Westpoll: 50-50 in Brand

The West Australian has published a Westpoll survey of 400 voters in the outer southern Perth seat of Brand, held by Kim Beazley from 1996 to 2007 and by Gary Gray thereafter. The two-party vote is said to be 50-50, but it’s hard to square this with primary vote figures of 43 per cent for Labor (3.2 per cent below their result in 2007) and 42 per cent (up 3.4 per cent) for the Liberals. On 2007 preferences it would have been approaching 52-48, pointing to a swing against Labor of 4 per cent. Oddly, we are also told that if the old boundaries were in place the Liberals would be leading 45 per cent to 41 per cent on the primary vote and 52-48 on two-party (I make it 50-50), even though the redistribution has only boosted Labor 0.4 per cent by Antony Green’s estimation. The poll had a typical Westpoll sample of 406, giving it a high margin-of-error of a bit below 5 per cent.

Other findings:

• Fifty-six per cent of respondents oppposed the resources super profits tax, with only 25 per cent supporting it.

• Julia Gillard was found to be preferred over Kevin Rudd as preferred leader, 34 per cent to 31 per cent.

• Thirty-nine per cent said Tony Abbott’s “gospel truth” remark made them think less of him, against 54 per cent who said it made no difference.

• The government received “poor” ratings of 82 per cent poor rating for handling of the insulation program, 81 per cent for asylum seekers as poor (against 14 per cent good) and 60 per cent for climate change policy (against 29 per cent0 good).

• By contrast, and in good news for Julia Gillard, 46 per cent rated the government’s handling of the school hall construction program as good against 43 per cent poor.

• Respondents were split down the middle on the federal government’s health reform package, rated good by 45 per cent and poor by 46 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,177 comments on “Westpoll: 50-50 in Brand”

Comments Page 15 of 17
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  1. The mining companies are running their ad’s heavy on TV here in North Queensland.

    The ad’s are to the point, clear and concise. Points out that the GBNT on miners will affect those holding super, jobs, industry, everyone.

  2. is there a possibility you could be worred about nothing
    considering the morgan poll but was that done the week before it was i think
    but what about essential 54 to them sounds like big jump

    if it was all bad i would think it would of been here this morning.

  3. [John Bercow in the UK doesnt wear anything academic so much for a Tory!]
    Bercow is an amazing case. I believe he is the first Jew to be speaker, and early in the last term it was rumoured that he was going to defect to Labour. Apparently only a dozen Tory’s voted to make him speaker, he was elected thanks to Labour MPs voting for him.

  4. What on earth are you lot doing talking about those pathetic bunch of haters taking over the role of Govt.

    Howard was behind in the polls for a few elections and pulled ahead. Labor will too even tho I can feel Franklin gloating. No matter what Possum says about the OO not having an effect I’m sure it permeates every part of the media because the rest just copy what the Murdoch mob say.

    Any country that has more than 70% of its media tied up in one bundle is bonkers.

  6. It’s truly the stuff of nightmares. Abbott and the Unworthies sitting on the Treasury benches in the event of a GFC MK II. Abbott, who’s “bored” by economics. Sloppy Hockey who gets millions confused with billions. Bishop, who holds in her cranium a photocopy of a brain. Truss, a yodeling yokel from Hat Town. Joyce, the Bjelke Petersen protege. God help us!

    Yup. Which is why, more than ever, we need to work hard at preventing Taliban Tony et al. from getting anywhere near the Treasury benches!

  7. BH you and i are supposed to be hiding under the bed.

    now what if it is the opposition frank did seem to think that

  8. The network news director for Prime TV is John Rudd.

    Funny how I’ve never heard the name before, and now we have Kev I see the name Rudd appearing all over the place.

  11. i never thougth we would get like the us and thre republican campaign but well its seems just like that re the palin thing

  14. Graeme Morris on Agenda today said that there is no need for government advertising to counter the miners’ campaign – Rudd can front the media any time he wants.
    Yeah, sure. The OO would summarise the government’s argument in great detail.

  15. If Abbott wants frank and fearless advice he would keep Ken Henry. If he wants a lapdog he should sack him.

  16. confessions@2051

    The network news director for Prime TV is John Rudd.

    Funny how I’ve never heard the name before, and now we have Kev I see the name Rudd appearing all over the place.

    John rudd was the former News Director for Both Seven *& Nine in Perth during the 80’s & 90’s and later was News Director for 7 Nationally.

  18. [Plus shouldnt they wear a wig too?]
    Labour speakers don’t wear all the ridiculous ceremonial garb.

    In S.A. it is traditional that the ceremonial garb still be worn for at least the first sitting day. However, when Peter Lewis became Speaker in 2002, he insisted on wearing the wig every day. Well, it was something like 50 years old, so it promptly started to fall apart. Lewis insisted that the S.A. Parliament buy a new one, which cost something like $15,000.

  19. Truthy of course the changes are going to effect super and that is why the super sector including leading providers of super are supportive of the proposed reforms.

  22. Truthy, read and digest :

    Bernard Keane BernardKeane

    Dear @MiningStrong – full steam ahead in the Pilbara: http://bit.ly/cHEY1R despite the RSPT 4 minutes ago via TweetDeck Retweeted by you and 2 others

  23. Can I remind you nervous nellies that this is ONE poll?

    If it really is a surprise, one way or the other, then by definition it is highly suspect and – if other polls don’t support it – by definition an outlier.

    Sorry to be a wet blanket (and if it’s a good poll for Labor, obviously I’m going to bask in it, outlier or not) but it seems that things are getting a bit ridiculously tense here.

  26. The ad’s are to the point, clear and concise. Points out that the GBNT on miners will affect those holding super, jobs, industry, everyone.

    Hmmmm

    The big miners may be raging against the proposed resources tax, but it’s still business as usual in the booming Pilbara where the plans aren’t expected to result in significant losses of future production.

    Since May 2, when the federal government announced plans for what it labels a 40 per cent super profits mining tax, Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Fortescue and others have made no changes to development schedules that collectively will add 200 million tonnes more for export by the middle of the decade.

    The closest thing to a cancellation was a pair of projects proposed by Fortescue penciled in for later in the decade, pending the company’s ability to raise the $US15 billion ($17.7 billion) development cost.

    If anything, it’s full-steam ahead to supply China’s ravenous appetite for iron ore imports – which rose more than 41 per cent in 2009 to 628.34 tonnes from a year earlier.

     http://www.theage.com.au/business/full-steam-ahead-in-the-pilbara–despite-tax-clash-20100531-wqeb.html 

    Gotta love truth in advertising…

  27. 2067 Psephos
    Posted Monday, May 31, 2010 at 9:31 pm | Permalink
    My Say – what I think about what?

    the poll

  28. [Do you think Prime Minister Abbott would sack Ken Henry 😀 ???]
    Why should he? If you listen to Henry in Senate estimates he is obvious he has more economic nous than all the Liberals and Nationals put together.

  30. [If it really is a surprise, one way or the other, then by definition it is highly suspect and – if other polls don’t support it – by definition an outlier.]

    take note of where the votes go to remember that one that the votes went to the
    nationals , well there is not many national areas and that was mmm

  32. The bad thing is that ppl dont vote in Oppositions they vote out Governments.

    Not quite. A change of government happens in Australia if two of the following occur:

    1. The government has been in power far too long and become stale
    2. The government has become very corrupt or massively ineffective
    3. The opposition have a message and a leader that give the impression they are ready to run things.
    4. The state of society and/or the economy is in such a dire situation that change is necessary

    Which, by my understanding, hasn’t. In case anyone thinks I am making this up, I have used this simple test for a few years now, and has been effective in testing the survival of a government.

  33. [… Prime Minister Abbott … ]

    If he were to get in, at the end of his tenure he would go down in history as the most hated Liberal leader ever.

  38. Worse than Howard?
    Worse than McMahon?
    Worse than Fraser?

    If he did it’d only be for 1 term cuppa 😀 that’d be enough.

  41. [I am not sure if Abbott would be worst than McMahon, Bruce or Hughes.
    McMahon was merely incompetent – our Tone is nasty.

  42. Abbott might be nasty but does that make him worst than the three I listed and consider to be the worst three PM”s this country has had.

  43. [Worse than Howard?
    Worse than McMahon?
    Worse than Fraser?]

    He is more extreme (and, I suggest, unstable) than all the above. People would despise a right wing sociopath if he got the top job.

  44. [Abbott might be nasty but does that make him worst than the three I listed and consider to be the worst three PM’’s this country has had.]
    For the sake of our country I hope we never know.

  46. Ah Stanley Melbourne 😀

    My Top 10 PMs

    1. Menzies
    2. Howard
    3. Curtin
    4. Lyons
    5. Gorton
    6. Chifley
    7. Whitlam
    8. Hughes
    9. Holt
    10. Deakin

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