Morgan: 52.5-47.5

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead down to 52.5-47.5 after last week’s four point bounce up to 54.5-45.5. This seems a bit odd given that Labor’s primary vote is only down 0.5 per cent to 42 per cent while the Coalition is steady on 41 per cent. The effect comes from the non-major party vote figures, which are showing the same volatility as Newspoll’s without in any way replicating the surge to the Greens recorded on the weekend. Indeed, this poll – conducted at the same time – has the Greens down from 11 per cent to 8.5 per cent, with “others” doubling from 3.5 per cent to 7 per cent.

Besides which:

• The Liberals have announced candidates for two normally marginal seats in South Australia: Gawler councillor David Strauss will run against Nick Champion in Wakefield, and businesswoman Liz Davies will run against Tony Zappia in Makin. Both seats were gained by Labor at the 2007 election, with relative swings of 7.3 per cent and 8.6 per cent producing margins of 6.6 per cent and 7.7 per cent.

• The Liberals have announced candidates for the two Australian Capital Territory seats. Canberra will be contested by Giulia Jones, a former party staffer who was narrowly unsuccessfully in her run for Molonglo at the 2008 Australian Capital Territory, and sought Tasmanian Senate preselection for the 2007 federal election. Jones had been the only nominee at the time the party suspended the preselection process in late 2009 in the hopes of finding a higher profile, but it would appear none was forthcoming. In Fraser the Liberals have nominated James Milligan, a small business owner from Gungahlin.

• Amid claims from LNP member Michael Johnson that party president Bruce McIver threatened to refer him to police if he did not resign as member, the party is preparing to preselect a successor in his seat of Ryan next week. Brisbane councillor Jane Prentice is rated the front-runner, but other possible starters are said to include Seb Monsour, manager with catering and cleaning firm Spotless and brother-in-law or Brisbane lord mayor Campbell Newman, and Senator Russell Trood, who holds an unwinnable position on the party’s Senate ticket.

• The Daily Advertiser reports the paper’s former editor, Michael McCormack, has won preselection to succeed retiring Kay Hull as Nationals candidate for Riverina. Other nominees were Wesley Fang, a Child Flight helicopter pilot from Wagga Wagga, John Minogue, a farmer from Barmedman, Bill Maslin, a Gundagai councillor, and Mark Hoskinson, a farmer from Kikoira. The Liberal candidate is thought likely to be Charles Morton, described by a Poll Bludger commenter as “lawyer turned businessman/film financier/mate of Mel Gibson”.

• The Liberal candidate for the Melbourne seat of Isaacs, Peter Angelico, has withdrawn after his Dandenong metal fabrication business was fined $25,000 over a workplace accident that resulted in a 16-year-old losing part of three fingers.

• The Nationals have nominated Tamworth Chamber of Commerce president Tim Coates to run against independent Tony Windsor in New England.

• Farmborough Heights business consultant Michelle Blicavs has been unanimously endorsed by local members as Liberal candidate for the NSW state seat of Wollongong.

• UMR Research has published results on attitudes towards banning wearing of the burkha, producing intuitively correct findings of generally high support that wanes among the younger and university educated.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

584 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5”

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  1. [Dio and Laocoon
    I take it your distant ancestors were more adept at distinguishing Cave Bears from Aurochs.]

    well, I guess so given we are here 😉

    the more spooky and challenging analogy would be to million-billion-gazillion- Barnaby Joyce; that would truly hurt 😮

  3. [Well take a looksies at this graph on the second page, gee that evil Howard and his evil Pacific Solution sure stopped the boats and as a result stopped people from going behind the razor wire.]
    Yes we understand that Howard made Australia a more “appealing” (your term) destination for people smugglers and asylum seekers.

    Howard was weak on border protection.

  4. [Dio

    So, is $69 million an Auroch and $69 billion a Cave Bear?]

    It’s definitely that way around. The heart-stopping $69 bill is the same over-reaction as mistaking an auroch for a cave-bear.

  6. No it wasn’t.

    Yes it was. It had ceased to be, gone and met its maker. It’s a stiff, bereft of life. It rests in peace. If you hadn’t nailed it to the perch, it’d be pushing up daisies!

  7. [Yes we understand that Howard made Australia a more “appealing” (your term) destination for people smugglers and asylum seekers.]

    Ahh Showsies I never said that. I said Howard made a policy to take women and children out of detention.

    The boaties still stopped because they knew Howard was serious where Rudd is a joke. You know Rudd’s a joke too if you looked at the graph. All the excuses in the world can’t cover a graph line like that. Perhaps we should get possum’s analysis on what sort of line trend you would call that. Exponential? Vertical? Skyrocket?

  8. OMG, that promo for the Four Corners story on the Super Tax is so one sided towards the Miners I would forget even pretending it will be a fair story.

    Once again, Their ABC doing their bit to re-elect the Govt in exile aka the Liibs.

  10. [Ahh Showsies I never said that. I said Howard made a policy to take women and children out of detention.]
    Well the parliament did when Labor supported Petro Georgiou’s private member’s bill. You also said this made Australia more “appealing” for people smugglers. If Howard didn’t want it, he would’ve forced his party to vote it down.

    Don’t run away from what you wrote, we all know you wrote it.

  12. Truthy

    In fairness to Rudd, the kids aren’t in the normal detention centres and I don’t think any of them are “behind razor wire” although obviously plenty are still in detention of some sort.

  14. Wow, that’s impressive. MacDonald has managed to be sacked as a Minister twice in seven months. That just has to be a record.

  15. Truthy 411

    Yes, we know the NSW government is going to lose the next election. But I guess any good news for the Liberal hacks to cling to is better than none.

  16. [In fairness to Rudd, the kids aren’t in the normal detention centres and I don’t think any of them are “behind razor wire” although obviously plenty are still in detention of some sort.]

    Actually thats a misconception.

    On Christmas Island you have the main detention facility which is surrounded by barb wire.

    Then you have the women and children area, next to the detention centre. It has razor wire around it as well all the way around to the border fence of the main detention facility.

    Now according to the government spinsters this isn’t behind the razor wire because they aren’t in the main compound. Humans with working brains realise thats complete BS because their section is also surrounded by razor wire.

    BTW as I have pointed out taking women and children out from main detention areas was a Lib Party policy, not that I approve of it as it’s a softening in my view.

  18. OMG, that promo for the Four Corners story on the Super Tax is so one sided towards the Miners I would forget even pretending it will be a fair story.

    It;s a shocker. Just pathetic.

  23. Truthy:

    Senator Michin resigned
    Malcom Resigned and then reinstated
    The LNP Senator that is filing corruption charges (?) against LNP in QLD, over forced sacking???

    etc etc

  24. [366
    TheTruthHurts

    Did you ever think.. maybe.. just maybe… banning the Burqa would be good for these repressed, hidden, isolated and threatened women of Islam?

    Besides it’s not our job to conform to their culture, it’s their job to conform to ours when they get off the plane. I don’t go to Saudia Arabia wearing a G-banger and drinking a brew.]

    HTT, you seem to be saying that if it is good enough for the Saudis to have repressive laws, then it should be good enough for us too.

    You cannot purport to defend minority rights with one breath, and in the next suggest the burkha should be banned. Surely, what distinguishes Australia from places like Saudi Arabia is that people have the right to make choices and are encouraged to freely exercise this right.

    I am not a religious person by any measure, but I am well aware that in another time or in another place, I could well face persecution simply for holding my (irreligious) views; and further, I am well aware that I can hardly defend my rights in these matters while refusing others the same rights.

  25. Truthy:

    Senator Michin resigned
    Malcom Resigned and then reinstated
    The LNP Senator that is filing corruption charges (?) against LNP in QLD, over forced sacking???

    etc etc

    As he said, sinking ship. 😉

  26. Just saw the 3 and a half Corners promo, and really something has to be done about the ABC. They are not even pretending to be impartial anymore.

  27. [Now according to the government spinsters this isn’t behind the razor wire because they aren’t in the main compound. Humans with working brains realise thats complete BS because their section is also surrounded by razor wire.]
    So you are saying that Rudd has a tougher border protection policy than Howard had.

  29. Just saw the 3 and a half Corners promo, and really something has to be done about the ABC. They are not even pretending to be impartial anymore.

    Yep – geez, we need to hear someone tell use what the RSPT will do to the mining industry… I know, let’s ask Clive Palmer…

  30. stock markets in EU sort of tanked in the last hour or so, falling 1-2%…an assortment of news…seems like an appropriate time to hide under the doona
    [LONDON—The euro gave up early gains to drop sharply Friday, as pessimism over the euro zone sovereign-debt crisis resurfaced amid concerns over Hungary’s economy.

    The 16-nation currency fell to a fresh four-year low of $1.2090, while the currency hit an all-time low of 1.3865 against the Swiss franc, putting market participants on alert for SNB intervention…

    “There remains too much uncertainty about the health of banks, about the future arrangements for the euro, about sovereign debt and about growth for us to want to take risk in this region for the moment,” said HSBC….

    Meanwhile, rumors of derivative problems at a large French bank—with many traders speculating it could be Societe Generale— also dented sentiment. Societe Generale said it had no comment on market rumors…

    A comment by a leading official on Thursday in Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party that Hungary faces a Greek-like sovereign debt problem reignited fears over euro-zone sovereign debt. On Friday, Hungary moved to reassure investors, with the prime minister’s spokesman Peter Szijjarto saying the government won’t let the country’s economy go down the same path as Greece.]

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704764404575286033099015588.html?mod=WSJ_Markets_LeadStory

  31. Adrian 426

    If we do watch it, we should look for the inconsistencies and lies and then send Media Watch with heaps of emails. Alternatively, don’t watch it. Which is probably what I will do. It is joining the list with the insiders/outsiders.

  32. [Yep – geez, we need to hear someone tell use what the RSPT will do to the mining industry… I know, let’s ask Clive Palmer…]
    Whenever Clive Palmer it shown talking about the mining tax the mining industry is losing the debate.

  33. Shows On

    I think that is what the Labor party is working on. Just about anything that comes out of a Labor minister’s mouth, with respect to RSPT, includes Clive Palmer. I think even those who don’t support the RSPT, dislike Clive.

  34. Johnny Button@431

    Adrian 426

    If we do watch it, we should look for the inconsistencies and lies and then send Media Watch with heaps of emails. Alternatively, don’t watch it. Which is probably what I will do. It is joining the list with the insiders/outsiders.

    Which will be made easier by both the vodcast and the transcript being posted 🙂

  35. Truthy can’t decide whether to attack Rudd for being soft on boaties, or to claim that Rudd is being nasty to boaties in order to embarrass the lefties.

  36. Media never tell a good story, am not sure that’s biased or politically motivate, well in general anyway, just that they know that most people like to gather round a house fire and have a sticky beak, check out an accident when someone’s got it in the neck etc….good stories are boring, if you want excitement then you stir up ***t. It’s always been thus, lets not get paranioid.

  38. [Just saw the 3 and a half Corners promo, and really something has to be done about the ABC. They are not even pretending to be impartial anymore.]

    never watch it any more, it will be interesting to see how they show the mining bosses also Palmer.

    But No i want watch it we should never put their rating up.

    But then i am also curious to know with out the boxes how they know their numbers of people watching
    but perhpas the switched on people are the only ones that do view it so they know whats what who knows

    O for the chris masters days of 4 corners, good ness knows why they dont give it a change of name
    i have noticed though that most of the time its a programme done by another outlet e,g bbc, now they are worth watching i wonder if they the abc read what we say here. I wonder who does read what we say here. but those 6ooo hits william told us about on those occasions he mentioned i suppose someone does. Do they learn things do they go away educated ???.

  40. [Truthy can’t decide whether to attack Rudd for being soft on boaties, or to claim that Rudd is being nasty to boaties in order to embarrass the lefties.]

    I don’t mind someone being tough on boaties, in fact I fully support such an action.

    Rudd’s been a complete lightweight and soft touch and as a result there has been a flood of boats.

    The more boats you have, the more people behind the razor wire… thats just an undeniable fact. The left made such a song and dance about the Pacific Solution but the fact is.. it WORKED. It stopped the boats. And stopped people dying getting here. It stopped people being locked up behind the razor wire.

    The left aren’t so much worried about the wellbeing as they are for idealogy. They’ve had nothing to fight for since the 70’s, so now they are inventing up any old bullshit to show how much “morally enlightened” they are then everyone else.. but it’s complete crap.

  42. [will do. It is joining the list with the insiders/outsiders]

    have you actully thought that a lot of people on this site may be the real insiders..

  45. [slugfest on LL coming up, looks good.]
    I challenged Paul Howes to see if he can get Kroger to deviate from the Liberal line on any issue by even 1mm.

    Howes has deviated from the Labor line on occasions, notably on asylum seekers and the domestic use of nuclear power. I have never heard Kroger say anything bad about Liberal policy. He even defended Barnaby Joyce’s performance in shadow finance!

  46. Bk dont you love the tassie boy no 8, he went to the school my oh now works at
    Christian br school all he lived for was his footy

  47. slugfest on LL coming up, looks good.

    [I challenged Paul Howes to see if he can get Kroger to deviate from the Liberal line on any issue by even 1mm.]

    did any one read maidens comments on the press club debate only something about clives hair

  48. Thanks Grog, a good chuckle that RSPT ad.

    Is anyone prepared to tally up how many times the naysayers have got it wrong over the last 50 years or so?? Big tedious job no doubt.

  49. [I don’t mind someone being tough on boaties, in fact I fully support such an action.]
    Yes, but you can’t walk away from the fact that you think Howard’s support of ending mandatory detention for women and children made Australia a more “appealing” (that’s the word you used) destination for arrivals by boat, and thus aided people smugglers.

    Therefore, by your own standards, you think Howard in his last term was weak on border protection.

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