 good).
• By contrast, and in good news for Julia Gillard, 46 per cent rated the government’s handling of the school hall construction program as good against 43 per cent poor.
• Respondents were split down the middle on the federal government’s health reform package, rated good by 45 per cent and poor by 46 per cent.
Note to Tone
Latham had a 54 approve 30 disapprove at a similar time in 2004.
Typo: Cory Bernadi 😉
Oooh! Wipe the floor with him, Maxine. I’m embarrassed to have him as my Senator. He’s easily SA’s worst!
Am I the only one who thinks Cory Bernadi looks like he could be the Republican candidate for US Senate for some midwestern state?
Keep in mind that Bolt’s only contact with the ‘real world’ lately was sitting on the Insiders panel. That does tend to distort your view of things.
Labor will not lose 4 seats in WA.
If Labor loses 4 seats in WA, then I’ll eat my hat, I’ll eat your hat, I’ll even eat the mad hatters hat.
And t(hat)’s the gospel truth!!
Looking at WA the only seats the ALP lose is Hasluck but I think they will hold the seats of Perth, Brand and Fremantle.
Ari 1798
That’s a lot of hats!
[Oooh! Wipe the floor with him, Maxine. I’m embarrassed to have him as my Senator. He’s easily SA’s worst!]
Pebbles, as a fellow croweater, that’s a big call. There’s so much from which to choose.
Was Cori telling the Gospel Truth when he blogged:
[In response to my question of why he joined the Liberal Party, the MP blithely responded “I live in a Liberal seat so I had to be a member of the Liberal Party to get into Parliament. If I lived in a Labor seat I would have joined the Labor Party”. Frankly I was aghast at this response. Where was the conviction, the beliefs, the values that I believe should motivate our political leaders? Several follow up questions disclosed that the only motivation for his own political involvement was for him to become Prime Minister.]
???
One other point that was alluded to, could you imagine the outcry if Whitlam, Hawke or Keating had resigned from the Labor Party?
Fraser won three elections for the Coalition, including the biggest post-war majority of 72% of the H of R seats in 1975, from a TPP of 55.7%. He’s not some bum staffer with an axe to grind.
The Coalition is foolish to ignore the implication of this and does so at its peril.
[Look at the results!
66% against the govt?
Yep, despite what the patron saint of Their ABC ]
what was this about,
Pebbles 1706
Agree with your comments about ‘Bacardi and Coke’. He fits in well with the talking heads on Glen Beck and Bill O’Reilly.
I wonder what sort of comment Julia Bishop would make if Aussies have been killed in the Israeli commando raid on the Palestine aid boats?
Probably say it serves them right for being there or that they had the wrong counterfeit passports. Damn that Kevin Rudd!
[An Australian journalist and photographer onboard aid boats headed for the Gaza Strip have not been heard from since 10 people were reportedly killed during a clash with Israeli commandos.
A Fairfax spokesman says journalist Paul McGeough and photographer Kate Geraghty last made contact around noon (AEST) today while onboard the MV Samoud.
Israel’s defence force says at least 10 people were killed when commandos stormed a convoy of six ships carrying aid to Gaza. ]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/05/31/2914131.htm
Exactly. Bernadi’s rantings actually make Nick Minchin and Alexander Downer seem reasonable.
My say,
[what was this about,]
The ABC on-line have taken a leaf out of the Noos Ltd play book and are running on-line polls which are blatantly using leading questions that are designed to get a result that favours the Opposition.
Re our 50-50 Newspoll:
the insider comment
yes i had not thought about that it really may be the outsiders.
If Labor loses Hasluck they will probably also lose Swan, which is technically a Labor seat on the new boundaries although it has a sitting Liberal member. (Who is such a non-entity that his name escapes me.) But it’s far too early for this kind of talk. Labor has only just begun to fight!
What did you say to him, Frank?
I’d be amazed if Perth and Fremantle were lost to the Liberals!
At worst, Labor will lose Hasluck, and Brand will be line ball!
Psephos@1812
posted thie ink to the Pollbludger post on Twitter:
http://twitter.com/frankscan65/status/15089931676
[The ABC on-line have taken a leaf out of the Noos Ltd play book and are running on-line polls which are blatantly using leading questions that are designed to get a result that favours the Opposition.]
yes i have seen them do that before on news radio so i rang them and said.
why would you have a question, that you
can not give a yes or no too. the person agreed with me but nothing changed.
I really think people should not bother with those questions did they say how many silly people got conned in to answering a question that is cannot be answered as
yes or no.
write to them and tell them the question doesnt make sence.
or if its news radio ring them
Hopefully nothing bad has happened to those two ABC journalists. For the like of me, I cannot imagine what Mesma would say, if something did.
Excellent general rains.
Frank
I reckon he just read Labor 50-50 in Brand and Westpoll, he is saying Newspoll is the only poll we can trust.
My vegie garden is jumping. Very warm Autumn and excellent rains.
I do hope that Abbott and Rudd do nothing about AGW.
[Hopefully nothing bad has happened to those two ABC journalists. For the like of me, I cannot imagine what Mesma would say, if something did.]
????????????????
This is one of those elections where I would really like Labor to fight dirty. The die has been cast for some time now by the Oppostion and its support structure (eg Murdoch and the corpulent miner).
The way to deal with media, corporate and political bullies is to get stuck into them boots and all.
Shades of Exodus.
SO
[
S.A. government making some good anti-smoking changes.]
You neglected to mention that the SA Govt won the Dirty Ashtray Award this year (yet again) for doing the least of any govt to combat smoking. The Feds scored the best.
BA staff striking repeatedly and for many days at a time…. BA made a loss of $1billion…
It is a challenge connecting these dots.
Just in response to the ABC online poll: yes, it is a bit of a loaded question, but it is just an online poll; nobody actually takes them seriously – too easy to skew.
Trouble is whether there are decent Independents. Mostly there arent.
I’m not voting for the Libs as any endorsement on how they’ve acted in Opposition, I take it more as a vote against the Government than a vote for Tone and his front bench of 60 year olds.
I’m not going to vote FF or Greens ahead of the Libs.
Mesma would probably want proof before she would be prepared to chastise or reprimand the Israelis. Of course, all countries indulge in shooting up aid ships.
[If Gough did quit the party it would be a positive mark for Labor.]
Tell me, The Truth Hurts: when you get your ears examined and your Doctor uses an otoscope to look into your ear canal, does your Doctor always express amazement at being able to see straight through to the other side, or only sometimes?
correct Psephos the campaign proper will seperate the boys from the men.
My say 1821
http://www.smh.com.au/world/more-than-10-killed-as-flotilla-stormed-says-israeli-army-20100531-wq8y.html?autostart=1
Geln I would be shocked if you were to vote for the Greens or Family First
But in my State seat I’ll bet there wont be an Independent (Prahran) so ill either be voting Liberal first or FF or Greens.
I cannot vote for those extremist organisations.
So I am forced to vote for the Libs. Even though they dont deserve my vote.
Hmmm, Australian soldier a victim of heat exhaustion in Afghanistan.
I do hope that Abbott, with his new-found concern for AGW, questions the Rudd Government closely about what it is going to do to protect our soldiers in Afghanistan from AGW.
And therein lies a problem in Australian politics – no credible third force. While the Greens and FF are always claiming to be the next third force, the problem is they appeal to a set ideology. If a third force based on a centrist, “we’ll give our opinion on legislation on a case by case basis” ideology, much like the late Australian Democrats or the UK Liberal Democrats, such a party could succeed.
Psephos @ 1811
Steve Irons is the sitting Lib and as you suggest is not very visible at either a national level or as a local member. Tim Hammond is the Labor candidate and has some local profile. Swan is a little different to Hasluck and even to Brand – more of an emerging cafe culture demographic. At this point Swan is definitely in my ALP column despite the reported 50-50 in Brand. But a lot will depend on if the ALP can sell the mining tax in the west.
Glen
You must be a troubled man to be in such an understandable quandry. Perhaps an informal vote may, in the absence of a worthy independent, be the best way to express your feelings.
BK
[ Oooh! Wipe the floor with him, Maxine. I’m embarrassed to have him as my Senator. He’s easily SA’s worst!
Pebbles, as a fellow croweater, that’s a big call. There’s so much from which to choose.]
We certainly do have an embarras de richess. I have high hopes for Briggs turning out to be as big a knob as Downer.
1772
Chiffley was almost certainly the most socialist PMs in Australian history. He tried to nationalise the Banks in 1947 but the High Court said no in what was arguably a judicially activist decision.
I think even Julie Bishop would baulk at defending Israel on this one. At least I hope she would.
Glen, how about I get the great Danby to come and have a chat with you? He has great powers of persuasion. Half the Liberal party members in Caulfield vote for him.
Pebbles
A “we’ll give our opinion on legislation on a case by case basis” Party is doomed to fail eventually. A political party needs a “manifesto” an ideology a reason for being. Not just “we are not like the other guys and gals”.
OK, guys, predictions for Newpoll. Put your cred on the line.
Here’s mine:
2PP Lab:Lib 49:51.
Primaries: Lab 38, Lib 43, Green 12, Nats 5, Others 2.
PPM Rudd 40; Abbott 33. Undecided: 27.