The latest weekly Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor shedding another two points on the primary vote – down over the last three surveys from 42 per cent to 40 per cent to 38 per cent – and the dividend again being picked up by the Greens, who have gone from 8.5 per cent to 11 per cent to 13 per cent. The Coalition is down half a point to 41 per cent. As a result there is only a slight change on the two-party vote, with Labor’s lead down from 52-48 to 51.5-48.5. There seems to be an anomaly with the “others” rating, which has supposedly jerked up from an anomalous 2 per cent to 6.5 per cent. The fact that last week’s figures only add up to 97 per cent probably has something to do with this.
Elsewhere:
• New South Wales Labor is bracing itself for tomorrow’s Penrith by-election, which you can discuss here. Tune into this site from 6pm tomorrow for live coverage.
• The Senate passed legislation yesterday that will allow pre-poll votes cast within the relevant electorate to be treated as ordinary rather than declaration votes, and thus to be admitted to the count on election night. This will account for about 4500 votes per electorate – roughly 5 per cent of the total. Nearly 20 per cent of the votes cast in 2007 were declaration votes of various kinds, slightly under half of which were pre-polls. The bill also allows changes to enrolment to be made online, and will prevent a repeat of the Christian Democratic Party’s effort from last year’s Bradfield by-election where it fielded nine candidates without having to go to the bother of obtaining the 50 supporting signatures required of independent candidates.
• Wyong councillor John McNamara has been chosen as the new Liberal candidate for Dobell. The nomination had been vacated by the withdrawal of original nominee Garry Lee, who seems to have been pushed because his establishment of a company to take advantage of the government’s insulation scheme threatened to muddy the election campaign waters. VexNews published a colourful account from a local Liberal who tipped the outcome earlier in the week, which suggested the party does not fancy its chances in the seat.
• The Queensland Times has published a list of eight starters for the June 27 Liberal National Party preselection in the new seat of Wright, to be held following the disendorsement of Hajnal Ban. Not included are the previously discussed Bill O’Chee and Ted Shepherd. Former Blair MP Cameron Thompson appears to be the front-runner, the others being Scott Buchholz, chief-of-staff to Senator Barnaby Joyce; Richard Hackett-Jones, “a long-term tax-review campaigner who helms the Revenue Review Foundation which advocates for a uniform rate of income tax”; Bob La Castra, Gold Coast councillor and perennial preselection bridesmaid; David Neuendorf, a Lockyer councillor; Scott White, an aircraft engineer; and the unheralded Erin Kerr and Jonathan Krause.
• Yet more trouble for the Liberal National Party, with the Courier-Mail reporting local members are calling for Forde candidate Bert van Manen to be disendorsed because “he had not kept his promise to fund his own election”. While van Manen was reckoned safe for the time being, “sources admitted there had been problems and his position might come under scrutiny if there were any further issues”.
• The Liberal National Party has preselected Logan councillor Luke Smith to run against Craig Emerson in the safe Labor southern Brisbane seat of Rankin.
• The Illawarra Mercury reports former rugby league player David Boyle will withdraw as Labor candidate for the winnable south coast New South Wales seat of Gilmore, after his installation by the national executive caused an uproar in local party branches.
• Following the withdrawal of original nominee Tania Murdock, the Nationals will preselect a new candidate tomorrow for the Labor-held north coast New South Wales seat of Richmond. The preselection has attracted four candidates, an interesting turnaround on the first round when Murdock was the only person interested. According to Alex Easton of The Northern Star, the nominees are “Richmond Nationals president Alan Hunter and lawyer Jim Fuggle from the south of the electorate; and businessman Phil Taylor and pharmacist Brian Curran from the seat’s north”. Oddly, Hunter was quoted on Wednesday saying “party members would not automatically appoint a candidate if there were no stand-out nominations”, with suggestions the one-time Anthony family stronghold should be left to the Liberals.
• The Tasmanian Liberals are hawking internal polling which it says shows Labor in trouble in as many three seats, although the only figure provided – a 37 per cent primary vote tie in Bass, which would translate to a comfortable win for Labor – doesn’t bear this out. The other two seats are Braddon and, it seems, Lyons. Barnaby Joyce has today been talking of a Queensland hit-list consisting of Leichhardt, Dawson, Flynn, Longman and Wright (a slightly creative inclusion given it’s a notionally LNP new seat), with Forde as a roughie.
• Left faction powerbroker and state party assistant secretary Luke Foley has taken the place of Ian Macdonald in the New South Wales Legislative Council, following the latter’s resignation after an adverse review finding into travel expenses.
#397
[ So sorry that you have caught GP’s disease ]
Has he had the applause too ?
😆
Jen don’t let the facts get in the way again – Abbott was asked how he would advise HIS OWN DAUGHTERS (not every woman in the country) about how to treat their virginity – and of course you all jumped on it and started chanting “get your rosaries off my ovaries” or some such – yet not 2 weeks later Gillard was asked about tattoos on women and she said she was really against it! Who was addressing all women? Gillard!!!! Abbott was asked about his own daughters and that is all he was referring to!!! And if you don’t think Abbott is loosening up he has actually appeared on Joy Melbourne (Gay radio station) reckon you would ever catch Rudd there? No chance!
“He says construction costs have also been higher under the BER program because it was rushed and building work had to be done during school terms”
Why on earth are they only building during school terms? At our school (in Victoria) , the noisiest work was done over the Christmas holidays despite the close down. Can’t find any reference to this comment anywhere else but if they can’t build during school terms no wonder the overheads are enourmous with stopping and starting.
@MWH
[I think that it is very likely that if the Liberals had won the last election that they would have implemented a stimulus package.]
I am sure they would have, but it would have been much smaller and not staged to have short, medium and long term benefits. The result, I expect, would have been a short shot in the arm, followed by falling off a cliff (going by Costello/Howard’s other policies).
Don’t forget — the current liberal front bench has few economic experts — and I know you would be appalled if Barnaby got his hands on the finances, just like he rest of us. Hockey is a lwayer, as is Bishop — who would have had the nod first off if they were if govt.
Applause
Youg peter?
You are still to gain the N
let alone the clap or the cheer
Winston @ 361
It seems pretty clear now that, even if the Government won’t use the word ‘compromise,’ the current consultations with the Mining Sector will eventually result in some change in the RSPT as it was originally proposed, and that is the climate in which this question has been asked, so whilst your interpretation of the results can be construed having some validity, that doesn’t make your analysis of the data correct.
Analysed in context the point I was making was that the simplistic dichotomy of opposition/support for the RSPT as imbedded in the current wider media narrative of ‘the RSPT debate is hurting the Government’ may not be true.
And don’t assume that the 1,200 sample size mentioned is as exclusive, or unique as you imply – there are more things in heaven and earth than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
[369
Skybeau
….. and let’s be honest how many of you actually felt any impact from the GFC regardless of what Rudd and Swan claim they have done?]
The data showed the GFC had a very dramatic effect on hours worked, employment, output, investment, pubic finances, demand for credit, the exchange rate….amongst others. The Government acted with great speed and vision to protect the economy, including in particular the banking sector. Their energy absolutely certainly prevented a recession from occurring in Australia. There is no doubt about that at all.
You may have forgotten, but in late 2008 it was almost impossible for non-bank financial institutions to roll over their debts in the US capital markets – posing a very big threat to the mortgage market in Australia – and for a while it was not possible for even the biggest commercial banks to raise loans overseas at affordable interest rates. This posed a very profound risk to the Australian economy to which the Government and its agencies, especially the RBA, responded with energy and purpose, matching monetary and fiscal policy to the demands of the situation.
The Opposition make light of all this. But we are very fortunate not to be experiencing high unemployment, business closures, assets depreciation, the loss of savings and all the personal hardship entailed by such troubles.
For what it is worth, the GFC is not yet over. There are grave problems in Europe and recession is menacing again in the US. Only an imbecile takes these things lightly or asserts that it was all a fuss about nothing.
Another Hatchet Job on Their Australian Story on Gillard – interviewing her mother who says she has a Temper etc.
Joffa – the two quarters Rudd and Swan so trumpet when the stimulus was at its peak actually went +0.2 and -0.4 – overall -0.2 – but not 2 consecutive negative so we don’t have to use the dreaded “R” word!
MWH
[jenauthor – the internet filter, which at one stage was going to ban x-rated content, must be supported by Rudd. That a man is now in a NSW jail for selling porn is in part due to Rudd.]
You misrepresent me Michael — I have made absolutely no mention of the filter at all, except to say that Conroy feels he is on an ideological mission (you should understand that — your posts on CC show the same).
Having a son who is a senior programmer/engineer, I know that filters are unlikely to work.
That said, trusting parents at this time to know what their kids are up to — can’t feel confdent because most parents are not yet tech savvy enough. The next generation, however ….
Where did you download that from Briefly?
Skybeau
So Jen you can say that with a straight face?
” Disingenous Jen – we avoided the GFC cos of many things that Rud had nothing to do with – banking regulation set in place by Hawke, personal super set in place by Keating, and large surplus inherited from Howard – personally my $900 stimulated New Zealand so that didn’t really work did it?”
So you disagree with the IMF & Treasury? And you gladly took the $900? Mmmm……
Strange you should hold the above opinion. It sounds mightily like the one Abbott expressed. Except the NZ PM said he was an idiot. NZ’s Chief economist & the conservative PM said they had wished they followed the Rudd, Swan stimulus program. Both said for Abbott to claim NZ got it right by not doing so is just plain wrong. The PM said that NZ aspires to the ALP economic strategy.
It is very difficult to create a distinction between the two parties on basic economic policies. Both are driven by the treasury experts almost all the time. Especially in times of crisis. Sometimes we political tragics have to recognise the limits of the shiny bum nongs we may elect; argue over; possibly briefly admire; and then reject. The real expertise lies with less public and more permanent figures in smaller offices within smaller buildings.
Frank, Jesus Christ had a temper as the traders in the Temple would testify … it is just a sign of being human. So Julia Gillard has a temper, so what, but is she rude, patronising, condescending, etc to those lower down the pecking order as the PM is reported to be – those things are important.
What is wrong with the Krauts tonight. Why are they not 5-0 already with the Serbs, instead of 0-0
Frank
[interviewing her mother who says she has a Temper etc.]
Surely most people would ask, what red-hair does not? 😀
I reckon that an attempted character assassination along those lines will find it hard to get much traction in the general population
Blackburn – they can build in more allowances and therefore charge more! Your kids don’t happen to be at a Catholic school do they? They seem to be much better money mangers (up to 75% so…)
[411
Skybeau
Where did you download that from Briefly?]
From my own built-in cerebral cortex Skybeau. What do you use for a brain?
Skybeau kiwi 369 went
Well another view about that is here –
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/THE-DISTILLERY-The-invisible-bail-out-pd20100616-6FV5R?OpenDocument
Dee – I would like Swan to acknowledge JUST ONCE that he inherited an economy in very good shape – regardless of party differences. A lot of the countries badly affected by the GFC were carrying deficits when it hit so were less able to do anything about it – but we had money in the bank.
I smell rat here. Germany down to 10 men and then Serbia scored 1-0.
Briefly
Nice shot that Sir
😉
Skybeau, people pay attention to what politicians say — your Julia quote on tattoos reinforces it.
But Abbott puts these things out in the public arena. Just like fools like Joyce does. I may be deaf but I haven’t heard anything of the like from Rudd.
To compare Julia’s comment on tattoos to virginity for a girl, is quite bizarre.
The Finnigans@421
But did the erstwhile 11th German transgress?
Skybeau the big difference at catholic schools is that the principals specified what they wanted and they got what they wanted as long it was in budget. The Catholic Education Office oversee the contracts and prokect management but the principal and the parish priest attend meetings and remain involved. Each school is a one off project. I think one major difference is that furniture and fittings are not included in the Catholic school budget so these need to be paid for of school fees or fund raising.
[408
Frank Calabrese
Another Hatchet Job on Their Australian Story on Gillard – interviewing her mother who says she has a Temper etc.]
Let us hope Australian Story never trouble your mother, Frank.
[ The filter will stop accidental hits, casual browsing and dampens an opposition wedge. ]
With all due respect that has to be the worst justification for the filter I have ever heard. This is hardly a progressive act.
*dips head to Gusface*
jenauthor,
The Greens did not support Rudd’s stimulus package because Rudd said so.
Rudd gave treasury permission to fully brief the Greens, and based on the expert economic advice they decided to support the stimulus.
One of the problems with the Rudd government is that far too often they don’t listen to advice. Statements like “How could they have known that the insulation scheme would be rorted?” ignore the fact that there is a public service whose job it is to know about such things, and, if they get the opportunity, to advise the government.
Climate change is another good example. Garnaut was not too bad. Rudd then ignored much of what Garnaut said to produce his CPRS.
[But did the erstwhile 11th German transgress?]
JV, he came, he saw and he fainted.
briefly@426
WellI have no plans to be involved in any activity which will require an Australian Story. 🙂
@ Black…..
[but is she rude, patronising, condescending, ]
are you trying to describe Abbott or Rudd?
Jen you have missed my point – Abbott was asked a question about HIS OWN DAUGHTERS (no one else) and answered it. La Gillard took it upon herself to express her own opinion about every woman in the country who has tattoos. Can you see the difference? and the hypocrisy when she screeched her head off about Abbott’s comments (which were, once again, an honest answer to a question about his own daughters – NO ONE ELSE)
MWH not to mention disregarding 99% of Ken Henry’s recommendations
jenauthor, You said that Rudd was not religiously driven like Abbott.
My response is that the internet filter is religiously driven, and though presented by Conroy, this would only be done if it had Rudd’s full backing.
It is thus mainly Rudd’s filter, and this is driven by his conservative religious views.
Blackburn – sorry not having a go! Still interesting that catholic projects are costing a quarter of state ones – and Henry Grossek has made the point that public schools are also having to find money for fitouts out of their own budgets
[431
Frank Calabrese
Well, I have no plans to be involved in any activity which will require an Australian Story.]
More is the pity, Frank. You would be a staunch advocate.
MWH you’re half right I think – yes it is religion driven but it is also a potentially nasty tool to ban every site the government doesn’t want you to read – regardless of whether it is legal or not
Jon@427
Yes, and I can’t understand why the party stalwarts feel obliged to continue defending it when it is about to be buried as deep as magma. (Maybe it could be used to help plug the oil blow-out in the Mexican Gulf. :lol:)
Wait until the burial ceremony and see if you can get a conversation as to its, or Conroy’s, merits with our party terriers.
MWH
[The Greens did not support Rudd’s stimulus package because Rudd said so. ]
I never mentioned the greens with regards to stimulus — I know the story there.
The question was: what would the coalition have done in the same circumstances. They would have missed the boat, most likely, and jumped in too late with tax cuts that would have taken a year to filter through (not what was needed at all). Costello said quite clearly that that would have been his advice.
SKY
[Jen you have missed my point]
Got your point, didn’t think it merited.
Frank – isn’t that the same thing? No one is allowed to have an opinion different to Rudd’s!! When you have Simon Crean asking his staff to please tell him what they hear from Rudd as he’s never informed you just get more confirmation that Rudd feels he has to have his thumbprint on everything
Skybeau
This is not that complimentary to Rudd but is quite to the point.
The most important point is the ‘surplus’ myth. Read it and ABSORB from someone in Coalition headquarters.
I posted this on the last blog.
George Megalogenis explains:
Re:George Megalogenis explains … Reply to this message
Dear PCFC,
Let me put it this way. Peter Costello (PC) warned of a financial tsunami ahead of the last election.
But he was so confident of the BB (bottom line) that he announced a tax cut worth $34bn over three years at the same time the world was turning to mud.
Kevin Rudd didn’t want to lose the election, and didn’t really have a clue about the financial tsunami coming, so he took PC at his word and matched 90% of the tax cut-$30bn over three years.
Labor’s first budget in office implemented the tax cut and also paid for all other election promises. They delivered a surplus larger than the one PC left behind.
But I call that PC’s surplus nonetheless because Labor did not add a dollar of net spending in its 2008-9 budget.
Now we’ve seen the GFC hit, as PC predicted. But it smashed his surplus. Who to blame for this?
You can see what happened to the surpluses with the big white chunks on the graph. They are the surpluses that PC left us for 2008-8 thru 2011-12.
They were not worth the paper they were printed on.
Now Labor has added to the deficit, but have a good look again at the graph. Outside of the financial year we are in, 2008-9, Labor did not “create” any deficit.
PC & the GFC did that all by themselves.
Now you and I know this is a policy blog. I liked the way you feigned confusion in your post but you are smart enough to realise a flaw in logic when you see it.
PC’s surplus plus tax cuts plus GFC does not add up. The problem begins with him, I’m sorry to say.
The problem becomes your granddaughters if Labor can’t fix it. On that we are agreed.
Well read it closer then Jen – you can understand the difference between an answer given to a question about 3 women as opposed to ann unsolicited generalisation about all women?
Moralising by politicians in general is hypocritical, whether its Abbott and virginity, Rudd and his filter, Julia and tattoos or Bob Brown and his environmental puritanism. They should all just bugger off and worry about something more important.
The Finnigans@430
Pathetic – They’ve gone soft. It wouldn’t have happened at Stalingrad.
Skybeau, I agree that a hidden purpose of the internet filter is to prevent viewing of opinions and information which the government thinks are damaging to mere mortals such as us.
But I think that this feeling of ‘we know what is best for you’ also comes from a conservative religious background. After all, in any conservative religion you are told what to think by the authority figure.
I keep reading how this is so outrageous. Mostly by people who don’t have a clue about the costs of one-off commercial construction. I’m currently being kept awake some nights by noise emanating from the rebuilding and minor enlargement of this roundabout. As you can see it’s nothing flash, just a small roundabout. It’s costing $720,000. Another, slightly bigger one a few kilometres away is going to set tax and ratepayers back a cool $1,500,000.
Not far from the roundabout is this public dunny (yes the modest black roofed building in the centre of frame) which 14 years ago Downer talked the Howard government into paying the lions share. It cost 3 times what I paid a year earlier for the construction of my house. Both have the same number of toilet bowls. I suppose most of the extra must have been for the additional urinal.
JV, Australia still can top the Group if it beats Ghana by 10-0 and then Serbia by 8-0 and that would make Stalingrad looks like Sunday picnic.
The elephant in the room is Work Choices.
If the Libs had won the last election we’d not only have the GFC, but we’d have Work Choices as well.
Add ut all up, Bludgers: GFC, Work Choices, no Stimulus, no BER… it’s too horrible to contemplate.. but that’s the REAL bullet we dodged: an indursty package desgined to render workers in this country serfs to their employers, and just the situation to give it full rein.
Even Truthy (who voted for Rudd, against Work Choices) would be turning in his intellectual grave.