The West Australian has published a Westpoll survey of 400 voters in the outer southern Perth seat of Brand, held by Kim Beazley from 1996 to 2007 and by Gary Gray thereafter. The two-party vote is said to be 50-50, but it’s hard to square this with primary vote figures of 43 per cent for Labor (3.2 per cent below their result in 2007) and 42 per cent (up 3.4 per cent) for the Liberals. On 2007 preferences it would have been approaching 52-48, pointing to a swing against Labor of 4 per cent. Oddly, we are also told that if the old boundaries were in place the Liberals would be leading 45 per cent to 41 per cent on the primary vote and 52-48 on two-party (I make it 50-50), even though the redistribution has only boosted Labor 0.4 per cent by Antony Green’s estimation. The poll had a typical Westpoll sample of 406, giving it a high margin-of-error of a bit below 5 per cent.
Other findings:
• Fifty-six per cent of respondents oppposed the resources super profits tax, with only 25 per cent supporting it.
• Julia Gillard was found to be preferred over Kevin Rudd as preferred leader, 34 per cent to 31 per cent.
• Thirty-nine per cent said Tony Abbott’s “gospel truth” remark made them think less of him, against 54 per cent who said it made no difference.
• The government received “poor” ratings of 82 per cent poor rating for handling of the insulation program, 81 per cent for asylum seekers as poor (against 14 per cent good) and 60 per cent for climate change policy (against 29 per cent0 good).
• By contrast, and in good news for Julia Gillard, 46 per cent rated the government’s handling of the school hall construction program as good against 43 per cent poor.
• Respondents were split down the middle on the federal government’s health reform package, rated good by 45 per cent and poor by 46 per cent.
kakura 1738
How about ‘a%$elickers’?
[How about ‘a%$elickers’?]
I hope you include Maxine too JB LOL!
Roy Morgan has published WA-only results from its three recent phone poll surveys regarding the RSPT. The combined sample is 213, so only 70 each – more like 55 if you exclude the 14-17 age group which gets a guernsey in Morgan polling. With all those qualifications attached, the results progressed from 36-54 to 33-67 to 18-78 against. All capped off with another Gary Morgan special:
[The Rudd Government’s decision to propose the Mining ‘Super Profits’ Tax is likely to backfire spectacularly with the growing opposition in Western Australia to the ‘Super Profits’ Tax threatening the key ALP seats of Hasluck (held by Sharryn Jackson by just 1.0%), Brand (held by Gary Gray by 6.1%) and even Perth (8.1%) & Fremantle (9.1%). All four seats are in danger of swinging to the Liberal Party at this year’s Federal Election. A disastrous result like this would see the ALP not holding a single seat in the entire State of Western Australia!]
Glen.
Would the Libs be in a better position if they had Abbott as leader after Nelson, then switched to Turnbull?
Abbott has done well attacking Kevin Rudd, but at great expense to his own credibilty. He is getting more unpopular as the months go by.
As others have said, he is in the worst position of any Opp leader in an election year. He has 3 policies, all dud and if he does announce policy he will not be able to defend it or fund it.
Glen
Nah. She’s too good mate. The two Bishop’s maybe inclined to do something of than nature, but not our Maxine. She’s a good Marooka girl.
I reckon Possum might be looking to convict Morgan of “Crimes against Psephology” with those comments.
Gary,I never liked Howard either,he least was clever. Abbott is, at least, how I have described him. I wish Nelson had included a psychological profile of Abbott as well as Turnbull. Abbott,I think, would be a more malevolent version of the extreme narcissist, as Nelson has previously described Turnbull.
Costello would have been better still.
Abbott is only good at attack not at actually having anything to stand for.
Sky ran that picture postcard that the Greens have out showing 1/2 face of the PM and the other 1/2 of Howard. It was about the asylum seeker policy.
I saw a tweet from Christine Milne’s adviser that he had asked and got Latika Bourke and Sky to run it and discuss it.
Is this political advertising because there was contact between them? Was it run for free. If so, will the Greens declare it as a donation from media outlets. What are the rules?
Ahh Erica:
Latika Bourke latikambourke
‘this Prime Minister is doing more backflips than a dolphin at SeaWorld.’ Eric Abetz on 2UE who goes on to admit his staffer wrote that line 22 minutes ago via web Retweeted by the_kennel and 5 others
[
I know I will be voting Liberal this year.
But you wont hear me cheering much for Ted Ballieu or Tony Abbott.
These two men dont deserve their jobs and they arent doing their jobs properly.
]
IMHO, you’ll be doing your side of politics no favour.
Given that you honestly believe that the conservatives are going to lose the next election, it would be better for them if they got the rude awakening and realised that they need to do better.
If they come close to winning, it’ll be business as usual.
Glen 1743
You should’ve seen me in 2004. I was rusted on pro-Latham, I spewed all of the talking points, rationalised a huge Labor victory – even in the last week, when it was obvious it was over and got really really upset when he lost. All because I just drank the kool-aid. Retrospectively, while I still would’ve voted Labor, I wouldn’t have been so zealous, and probably would’ve seen Latham for what he was sooner.
BTW, I am no major fan of Rudd. I call out unfair criticisms of him and don’t terribly dislike him, but I am not excited about his PMship either. It’s just an Abbott government would be such a disaster IMO, I feel I must do everything I can to prevent one. If Turnbull were leading at the moment, I probably would be less concerned about who wins. (I’d still support Labor, of course, but won’t be that emotionally invested – if that makes sense.)
Better than a Dugong like Erica.
William – it looks like he’s not even mentioning that it’s a tax on “super” profits. Just referring to it as a 40 per cent tax on mining.
Ewww! That’s terrible! I hate it when politicians attempt wit!
[I reckon Possum might be looking to convict Morgan of “Crimes against Psephology” with those comments.]
I don’t know about that. If Labor loses all its seats in Western Australia, it will indeed have lost all its seats in Western Australia, just like he says.
rosa@1757
A Textbook case of Push Polling ?
Erica Betz, being a Tasmaniac would know very little about Sea World in Smart State Qld. He is more of a log tosser.
I did raise that point in my most recent Morgan post:
[Though I do wonder about the wording of the question, which speaks of “the new 40% tax on profits of mining projects”.]
William,
On those figures about 30 voted for Libs and 10 for Labor in the last poll.
It’s a bit of a shallow pool imho.
Has Morgan yet acknowledged his personal financial interest in opposing the RSPT?
I bet some media organisation picks up on Gary Morgan’s “poll”. That is why he released it. No too silly if you ask me.
Glen, we wade through seas of fools and incompetents, and Rudd has surely made his mistakes. But since Jesus Christ has apparently delayed the Second Coming, Rudd will do me fine.
Glen while I fully respect your loyality to the Liberal Party but they need to learn the hard way that becoming extremist is not what this country needs for a Government.
This week we saw the Liberal Party lose a former leader but rather than do some soul searching their response was to release a nasty lazy policy.
The Liberal Party needs to return to its base and this will not happen while the liberal voters just roll over and accept what ever crap that party produces.
But as I said your loyality is to be appluded but that party will never learn without being made to sit up and take notice.
The party is a disgrace to the ideals of Menzies & Deakin
“”Tone is hardly better than Rudd IMHO – both are terrible choices for PM of this great country of ours.””
Glen – Rudd saved Aust from the GFC – 500k less unemployed compare that to US & Europe. End of story. Rudd is 100 times better than Abbott who’s only policy is to play the race card.
Lets put it this way if Gough Whitlam quit the ALP the hard heads would move heaven and earth to fix the problem but not the Liberal Party. Without change the Liberal Winter will be a long cold wet muddy one.
[Given that you honestly believe that the conservatives are going to lose the next election, it would be better for them if they got the rude awakening and realised that they need to do better.]
Uhhh… but it’s RUDD who needs the rude awakening and needs to do a better job.
Abbotts in opposition, not Rudd. Rudd’s f’ing up badly, Abbotts not doing such a great job as leader but he ISN’T in government.
You don’t vote against an opposition simply to “teach em a lesson”, you do that for governments and this government will be taught a lesson at this coming election.
Today’s Essential is another poll showing “other” with a higher primary vote than the Greens. This is unlikely to happen in an election.
Demographic breakdowns show Abbott ahead with 55+ or older groups, in the regions and WA.
Rudd is ahead with <55, capital cities and big population states. Is the Abbott vote like the Beazley vote, in the wrong electorates to win?
[Lets put it this way if Gough Whitlam quit the ALP the hard heads would move heaven and earth to fix the problem but not the Liberal Party. Without change the Liberal Winter will be a long cold wet muddy one.]
Gough Whitlam is the most leftwing, biggest spending, socialist Australia has ever had.
If Gough did quit the party it would be a positive mark for Labor.
[You don’t vote against an opposition simply to “teach em a lesson”, you do that for governments and this government will be taught a lesson at this coming election.]
By winning with an increased majority?
Truthy missed the point, if a leader of your party quits then you have a problem by Glen voting for them he bascially is saying to them that he is happy with the direction they are taking.
Just saw Spiers on SkyNews and apart from saying wtte that the PM had a hard time in QT today it was a pretty fair report
Probably doesn’t want to scare the horses with getting some of the Govt. advertising tho.
Truthy I am pleased for you that you support a party that voted for a recesson
Question for Possum if you are lurking.
Do you have any insight into the granualrity of the polls with respect to demographics and how they compare to the actual demographic distribution?
granualrity = granularity
“[”Tone is hardly better than Rudd IMHO – both are terrible choices for PM of this great country of ours.””]
if you think this you have been hiding under a rock for some time.
the Rudd gov have put in so many reforms, listed here over the weekend.
The GFC really did happen you know more would of been done if it had not,
But if he had done more and we also had the GFC you would be yelling with a megaphone, ‘ why did he spend This money at this time”,
Tone ( mad monk) could not hold a candle to Mr. Rudd.
what has he done that is so bad, must be in your imagination, i suggest or do you want Camelot, there is no Camelot only a GOOD human being doing his best for our country, get over it.
The problem for Abbott is what does he do in QT tomorrow?
The 7pm Young Liberal Report are bootsrapping for the Govt in Exile:
http://7pmproject.com.au/2914.htm
Actually the onus is on the opposition to demonstrate why the government is bad and how they’d make a better alternative. An inept opposition is more likely to suffer electorally than an inept government.
Unless it is a by-election (ie. one that won’t affect who has the majority), people vote for whom they prefer to have run things, not to make a point. However, they will cast a protest vote in opinion polls, as they know it isn’t binding.
Food for thought, for the right.
Malcolm Fraser leaving the libs just demonstrates once again that the only core belief of the liberal party is opposition to the labor party. After that it’s just a bunch of guys clustering around a leader. That’s why they’ll never have a tradition and can’t keep their leaders.
According to ‘Nuts and Bolts’, Rudd is sinking so quickly he’ll be replaced by Labor in four weeks. Sure Andrew.
Vex & The OO:
Mind you, in Andrew Bolt’s universe, John Howard won the last election and is looking to win this one too (Costello didn’t take over; Howard is PM until he dies)
Frank that comedy show should not be taken as serious commentatary
So this means that if can get some more old Lib leaders to quit, we can fix Global Warming.
[The problem for Abbott is what does he do in QT tomorrow?]
Cardboard cut-outs! 😉
[
Rudd’s f’ing up badly, …
]
If you believe this, don’t vote for him.
As mexicanbeemer, and To Speak of Pebbles, and other adults understood, my friendly advice was based on Glen‘s declared position.
Glenn seems like a very balanced liberal person, perhaps he could vote for an independent.
It is a bit like the Demons and us oh he always says, dash it i am going to barrack for another team but he never does, and he says to the dog ( cockerspaniel) lets barrack for your team the doggies.
so its really hard Glen i understand to change teams so try and independent.
Many years ago, i changed from liberal to labor and have been so happy i did.
I had forgotten till i head Mr. Swan say today the great things they have done as a party.
Floated the dollar, bought in compulsory supper., the Petroleum tax, and of course the one he did not mention is HECS, as a parent i am so grateful for that one,
Or else we would both had to had two jobs and i would of been scrubbing floors also or taking in washing besides my other work i did.
So Glen try it , then you can next time think perhaps changing to independents this time was not so hard. But please do not let abbott think he is on the correct path.
Because the liberals will never change just get worse.
i am am sincere in this. You know lots of labor people we are not so bad are we
Abbott will need his mates from News Ltd and Radio Liberal to write him a new script! 😀
Q&A tonight:
Maxine vs Cory Berandi!