Westpoll: 50-50 in Brand

The West Australian has published a Westpoll survey of 400 voters in the outer southern Perth seat of Brand, held by Kim Beazley from 1996 to 2007 and by Gary Gray thereafter. The two-party vote is said to be 50-50, but it’s hard to square this with primary vote figures of 43 per cent for Labor (3.2 per cent below their result in 2007) and 42 per cent (up 3.4 per cent) for the Liberals. On 2007 preferences it would have been approaching 52-48, pointing to a swing against Labor of 4 per cent. Oddly, we are also told that if the old boundaries were in place the Liberals would be leading 45 per cent to 41 per cent on the primary vote and 52-48 on two-party (I make it 50-50), even though the redistribution has only boosted Labor 0.4 per cent by Antony Green’s estimation. The poll had a typical Westpoll sample of 406, giving it a high margin-of-error of a bit below 5 per cent.

Other findings:

• Fifty-six per cent of respondents oppposed the resources super profits tax, with only 25 per cent supporting it.

• Julia Gillard was found to be preferred over Kevin Rudd as preferred leader, 34 per cent to 31 per cent.

• Thirty-nine per cent said Tony Abbott’s “gospel truth” remark made them think less of him, against 54 per cent who said it made no difference.

• The government received “poor” ratings of 82 per cent poor rating for handling of the insulation program, 81 per cent for asylum seekers as poor (against 14 per cent good) and 60 per cent for climate change policy (against 29 per cent0 good).

• By contrast, and in good news for Julia Gillard, 46 per cent rated the government’s handling of the school hall construction program as good against 43 per cent poor.

• Respondents were split down the middle on the federal government’s health reform package, rated good by 45 per cent and poor by 46 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,177 comments on “Westpoll: 50-50 in Brand”

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  1. Laocoon

    You are right. That would even be worse. Sloppy Joe as Treasurer! At least he’d remove the GST on pies.

  2. These were the Questions that Centre was asked:

    Centre@1116

    Country Kid and BH,

    That was the impression that I received. I can only speak of the survey that I participated in and no one elses.

    After three questions on federal politics, the questioning moved to state politics.

    Which party would I vote for?

    Satisfied or dissatisfied for Rudd?
    ” ” ” ” Abbott?

    Preferred PM Rudd or Abbott?

  3. [The only way the Coalition can win the election is to totally destroy Rudd. Which is what they, and Rudd’s enemies in the press, have been trying to do since Dec 2006.]

    I remember Downer right from the start of Kev’s leadership saying that he was a fraud and would be found out to be fake. Downer and Abbott relentlessly played on that and kept saying when Rudd starts to fall he will fall hard. They haven’t let up for nearly 3.5 years and they’ve been helped by their limitednoos mates.

    We think Obama’s got it hard with that redneck Fox mob – well I reckon that Kev has had it just as hard and he just has to stay in there punching back.

  4. I seem to recall an instance when Newspoll showed a big jump for the Dark Side and the results were not released early.

    And also one where Shanahan even went on LL and it was actually good the ALP.

  5. I can’t recall the polls being published early since the ALP began heading south althought Jack the Insider said their poll was due out last Tuesday which didn’t eventuate.

  6. JB and Bronny as Speaker or Tuckey 😀

    Oh geez. Oh geez.

    The thing is, I can see Abbott appointing Bronny as speaker. (he is that wacko)

  7. [Well we might laugh as it could bloody well happen.]

    They’d be no more a laughing stock than the current Government JB.

    Face it we have a terrible choice between Dumb and Dumber at this election.

  8. JB I liked how the Coalition front benchers all tried to stand up but then sat down as Jenkins wasnt accepting points of order by then lol. Jenkins was pissed!

  9. [The reason I post these little coming-and-going messages is that if I have to leave in the middle of an argument…]
    We thought it was so we knew when to rise.

  10. And also one where Shanahan even went on LL and it was actually good the ALP.

    Shortly after this anomaly Shanners was taken away, tortured, given shock therapy and thoroughly re-indoctrinated in the ways of the dark side.

    He has yet to relapse although the forces of darkness keep a vigilant eye on him.

  11. [It could be a pie led recovery for the global economy.]
    Clearly there the tea baggers in the US would need to get some changes going there. Obama looks like he has never eaten a pie in his life – clearly not *real* leadership material

  12. From Mumble 🙂

    # Peter Brent mumbletwits

    @frankscan65 The primary votes all add up to about 100. #sshh less than a minute ago via web in reply to frankscan65

  13. They’d be no more a laughing stock than the current Government JB.

    Laughing stock? Why – what have they done that has actually been terrible?

    Sure they didn’t bring in the ETS – but that defeat has a fair few fathers.

    They haven’t been mired in corruption scandals ala NSW or the UK.

    They haven’t made silly appointments like Vandstone to Italy

    They haven’t caused a run on the dollar or anything similar.

    They haven’t divulged secret intelligence information.

    Sure you may not agree with their polices, but laughing stock? Seriously?

  14. I liked Kevin Andrews. He was a tough scary basterd. I’m sure he was as biased as Jenkins but he at least commanded respect unlike subsequent speakers.

    I shook his hand at Murdoch Uni many moons ago.

  15. Glen at 1992:

    [ NOOOOOOO!

    I can think of at least 5 WA MPs that shouldnt have their job, that’s 5 potential Ministers we’re missing out on.

    It frustrates me to no end! ]

    Lemme guess: Bishop, Tuckey, Jensen, Randall, Keenan? They’re the ones I’d scrub. Tuckey may lose to the Nationals and Randall to Labor, so there’s two gone. Your mob need to work on the others. 😉

  16. I’m wondering if this “surprising number” might be the Coalition pulling ahead of Labor on the question of “who is the best to handle health/education”. Given the sustained “school halls” beatup, I personally wouldn’t be surprised at the latter.

  17. Bah.

    Bishop
    Randal
    Hasse
    Tuckey
    Washer
    + Jensen he’s rubbish

    Keenan is a future Minister IMHO but he holds a tough swinging seat. He got shafted because he backed Turnbull.

  18. itsthevibe@2022

    I’m wondering if this “surprising number” might be the Coalition pulling ahead of Labor on the question of “who is the best to handle health/education”. Given the sustained “school halls” beatup, I personally wouldn’t be surprised at the latter.

    But that wasn’t asked as per this:

    Frank Calabrese@1995

    These were the Questions that Centre was asked:

    Centre@1116

    Country Kid and BH,

    That was the impression that I received. I can only speak of the survey that I participated in and no one elses.

    After three questions on federal politics, the questioning moved to state politics.

    Which party would I vote for?

    Satisfied or dissatisfied for Rudd?
    ” ” ” ” Abbott?

    Preferred PM Rudd or Abbott?

  19. Laocoon

    As a bonus, Joe will be giving away free tomato sauce sachets during the election campaign. I reckon the Big O is more of a sausage roll man.

    Glen

    Can’t agree with you on Andrews. Absolute dill. The Liberal Party’s Fielding. What am I saying? Fielding is the Liberal Party’s Fielding.

  20. The last Coalition Speaker who commanded any respect was Ian Sinclair. Andrew and especially Hawker were weak, partisan and subservient to Howard. Jenkins is annoying because he talks too much, but he does command some respect on both sides.

  21. True Kevin Andrew’s ability to stuff was extremely scary.

    Was there a portfolio that he was not a flop in.

  22. It’s tradition!

    Plus shouldnt they wear a wig too?

    John Bercow in the UK doesnt wear anything academic so much for a Tory!

  23. It’s truly the stuff of nightmares. Abbott and the Unworthies sitting on the Treasury benches in the event of a GFC MK II. Abbott, who’s “bored” by economics. Sloppy Hockey who gets millions confused with billions. Bishop, who holds in her cranium a photocopy of a brain. Truss, a yodeling yokel from Hat Town. Joyce, the Bjelke Petersen protege. God help us!

  24. It is funny how much Jenkins hates the standing orders but Jenkins is biased as much as Andrew and Hawker.

    And yet he tells Rudd and others to “brings their answer to a conclusion” I never heard such words uttered by Andrews or Hawker.

  25. If Labor were more competent you wouldnt need to be so worried this time around.

    The bad thing is that ppl dont vote in Oppositions they vote out Governments.

  26. Andrew at least warned and threw out Coalition MPs as far as I can remember (Hawker didnt mind).

    Whenever he says “brings their answer to a conclusion” he’s doing it because he knows the Minister is full of BS and not answering the question.

  27. The Franfurt Standard as it applies to fragmented fiscal entities…..this is the daily breakfast menu in Europe. It is the first time I have seen France mentioned as being at risk of losing its AAA rating. Merde alors!

    The problems in Europe are certainly profound and must sooner or later result in sovereign defaults and banking failures with further dire consequences for credit markets.

    http://www.eurointelligence.com/

    [Daily Morning Newsbriefing
    Fitch’s downward revision on Spain adds pressure on government
    31.05.2010

    Zapatero’s approval rating collapsed over his crisis management; Spanish government prepares labour market reform package lacking an agreement with trade unions and employers federations; Fitch Rating downgraded Spanish sovereign debt to AA+ triggering a fall in stock markets; French budget minister admits that France will face a challenge to keep AAA rating; Wolfgang Schäuble prepares Germans for austerity measures including tax increases; Italian austerity plan provokes outcry from regions and the culture minister; French government explores new ways on how to sell economic government to the Germans; Wolfgang Munchau argues why a depreciating euro will not help the Eurozone, and will only aggravate its internal imbalances; Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi critised Angela Merkel for dramatising the situation to get parliamentary approval for the German contribution to the Greek rescue; Jim Hamilton argues that global uncertainty cannot reduced to Europe alone; The Flemish and the Wallonians, meanwhile, cannot even agree on the colour of the Belgian number plates.]

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