The latest weekly Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor shedding another two points on the primary vote – down over the last three surveys from 42 per cent to 40 per cent to 38 per cent – and the dividend again being picked up by the Greens, who have gone from 8.5 per cent to 11 per cent to 13 per cent. The Coalition is down half a point to 41 per cent. As a result there is only a slight change on the two-party vote, with Labor’s lead down from 52-48 to 51.5-48.5. There seems to be an anomaly with the “others” rating, which has supposedly jerked up from an anomalous 2 per cent to 6.5 per cent. The fact that last week’s figures only add up to 97 per cent probably has something to do with this.
Elsewhere:
• New South Wales Labor is bracing itself for tomorrow’s Penrith by-election, which you can discuss here. Tune into this site from 6pm tomorrow for live coverage.
• The Senate passed legislation yesterday that will allow pre-poll votes cast within the relevant electorate to be treated as ordinary rather than declaration votes, and thus to be admitted to the count on election night. This will account for about 4500 votes per electorate – roughly 5 per cent of the total. Nearly 20 per cent of the votes cast in 2007 were declaration votes of various kinds, slightly under half of which were pre-polls. The bill also allows changes to enrolment to be made online, and will prevent a repeat of the Christian Democratic Party’s effort from last year’s Bradfield by-election where it fielded nine candidates without having to go to the bother of obtaining the 50 supporting signatures required of independent candidates.
• Wyong councillor John McNamara has been chosen as the new Liberal candidate for Dobell. The nomination had been vacated by the withdrawal of original nominee Garry Lee, who seems to have been pushed because his establishment of a company to take advantage of the government’s insulation scheme threatened to muddy the election campaign waters. VexNews published a colourful account from a local Liberal who tipped the outcome earlier in the week, which suggested the party does not fancy its chances in the seat.
• The Queensland Times has published a list of eight starters for the June 27 Liberal National Party preselection in the new seat of Wright, to be held following the disendorsement of Hajnal Ban. Not included are the previously discussed Bill O’Chee and Ted Shepherd. Former Blair MP Cameron Thompson appears to be the front-runner, the others being Scott Buchholz, chief-of-staff to Senator Barnaby Joyce; Richard Hackett-Jones, “a long-term tax-review campaigner who helms the Revenue Review Foundation which advocates for a uniform rate of income tax”; Bob La Castra, Gold Coast councillor and perennial preselection bridesmaid; David Neuendorf, a Lockyer councillor; Scott White, an aircraft engineer; and the unheralded Erin Kerr and Jonathan Krause.
• Yet more trouble for the Liberal National Party, with the Courier-Mail reporting local members are calling for Forde candidate Bert van Manen to be disendorsed because “he had not kept his promise to fund his own election”. While van Manen was reckoned safe for the time being, “sources admitted there had been problems and his position might come under scrutiny if there were any further issues”.
• The Liberal National Party has preselected Logan councillor Luke Smith to run against Craig Emerson in the safe Labor southern Brisbane seat of Rankin.
• The Illawarra Mercury reports former rugby league player David Boyle will withdraw as Labor candidate for the winnable south coast New South Wales seat of Gilmore, after his installation by the national executive caused an uproar in local party branches.
• Following the withdrawal of original nominee Tania Murdock, the Nationals will preselect a new candidate tomorrow for the Labor-held north coast New South Wales seat of Richmond. The preselection has attracted four candidates, an interesting turnaround on the first round when Murdock was the only person interested. According to Alex Easton of The Northern Star, the nominees are “Richmond Nationals president Alan Hunter and lawyer Jim Fuggle from the south of the electorate; and businessman Phil Taylor and pharmacist Brian Curran from the seat’s north”. Oddly, Hunter was quoted on Wednesday saying “party members would not automatically appoint a candidate if there were no stand-out nominations”, with suggestions the one-time Anthony family stronghold should be left to the Liberals.
• The Tasmanian Liberals are hawking internal polling which it says shows Labor in trouble in as many three seats, although the only figure provided – a 37 per cent primary vote tie in Bass, which would translate to a comfortable win for Labor – doesn’t bear this out. The other two seats are Braddon and, it seems, Lyons. Barnaby Joyce has today been talking of a Queensland hit-list consisting of Leichhardt, Dawson, Flynn, Longman and Wright (a slightly creative inclusion given it’s a notionally LNP new seat), with Forde as a roughie.
• Left faction powerbroker and state party assistant secretary Luke Foley has taken the place of Ian Macdonald in the New South Wales Legislative Council, following the latter’s resignation after an adverse review finding into travel expenses.
hughb,
Just look to see what most other OECD countries are already doing.
If Rudd had ever really intended to take real action then in his very first year he would have:
* started to reduce fuel subsidies
* started to reduce company car subsidies
* started a massive upgrade to public transport
* ended old growth logging
* started massive renewable energy funding
* enacted european style efficiency standards for equipment and housing
and I could go on. Rudd did none of the above, and still has not started.
And note that all of the above does not include an ETS or carbon tax which is of course another necessary step.
A part of being the leader is making the people aware of what is ahead if we don’t take action. This is one of Rudd’s greatest failures. As you can tell now, for many people climate change is no longer a major issue.
Rudd has failed in action. He has failed in leadership. He has failed.
I think that he never ever intended to take real action on climate change.
MWH – Join the the Liberals – you’ll feel right at home with your Anti Rudd complex.
No, MWH lives in Fawkner Park, where he forages for nuts and berries.
Kersebleptes
It depends on when we get to a zero-carbon economy. If the atmospheric level reaches 600 we certainly need to remove it from the air. The feedback loops are such that having a high CO2 level makes t harder for the Earth to absorb CO2 (a warmer ocean has a reduced CO2 uptake, as it’s less soluble). High CO2 will lead to environmental conditions that support a high CO2 environment. It also results in CO2 and other GHGs being released from other stores, like methane clathrates and permafrost.
The higher the CO2 level gets the harder it becomes to lower it.
Remember the Earth’s present climate is a warm phase of an ice age. For most of the Earth’s history it has been a lot warmer, so the tendency is for the Earth to be warmer than now.
James Hanson reckons our CO2 level should be kept to around 350ppm (it’s currently 392 ppm). Other scientists think we could deal witha CO2 level around 450ppm… But that’s only about 20 – 25 years away.
An interesting theory on the surge in Green votes from former Labor senator, John Black at Elaborate.net.au
[The sudden jump in Newspoll support for the Greens can be explained in three easy steps:
1) the new Greens don’t have kids,
2) they can afford shares and
3) they don’t like to seeing their shares trashed to pay for an ongoing stimulus splurge which can only manage to build a six cubicle school toilet block for the price of a suburban home.]
Essentially his thesis is that the “new greens’ are going to preference L-NP, not ALP.
Now, which pollster does their 2PP based on what people say and not how they voted last time?
I’m anti Rudd because I see him as little different from Howard.
I would never join the Liberals any more than I would join Labor.
Michael Wilbur-Ham (MWH)@106
Well your beloved St Bob is suggesting votes do just that – just join them and stop pretending you’re a 3rd party – you’re nothing more than Liberals with Dreadlocks.
Adele Carles proved this.
[I see him as little different from Howard]
I’m sure he speaks highly of you also.
Mr Squiggle – but if Black is right, why aren’t those voters going straight over to the libs?
Comparing the Internet with other forms of media is complete silliness. The Internet is designed from scratch to be decentralised, other media is not.
As for Adam, you’re an absolute dill for supporting the censorship policy.
Frank , do you believe there should be some sort of political Immorality Act where people cannot have sex across the poltical fence?
Michael (106), I don’t want to be rude, and everyone’s entitled to their own opinion.
But if you think Rudd is little different from Howard, then I think you might have your cranium inserted within your own fundamental orifice.
Imagine trying to classify the PollBludger site – what would it be G, PG, MA 15+ ?
Rua@last thread:
[ … and go back to living as hunter gatherers. Or maybe just gatherers…
Plus no lighting fires to cook stuff.]
No, lighting fires using wood is essentially solar powered.
No net carbon emissions.
Burning wood is harvesting solar energy.
Works for me. We’ve heated our house for 35 years using wood harvested from our garden.
Psephos @ 92 Re: Internet filtering.
How do those who support the Internet filter reconcile their standard conservative settings of being anti-communist and anti-nanny state with their ardent desire to regulate what the rest of us see and hear?
Is it too much to expect that people regulate their own consumption of information?
Why must the rest of us be shackled to the limitations of the lowest common denominator?
When I hear people commenting that they would like an Internet filter to protect their grandchildren, I wonder why, if they are so concerned, they have not installed one of the plethora of software solutions that are already available. Why is it the government’s responsibility to do so?
Do you personally think there is technical merit in the Internet filter idea or do you think it is just a convenient forum for some conservative flag-waving?
[Australian stocks have closed higher with the All Ordinaries index up 27 points to 4,574.]
Truthy’s dead cat keeps bouncin’ .
Astrobleme @ 104,
A need (from our viewpoint) to filter the atmosphere does not mean that we have the ability to do so.
We can work to enhance or maintain the planet’s ability to reduce CO2 levels in some ways, but the only big contribution we can make is to reduce emissions.
[Works for me. We’ve heated our house for 35 years using wood harvested from our garden.]
Don,
Fair enough, but should inner city dwellers burn thier patio plants, front fences or furniture?
geezlouise@115
Bedcause the software based filters can easily be circumnavigated by kids who are smarter than their parents/grandparents.
No 115
I wouldn’t bother mate – you will be snowballed with imbecility rather than cogency.
John Black is effectively accusing the average Greens voter being a Champagne Socialist …. as opposed to the Chardonnay Socialist voting for the ALP.. Tories of course favouring a full bodied Cabernet Sauvignon.
ruawake,
Inner cities would have to be banned.
Generic Person@120
Anything you say Dr Smith – – been busy paying cash for the black market Grappa ?
No 119
The Government’s filter will be as easy to circumvent as running a VPN connection
to another unfiltered country. Takes 5 minutes to set up. Routinely used by people in China.
You are kidding yourself Frank.
blackburnpseph,
Last weekend there was a very interesting blog on Crikey about Andrew Muirhead being charged with child pornography. Monday morning this whole blog was deleted, and I’ve not heard why.
So clearly some of Crikey is Refused Classification 🙁
[Now, which pollster does their 2PP based on what people say and not how they voted last time?]
Morgan and Nielsen do both, Newspoll and Galaxy do as per the last election. Although Nielsen only asks minor party voters for their leaning, whereas Morgan gets them to actually nominate.
[I’m anti Rudd because I see him as little different from Howard.
I would never join the Liberals any more than I would join Labor.]
Some people are simply a legend in their own bathroom
It’s funny that the people who know least about how technology and the Internet works think they know more about how the filter will work.
[Comparing the Internet with other forms of media is complete silliness. The Internet is designed from scratch to be decentralised, other media is not. ]
That’s a technical argument, not an argument of principle.
[Is it too much to expect that people regulate their own consumption of information?]
Provided you are consistent and argue for the abolition of all forms of censorship, in all media, at all times, then that’s a legitimate argument, although not one I agree with. If you’re not consistent, you’re just arguing for elite media to be uncensored, so that you can enjoy it, while non-elite media such as TV, which only the peasants watch, remains censored, which is just the typical snobbery of the inner city leftist elite. (Which GP seems to have joined.)
Michael Wilbur-Ham (MWH)@125
No you dimwit, it’s because the case is yet to asppear before the coursts, and some of the comments were sub-judice,.
Or are you that stupid that you want a case to be tainted ?
I don’t know how I can express the level of loathing and disgust that I feel towards both PB’s resident far right wing-nut and our loopy Greens visitor with the gutter slime comments directed towards a lovely, caring person who’s only crime it appears is to be the spouse of the PM.
Fellows, this lady in “NOT” a politician, but a private citizen who has done “NO” wrong and does not deserve to be used in a low, partisan attack on her or her character by anyone, let alone tow low life bloggers.
You’re both disgusting!
It was this government that stopped supporting upgrades to the web filtering software distributed by the Howard Government … There was a guy from GetUp (I think) on Q&A a few weeks ago who stated that it was one of the few areas where the Howard government had a superior approach to this government. The various IT people on the panel believed it was a superior and simple solution.
Frank, that is the kind of comment that disqualifies you from being taken seriously on this issue.
GP, you are probably right as the preceding comment indicates, however, I am interested in genuine replies and am willing to wade through a degree of muck to get them.
No 129
LOL you’re a hoot Adam. The technical details actually matter if the principle is actually going to hold any water.
GP is quite right. In the UAE and other parts of the Middle East , there is lots of software available that circumvents IP addresses so that people can watch whatever sort of porn they want – otherwise extremely heavily filtered. So there is no reason it can’t happen here.
Burgey (112).
Well of course Rudd is different from Howard, and Rudd has done many things that are better than what would have happened if Howard had won the last election.
But Rudd also has done many things worse than I think would have happened under Howard. Lack of action on climate change is the main one, internet censorship is another.
Both Howard and Rudd are right wing governments in the biggest sense of wanting lower taxes and reduced government services.
geezlouise@133
Typical response for someone who would have no qualms about having porn placed next to Wiggles DVDs.
No 129
Oh, so now, according to you, I think TV should remain censored because only the “peasants” watch it. What nonsense.
Looks like you’re clutching at straws while your argument falls to pieces.
[22 BH
Posted Friday, June 18, 2010 at 4:31 pm | Permalink
Psephos – can you link Senator Feeney’s speech from late yesterday please.
My OH didn’t hear it – I thought it was great so will print it out for him to read. Taa ]
is there a link please
GP, I know you’re not really that stupid. The question of whether it’s technically possible to filter the internet is clearly a different question to whether, as a matter of principle, the internet should be subject to censorship or not. As I said, it may well be technically impossible. But I want you to tell me why, in principle, the internet should exempt from the restrictions which apply to other modes of communication.
Sign him up. He was one of the most hard working, best and fairest player to come out of Argentina. We could use a bit samba from South America, rather than more of the same Dutch sambal.
[Ardiles wants Socceroos job, June 18, 2010 – 6:02PM
World Cup winner Osvaldo Ardiles wants to coach the Socceroos.
Ardiles, who won the World Cup as a player with Argentina in 1978, described coaching Australia as a wonderful job and vowed to provide a breath of fresh air if selected.
“I’m very interested (in Australia),” Ardiles told AAP in Johannesburg where he is working for South African television as a pundit.
“I’ve always wanted to manage a national team. I’ve been to Australia three or four times and I love it. So if it happens I would be delighted. “Australia need fresh air, something different.”]
http://www.smh.com.au/world-cup-2010/world-cup-news/ardiles-wants-socceroos-job-20100618-ymj5.html
Yesterday’s Senate Hansard
http://www.aph.gov.au/hansard/senate/dailys/ds170610.pdf
GP
If the Govt cannot filter the intertubes why are you and others worried about the Govt filtering the intertubes?
Personally, I thought we had moved beyond the whole censorship thing. As a parent, I see it as my duty to monitor what my children see and hear, not only the internet, TV etc. You can’t be everywhere, it is a mixture of trust and education – something which their school pays a lot of attention to.
More of a worry is Robert McClelland’s electronic supervision thing, where everything we do can be dredged up later. And even worse, they are being so secretive about it.
[Oh, so now, according to you, I think TV should remain censored because only the “peasants” watch it.]
Yes, that’s what I think.
Psephos, interesting classifications you place on the different channels of delivery. I’m afraid the reality of the situation will defy your attempt to drag in the old elitism argument. For example, what about children that watch TV over the Internet, is that peasant or elitist?
I would be genuinely interested to hear your responses to the other questions.
[World Cup winner Osvaldo Ardiles wants to coach the Socceroos.]
Great idea, we should be playing Sth American style football not boring Dutch football, Ossie Ardiles would be perfect – except for the team he played for in the UK.
Finns
I thought Ruud Gullit was the most likely to take over.
[As a parent, I see it as my duty to monitor what my children see and hear, not only the internet, TV etc. ]
So you’re in favour of the abolition of the classification system for TV? You’re happy with Teenage Cum Whores II screening at 5pm? So long as you’re consistent that’s fine, I respect libertarian views.
No 140
The Internet is unlike other modes of communication. It has almost singehandedly liberated millions of people, created millions of jobs, changed the direction of politics. Any Government which wishes to place a clamp on the Internet is afraid of the Internet. It is afraid of not having control.