The West Australian has published a Westpoll survey of 400 voters in the outer southern Perth seat of Brand, held by Kim Beazley from 1996 to 2007 and by Gary Gray thereafter. The two-party vote is said to be 50-50, but it’s hard to square this with primary vote figures of 43 per cent for Labor (3.2 per cent below their result in 2007) and 42 per cent (up 3.4 per cent) for the Liberals. On 2007 preferences it would have been approaching 52-48, pointing to a swing against Labor of 4 per cent. Oddly, we are also told that if the old boundaries were in place the Liberals would be leading 45 per cent to 41 per cent on the primary vote and 52-48 on two-party (I make it 50-50), even though the redistribution has only boosted Labor 0.4 per cent by Antony Green’s estimation. The poll had a typical Westpoll sample of 406, giving it a high margin-of-error of a bit below 5 per cent.
Other findings:
• Fifty-six per cent of respondents oppposed the resources super profits tax, with only 25 per cent supporting it.
• Julia Gillard was found to be preferred over Kevin Rudd as preferred leader, 34 per cent to 31 per cent.
• Thirty-nine per cent said Tony Abbott’s “gospel truth” remark made them think less of him, against 54 per cent who said it made no difference.
• The government received “poor” ratings of 82 per cent poor rating for handling of the insulation program, 81 per cent for asylum seekers as poor (against 14 per cent good) and 60 per cent for climate change policy (against 29 per cent0 good).
• By contrast, and in good news for Julia Gillard, 46 per cent rated the government’s handling of the school hall construction program as good against 43 per cent poor.
• Respondents were split down the middle on the federal government’s health reform package, rated good by 45 per cent and poor by 46 per cent.
[He tried to nationalise the Banks in 1947 ]
As a result of which we spent 23 years in opposition. Lesson learned.
No i choose the vote.
But I will NOT help out any Liberal campaign or handout HTV cards. They dont deserve my support.
I’m surprised I renewed my membership. I put it off for almost 3 months.
I dislike both major political leaders.
I dont care who wins. Either way it will be crap for this country. Both sides are rubbish atm.
I dont care how you slice it or how much many ppl think Rudd is better than Abbott. Both will do a bad job as PM and both dont deserve to be PM in my view.
Dammit Truthy! Each day you keep winning the Dumb Post of the Day Award – give someone else a go!
Adam I walked past his office on Saturday night when out for a tipple on Fitzroy Street 😀
Aristotle@1829
Nah, the Doc’s vision would be blocked by the large lump of Olea laurifolia (South African black ironwood) between Troothy’s ears. This reputedly has the densest wood of any tree, though there is some dispute about this.
[Half the Liberal party members in Caulfield vote for him.]
That wouldnt surprise me one bit.
Danby is at least a right-wing Laborite.
The BP Gulf Oil Extavaganza is being touted as USA’s worst ever ecological disaster. Give me a break. Here are four that have been far worse:
(1) Clearing of the great US forests.
(2) Putting the long- and short- grass prairies to the plough.
(3) The continental-scale hydrology stuff up
(4) The USA contribution to AGW.
99-1 for the ALP
Seriously, probably not much movement. I will be more on the optimistic side and say 51-49 ALP, primaries more or less stay the same.
However I will say this:
if the Coalition improve at all, Truthy/GP will claim that the government is doomed and that us “Labor hacks” are in denial. If it is in any way good for Labor, it’ll be “a rogue/blip” and that us “Labor hacks” shouldn’t get comfortable because it’ll change
Mumble Teasing:
Oops. The Matildas have beaten the North Koreas at football. Does that mean we can expect incoming?
Boer
52:48 to Labor. Primaries ALP 39 Lib/Nat 43 Green 12 Other 6
Glen, just out of curiousity (as per your avatar), did you watch that Churchill movie on ABC1 last night? I must confess I found it rather disappointing…
Glen
[I dont care how you slice it or how much many ppl think Rudd is better than Abbott. Both will do a bad job as PM and both dont deserve to be PM in my view.]
Abbott is Rudd’s biggest asset. And Rudd is Abbott’s greatest asset.
According to Bolt, Rudd will be gone on a month. I’ll give him 10/1 on that happening. He really is hopeless.
[My tip is that Rudd is now finished and will be replaced. I’m guessing this could even occur within four weeks. ]
[Newspoll truck just whizzed past, package fell off. A surprising number in there.]
What would be a surprising number? Either Labor 54 or Libs 54?
ruawake@1857
Well with Matthew Franklin ruling out a 50-50 – I predict the former. and considering Mumble’s WA post the Lib’s won’t be happy 🙂
Glen, I’m sure you’ll be converted by the great Danby’s latest newsletter, of which I had an advance preview, as a graduate of the great Danby’s office. It’s full of good news about all the great things the Rudd government has done for Melbourne Ports, as well as the great Danby’s latest foreign policy achievements, which you will doubtless approve of. After 11 years of empty promises from the Libs, the Jewish schools have got so much money they are about to declare Julia Gillard an honorary Elder of Zion.
If so, can the Labor supporters on here promise to prepare themselves for the worst possible result, just in case? I don’t want any “what’s the point?” attitudes…
TSOP
I actually enjoyed it. But I can see that it didnt go well into the late 30s. It hung about abit in the mid 1930s. Still I liked it 😀
Also the HBO film after this ‘Into the Storm’ with Brendan Gleeson as Winston was good too I thought.
It would be good to have a credible, centrist/moderate, economically conservative political party just in case the majors put up two shocking people for PM.
Jules of Zion
sssh
Palmer reminds me of Augustus Gloop from Willie Wonka & the Chocolate Factory.
I suspect that the Doctors’ Wives won’t like the way Abbott carried on in the House today.
If the poll has the Liberals in front there would be no one to blame but the Governmetn for not putting the foot down.
But as I have repeatable said whilst Abbott might be travelling well at this stage I seriously dealt he can maintain that.
I would have thought Violet as a blueberry would be more apt but hey.
Psephos at 1811:
[ If Labor loses Hasluck they will probably also lose Swan, which is technically a Labor seat on the new boundaries although it has a sitting Liberal member. (Who is such a non-entity that his name escapes me.) ]
Steve Irons. Him and Luke Simpkins can be forgiven for being non-entities because they just got there at exactly the wrong time to be relevant… meanwhile, I’d love to know what Mal Washer does with himself, after a dozen years in parliament. Or Barry Haase. What do they do?
Speaking of which, check this out. Anyone else see a slight problem with referring to Haase as the ‘MP for Durack’? 😉
Danby broke ranks with his own Government on the Isaeli forged passports affair.
That’s his latest foreign policy achievement?
Yeah, that’s what I disliked about it. I would’ve liked to see him during wartime, his years in opposition, his return to #10, his eventual retirement and final years. Mind you, I thought it was going to be a miniseries – I think it would’ve been better served if it were. Nevertheless, good performances all round!
Washer is not too terrible but Haase is simply awful.
Alan Kohler’s finance report on ABC TV Sydney: mining stocks were down, with the government’s advertising campaign
😐
Like the Democrats?
The Victorian Police Officer of the Year is Robbie Noggler. I wonder if he is related to Nobby Roggler.
Tried to get some info out of Mumble:
As someone said earlier. Rudd should Challenge Abbott to a proper debate on the RSPT. Force him to debate facts and proper logic. And later in the day this time too.
TSOP
They could make a 6 part series just about.
Still I recommend finding or hoping for ‘Into the Storm’ being played on the ABC because that was based around his war time exploits.
[That’s his latest foreign policy achievement?]
One among many.
I would like to have seen a thorough examination of the way in which Churchill, with 23 idle divisions sitting in England and the threat of a German invasion of Britain gone, allowed Singapore to fall, and was quite prepared to sacrifice Australia to boot, while
Australians were fighting in North Africa.
How debaclement. How betrayment.
I will allow that Danby is one of the few people in the House for whom I have an unstinting admiration. He is principled, sticks to his principles, and I like his principles.
I believe this is one of the historical arguments in favour of Australia becoming a republic…
Damn. Still 2 hours and 58 minutes until 10.30.
[Like the Democrats?]
The Democrats were left wing populists.
I’m thinking more of ummm…Moderate Party (Sweden), The People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) from (Holland), Fine Gael (Ireland) or Red Tories in Canada.
[Aguirre[
Ah, so we’ve now got that in typing, Aristotle?
Boerwar@1881
Move to WA and you’ll only have to wait till 8.30pm 🙂
Frank
lol.
Whoops , pasted the wrong bit in 1883. It was meant to be about some lovely fella eating not having to eat hats!
They did let the GST through, and the first wave of IR reforms. They lost the plot when Cheryl defected. And when Meg Lees quit after various feuds with NSD. I agree that by the end they were a pale imitation of the Greens.
Boerwar 1878
I just like historical dramatisations. I didn’t mean to turn it political. If I enjoyed a production about Atilla the Hun, it doesn’t mean I support him. (Not that I am comparing Churchill to Atilla)
Glen, I will keep an eye out for “Into The Storm” (or torrent it.)
[I believe this is one of the historical arguments in favour of Australia becoming a republic…]
That the internet is full of wise-after-the-event armchair generals?
Then we’d be in WA 🙁
leftwingpinko@1890
Well visit for Newsweek Nights 🙂
[considering Mumble’s WA post the Lib’s won’t be happy]
What was it about Frank?
How will the 6 laning of the road to the airport go down in Perth? Will the State Govt try to own it?