This week’s Roy Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, down from 52.5-47.5 last week. Labor’s primary vote is down two points to 40 per cent, with the Coalition up 0.5 per cent to 41.5 per cent. The Greens are up 2.5 per cent to 11 per cent.
Problems for the Coalition at ground level dominate the latest round of federal preselection news.
• The Queensland Liberal National Party has dumped its candidate for the new Gold Coast hinterland seat of Wright, Logan councillor Hajnal Ban, for failing to disclose she was facing Civil and Administrative Tribunal action over the finances of an elderly former council colleague over whom she had power of attorney (a story broken on Sunday by the ubiquitous VexNews). The decision was reportedly made at the direction of Liberal federal director Brian Loughnane. Ban may technically nominate for the re-match, but has been told by the party not to bother. Widely mentioned in connection with the new preselection are Cameron Thompson, who lost his seat of Blair in 2007 and ran against Ban in the initial preselection, and Scott Driscoll of small business lobby group the United Retail Federation, described by Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald as “a controversial and opinionated character”.
• Brisbane councillor Jane Prentice has won the Liberal National Party preselection for the Brisbane seat of Ryan, which was held after incumbent Michael Johnson was expelled from the party. Marissa Calligeros of Fairfax reports Prentice received 158 votes against 39 for Christian Rowan and 23 for Wayne Black. Johnson complained on Twitter that the party had chosen an “opportunistic politician” in Prentice over a “talent” in Rowan, a Brisbane medical practitioner who ran for the Nationals in Gympie at the 2004 state election.
• The Northern Star reports the Nationals candidate for the north coast NSW seat of Richmond, Tania Murdock, has pulled out “citing personal attacks on her and issues with parts of the local party”. Labor’s Justine Elliott won the seat from Nationals member Larry Anthony in 2004, but ongoing urbanisation is strengthening the Liberals (whose candidate is Tweed councillor Joan van Lieshout) in the area relative to the Nationals. Elliott currently holds the seat with a margin of 8.7 per cent.
• Yet another on the Coalition casualty list is Liberal candidate for Dobell Garry Lee, a Wyong businessman who interestingly set up a company last year to take advantage of the government’s insulation scheme. Lee announced this week he was withdrawing for personal reasons. It is thought likely the runner-up from the May 14 preselection vote, school teacher Kristy Knox, will put her name forward again.
• The Liberals have preselected Luke Westley, marketing manager for Adelaide Produce Market and candidate for Enfield in the March state election, as candidate for Adelaide. Among the also-rans was Houssam Abiad, whose failure despite backing from factional enemies Alexander Downer and Christopher Pyne may have had something to do with anti-Israel comments publicised by perennial career-wrecker VexNews. Others in the field of eight were factional conservative and former Young Liberals president Sam Duluk, recruitment consultant David Maerschel and real estate agent Vivienne Twelftree.
• ABC Riverina reports the Liberals have preselected Cargill Beef marketing manager Andrew Negline in Riverina, ahead of Julie Elphick, John Larter, Paul McCormack and Charles Morton. The Nationals last week preselected former Daily Advertiser Michael McCormack to replace retiring member Kay Hull.
• The latest Reuters Poll Trend figure, a weighted average of various pollsters’ results over the past month, has Labor leading 50.2-49.8. Reuters has published the result as part of an Australian 2010 Pre-Election Package compiled for the benefit of foreign media.
State matters from New South Wales:
• Roy Morgan has published NSW state voting intention figures derived from its two most recent national phone polls, producing a small sample of 360. This shows Labor’s primary vote crashing six points since February to 28.5 per cent, with the Liberals up three to 44 per cent, the Nationals down one to 1 per cent and the Greens up five to 16 per cent.
• Simultaneous with announcing his departure from NSW cabinet last week, Labor’s member for Campbelltown announced he would not contest the next election, creating a vacancy in one of the depressingly small number of seats Labor can be reasonably sure of winning (margin 18.5 per cent). The Macarthur Advertiser reports Campbelltown’s Labor mayor Aaron Rule has denied being interested, saying he would support fellow councillor Anoulack Chanthivong. Another possibility is Paul Nunnari, a policy adviser to West who unsuccessfully contested preselection for the federal seat of Macarthur. Wollondilly MP Phil Costa denies he will seek refuge from his own highly marginal seat.
• The Great Lakes Advocate reports the NSW Nationals have nominated Forster solicitor Stephen Bromhead as candidate for Myall Lakes, to be vacated on the retirement of sitting member John Turner.
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian writes that the Right faction forces associated with state upper house MP David Clarke have warned Barry O’Farrell against a repeat of his unsuccessful attempt to sway the Riverstone preselection in favour of Nick Tyrrell, who had the backing of Alex Hawke’s rival Right sub-faction, against Clarke-backed winner Kevin Connolly. Further turf wars between the rival groups loom in Baulkham Hills, Castle Hill and Hornsby, the latter of which is to be vacated by the recently announced retirement of sitting member Judy Hopwood.
State matters from Victoria:
• The Monash Journal reports the Victorian Liberals have endorsed Theo Zographos, a 21-year-old “has worked part-time as an electorate officer”, as its candidate for the eastern Melbourne suburbs state seat of Oakleigh.
• The Ballarat Courier reports the Victorian Liberals’ administration committee has installed Ballarat councillor Ben Taylor as candidate for
Ballarat East, cutting short the normal preselection process. Labor’s Geoff Howard holds the seat with a margin of 6.7 per cent.
Jon@195
You wanna bet – That’s an Easy Listeniong Staple and I’ll bet that’s on the same Townsville station which relays Alan Jones and Ray Hadley 🙂
Hmm:
Psephos, back at 103:
[ There’s also Scotland Island in Pittwater, a small booth of 300 voters which votes 68% Labor. I don’t know why, maybe it’s been colonised by hippies or artists. ]
Last federal election, two of the Greens’ best booths around Australia were Scotland Island (Mackellar) and Dangar Island (Berowra) – see here. The vote % were:
Dangar: Grn 41, ALP 38, Lib 14
Scotland: Grn 35, ALP 27, Lib 26, Climate Change Coalition 10
That does exactly what you’d expect to a nominal Lib vs ALP 2pp figure. It explains how the only ALP booths in Berowra are a few in the 50’s (around Hornsby) and one completely random 81%.
Dee wrote
Correct Dee. The other side is Rudd is clearly in no mood or hurry to do or be seen to concluded any *deal* with dirty Big Dirt. No reason why he would of course.
Far much better to quietly explain to people what is in it for them :
– Sand Gropers – a couple of Billion in infrastructure, plus better super, tax cuts to small business etc.
– In Qld basically the same – local projects in Mackay etc in the news today
Rudd knew the fight he was picking and with whom and it was done cold hard and calculated. I think he wants Big Dirt Billionaires to respond exactly as they have done.
Either that or just agree.
Either way they will not win.
The OO can bang on as much as they like, but all they do is generate hot air. After the election watch out Newscorp. You have rat F**ked yourselves once too often. This time with Rudd there will be payback.
Why did ABC shut down the collectors website?
A minor hiccup happens down at ABC and suddenly they drop an atomic bomb on the department.
Frank
[ You wanna bet – That’s an Easy Listeniong Staple and I’ll bet that’s on the same Townsville station which relays Alan Jones and Ray Hadley ]
I simply cannot fathom that could be classified as easy to listen to,what a sheltered life I must lead, I really had no idea. Those poor people, nobody deserves that.
[This time with Rudd there will be payback.]
Oh I’d love to see that! The Murdoch press have an over exaggerated belief in their own power. Some comeuppance might bring back the journalist at News Ltd, and send all those ‘opiners’ back where they belowg — under a rock.
Jon@206
Easy Listening Radio is no longer Ray Coniff and Mantovani. 🙂
“Rudd knew the fight he was picking and with whom and it was done cold hard and calculated. I think he wants Big Dirt Billionaires to respond exactly as they have done.
Either that or just agree.”
Yup, i reckon your right. And the “Big Dirt Billionaires” silly over the top response has meant that Abboott has taken a definitive position on something. He’s actually pinned himself down on the fact that they “will oppose it in opposition and repeal it in govt”.
Ok, he didn’t write it down so it may not be Gospel Truth but its in Hansard isnt it?
He now has to go into and fight an election campaign with that statement, AND all its implications for the revenue side of the budget hanging around his neck like a stinking albatros carcase regardless of whether there is any ‘deal” done between the miners and the Govt. And if ther is some rapprochement between Govt and miners (unlikely i think) he is REALLY screwed!
This is starting to remind me a bit of when Rudd and Albanese suckered Abboot so neatly into the Health debate?? But it will take longer for the penny to drop for Abboot i think.:)
Rudd’s losing the mining debate.
We see it in the media.
We see it in the polling.
We see it in the protests.
We see it in the Rudd softening.
Rudd’s losing and losing badly and he knows it. Rudd will be kicking and screaming but in the end he will repent and keel over to the miners demands. He knows he can’t go much longer the way the pollings going in mining marginals.
Truthy: really???? You must live on alternative planet earth…
Protests? lol 2000 is not a protest.
[ A minor hiccup happens down at ABC ]
You are so out of whack, boats full of desperate refugees are a national emergency, someone gets charged with kiddie porn and it’s a hiccup. What’s it is with you?
Whatever, works, BB. I read sci fi.
Come on brizzy… You KNOW better.
Do not let that turd pull your chain !
🙂
brisoz,
[Protests? lol 2000 is not a protest.]
I have seen so much footage of the “protest” that my head hurts and I don’t think there would have been any more than about 200 at best.
Bi matter how much the MSM tries to beat it up, I’m pretty sure most viewers can tell the difference between 2000 and 200!
That one was a “BIG” fail! I don’t think they would be willing to try it again.
Actually truthy not only is Rudd winning the mining debate but personal experience shows the whole poor billionaire shamozzle is waking people up to the bullshit being spouted by the media 🙂
“he will repent and keel over to the miners demands.”
Wow, That someone would actualy put those sentiments in those particluar terms is quite chilling.
[Protests? lol 2000 is not a protest.]
The Silent Majority are not known for their big protests.
The lefties protest the biggest and loudest, but their votes count exactly the same amount as anyone else.
“Protests? lol 2000 is not a protest”
Didn’t one media rag cite more like 200???
I saw one pan shot from the back of the truck and the crowd looked incredibly small.
Did anyone notice the camera work and the lack of panoramic shots?
[Protests? lol 2000 is not a protest.]
Especially 2000 with neatly printed signs and practiced chanting.
Troothy must have missed the Financial Report on the ABC News this evening.
All the mining and banking stocks with a strong rally!
I still don’t understand why anyone responds to TTH, unless he or she is just a wee mouse and you enjoy belting him or her with your paws. Are you Boerwar’s nasty cats?
One introduction to the protest had my OH in stitches.
It was introduced as a ” A white collar protest”
Yes, it’s called the following election. There is the distinct possibility he lost because Labor leaning supporters were suddenly spooked by his rhetoric in the final months (like going on Today Tonight to discuss a big Labor conspiracy) and were worried he would support a Liberal government. It’s also possible that the fact the Greens preferenced Labor over him may have had an effect. There are far too many variables to claim one particular thing tilted the election.
Courts deal with the law, not what or wasn’t fair election tactics. If no laws were broken, the courts can’t do anything – the same reason why the Lib activists were told to piss off when they wanted to appeal the election because of the how to vote card nonsense.
The election was fair, he lost. If he wants, run in 2014. Run on a platform of being Mitchell’s “true voice” etc. but crying foul and going on these Quixotic windmill-tilting campaigns just makes him look delusional and ungracious.
“I still don’t understand why anyone responds to TTH, unless he or she is just a wee mouse and you enjoy belting him or her with your paws. Are you Boerwar’s nasty cats?”
Truthy feels the love with us lefties.
Says the one who constantly spams this blog with his white noise-like, party line rhetoric…
billy (from previous thread)
I have just got home from a long day at work and saw that (missing) link you directed to me. Very interesting. There is just so much we don’t yet know.
Thanks.
HSO wrote –
Well only the terminal naive or brain dead seem to do it.
They must know they are *playing the fools game* but some still do it.
Every time they respond to *it* they just encourage the wuckfit to keep it going.
Because it’s more interesting than just saying “I agree” with everyone else.
Scorpio
Fran Kelly certainly does a great job at undercutting my contention that the ABC isn’t biased against Labor…!
I”m afraid I rspond because patent nonsense makes me mad!
Silly, I know, but there you have it. I managed to respond to MPM as well — though I suspect he/she/it has changed name because he/she/it was being ignored.
Andrew Elder has a very interesting piece which is based on Barry OFarrell here in NSW, but also has a broader message on the interaction of politics and media. I have had too much merlot this evening to really draw out the comparison, but I wonder whether Rudd’s approach also is based upon looking to change the rules of the game with the media
[It’s true that in a close-run election, in recent years at least, a tight media strategy has been shown to be crucial. You need to keep your media profile up…The thing is, the next state election doesn’t look anything like close. Most likely O’Farrell doesn’t need to worry about his opposition because they’re still in the process of doing themselves in. O’Farrell is playing a longer game than the media cycle allows. Those who live and die by the media cycle find his tactics perplexing; more perplexing still is the fact that he isn’t playing the game….
Malcolm Colless of The Australian called for O’Farrell to be replaced by Joe Hockey or Malcolm Turnbull, because Hockey and Turnbull know how to work the media — i.e. they treat journalists like crucial political players. This isn’t the media reflecting on O’Farrell’s weakness, but on its own.]
http://newmatilda.com/2010/06/08/gentle-reminder-barry-ofarrell
Because troothy is like a strange fungus that sprung up in a petri dish in a dark corner, you just feel compelled to visit it every now and then to remind yourself just how weird things can get. Diversity is good but entertainment is better.
“I still don’t understand why anyone responds to TTH, unless he or she is just a wee mouse and you enjoy belting him or her with your paws. Are you Boerwar’s nasty cats?”
I try not to, but sometimes his utterances offer a look into what must be a wierd and dark space to be in. I do sometimes feel like washing afterwards though.
Apart from that if no-one ever responded he may just leave the blog entirley and that would seriously reduce the entertainment value as some of his stuff is just soooooo freaky as to be hilarious.
The most interesting thing about PB is not the sum of its parts but the actual integers
As regards truthy,each to his/her own
These billionaires are not miners – they are executives of international mining conglomerates. As someone else has suggested, this is the equivalent of terming the Coles and Woolies supermarket executives cashiers.
Stateline WA – The Battle For Canning, Can Labor Survive the Backlash – wtte.
On in 30 minutes – expect anything BUT a fair story.
Public service announcement (or maybe I’m just an enthusiastic latecomer?)
Any South Aussies who have a library card can gain free access to the full electronic version of just about every major newspaper in the world here:
http://www.libraries.sa.gov.au/site/page.cfm?u=213
Oh, and The Australian
Paap
Here in NSW you can also access the genealogy sites via your local library
as any one noticed that abc is really going to the pack every where.
they said we where going to have an Agatha Christie season, even got oh to turn of the football low and be hold repeats again.
Gus, my genealogy Kraut/Pom/Frog just makes me want to go to war with myself so i try to avoid it
my say..
Yes very poor form, repeats on a friday night.
paap
LOL
tho I love baiting the MIL over her chartist forebear
[Public service announcement (or maybe I’m just an enthusiastic latecomer?)
Any South Aussies who have a library card can gain free access to the full electronic version of just about every major newspaper in the world here:
http://www.libraries.sa.gov.au/site/page.cfm?u=213%5D
PAAPTSEF
Thanks, but I cannot find the newspapers link. Can you assist?
[Yes very poor form, repeats on a friday night.]
they may think every one loves football. same as they think every one loves abbott
perhpas
[as any one noticed that abc is really going to the pack every where.
they said we where going to have an Agatha Christie season, even got oh to turn of the football low and be hold repeats again.]
Yes, my say, the Friday 8:30 timeslot has been excellent but this (repeated) lightweight stuff does not at all enthuse.
[Oh, and The Australian]
have been doing some work on the family tree and was told by some one who does alot of this, that expect in the near future to have to pay for this site.
BK,
1) Select your library from the drop down menu below.
2) A new page will open. Enter your member number in the BARCODE field and click “Sign in”. (note: your member number starts with an “x” followed by 10 digits)
3) Hover over ‘Select title’ at the top of the page on the right hand side to select your newspaper
Thanks PAAP – I’ll have a crack.