The West Australian has published a Westpoll survey of 400 voters in the outer southern Perth seat of Brand, held by Kim Beazley from 1996 to 2007 and by Gary Gray thereafter. The two-party vote is said to be 50-50, but it’s hard to square this with primary vote figures of 43 per cent for Labor (3.2 per cent below their result in 2007) and 42 per cent (up 3.4 per cent) for the Liberals. On 2007 preferences it would have been approaching 52-48, pointing to a swing against Labor of 4 per cent. Oddly, we are also told that if the old boundaries were in place the Liberals would be leading 45 per cent to 41 per cent on the primary vote and 52-48 on two-party (I make it 50-50), even though the redistribution has only boosted Labor 0.4 per cent by Antony Green’s estimation. The poll had a typical Westpoll sample of 406, giving it a high margin-of-error of a bit below 5 per cent.
Other findings:
• Fifty-six per cent of respondents oppposed the resources super profits tax, with only 25 per cent supporting it.
• Julia Gillard was found to be preferred over Kevin Rudd as preferred leader, 34 per cent to 31 per cent.
• Thirty-nine per cent said Tony Abbott’s “gospel truth” remark made them think less of him, against 54 per cent who said it made no difference.
• The government received “poor” ratings of 82 per cent poor rating for handling of the insulation program, 81 per cent for asylum seekers as poor (against 14 per cent good) and 60 per cent for climate change policy (against 29 per cent0 good).
• By contrast, and in good news for Julia Gillard, 46 per cent rated the government’s handling of the school hall construction program as good against 43 per cent poor.
• Respondents were split down the middle on the federal government’s health reform package, rated good by 45 per cent and poor by 46 per cent.
I see there are references to WW2 – well there are some parallels to this election campaign (well, sort of)
Churchill said,
[Hitler knows that he will have to break us in this island or lose the war.]
It’s the same with the Coalition and Rudd. The only way the Coalition can win the election is to totally destroy Rudd. Which is what they, and Rudd’s enemies in the press, have been trying to do since Dec 2006.
Rudd is under the most pressure he has been since becoming leader of the ALP, and the pressure will only increase.
But he is still the ALP’s best asset, battered as he is, and the Coalition knows it. That’s why they are trying to destroy him.
But, in my view, as the British Isle did in WW2, Rudd won’t be broken and will prevail.
Vera way back at 1502 replying to my say:
[I wonder how the sales of the woman’s weekly are, i wonder any one buys them
my say
I don’t know about regular sales but a while back when they did a story on Therese Rein apparently they almost sold out straight away]
I work in a newsagency and it very much depends who is on the cover of the mag. For example, Chappelle (sp.?) Corby, Jennifer Anniston and Posh Spice (Mrs Beckham) are now ho-hum sales whilst Princess Mary still gets a fair run. What is amusing is that Woman’s Day and New Idea in particular (and sometimes NW) can often have the same “celebrity” on the cover yet the story is totally contrary to the other. Today Fergie was giving her “tell-all, why I did it” (re the News of the World sting) story and in the opposition it was Prince Andrew “she done me wrong, but I still love her”. Do women really read this crap? – sales figures, which are falling by up to 7-8% per annum – suggest not but comments from our customers include “well, it’s something to read with a cup of coffee!”. Curious.
We have certainly cut back on supply, notwithstanding the pressure from the the big three distributors to push the product, and it seems we are not alone in this.
[1939
Cuppa
So apparently Turnbull was all over the front page of the OO today while Abbott was conspicuous by his absence.]
The simplest explanation for this is that Turnbull is newsworthy. Abbott gets a lot of coverage – too much or not enough, it’s hard to say, though I am sick of the sight of him – and Turnbull clearly has an agenda. Maybe he thinks he can roll Abbott and then roll Rudd too. In fact, of course that is what he thinks he can do. He has no self-doubt at all.
[Thanks Psephos I will advise the PM of your where abouts (if he calls)]
Good of you MB, but where has he gone, why does he disappear thus.
The real damage here will be to a key relationship: Israel/Turkey. Even the hardliners will not like that too much.
This is not just a problem for Israel. It is in all our interests that events in Gaza are not allowed to increase the radicalization of Turkey’s muslims.
Why the Isrealis didn’t simply insist that the UN, or some neutral bunch of inspectors, board and inspect the vessals for arms or other warlike contrabrand, I do not know.
The Israelis could also stop their policy of mass punishment of women and kids for the sins of the Hamas crazies. If Christmas Island is bad, try Gaza. The Israelis could also stop lying about not doing this.
So, what we all have is lose/lose. Great. The hardliners on both sides can bask in yet another phyrric victory at the expense of moderates everywhere.
Rank,
Their ABC has been running hard with the “Opposition outrage over government advertising” since Friday night. Three straight days beating the same drum. At what point does an issue cease to be “news” and become agenda campaigning on behalf of the so-called complainant? (rhetorical question only).
[Thanks Psephos I will advise the PM of your where abouts (if he calls)]
MexicanB – don’t wait for the call – dob him in. He’s supposed to be working his butt off to find the newspoll numbers for us
I’ll go 49-51 Lib or Lab with both leaders crashing. Franklin has got me nervous bysaying we wish it would be 50-50.
Aristotle,
[But, in my view, as the British Isle did in WW2, Rudd won’t be broken and will prevail.]
Rudd comes from good British convict stock, on both sides. Howard, Nelson and Turnbull failed to break him.
Abbott’s got no chance.
Laocoon @ 1871
Re Alan Kohler’s comment (also on ABC1 in Brisbane), I got the impression that he said wtte that mining stocks were down because of the Government’s ‘anti-mining advertising campaign’. With no disclaimer about his relevant business interests, as finance or business reporter he did, as you say, certainly connect the two.
In my opinion, that he can state the opposition’s line as ‘fact’ in the national broadcaster’s evening news clearly demonstrates why the Government needs to use our money to pay to advertise the facts about the RSPT.
[1931
mexicanbeemer
Mumble tends to be leftist but he was no fan of the Latham lead ALP.]
That goes for practically everyone who had ever met Latham, including most of the Labor caucus.
[I’ll go 49-51 Lib or Lab with both leaders crashing. Franklin has got me nervous bysaying we wish it would be 50-50.]
Agreed. I’m calling the first big Lib lead of the year – a 52/3ish number.
Breifly
Would the Liberals take to Turnbull again? He burned many bridges and went out in a blaze of ill-feeling. I seem to remember that when he made his “impassioned speech” in support of emissions trading, most other Liberals deserted the chamber, leaving him looking very lonely standing there.
ohoh. I am being moderated. I await my fate.
What did Franklin say, exactly?
[And note Centre’s comments on the tone of voice used when mentioning the Leader’s by name.]
Aristotle – what did you make of Centre’s comments about his newspoll call. The different tone of voice could make a difference to non-rusted ons.
I’m with Cuppa – the last 3 days have been wall to wall Govt. bashing so it will make a difference to the Govt.’s polling. If good things were being reported that would create an upside but there have been none reported for ages.
Boerwar@1955
[Mr Abbott has indicated some support for elements of the Work Choices laws.]
Like scrapping unfair dismissal laws, bringing back individual contracts and barring unions from negotiations. So what elements are left of Workchoices except the name.
[most people think Opposition Leader Tony Abbott will try to bring back such laws.]
[Two-thirds expressed concern at that prospect.]
[Even Liberal voters weren’t totally won over – 62 per cent of them said a Work Choices-style policy would not make them more likely to vote for the coalition.]
Try doing a poll where you asked people about Abbotts and the libs statements re unfair dismissals, individual contracts and unions and then aske them who they are likely to vote for.
[Those surveyed were much more likely to believe the unions over Mr Abbott ]
That is a credibility problem for Abbott.
And notice how quite Howard has been, last we saw of him was when Joe was photographed entering and exiting his rear entrance after talks on the leadership.
Appears Howard and the libs realise how bad they are for each other.
Ari @ 1943
Nicely – if a little grandly – put Ari.
People are predicting a change of leader even if Labor win. The truth is that if Rudd comes through this onslaught and manages to re draw the confidence of voters then he will be a political powerhouse. Particularly if the election results in a senate that has multiple paths for legislation in which case the Libs can be as belligerent as they like and it will just make them look petulant.
“Obirudd, you cannot defeat the power of the Dark Side and Emperor Rupert”
“If you strike me down, Darth Milne I shall become more powerful than you could possibly imagine”
Bum, bum, bum, bum-da-dum, bum-da-dum …etc.
Psephos might be busy using the newspoll numbers to lay some election bets
[What did Franklin say, exactly? ]
Mumble got it too:
[mumbletwits
Newspoll truck just whizzed past, package fell off. A surprising number in there. Tables here at 10:30 http://bit.ly/cO26ir #vroooom]
Rudd got out the whaling legal challenge and had the mining tax ads in Saturday’s paper (apparently as I don’t read them). He also stood up to the perennially unpopular Israel on passports and Julie Bishop stuffed up large.
There were as many good things as bad last week.
Ari wrote:
[The only way the Coalition can win the election is to totally destroy Rudd. Which is what they, and Rudd’s enemies in the press, have been trying to do since Dec 2006.]
What a bloody job. No wonder so few people are attracted to politics.
cuppa, I think Turnbull is anathema to many in the Liberal party. And he lacks the political skills to win over his opponents. But that will not stop him trying. He is the personification of Ambition. A lot of people admire that. But the die-hards conservatives in the Liberal Party will probably not bend to his will a second time.
Do you reckon ‘Nuts and Bolts’ got a heads up to the Newspoll or is he just deluded?
Cuppa
[What a bloody job. No wonder so few people are attracted to politics.]
Exactly. That’s why we are governed by politicians who you would never describe as being the best and brightest unless they are power-mad narcissistics like Turnbull. A fundamental problem of democracy is that it doesn’t select the people you would want to run the country to actually run it.
I know William was a bit coy about this topic but Israel’s latest atrocity has really put it in the sh!t around the globe. This will be big news. I will be interested to hear Rudd’s comments esp as two Australians were on the ships.
[In Europe, condemnation was equally swift.
France said that “nothing can justify” the violence of Israel’s Gaza ship raid, while German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said he was “deeply concerned” about the deaths.
The European Union demanded Israel mount a “full inquiry”.
Greece withdrew from joint military exercises with Israel in protest at the raid, as it summoned Israel’s ambassador to demand an “immediate” report on the safety of about 30 Greeks on board the flotilla.]
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/world/reports-of-15-killed-as-israelis-assault-gaza-relief-ships/story-e6frea9l-1225873704937
Surprising number? I don’t see how that can possibly happen. We’d be prepared, based on what we’ve been seeing the last few weeks, for anything from 53-47 to 47-53. It really can’t be outside that. If it is, I’m crying foul.
Nothing at all has moved the Coalition primary vote. And they’ve thrown everything at us. Given the events of the past couple of weeks – with the Labor bad news all lumped in at the end – you’d expect the best Coalition vote possible without that primary vote movement. And I reckon the worst Labor can do under any circumstances is 48-52. That’s what I think we’ll see tonight.
People seem to love being frightened of stuff. But the GBOSC (Great Big Old Scare Campaign) has come way too early in proceedings. The only way from here for the Coalition is down. The bootstrapping is already at levitation stage.
*back*
The reason I post these little coming-and-going messages is that if I have to leave in the middle of an argument (because, you know, the real world does make occasional demands on my pollbludging time), The boobster accuses me of running away and dodging his brilliant arguments.
[A fundamental problem of democracy is that it doesn’t select the people you would want to run the country to actually run it.]
Diog, it’s time you stop being a plastic doktor and become a philosopher. Like Abbott would say, if democrazy is so good, why nobody is asking for it.
[the matter is under consideration.]
That means you’ve lost the file!
At least have it under active consideration.
BTW shows Niall Ferguson is a legend.
Frank Calabrese
Don’t want to be a party pooper but don’t they normally release the poll around 10.30 pm on Monday nights?
Okay now did you get the numbers 😉
The only thing surprising given last week would be a Lib lead so I’ll go with LNP 52-ALP 48.
Kuwait had an MP on the flotilla.
[Kuwait’s parliament speaker condemned the raid on the flotilla, which was carrying 16 Kuwaitis including an MP, as a “heinous Israeli crime”, as the cabinet prepared for an emergency meeting.]
Dee@1975
Yes, and that will be the case – the 8.30pm is the WA Time cos of the 2 hour Time Difference – and if it qwas going to be so bad for the Govt, it would’ve been released last night or by now.
[Yes, and that will be the case – the 8.30pm is the WA Time cos of the 2 hour Time Difference – and if it qwas going to be so bad for the Govt, it would’ve been released last night or by now.]
You sound worried Frank lol!
Glen I don’t lose files 😉
Diog:
[ A fundamental problem of democracy is that it doesn’t select the people you would want to run the country to actually run it.]
How dismally democracy has failed us when an unstable, cold extremist like Abbott can get to within striking distance of national leader.
‘A surprising number’ could mean anything. It could be a PPM figure, or perhaps they asked about preferred opposition leaders, or they did a ‘best able to manage issues’ poll…
I seem to recall an instance when Newspoll showed a big jump for the Dark Side and the results were not released early.
Cuppa
That is so true. I feel your pain.
There is only one thing worse than hearing Prime Minister Abbott…Deputy Prime Minister Bishop. Uggghhhhhh!
You say the dark side now be strong for the force is strong.
Dont worry Wayne Swan will be deputy under Gillard. Ugggghhhhh!!!
LOL JB!
Johnny B
I think it would actually be deputy PM Truss (I think that is his name)
Jules v Julia
Bring it ON
Trust Abbott Truss
sssshhh now that would be bemusing
NOOOOOOO!
I can think of at least 5 WA MPs that shouldnt have their job, that’s 5 potential Ministers we’re missing out on.
It frustrates me to no end!
Mexi
Bring back Ando! Bring back Ando!