The West Australian has published a Westpoll survey of 400 voters in the outer southern Perth seat of Brand, held by Kim Beazley from 1996 to 2007 and by Gary Gray thereafter. The two-party vote is said to be 50-50, but it’s hard to square this with primary vote figures of 43 per cent for Labor (3.2 per cent below their result in 2007) and 42 per cent (up 3.4 per cent) for the Liberals. On 2007 preferences it would have been approaching 52-48, pointing to a swing against Labor of 4 per cent. Oddly, we are also told that if the old boundaries were in place the Liberals would be leading 45 per cent to 41 per cent on the primary vote and 52-48 on two-party (I make it 50-50), even though the redistribution has only boosted Labor 0.4 per cent by Antony Green’s estimation. The poll had a typical Westpoll sample of 406, giving it a high margin-of-error of a bit below 5 per cent.
Other findings:
• Fifty-six per cent of respondents oppposed the resources super profits tax, with only 25 per cent supporting it.
• Julia Gillard was found to be preferred over Kevin Rudd as preferred leader, 34 per cent to 31 per cent.
• Thirty-nine per cent said Tony Abbott’s “gospel truth” remark made them think less of him, against 54 per cent who said it made no difference.
• The government received “poor” ratings of 82 per cent poor rating for handling of the insulation program, 81 per cent for asylum seekers as poor (against 14 per cent good) and 60 per cent for climate change policy (against 29 per cent0 good).
• By contrast, and in good news for Julia Gillard, 46 per cent rated the government’s handling of the school hall construction program as good against 43 per cent poor.
• Respondents were split down the middle on the federal government’s health reform package, rated good by 45 per cent and poor by 46 per cent.
Thanks Tony Abbott. You could’ve handled the insulation deaths saga a lot more tastefully and just brought the abuses to the government’s attention. Instead, like the immoral little sociopath you are, you just rubbed your hands in glee and decided to paint every single insulation worker in Australia subsidised by the scheme as a pawn in Kevin Rudd’s quest to murder Australians – just to get some political mileage.
Those 3500 job losses are on your hands! I hope you have a solution for them (I’m sure you do, and I am sure they involve labour camps or poorhouses, or something as equally inhumane!)
rosa
Yeah I’d like to see that too. My Insider days are over. Love the Milne piece today. I managed to see a bit of parliament today and sure enough or the Lib questions came from The Australian. Conversely, The Australian articles came from the Libs. Either way, the causality is suspect.
Injuddstree, does #1684 actually mean anything?
[Newspoll published in tomorrow’s Oz to be 50-50]
That’s kinda boring really.
[Their ABC assisting the Govt in Exile aka The Libs:]
Look at the results!
Yeah. Is that a prediction, or do you have inside knowledge?
66% against the govt?
Vera – how about Kev’s mate Twiggy-
[Now Bloomberg reports that Poseidon Nickel, which is chaired by Forrest, is in China looking for finance to help the company restart production in Western Australia.
“Poseidon Nickel Ltd, an Australian exploration company chaired by billionaire Andrew Forrest, is in talks with a number of potential Chinese investors to fund restart of mine production within two years.
“We are talking to investors and off-take parties in China about the investment required to get us to go to production,” said David Singleton, chief executive officer of the Perth-based company, in an interview in Shanghai.]
http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/05/31/forrest-has-a-bit-each-way-on-chinas-role/#comments
vera@1700
Yep, despite what the patron saint of Their ABC says 🙂
[Hi All,
Been busy looking after my Son today, but I just managed to send this off to the Insiders.
Have no clue what’s happened today in the world of politics. Hope to catch up with the comments later on.
I am writing to voice my concerns over yesterday’s episode of Insiders. I have watched this show religiously for several years and it has always been a Sunday morning institution at our place.]
Did you rage type it out on your typewriter as per the chaser?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHrd-sAMAiY&feature=related
BH
That doesn’t surprise me. in that SMH story they said
What better place to go to raise funds than China aye? 😉
Truthy 1703
Haven’t seen that one, but funny. No rage, just dishing it back after the piss weak peformance of yesterday.
Is Agenda always like this? I don’t watch it very much, so I’m getting a bit of a shock.
Two themes keep coming up – broken promise, and nobody’s listening to Rudd. Nothing else is getting a look in at the moment.
This Graham guy, whoever he is, just sits there shaking his head when he’s not talking. He wants to characterise the big-mining lobby as seven people being picked on by the government.
[Newspoll published in tomorrow’s Oz to be 50-50]
Is that a prediction or the real poll result?
[This Graham guy…]
John Howard’s former Chief of Staff.
[Haven’t seen that one, but funny. No rage, just dishing it back after the piss weak peformance of yesterday.]
If the ABC have the left upset, it probably means they are unbiased.
Remember all the criticism the ABC got for criticising Howard all the time, looks like Rudd’s getting his serve now. Tax dollars well spent imho.
News Ltd should shoulder most of the responsibility for the 3,500 job losses
TheTruthHurts
1. Go back and read the last thread – Thursday or Friday, from memory.
2. The Emergency has been well canvassed – go back & read that too.
3. “I think Rudd’s making the rules up as he goes along, he certainly isn’t sticking by them” NOT TRUE.
I did make an error in attributing the Review to the wrong person. It’s the Alan HAWKE review Independent Review of Government Advertising Arrangements, not the Henry. There’s a summary Summary of Hawke Recommendations and Government Response. Do what I did – type them into Google & you’ll get the full pdf link.
4. * The Document’s pdf is dated 12 February 2010;
*There’s a Media Release on 31 March 2010 http://www.smos.gov.au/media/2010/mr_202010.html
*Google lists comments (ABC Radio) on this on 9 April 2010; so it’s been around for 3-4 months.
*I can’t find any Coalition response and there’s little Google-listed media reaction; so i guess Tony was too busy at the time doing Triath’s & training for Polly Pedal to notice it.
Now all this OMG reaction, as if it were all done in secret is just more lazy Opposition bulls^it! If people (esp the Opposition) ignored the Press Release, it’s their own fault, not Rudd’s.
So you won’t have to make any more embarrassingly incorrect statements, here are the full report’s Recommendation’s (p3) NB (a), (c), (e) esp sentences marked * (by me) I’ve also put spaces between paras for easier reading.
[Remember all the criticism the ABC got for criticising Howard all the time, looks like Rudd’s getting his serve now. Tax dollars well spent imho.]
If Insiders had run a program like that when he was in government, the AbC would have been raided by ASIO with a follow-up exercise by the SAS with live ammunition!
[The Federal Government wants a parliamentary committee to investigate allegations that the head of the Queensland Liberal National Party (LNP) tried to pressure federal MP Michael Johnson into resigning.]
No ABC, Michael Johnson wants an investigation – that is why he made a formal complaint to the AFP. The Govt is following proceedure.
Aguirre
I didn’t watch Agenda but did they mention Abbott’s approval going down in the Essential poll?
Is Agenda always like this? I don’t watch it very much, so I’m getting a bit of a shock.
Yes Agenda and most Sky coverage is very poor. I watched the interview with Andrew Robb today and he was all over the place – at one point he said mining companies and companies servicing mining are currently slashing employees. The journalist asked for specific example to back this up he responded by saying oh just speaking to collegues and other people he knew it was happening. any journalist worth their salt would have followed up with specifics but she didn’t just let him get away with it.
I missed any talk about the polls. I tuned in about half way through while they were in full flight.
Interest rates on hold – Sky’s verdict: you’ve all been spared for the moment. Consider yourselves lucky it hasn’t all gone to hell in a handbasket yet.
[I didn’t watch Agenda but did they mention Abbott’s approval going down in the Essential poll? ]
Yep they did, they mentioned that Abbott has a 50% disapproval rate. But no mention of the IR stuff.
Yep. I remember well how the Howard government wasted valuable time and resources investigating left wing bias, as well as stacking the ABC leadership with Coalition sympathists and leaning on the organisation to cut down on anyone criticising the government (eg The Glass House)
Anyway, it is Monday, so I am looking forward to you hypocritically contradicting the opinion you just made, tonight – as you do your weekly whinge about Q & A, and how biased it is towards the left!
[I didn’t watch Agenda but did they mention Abbott’s approval going down in the Essential poll? ]
Yes they did. It showed Abbott’s disapproval going from 34% in Dec to 35% in March (I think) and 50% now while his approval rating is unchanged from Dec.
Would the ETS have passed if the Govt spent a few hundred million advertising it? Would the money have been well spent?
ABS employment data shows employment in the mining sector on the increase since the middle of 2009 after the two quarterly contractions in the first half of 2009. Unlike other sectors it has quickly bounced back to pre GFC levels – but if Andrew Robb has better sources of employment info, he could at least tell us.
Johnny – you know, the title “Insiders” tells you everything that’s wrong about the program. They call it “Outsiders” and I might watch it.
The Minerals Council anti RSPT ads were on every ad break during Agenda, was this an Austar thing or was it the same on Foxtel?
After bouncing around today, the Shanghai stock market was quite weak in the afternoon, finishing down -2.4%. Concerns about the housing market maybe a contributor. Coupled with potential for declining Chinese inventories, there is some potential for further sagging commodity prices. This may act as a short term dampener on AU resource shares and investment projects (though may be sheeted home to RSPT…)
Big moves in credit markets (i.e. interest rates up on corporate debt):
[May 31 (Bloomberg) — Dollar bonds sold by China real estate companies this year are the worst performers among Asian non-financial corporate debt denominated in the U.S. currency amid concern the nation’s property market is overheating.
Yields on the $3.9 billion of bonds issued by Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd., Country Garden Holdings Co. and seven other developers since January widened by an average 2.26 percentage points relative to Treasuries as of last week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s more than the 2.05 percentage- point increase in spreads for the seven dollar-denominated bonds sold by other companies in Asia outside Japan.
Investors are demanding greater yields to lend to China property firms, a sign they expect borrowers will have a harder time meeting debt payments amid a government clampdown down on lending…The yield spread on $350 million of 13.5 percent notes sold by Shenzhen-based Kaisa last month widened the most of the nine issues, expanding to 16.52 percentage points from 11.07 percentage points]
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNpIquePE9IE&pos=2
[Would the ETS have passed if the Govt spent a few hundred million advertising it? Would the money have been well spent?]
Not after cope failed. The argument became so much harder after that.
I think it was Paul Newman who once said that having a star in a a movie won’t make people go and watch a bad movie. But having a star might make them go and watch a good movie. I think it’s a bit like that with these campaigns. Howard spent a gazillion on advertising and it didn’t help him one jot, because they had such a lousy message to sell. Probably the same with the mining companies. I mean, who in their right mind could believe them.
Vera: welcome back! 🙂
Rudd was rather good this afternoon, his best in parliament for some time!
Labor should keep making the point that Clive Palmer owns Abbott! 😉
It is sad and pathetic that a self confessed serial liar, a compassionate little “c” like Abbott, cannot comprehend, having torched his own credibility,that each time he attacks any other persons credibility, he invites comparison with what remains of his own soiled reputation.What a stupid lying, non reflective goose he is!
[It is sad and pathetic that a self confessed serial liar, a compassionate little “c” like Abbott, cannot comprehend, having torched his own credibility,that each time he attacks any other persons credibility, he invites comparison with what remains of his own soiled reputation.What a stupid lying, non reflective goose he is!]
For heaven sake billy say what you mean. Don’t hold back.
It isnt hard to be fed up with politics in this country when you have…
Rudd as your Prime Minister
and
Tone as your other choice.
Their ABC on QT:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/05/31/2914287.htm?section=justin
Glen, save me the false equivalence. Rudd is ten times the human being that Tone is (and double the intellect). I will happily vote for him.
#1731
Which is exactly what the polls are saying.
[I will happily vote for him.]
Then Rosa you must have a lower threshold for incompetence and failure than I do.
It is people like you who cannot criticise those who have done the wrong thing politically that ensure we keep getting politicians like Rudd and Abbott who both are not half the person we need to hold the position of Prime Miniser.
Glen: you’ll still promote the supposed virtues of Abbott on this forum, like your friends GP and Truthy – that you can bet on! 😆
Didn’t notice. But I did see it about ten minutes ago. I don’t know why they bother putting them on Sky News. Waste of money – anyone already watching is too politically aware to be swayed one way or the other.
I did see the anti-Rudd ad at the end of Agenda. That’s just silly. For one thing it’s too upbeat – it actually makes Rudd look quite lively. And they end it with wtte “and he’ll thrown in free insulation!” They must think just the mention of the word is negative enough, because it looks like a positive for Labor otherwise. They needed a negative word at the end of the ad to make that work.
[ Johnny – you know, the title “Insiders” tells you everything that’s wrong about the program. They call it “Outsiders” and I might watch it.]
How about “Backsiders”.
Also a suitable title for tonight’s QandA, which features Cori Bernardi and Mitch Grady.
Bullbutter Evan14 and you know it!
Tone is hardly better than Rudd IMHO – both are terrible choices for PM of this great country of ours.
Evan14 you are worse than Rosa in your inability to criticise your own side for their failings.
Glen 1731
I actually sympathise – I truly do. It must be annoying to be a true conservative right now. While you believe Rudd to be the worst choice out of the two, of course, you can’t help but wish you had a better alternative than Abbott.
I can assure you, although we are on different parts of the spectrum, I have been there before too. It’s not fun.
Glen: does voting for Abbott mean you get Turnball eventually? 😉
Glen, you should ask yourself why you’ve got to bag rudd to make abbott more palatable. Might throw up some revealing answers (or maybe not)
TSOP
I know I will be voting Liberal this year.
But you wont hear me cheering much for Ted Ballieu or Tony Abbott.
These two men dont deserve their jobs and they arent doing their jobs properly.
TSOP I’m just glad I’m no longer a kool-aid drinker dunno how i drunk that crap in the past.