Westpoll: 50-50 in Brand

The West Australian has published a Westpoll survey of 400 voters in the outer southern Perth seat of Brand, held by Kim Beazley from 1996 to 2007 and by Gary Gray thereafter. The two-party vote is said to be 50-50, but it’s hard to square this with primary vote figures of 43 per cent for Labor (3.2 per cent below their result in 2007) and 42 per cent (up 3.4 per cent) for the Liberals. On 2007 preferences it would have been approaching 52-48, pointing to a swing against Labor of 4 per cent. Oddly, we are also told that if the old boundaries were in place the Liberals would be leading 45 per cent to 41 per cent on the primary vote and 52-48 on two-party (I make it 50-50), even though the redistribution has only boosted Labor 0.4 per cent by Antony Green’s estimation. The poll had a typical Westpoll sample of 406, giving it a high margin-of-error of a bit below 5 per cent.

Other findings:

• Fifty-six per cent of respondents oppposed the resources super profits tax, with only 25 per cent supporting it.

• Julia Gillard was found to be preferred over Kevin Rudd as preferred leader, 34 per cent to 31 per cent.

• Thirty-nine per cent said Tony Abbott’s “gospel truth” remark made them think less of him, against 54 per cent who said it made no difference.

• The government received “poor” ratings of 82 per cent poor rating for handling of the insulation program, 81 per cent for asylum seekers as poor (against 14 per cent good) and 60 per cent for climate change policy (against 29 per cent0 good).

• By contrast, and in good news for Julia Gillard, 46 per cent rated the government’s handling of the school hall construction program as good against 43 per cent poor.

• Respondents were split down the middle on the federal government’s health reform package, rated good by 45 per cent and poor by 46 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,177 comments on “Westpoll: 50-50 in Brand”

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  9. Here we go again. Motion for no confidence moved, and a whole bunch of waffle based around the erroneous idea of ‘national emergency’.

  10. Well, really Abbott is moving a motion to suspend standing orders so that he can then move the motion of no confidence.

  12. I can see where this is leading. Abbott wants to derail the Government attack. The only problem with this is it now gives Rudd an even better opportunity to slam them and go on the front foot against the mining lobby.

    Talk about own goals. This will I think, be classed as the beginning of the end for Abbott’s aspirations for PM.

    Ton’s almost getting hysterical. Luv it! 😉

  13. sound like the usual thing, so whats tone up to day.

    some sort of cencure motion.

    i wonder who wrote tone speech,
    TONE DOES NOT EXPALIN ANYTHING YEt could not even tell reporers at the door what he would do re advertising lol

  17. William

    [A government advertising program for WorkChoices was initiated before it was introduced into parliament (on 2 November 2005)?]

    Yep

    [On 26 May 2005, the Prime Minister, the Hon. John Howard MP, announced to the House of Representatives that the Government intended to propose amendments to federal legislation on industrial relations.[108] According to the Prime Minister, the proposed legislative changes would include: changes to arrangements for setting minimum wages and conditions; changes to processes for making both individual and collective workplace agreements; changes to the role of the Australian Industrial Relations Commission; amendment of unfair dismissal laws; and, progress towards ‘a national industrial relations system’ in place of the mixture of federal and State legislation now applicable in most parts of Australia.[109]

    4.9 At the time of the announcement, no bill had been introduced into the Parliament to give effect to the legislative changes foreshadowed by the Prime Minister.

    4.10 In response to the Prime Minister’s announcement, the Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU) organised a national campaign opposing the proposed legislation. This campaign included public rallies, as well as advertisements in the print media and on television, radio and the internet. These advertisements were funded privately, by the ACTU, private organisations and individuals.[110]

    4.11 The government responded to this campaign in public speeches and statements in defence of the proposals. Then, from 9 July 2005 in the print media and from 23 July in radio broadcasts, government advertisements began to appear supporting the proposals.[111] These advertisements were funded, not by employers’ industrial organisations equivalent to the ACTU nor by private businesses or political parties, but from taxpayer funds.]
    http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/committee/fapa_ctte/completed_inquiries/2004-07/govtadvertising/report/c04.htm

  21. Why do we even bother with Question Time when it is in the Standing Orders that it is allowed to be abused by members.

    Why bloody bother at all!

    I’m inclined to agree actually. For oppositions, it has become just a constant attempt at “gotcha!” moments whereas, for governments, an excuse to just peddle the same pre-written rhetoric. While it’s true that parliament has never been a polite, civil, Q&A session (no legislature ever is), in the last 20-30 years, it has become nothing more than a session for both sides to out-propaganda eachother!

    Our Parliament is a disgrace and so is Jenkins!

    I disagree to an extent. Jenkins is actually fitting the mold of the modern Australian HoR Speaker to a T. One of the unfortunate symptoms of our “Washminster” system, is we have a speaker who is responsible for making sure the chamber follows the rules (like the UK) but serves his party’s interests and whose reelection to the speakership and even his seat hinges on serving the party’s interests (like the US)

  22. I’d think it would be “end” of Abboots credibility, but he would have had to have some for that to be the case.

  27. SNIP: I warned you about this the other day. Another comment of this kind and you’ll get a red card – The Management.

  31. [ Our Parliament is a disgrace and so is Jenkins!]

    My only criticism is that he is too accommodating to the Abbottoirs.

  32. Uh ohh! Joe trying to talk about numbers. That automatically puts him on shaky ground as he doesnt really understand those.

  33. A Motion of No confidence? What, have some Labor MPs defected without me knowing or something?

    Or is Tony just showboating again with his dangerously extremist “I swear I’ll burn it all down!” subversive rhetoric?

  34. my say #1554

    Clive palmer is the proprietor of the Queensland National-Liberal Party! lol

    most australians do not get the connection i would think

    Similar to what Anna Bligh said outside the Parliament before the last election wtte, Likes football, buys a football team; likes politics, buys a ….(his ?18 yo son also stood for the LNP) and he’s suing her for it. It was widely reported on national news & blogs at the time.

    Since Mr Clive “Likes politics, buys a …” Palmer is, according to the media, is doing the same in WA – also widely reported – at least the two major Mining states understand the reference.

    PS. Did enjoy Big Lins’s demolition, and Fergo’s – more life in him than usual!

    PPS Love the Oppo’s habit of asking Dorothy Dixers – questions for which the answerer has a prepared response. Must think they’re still in government. DOH!

  37. Why are the Liberals using the silly argument that the mining companies are paying a greater proportion of company tax? Do the Liberals think they should get a company tax cut because they are making bigger profits and there are more mines? That would be insane.

  38. [For oppositions, it has become just a constant attempt at “gotcha!” moments whereas, for governments, an excuse to just peddle the same pre-written rhetoric.]

    I think it was the previous clerk of the Senate who said that QT should be completely revamped because of the enormous amount of time wasted by ministers’ departments preparing for any imaginable question.

  40. Joe is going mental; makes Abbott seem relaxed

    but imacca, is this not always true with big Joe?

    [That automatically puts him on shaky ground]

  44. TheTruthHurts

    Can the Labor supporters please tell us what the emergency was to unlock these taxpayer dollars?

    We did. Yesterday.

    Now we know you only read your own opinion!

  49. And how much is the Australian public, through taxation deductions, paying for the mining companies’ political donation of the blanket anti-government media campaign?

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