Morgan has published its first face-to-face poll conducted on Julia Gillard’s watch, other recent efforts having been phone polls. This one combines polling conducted over the last two weekends, and it shows Labor’s two-party lead up from 53-47 in the last poll under Rudd to 56.5-43.5. Those of you who have already looked at the Morgan press release might be surprised to learn this, as the headline figure is 55-45. This is because Morgan has apparently decided to switch from the “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2007 election” measure to “preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote”, and as has been widely noted this is less favourable for Labor. The Morgan headline’s statement that Labor has picked up a 6 per cent swing is based on comparison with last week’s anomalous phone poll result. Interestingly, the poll reports the opening of a huge gender gap, with Labor leading 60.5-39.5 among women and trailing 50.5-49.5 among men. The primary vote has Labor up 4.5 per cent on the last poll under Rudd, with the Coalition down three points to 38 per cent and the Greens down two to 10.5 per cent. Curiously, the sample was only 299 for the first of the two weekends, immediately after the leadership change, which explains the lack of a face-to-face result last week. The more recent weekend’s sample was a more normal 879.
A bit of federal news:
• South Australian Labor Senator Annette Hurley, who had the top position on the Senate ticket for the coming election, has instead announced she will retire. Her Right faction must now decide who will replace her as candidate for one of the two unloseable positions, the other of which is held by Left faction incumbent Anne McEwen. Another incumbent, Dana Wortley of the Left, is expected to remain in third place (UPDATE: I am informed Wortley is now in the Right, which has mostly absorbed the “Duncan Left” sub-faction of which she formed part).
• Denis Atkins of the Courier-Mail last week quoted a “senior Queensland LNP campaign official”. Herbert and Petrie in particular are nominated as seats Labor is now likely to win.
• Andrew Wilkie will be making yet another bid for parliament, this time as an independent in Denison. He narrowly failed to win one of the five Denison seats at the March state election, polling 8.4 per cent of the vote.
New South Wales news:
• State Greens upper house MP Sylvia Hale has failed to win her preselection bid for the inner-city seat of Marrickville, which the party is expected to win at the election in March. They have instead nominated the candidate from the 2007 election, Marrickville deputy mayor Fiona Byrne. The NSW Greens have also been struggling with the revelation of Lee Rhiannon, currently in the state upper house and endorsed to run in the Senate at the coming federal election, has used state parliamentary resources on her federal campaign. Bob Brown has called on her to resign her upper house seat sooner rather than later, but she is insisting she will resign when the election is called.
• The Wentworth Courier has published a list of Vaucluse Liberal preselection hopefuls which includes former Malcolm Turnbull staffer Anthony Orkin, together with previously noted “PR professional Mary-Lou Jarvis, Woollahra mayor Andrew Petrie, Woollahra councillor Peter Cavanagh, restaurateur Peter Doyle”.
• The Daily Telegraph reports on nightmarish opinion polling for the NSW Labor government.
[Bit like being in the ALP and arguing that Rudd’s axing was all just news limited propaganda.]
No, not very like it at all, actually.
Chris Curtis
g’dayu , yes all serous Labor people know what you said re DLP history is pro union from your earlier posts , but some here ignore facts and rely on snips spin
any chanse that DLP will preference Labor ist ?
thinking of 2004 where Fielding got every damn Partys prefs incl Democrats & DLP etc ad so Labor did not get either DLP or Democrats prefs ….either of which wuld hav elected a Labor Vic Senator instead of FF via cascading
One thing about Stalin – he knew how to run a trial. 😆
Yep, and Saltin was a great leader if you simply omit his murderous oppression! 😉
The current DLP is not a continuation of the old DLP, which was wound up around 1978. It’s really just a group of anti-abortion fanatics, and it doesn’t have any real connection with the labour movement. Peter Kavanagh MLC, however, is the grandson of a Labor Deputy Premier of Victoria and still has some labour movement sympathies. That I gather is why he has fallen out with the hardliners led by Mulholland.
Is this figurative?
Not the dreaded Saltin! He was even worse than Stalin!
JV, I’m not a Christian and I’m not here to interpret the Bible for you. I was making a simple historical point about whether Jewish law is still applicable to Christians. SNIP: Abuse deleted – The Management.
[Not the dreaded Saltin! He was even worse than Stalin!]
Was Saltin the guy who send people to the salt mines?
Psephos
If appropriate for you to say, why do you think Faulkner made a public announcement of his intention to not seek a ministry after the election.
What was the upside?
[Was Saltin the guy who send people to the salt mines?]
Ru, i thought that was Satan
Finns
I thought that was Abbott’s policy
So who within Labor would be leaking to the worst- Bolt and Shanahan- and why? Or where their predictions just wishful thinking that came true??
[Mathew 10:37 He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me.]
Laocoon, is this Abbott’s policy as well.
And Musslolini was a great public works leader if you omit his domestic death squads and foreign annexations.
This revisionism thing applied to dud politicians is easy. Simply ‘omit’ the disasters. 😆
[So who within Labor would be leaking to the worst- Bolt and Shanahan- and why? Or where their predictions just wishful thinking that came true??]
The timing of a challenge was not rocket science, it had to happen before the “long winter break”.
JV, are you trying to be funny, religious or a dickhead?
Finns, come the election, hopefully we find that Australians are people who love their fathers and mothers, sons and daughters 😀
[JV, are you trying to be funny, religious or a dickhead?]
At least two of the three.
[If appropriate for you to say, why do you think Faulkner made a public announcement of his intention to not seek a ministry after the election.]
I suppose because he thought it was the right thing to do. He plays a very straight bat.
[JV, are you trying to be funny, religious or a dickhead?]
The effect is much the same whichever it is.
Just looked up the show trials. They were conducted in Czechoslovakia too:
Anyone here want to admit to being a ‘Trotskyist-zionist-titoist-bourgeois-nationalist traitor’? If so, There are some roadworks near me just waiting for your ashes. 😆
Thanks Psephos; I am not in the political process at all, but does strike me as an odd approach.
JV
What was a bloody disgrace was how pilots who had served in the RAF during WW2 from Eastern European countries were treated when they got back home. Thanks for fighting Nazi Germany now enjoy prison and hard labour because you decided to fight for freedom and democracy…can’t have that in our Communist paradise!
“Just looked up the show trials. They were conducted in Czechoslovakia too: ”
And in Romania, Hungary, Poland, Yugoslavia, Bulgaria and Albania.
They were the standard modus operandi of an evil regime.
A good film that I can recommend Bludgers on this topic is ‘Dark Blue World’ about the Czechs who fought in the RAF during Battle of Britain/WW2.
Chris, Adam
Would you agree that the SDA faction of the Victorian Right is the DLP incarnate?
Glen and others
The injustices dealt out to the Polish Home Army have been well documented. After all, Stalin just stood by and let the Germans put down the Warsaw uprising so that he would not have to wipe out the anti communist poles.
It is much appreciated by the way. History is a subject that never gets boring for me!
Yes, my father was one of the Lithuanian ones. He didn’t come here under Menzies, however; he was welcomed to Australia by Chifley, as Labor was still in power.
Very different situation, however; he was in an internment camp in Europe, waiting resettlement, not risking his life in a leaky boat. Didn’t particularly care (neither do most refugees, who after all are ‘seeking refuge’) where he ended up.
The proposal seems to be that we avoid the leaky boat issue by bringing refugees here by the boatload* ourselves (and please, correct me if I’ve misunderstood you).
*I assume this includes flying them in.
So, further questions (I’m getting quite Socratic in my approach):
1. Do we wait until they get into a boat, intercept them on the high seas, load them up in one of our ships and then bring them to the mainland for processing?
2. Or do we go to the camps and select them from there?
If 2.
i. How is this different from our actions? (which obviously do not deter people from getting into leaky boats, because of the lengths of the queues).
ii. How many do we take?
If i & ii are not done differently to the way they’re done at present, then the ‘queues’ get too long and those with the resources to do so will look at other ways of getting here.
To me, to say we get them here and process them doesn’t seem to be any different to what we do at present with ‘regular’ asylum seekers (those who come by plane). Processing asylum seekers on the mainland (however they get to the mainland to start with) thus does not solve the leaky boat problem.
The bottom line surely has to be minimising the loss of human lives.
Well, time for today’s score.
Abbott was virtually invisible today and while that has been working for him while Gillard&Co were kicking own goals, it does not work on a day like today. Gillard looked very prime ministerial, Faulkner looked very ministerial and Houston looked very CIC. All the right things were done and said. Gillard firmly and simply restated our war policy and the reasons why we are there.
Therefore todays is a clear win for Gillard. 2 points.
This brings the cumulative tally for day four to four points each to Gillard and Abbott.
Glen
Does it deal fairly with the complete and utter betrayal by GB of the Czechs?
Ron (751 at 4.52pm),
Hi. The 2004 preference deal was actually an ALP-DLP-FF one, and DLP preferences, like FF preferences, would have helped elect 3 ALP senators if the ALP vote had not collapsed. Yes, I am sure the DLP will preference the ALP in some seats this year.
Psephos (754 at 4.56pm),
Yes, the current DLP is not the continuation of the original DLP, though it likes to say it is. It was formed by those who did not accept the DLP’s decision to disband in 1978. Peter Kavanagh has won the internal fight in the new DLP.
blackburnpseph (775 at 5.23pm),
There were four DLP unions that re-affiliated – the SDA, the FCU, the FIA and the ASCJ. Only the FCU had actually been affiliated with the DLP in its later years. The others were philosophically in tune. The FCU was taken over by Lindsay Tanner and then disappeared into the ASU. The FIA amalgamated with the AWU, and it is a moot point which union was the one that did the taking over. I do not know what happened to the ASCJ but I expect it too would have amalgamated with the AWU. I think the SDA preserves the attitudes of the traditional Labor men and women who founded the DLP, but the world changes; e.g., the DLP was not founded as an environmental party, yet by the 1970s it was very environmentally conscious, even adopting what is now the hardline the Greens opposition to freeways – an attitude I do not share: I love freeways!
Hmmm, Iran has actually been stoning people to death; I had not realized.
Just as well they did not know about nukes in the days when the Prophet was writing the Koran.
[Hmmm, Iran has actually been stoning people to death; I had not realized.][
Don’t worry – the Quran says it’s OK.
Wierd countries abound, everyone know how peole in the US like Madonna & the Pitts can go and choose a child for themselves. The USA, Ethiopia & Somalia are the only 3 countries not to sign the UN’s declaration on the rights of children
BK
Apparently, ‘the stone should not be so big as to kill the offender with one or two stones’
[Apparently, ‘the stone should not be so big as to kill the offender with one or two stones’
]
Yes, Boerwar, it’s all about compassion.
The stoning thing makes the St Ives Orthodox Jewish plans of using wires to turn inside outside or vice versa, I disremember which, more or less harmlessly absurd.
We live in strange times.
B
Zamzan
7 stones
cast out the devil
as you were
G
I just googled ‘Zamzan’ and got 9000+ results. Pls help.
Chris
I don’t live in Victoria and can’t comment on the DLP there. However my dad in Qld used to support them and get their newsletter, which I occaisionally read. I would say that the Qld group were to the right of the Nationals. They may have been pro-unions in principle, but certainly hated every actual union I ever read their remarks about too. Their Senate candidate in Qld wants to reject paid parental leave! How can that possibly be seen as a pro-worker policy??
http://www.dlp.org.au/index.php?page=dlp-rejects-rudd-s-parental-leave-scheme
Labor preferencing the DLP would be no better than helping get another Fielding in the Senate.
Chris
Do you think the DLP may have survived if it had renewed itself. By 1972 or 1974, the players were still the same men who had participated in the split in 1955. As an insider, was there ever a move to make way for a younger generation?
782
Here are some facts about some of the myths about freeways, public transport and cars.
http://www.ptua.org.au/myths/
Laocoon@760
Here’s one take on it from today’s SMH:
http://www.smh.com.au/national/gillards-mission-improbable-20100709-10411.html
If that’s how ‘some colleagues’ are talking then there must be some concern in the party about this, and the other right-wingers including Shorten and the ‘nobodies’: Feeney, and that South Australian senator whose name escapes me.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zamzam_Well#Origin_of_Zamzam
[When he [Abraham] left Mina and was brought down to (the defile called) al-Aqaba, the Devil appeared to him at Stone-Heap of the Defile. Gabriel said to him: “Pelt him!” so Abraham threw seven stones at him so that he disappeared from him. Then he appeared to him at the Middle Stone-Heap. Gabriel said to him: “Pelt him!” so he pelted him with seven stones so that he disappeared from him. Then he appeared to him at the Little Stone-Heap. Gabriel said to him: “Pelt him!” so he pelted him with seven stones like the little stones for throwing with a sling. So the Devil withdrew from him.[2]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoning_of_the_Devil
bbs
Speaking for moi meme the answer would be yes: Knights of the Southern Cross v the Masons.
But the times, they were a’changin’.
BK
Stonings also still happen in Saudi Arabia. I read the details of one once and they are quite barbaric. The victims are invariably women “guilty” of adultery (it is hard to convict the men because of the different witness requirements). The refusal of western governments to criticise the Saudis over this does us little credit. When the oil starts running out that is one dictatorship headed for a very nasty civil war very fast.
Socrates
I’m afraid hypocrisy becomes rampant with both the excessively religious and the oil dependent.
Does it deal fairly with the complete and utter betrayal by GB of the Czechs?
If you are talking about how after the war they did this no not specifically.
But it does show the fate of many WW2 pilots who fought to free their countries become prisoners in their own countries after the war.
Shameful stuff.