The West Australian has published a Westpoll survey of 400 voters in the outer southern Perth seat of Brand, held by Kim Beazley from 1996 to 2007 and by Gary Gray thereafter. The two-party vote is said to be 50-50, but it’s hard to square this with primary vote figures of 43 per cent for Labor (3.2 per cent below their result in 2007) and 42 per cent (up 3.4 per cent) for the Liberals. On 2007 preferences it would have been approaching 52-48, pointing to a swing against Labor of 4 per cent. Oddly, we are also told that if the old boundaries were in place the Liberals would be leading 45 per cent to 41 per cent on the primary vote and 52-48 on two-party (I make it 50-50), even though the redistribution has only boosted Labor 0.4 per cent by Antony Green’s estimation. The poll had a typical Westpoll sample of 406, giving it a high margin-of-error of a bit below 5 per cent.
Other findings:
• Fifty-six per cent of respondents oppposed the resources super profits tax, with only 25 per cent supporting it.
• Julia Gillard was found to be preferred over Kevin Rudd as preferred leader, 34 per cent to 31 per cent.
• Thirty-nine per cent said Tony Abbott’s “gospel truth” remark made them think less of him, against 54 per cent who said it made no difference.
• The government received “poor” ratings of 82 per cent poor rating for handling of the insulation program, 81 per cent for asylum seekers as poor (against 14 per cent good) and 60 per cent for climate change policy (against 29 per cent0 good).
• By contrast, and in good news for Julia Gillard, 46 per cent rated the government’s handling of the school hall construction program as good against 43 per cent poor.
• Respondents were split down the middle on the federal government’s health reform package, rated good by 45 per cent and poor by 46 per cent.
[I would like to have seen a thorough examination of the way in which Churchill, with 23 idle divisions sitting in England and the threat of a German invasion of Britain gone, allowed Singapore to fall, and was quite prepared to sacrifice Australia to boot, while
Australians were fighting in North Africa.
How debaclement. How betrayment.]
Despite Keating’s rhetoric on this subject, this is a little unfair. Sending more troops to Singapore would have meant only more POWs for Japan. Singapore fell mainly because it was in fact indefensible from the landward side, and through lack of air cover for the Navy. The whole generation of interwar politicians, in the UK and Australia, and of all parties, were to blame for this. Churchill may have had troops to send (assuming he had the ships to send them in, which he probably didn’t), but he didn’t have planes to spare, and that was the crucial weakness. To say that Churchill deliberately betrayed Australia is completely unfair. He sent the Prince of Wales and Repulse, naval assets which Britain could ill afford to spare, and knowing they would probably be lost without air protection, as the only token of his genuineness.
True there is a good chance ABC will show it since they’ve shown this one.
But yes do a search for it. I assure you it is worth it. It is a very good tele movie.
I would laugh if the Libs won every seat in WA.
Almost like the Canadian Conservative Party winning every seat in Alberta in 2006.
I was thinking more that the ‘beloved’ Empire deserted us when it came to the crunch.
ruawake@1893
Here is your Answer:
Minister:- Simon O’Brien
Subject:- Great Eastern Highway upgrade one step closer
Date:- 31-May-2010
http://www.mediastatements.wa.gov.au/Pages/Results.aspx?ItemID=133600
BH@1892
Read and Smile:
http://mumble.com.au/?p=2345#comments
Mind you the Brits had been fighting the Nazis for their lives alone for almost 3 years.
Anyway we had the Yanks.
From Tim Hammond – ALP Federal Candidate for Swan re Gt Eastern Highay via his Facebook Page:
http://www.facebook.com/timhammond10
I’m a republican, but that is a bit of a stretch for justification to cut ties to the monarchy, considering it happened over 60 years ago and did not involve the current monarch in any way. Let alone the fact the British Empire no longer exists…
[@frankscan65 You wish. You’ll see the real figures on The Australian’s website at 10.30 half a minute ago via web in reply to frankscan65 ]
If Matthew Franklin is saying then it sounds as tho it’s bad for Labor. ‘you wish’! He sounds quite joyous.
Don’t even get me started on the comprehensive set of Churchillian stupidities involved in getting the PoW and the Repulse sunk for nix.
If Singapore was capable of being invaded from the landward side, it was capable of being defended on the landward side. (water availability aside).
A tank division and a couple of well-equipped infantry divisions would have made all the difference on the Malay Peninsula. The Germans showed later in the war exactly what could be done without air cover.
Whether Churchill could have done it is moot, logistically. What is not moot is that he had no intention of doing so.
[I’m a republican, but that is a bit of a stretch for justification to cut ties to the monarchy,]
I find the most compelling argument to be that I want to be a citizen, not a subject.
Verbing gone feral.
Agreed. That and the fact that our government is republican in nature anyway – and that we have a written constitution to prevent totalitarian rule, makes the monarchy obsolete and should be removed.
Weimar Germany had a written constitution but that didnt stop a dictatorship.
Had they still the Kaiser he could have dismissed Hitler.
A Monarch is the best defence against totalitarianism – unless they are also a despot.
Politicians are only be trusted so much TSOP.
[Both will do a bad job as PM and both dont deserve to be PM in my view.]
come on glen we are the only country in the oecd to not have gone in to recession,.
you still have your employment i presume.
I know its hard to admit it, but gee Kevin is a good person i beleive yes he is not able to walk on water, but look at his and his minister credentials,
cannot go past them really have you ever gone to alp web site read all their resume`s
i have and i was very surprised how many have degrees in this and that.
We have a team of professional imo
[Don’t even get me started on the comprehensive set of Churchillian stupidities involved in getting the PoW and the Repulse sunk for nix.]
You can’t have it both ways. Churchill sent them as a political gesture, to show that he wasn’t betraying Australia and the Far East, knowing their strategic weakness. Tom Phillips was a brave sailor but he didn’t believe in air power and he paid for this folly with his ships and his life. I don’t think Churchill can be blamed for that.
[If Singapore was capable of being invaded from the landward side, it was capable of being defended on the landward side. (water availability aside).]
I said it was not defensible, and it wasn’t. You can’t put water availability “aside”. Singapore wasn’t a fortress, it was a city full of civilians with no natural defences and no water supply.
[A tank division and a couple of well-equipped infantry divisions would have made all the difference on the Malay Peninsula.]
I very much doubt that. When have tanks ever been used in jungle warfare? There were virtually no roads or open country in Malaya in 1941.
[The Germans showed later in the war exactly what could be done without air cover.]
The German army, man for man, was the best army the world has ever seen. The British had no troops of comparable quality in 1941.
[The Germans showed later in the war exactly what could be done without air cover.]
Yeah – total, crushing defeat.
My Say how much of that was government policy or the result of people like Sir Humphrey Appleby who actually run the country?
The Elephant in the Room for Abbott – Workchoces:
http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/breaking-news/voters-fear-return-to-work-choices/story-e6frg12u-1225873701170
Many Monarchist arguments for the status quo involve loyalty to the British and our historical ties. Their desertion of us during WWII arguably shows that loyalty to the British is a one way street.
[Don’t even get me started on the comprehensive set of Churchillian stupidities involved in getting the PoW and the Repulse sunk for nix.]
what was the story , something happened that got the americans to join the second world war.
My tip for the ‘unusual number’ – something to do with PPM: maybe how the Liberals voters rank Turnbull in comparison with Abbott….maybe whether Liberal voters more strongly prefer Gillard to Rudd. The net approval/disapproval for Rudd and Abbott are going to be a big focus from now on. If Rudd cannot get his net approval back into the black, he might well be cactus. I’m sure the Labor caucus enjoy being in Government. If Rudd’s numbers are bad enough or Gillard’s are good enough, he may be for the chop.
As for TPP….I think the Liberals will have improved their position by a couple of points. the Asylum-seeker and RSPT issues are vote killers, as is the whole spectacle of the Government becoming engaged in a media-battle with a key industry. (People may well think the Government have a good case to increase taxes on mining, but I am thinking they will be appalled by the open conflict.)
[Humphrey Appleby who actually run the country?]
come on glen you must know that is cynical all gov , have public servant helpers
since the days of the first british parliment, would you not think.
we are dealing here with policies not spin.
but i am not going to list them again for you seems your stuck in a rut.
What part of airpower v navy had Churchill not learned by the time the war started with Japan?
Most of the fighting in Malaya was done on or near roads. One of the reasons why the Japanese movement down the Malay peninsula was their highly successful use of tanks. The Western side of the Malay Peninsula had lots of serviceable roads built for rubber plantations. Tanks were one of the reasons why Slim’s Burma campaign were so successful.
Agree that Singapore was not a fortress. The defence of Singapore on the landward side had to be further up the Malay peninsula.
briefly @ 1914
My bet is that it is Abbott’s personal numbers that have taken a dive – especially his disapproval. Historically a PM can win with a negative nett approval rating leading into a campaign – but an opposition leader can’t. 🙂
We are now 52 hours away from National Andrew Bolt Is A Dickhead Day.
There is no need for bunting to be erected.
It would be nice though if everyone could e-mail their thoughts to Andrew and to his employers and to Barrie Cassidy, on 3rd June.
Thank you for your attention. Normal arguing may now resume.
briefly,
I would be surprised if Peter Brent’s comment related to PPM – he consistently rubishes it as a predictor of elections.
Eratosthenes@1917
Note the time of release – if it was bad for KLabor it would’ve been released by now, and the fact they were still polling Yesterday means it’s either no change, or up for the Govt.
* back in an hour or so
Note what’s being reported about Essential – and it ain’t the 2PP 🙂
William
True. But have a look at the price the Germans exacted from the allies, compared with what the allies exacted from the Japanese on the Malay peninsula. Chalk and cheese.
The Germans fought; by the large, the allies in the Malay Peninsula and Singapore did not. They ran and they retreated. Total killed among the Japanese in the assault on Singapore was less than 2,000. Imagine if they had had to take Singapore from the Germans, air power or no.
Agreed Frank.
Also the fact that Tony Abbott was nowhere to be seen in any of the headlines of the OO this morning but Turnball was front and centre directly rubbishing his leader. Rebuilding the second option perhaps?
Interestingly, when the USA declared independence from Britain, most of its citizens considered themselves British. The very rights that the Americans held dear were, in fact, British rights. They were just wise enough to have them put down in writing. Nevertheless, it wasn’t until about the mid-19th century that Americans considered themselves their own nationality and they’re not British.
As the cheif Sir Humphrey here I must advise that I cannot advisablly agree with your advice, we must review you advice this will then need a panel and a review of its findings.
We will then need to carry out a study and test the findings, then I will provide you with the advice you need, until then I can only advise you that the matter is under consideration.
The arrogance of the Israeli mouthpiece on with Red Kez is astounding – and much in character.
Thanks Psephos I will advise the PM of your where abouts (if he calls)
[Well with Matthew Franklin ruling out a 50-50 – I predict the former. and considering Mumble’s WA post the Lib’s won’t be happy ]
so frank you are saying us 54 or them
is nt mumble a labor person why would he tease us.
[1917
Eratosthenes
briefly @ 1914
My bet is that it is Abbott’s personal numbers that have taken a dive – especially his disapproval. Historically a PM can win with a negative nett approval rating leading into a campaign – but an opposition leader can’t. :)]
I think the numbers for both Abbott and Rudd will likely be very poor. Abbott does not look remotely like an alternative PM, but Rudd’s standing has taken a total bashing too. This is a very unusual situation.
Mumble tends to be leftist but he was no fan of the Latham lead ALP.
Yeah, but to counter that argument, Benito Mussolini served under a monarch and the presence of the Italian monarchy didn’t prevent a fascist regime in Italy, or the Italians siding with Hitler in WWII. Just demonstrating that no system is perfect. However, given the choice of depending on a family of aristocrats or a written social contract, I will take the latter any day.
[no fan of the Latham lead ALP.]
fair enough
BK:
The Arabs haven’t got a leg to stand on. Anyway, the Arab-Islamic world might be allowed a nuclear bomb once they stop hating Israel and not before
well i am not looking going to hide if any of you can find a way of channelling me if it s o,k, then thats good, but i dont want to know.
come on frank say what you think
[The arrogance of the Israeli mouthpiece on with Red Kez is astounding – and much in character.]
His use of the term “useful idiots” was a big mistake, I’m glad Kezza called him on it. Apparently the Australian jouranlists are currently being held in Israeli immigration detention:
[McGeough and Geraghty safe and being processed at Israeli detention cetnre, says Fairfax.]
[1922
Frank Calabrese
Posted Monday, May 31, 2010 at 8:03 pm | Permalink
Note what’s being reported about Essential – and it ain’t the 2PP 🙂
Sydney Mornismh_news smh_news
National: Voters don’t want Work Choices back: Voters won’t like it if the Liberals try to return to workplace law… http://bit.ly/bQvrXg 3 minutes ago via twitterfeed]
Frank you are quite right to highlight this. Abbott is closely associated with this general posture on workplace laws, which will be affecting his net approvals. He has also said “You can’t trust the words that come out of my mouth,” so voters will not be inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt.
But I somehow doubt that it will be strongly featured in Newspoll. The issue has not had a lot of prominence compared with some others.
So apparently Turnbull was all over the front page of the OO today while Abbott was conspicuous by his absence.
Turnbull was also the guest on Sunday Profile on their ABC last night.
Once again News Ltd and their ABC marching in lockstep.
Israel is lucky it didnt murder the 2 aussie journos- the outrage would have been huge
tho murdering at least 10 civilians on the high seas is bad enough
Is Niall Ferguson the only person who is a git, a prat, and a show pony?
1934
How arrogantment.
Cuppa@1939
And note Centre’s comments on the tone of voice used when mentioning the Leader’s by name.