The latest weekly Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor shedding another two points on the primary vote – down over the last three surveys from 42 per cent to 40 per cent to 38 per cent – and the dividend again being picked up by the Greens, who have gone from 8.5 per cent to 11 per cent to 13 per cent. The Coalition is down half a point to 41 per cent. As a result there is only a slight change on the two-party vote, with Labor’s lead down from 52-48 to 51.5-48.5. There seems to be an anomaly with the “others” rating, which has supposedly jerked up from an anomalous 2 per cent to 6.5 per cent. The fact that last week’s figures only add up to 97 per cent probably has something to do with this.
Elsewhere:
• New South Wales Labor is bracing itself for tomorrow’s Penrith by-election, which you can discuss here. Tune into this site from 6pm tomorrow for live coverage.
• The Senate passed legislation yesterday that will allow pre-poll votes cast within the relevant electorate to be treated as ordinary rather than declaration votes, and thus to be admitted to the count on election night. This will account for about 4500 votes per electorate – roughly 5 per cent of the total. Nearly 20 per cent of the votes cast in 2007 were declaration votes of various kinds, slightly under half of which were pre-polls. The bill also allows changes to enrolment to be made online, and will prevent a repeat of the Christian Democratic Party’s effort from last year’s Bradfield by-election where it fielded nine candidates without having to go to the bother of obtaining the 50 supporting signatures required of independent candidates.
• Wyong councillor John McNamara has been chosen as the new Liberal candidate for Dobell. The nomination had been vacated by the withdrawal of original nominee Garry Lee, who seems to have been pushed because his establishment of a company to take advantage of the government’s insulation scheme threatened to muddy the election campaign waters. VexNews published a colourful account from a local Liberal who tipped the outcome earlier in the week, which suggested the party does not fancy its chances in the seat.
• The Queensland Times has published a list of eight starters for the June 27 Liberal National Party preselection in the new seat of Wright, to be held following the disendorsement of Hajnal Ban. Not included are the previously discussed Bill O’Chee and Ted Shepherd. Former Blair MP Cameron Thompson appears to be the front-runner, the others being Scott Buchholz, chief-of-staff to Senator Barnaby Joyce; Richard Hackett-Jones, “a long-term tax-review campaigner who helms the Revenue Review Foundation which advocates for a uniform rate of income tax”; Bob La Castra, Gold Coast councillor and perennial preselection bridesmaid; David Neuendorf, a Lockyer councillor; Scott White, an aircraft engineer; and the unheralded Erin Kerr and Jonathan Krause.
• Yet more trouble for the Liberal National Party, with the Courier-Mail reporting local members are calling for Forde candidate Bert van Manen to be disendorsed because “he had not kept his promise to fund his own election”. While van Manen was reckoned safe for the time being, “sources admitted there had been problems and his position might come under scrutiny if there were any further issues”.
• The Liberal National Party has preselected Logan councillor Luke Smith to run against Craig Emerson in the safe Labor southern Brisbane seat of Rankin.
• The Illawarra Mercury reports former rugby league player David Boyle will withdraw as Labor candidate for the winnable south coast New South Wales seat of Gilmore, after his installation by the national executive caused an uproar in local party branches.
• Following the withdrawal of original nominee Tania Murdock, the Nationals will preselect a new candidate tomorrow for the Labor-held north coast New South Wales seat of Richmond. The preselection has attracted four candidates, an interesting turnaround on the first round when Murdock was the only person interested. According to Alex Easton of The Northern Star, the nominees are “Richmond Nationals president Alan Hunter and lawyer Jim Fuggle from the south of the electorate; and businessman Phil Taylor and pharmacist Brian Curran from the seat’s north”. Oddly, Hunter was quoted on Wednesday saying “party members would not automatically appoint a candidate if there were no stand-out nominations”, with suggestions the one-time Anthony family stronghold should be left to the Liberals.
• The Tasmanian Liberals are hawking internal polling which it says shows Labor in trouble in as many three seats, although the only figure provided – a 37 per cent primary vote tie in Bass, which would translate to a comfortable win for Labor – doesn’t bear this out. The other two seats are Braddon and, it seems, Lyons. Barnaby Joyce has today been talking of a Queensland hit-list consisting of Leichhardt, Dawson, Flynn, Longman and Wright (a slightly creative inclusion given it’s a notionally LNP new seat), with Forde as a roughie.
• Left faction powerbroker and state party assistant secretary Luke Foley has taken the place of Ian Macdonald in the New South Wales Legislative Council, following the latter’s resignation after an adverse review finding into travel expenses.
late news Chanel 7. labor primary vote down , pause
but would still cling to power
never any mention of the votes going to the greens,
they dont understand polls do they and its probably good for us they dont.
jenauthor, you missed my point. If the coalition were in power they would also have listened to the experts.
I’m sure that there would be differences. Perhaps the coalition would not have been quiet as effective in protecting the economy, and perhaps they would have allocated the stimulus money in a more effective and less wasteful way.
Skybeau
‘MWH not to mention disregarding 99% of Ken Henry’s recommendations”
Where do you get this crap? The Henry tax reform is ‘A BLUEPRINT FOR THE FUTURE’
I’m sure the Coalition would have picked it up and said, yep, at the budget we are going to announce 100 changes to the tax system.
Geeeeeeeezzzzzzzzz……..
Since when is a review a hard and fast demand for instantaneous change on all recommendations?
Fair call Dee – I guess I’m trying to illustrate the point that things would have been much worse had Rudd inherited a deficit. I’ve read Costello’s memoirs (granted bought from the $5 bargain bin!!) but he makes the point that they didn’t rely on the mining boom revenue – when it came in they used it for the personal tax cuts.
Unfortunately Rudd and Swan panicked and – as the article says – they didn’t necessarily have to implement Costello’s proposed tax cuts. What is the most worrying is the huge amounts of money they are now borrowing – you can’t disagree that they did inherit zero net debt
my say@451
Quoting Morgan – which they NEVER do.
[443
Skybeau
Frank – isn’t that the same thing? No one is allowed to have an opinion different to Rudd’s!!]
Skybeau, you are mistaken once again. Take, for example, current developments in the RSPT story, which shows that Rudd has accommodated the views of WA’s parliamentary delegation, almost to the letter. Clearly, Rudd does listen. He is, to be sure, a person with strong opinions. But that is to be admired more than regretted.
[Another Hatchet Job on Their Australian Story on Gillard – interviewing her mother who says she has a Temper etc]
i keep saying no matter what families should never give interviews.
but perhaps it was in a friendly way, all red haired girls that i know can be very
strong headed and forceful nothing wrong with that.
but hasn’t every one got a temper from time to time.
Michael Wilbur-Ham (MWH)@447
You have it. Some of the more rational in the party ( I dare say Kate Lundy for one) are leading the charge to get it dumped in favour of a voluntary filter – the original idea before St Stephen and his Australian Christian Lobby partners decided to go for moralistic broke.
[Quoting Morgan – which they NEVER do.]
yes is that good development do you think frank, as channel 7 did a good
interview with Mr. Rudd this morning, they are to be congratulated with that
as opposed to the abc and obrien.
@ Dee
[Since when is a review a hard and fast demand for instantaneous change on all recommendations?]
This actually makes me laugh. Out of one side of the coalition’s and MSM mouths they say Rudd doesn’t ever consult, but they spent the first half of his term bagging him for spending so much time and money on consultation and not ‘doing’ anything.
THey want the pie and the eating (and probably seconds as well)!
[452
Michael Wilbur-Ham (MWH)
jenauthor, you missed my point. If the coalition were in power they would also have listened to the experts.
I’m sure that there would be differences. Perhaps the coalition would not have been quiet as effective in protecting the economy, and perhaps they would have allocated the stimulus money in a more effective and less wasteful way.]
Happily what the Liberals might or might not have done will always be purely a matter hypothetical conjecture. One thing is for sure: they would have found a way to spend a lot of money in coalition seats. They would have regarded this as an effective use of public money.
[ Abbott was asked about his own daughters and that is all he was referring to!!! And if you don’t think Abbott is loosening up he has actually appeared on Joy Melbourne (Gay radio station) reckon you would ever catch Rudd there? No chance!]
i am not a bit surprised abbott would do that, because he is a hypocrite
skybeau 454
No of course they didn’t. So if the mining industry didn’t have much of an impact on the Budget bottom line, how has it been solely responsible for saving the Australian economy from the GFC? Yeah Right! You believe that, you’ll believe anything. Of course they benefited from the miners. If they didn’t then they are lying now about the impact of the RSPT and how the miners saved Oz.
Furthermore, Costello and the Libs were able to bring in surpluses by running down public services, minimal investment in infrastructure and bringing in a great big new tax (GST)
Dee my last comment was about your post 443 – not about the Henry review. Why spend 18 months and god knows how many dollars conducting a comprehensive review of the tax system if you are only going to implement 4 of 137 suggestions?
There is also the fact that a lot of what they are sprouting are outright lies – a) $500 immediate tax ededuction – you are already entitled to a $300 immediate deduction without receipts, it is not a new thing b) RSPT to pay for super – wrong, the increase from 9% to 12% is borne by employers c) small businesses will benefit from reduction in company tax rate from 30% to 28% – wrong. most small businesses are unincorporated so they are still on personal tax rates and even so the reduction will get eaten up by the SGC. Not to mention their promise not to touch the 30% PHI offset (Roxon has failed 3 times now to get the capping through) an increase in the threshold for the 20% net medical expenses offset from $1500 to $2000 hurting those who need it most annd a sudden capping on a lot of offsets which wasn’t there before, reduction of the CCTB offset – not at all socially progressive measures just ways to save money
Jen @ 432
Read the original post… mention of PM … is Tony Abbott PM …. Has he ever been PM … so it could only be…..
[Conroy, this would only be done if it had Rudd’s full backing.
It is thus mainly Rudd’s filter, and this is driven by his conservative religious views.]
]
so you have been to a causus meeting have you
Skybeau
Read the article AGAIN & ABSORB
Good night all.
[ Furthermore, Costello and the Libs were able to bring in surpluses by running down public services, minimal investment in infrastructure and bringing in a great big new tax (GST) ]
Not only that but the Liberals occupied government through a period of unprecedented global economic sunshine. Even Joyce could have run the economy in those conditions.
Shannas and Anabel Crab coming up on LL.
jaundiced view, I’m not some unthinking automaton who mostly votes Labor, but have systematically voted Green for the Senate previously. I can’t stomach that creature who writes for Crikey. Arrogant. Who could be bothered with him.
JB the GST replaced an inefficient wholesale sales tax system where you had no idea how much tax you were paying on things – either 0, 12%, 22% or 32% (e.g toothbrushes taxed at 32%, toothpaste 0% – go figure). Where it has not achieved what it should is that the agreement was that the states would receive 100% of GST revenue in return for lowering/abandoning some of their state taxes – I think BAD and FID are the only ones that have gone – they should have also addressed payroll tax, land tax, stamp duty etc
My Say
You do not believe Rudd is a religious conservative?
Jon
The drovers dog could of done it as well. I reckon Skybeau does not comprehend the economic concept of macroeconomic automatic stabilisers. I think he/she is one Great Big Liberal Party Stooge. An ignorant one to boot.
“Not only that but the Liberals occupied government through a period of unprecedented global economic sunshine.”
You seem to have forgotten the Asian economic crisis of 97/98 – which Australia avoided and the recession of 2000 which affected many western countries but not Australia.
Goodness me a Labor supporter playing the man rather than the ball – what a deviation from character!
Post me some evidence where I am wrong and I will read it otherwise pull your head in until you have some facts
[Jen how can you defend the actual figures – such as $600,000 for an 8m x 3m canteen? Would you pay that for a new house? ]
if you listened to ms gillard in parliment ( do you watch qestion time} you would of heard there was a lot of circumstances besides just building this building
so i suggest you find it in handsard are do some home work
Harry “Snapper” Organs@470
What’s that all about BB? What creature?
[Post me some evidence where I am wrong and I will read it otherwise pull your head in until you have some facts]
why do liberals have no manners
Blackburn spot on – AFC barely caused a ripple here
So it is ok for GST to replace an inefficient WST system but it is not ok for an RSPT to replace an inefficient State Based royalty system? I’m not exactly sure what items are exempt from GST. There would be distortions in the current system as well.
sorry, not BB. I mean HSO
Skybeau
Once again you trot out Lib taliking points
Anything else aside the usual C&T stuff or are we to be treated to your wilful ignorance
o and by the way schools and there buildings where neglected for years and years
howard never ever thought it was necessary for children to have decent class rooms or facilities for leaning, thank goodness some one cared about our children and the economy at the same time .
Only a labor gov would have the good sense to put the two together.
My Say
You can build a major public building – art gallery, airport or a top grade office building for $10,000 per square metre – at that rate $240,000 for a canteen.
[And if you don’t think Abbott is loosening up he has actually appeared on Joy Melbourne (Gay radio station) reckon you would ever catch Rudd there? No chance!]
Even the most cynical of us would see that as anything more than a political stunt.
And while it didn’t go nearly far enough, the govt DID legislate to grant gays/lesbians a better deal. Not good enough — but better than it was.
My say – why do Labors argue on nonsense, ignore facts, and play the man as soon as the argument looks like being lost?
I’ll give you an example – after the last Newspoll why did Rudd, Ellis, Ferguson, George, Tanner and Gillard all parrot “if an election were held today Tony Abbott would be PM” – trying to play on the perceived PERSONAL dislike of Tony Abbott in the electorate? You want to tell me they weren’t all coahed before they went in front of the media that day? Turn it up
[You do not believe Rudd is a religious conservative?]
i beleive mr rudd is his own man and a christian, with christian values that he does not wear on his sleeve like abbott.
[Fair call Dee – I guess I’m trying to illustrate the point that things would have been much worse had Rudd inherited a deficit. I’ve read Costello’s memoirs (granted bought from the $5 bargain bin!!) but he makes the point that they didn’t rely on the mining boom revenue – when it came in they used it for the personal tax cuts.
Unfortunately Rudd and Swan panicked and – as the article says – they didn’t necessarily have to implement Costello’s proposed tax cuts. What is the most worrying is the huge amounts of money they are now borrowing – you can’t disagree that they did inherit zero net debt]
They inherited from the Coalition a GROSS DEBT of $58 billion. You know, that’s GROSS DEBT. Why do Coalition spinners avoid using the term GROSS DEBT when it applies to their own side, yet forever quote the Keating GROSS DEBT figure of 96 billion?
That’s right, because it’s all about hypocrisy, spin and airbrushing over reality.
And the other point: It was the Coalition’s ideological mania for tax cuts (directed to benefit the wealthiest the most) PLUS their enormous spending that meant such a small surplus. Which in turn meant more borrowing was necessary to combat the GFC.
Crikey published an interesting article on this:
“Koukoulas: this is Howard’s deficit, not Rudd’s”
http://www.crikey.com.au/Business/20090216-Howard-and-Costellos-devastating-legacy.html
BBP
You seemed to have forgotten that the $AUS dropped to high 40’s $US, cushioning the effects of the Asian Financial Crisis (not economic).
[Skybeau]
i have been blogging here for a while now and you libs must be getting worried this is the most of your type we have had here, usually its a well mannered group
and a good chat.
My Say
School buildings have traditionally been a state responsibility, so if you have complaints about school buildings in Tasmania, just think that the ALP have been in power in Tasmania for 60 of the past 76 years in Tasmania – so if you have a problem with school buildings, you have had a long time to make a complaint. Why haven’t you?
My say
We have smacked em down on the
RSPT
BER
DDS
etc etc I suggest you let the jackalc chew there tails as they seek some form of victory
The right wing is well and truly the poor relation of Oz politics
A pointless stat.
The National Stimulas School building program is working its magic on at least three schools in Kooyong (That I have seen).
Gee that is three school that are obtaining building works from a Labor Government.
@465 black …
[Read the original post… mention of PM … is Tony Abbott PM …. Has he ever been PM … so it could only be…..]
I understood you meant Rudd, I was being facetious!
MySay schools have always been a state issue – try looking at state Labor government neglect before anything else.
I don’t really care Jen if you believe it was a political stunt – as a gay man myself I have at least heard Abbott state that he is not opposed to some legal recognition of same sex relationships – heard anything like that from Rudd? Not likely!! FFS even Penny Wong came out and said she wasn’t in favour of gay marriage!! COME ON!! I’ve heard of toeing the party line but doing it completely against your own principles like that its just beyond belief!
[ And if you don’t think Abbott is loosening up he has actually appeared on Joy Melbourne (Gay radio station) reckon you would ever catch Rudd there? No chance!]
“Loosening up”? That’s a funny way to put it. He was there to SPIN his way out of trouble.
Spin spin spin.
[Posted Friday, June 18, 2010 at 10:50 pm | Permalink
My say – why do Labors argue on nonsense, ignore facts, and play the man as soon as the argument looks like being lost?]
there is one fact you dont want to acknowledge in europe there is 25 million people out of work, if the rudd gov had done nothing like hockey and co suggested we would have unemployment of about 10 percent.
I wonder did you spend your bonus to help keep some on in work.
Suffer in the gutter, guttersufferers
😉
The AFC didn’t hurt here primarily because of Keating era economic reform. Our banks had a different attitude to risk post mid 80’s crunch, we had floated the dollar etc.
Howard/Costello really didn’t do much at all.
“i beleive mr rudd is his own man and a christian, with christian values that he does not wear on his sleeve like abbott”
If he doesn’t wear them on his sleeve, why does he make a great play of being interviewed leaving church every Sunday … I am pretty sure Tony Abbott goes to church every Sunday, does he get interviewed there? No. If Russ didn’t want to be interviewed there, his press people could utter a quiet word and he … miraculously .. wouldn’t be available.