Morgan has published its first face-to-face poll conducted on Julia Gillard’s watch, other recent efforts having been phone polls. This one combines polling conducted over the last two weekends, and it shows Labor’s two-party lead up from 53-47 in the last poll under Rudd to 56.5-43.5. Those of you who have already looked at the Morgan press release might be surprised to learn this, as the headline figure is 55-45. This is because Morgan has apparently decided to switch from the “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2007 election” measure to “preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote”, and as has been widely noted this is less favourable for Labor. The Morgan headline’s statement that Labor has picked up a 6 per cent swing is based on comparison with last week’s anomalous phone poll result. Interestingly, the poll reports the opening of a huge gender gap, with Labor leading 60.5-39.5 among women and trailing 50.5-49.5 among men. The primary vote has Labor up 4.5 per cent on the last poll under Rudd, with the Coalition down three points to 38 per cent and the Greens down two to 10.5 per cent. Curiously, the sample was only 299 for the first of the two weekends, immediately after the leadership change, which explains the lack of a face-to-face result last week. The more recent weekend’s sample was a more normal 879.
A bit of federal news:
• South Australian Labor Senator Annette Hurley, who had the top position on the Senate ticket for the coming election, has instead announced she will retire. Her Right faction must now decide who will replace her as candidate for one of the two unloseable positions, the other of which is held by Left faction incumbent Anne McEwen. Another incumbent, Dana Wortley of the Left, is expected to remain in third place (UPDATE: I am informed Wortley is now in the Right, which has mostly absorbed the “Duncan Left” sub-faction of which she formed part).
• Denis Atkins of the Courier-Mail last week quoted a “senior Queensland LNP campaign official”. Herbert and Petrie in particular are nominated as seats Labor is now likely to win.
• Andrew Wilkie will be making yet another bid for parliament, this time as an independent in Denison. He narrowly failed to win one of the five Denison seats at the March state election, polling 8.4 per cent of the vote.
New South Wales news:
• State Greens upper house MP Sylvia Hale has failed to win her preselection bid for the inner-city seat of Marrickville, which the party is expected to win at the election in March. They have instead nominated the candidate from the 2007 election, Marrickville deputy mayor Fiona Byrne. The NSW Greens have also been struggling with the revelation of Lee Rhiannon, currently in the state upper house and endorsed to run in the Senate at the coming federal election, has used state parliamentary resources on her federal campaign. Bob Brown has called on her to resign her upper house seat sooner rather than later, but she is insisting she will resign when the election is called.
• The Wentworth Courier has published a list of Vaucluse Liberal preselection hopefuls which includes former Malcolm Turnbull staffer Anthony Orkin, together with previously noted “PR professional Mary-Lou Jarvis, Woollahra mayor Andrew Petrie, Woollahra councillor Peter Cavanagh, restaurateur Peter Doyle”.
• The Daily Telegraph reports on nightmarish opinion polling for the NSW Labor government.
Probably what will happen is we’ll see the egg incident interlaced with a sneering quote by Abbott or one of his front benchers about how the government is “out of touch with everyday Australians” making it look like the egg throwers is an average Joe who has just had enough…
[Morgan FTF poll yawn why bother with these rubbish FTF polls anyway they aren’t reliable.]
glen i had a lady come from morgan last year and i was totally honest in all my answers but if some one rang me and i cannot see them well i may say something just because i want to, so i may be different but face to face people usually come in have a coffee and i would never be two faced to some one i have in my home
as i said may be me
Was the egg thrown from the left or the right, politically speaking?
A Bronny Tucker ticket would energise their base voters.
[ Abbott hatched a plan to become Prime Minister, but his hopes are looking more scrambled by the day. ]
Now you are just beating things out of all proportion.
The left, apparently.
Morgan consumer confidence rating also gone up significantly – which is good, even if Poss changed his mind about there being a significant relationship between trends in consumer confidence and polling. IMHO, confident punters are happy punters and happy punters are less likely to risk happiness by a punt on someone like Abbott.
Morgan also cautions about WA and Qld mining seats. I am assuming that the caution in relation to the Qld mining seats relates to polling that has already been released and discussed. But are the WA figures a subset of the current poll – or the results of a previous poll.
If the WA figures are a subset of the current poll then we have an interesting set of conundrums:
. does WA have significantly more men than women?
. are WA women more blokish than their eastern state counterparts?
. are Eastern womens actually preferring Labor by more than 60%?
[Was the egg thrown from the left or the right, politically speaking?]
The left apparently. Well that is what the protest was about, boats and ETS.
[Abbott hatched a plan to become Prime Minister, but his hopes are looking more scrambled by the day. ]
Tone is accusing Julia of poaching his policies.
I think it was a left egg Pseph.
Abbott is probably thinking souffle, souffle, catchee boatie.
What About Me…?
Posted Friday, July 9, 2010 at 4:30 pm | Permalink
“I thought that Lee Rhianon and the Greens were a check of the major parties and actually cared about real issues. Now it seems that Rhiannon simply wants to cling to power in NSW, despite being exposed of rorting the system.”
well there goes Greens purity down drain pipes , what with Adle in WA affai8r with Libersl chair sniffin Treasurer ….and also with Tas Green Leeeder getting his mistress into not just bed but into Cabinet
Greens had no reel practical polisys to begin with , but had a false miror of purity…shattered Now all we need is a rumor of Bob and Bromwyn Bishop eying each othr
It was a woman throwing it, too….which may be why it missed…
(Oh! Sexism!)
To fund his policies Abbott will have to shell out a bundle of money.
so your all trying out do each other with eggs joke it s very enterataining.
All i know is it was one bad egg
[Greens had no reel practical polisys to begin with]
I think banning leather shoes is a pretty real policy, although I’m told it’s gone from their website now.
She may have been ovulating….
(Egg pun, not a misogynist remark)
zoomster
ABC news says a bloke has been charged.
[was a woman throwing it, too….which may be why it missed…
(Oh! Sexism!]
well what was her problem was she holding a banner.
zoomster
[Police have charged a 55-year-old Perth man with assault after the incident.]
He missed from 3 metres, wimp.
BK,
eggsactly!
Psephos went:
[Was the egg thrown from the left or the right, politically speaking?]
It was a left handed egg
So, who gets to be this election’s Humpty Dumpty?
Gillard now has another shot for her photo albumen.
Very eggs-citing. Eggs-hilarating, you could almost say…
I think we are walking on eggshells with the puns
[It was a left handed egg]
Just as well it was smashed before it could hatch, then. We don’t need any more left-wing chickens.
I don’t see what all the eggcitement is about.
Is there a pollbludger who has any faith at all in 56.5%? If punters really did this in the election, how many lower house seats would the Coalition have left?
Would the Greens hold the Senate BOP?
Whatever they throw at her, she won’t renegg on her policies.
They can protest all they want, they’ll never de-fetus!
;[I swim regularly to overcome my stress, and the exercise helps with the BP]
i never quite mastered the art of breathing under water so it one long swim to the other end these days i cannot make it with out taking a breath.
Or perhpas i just hold my head up cannot remeber but is one thing i wish i could of mastered.
As usual there are extraordinary items with the Morgan Poll results.
Why you would change your TPP reporting criteria mid-term is a bit strange, unless he’s convinced there’ll constantly be a significant difference between the last election’s flows (it’s actually the last two, as 2004 and 2007, flows from the Greens and the Others were almost the same) and this year’s flows.
Anyway, the who do you think will win shows prior to the Gillard change, ALP 53% and since the change, ALP 69%.
We might believe that’s a response to the better polls for the ALP that came out, but i suspect it has a lot more to do with a basic impression that the redhead is more electable than the nerd was, or the monk is.
can some one make a list of the egg jokes
Apparently the person who threw it was an eggnogstic
http://uncyclopedia.wikia.com/wiki/Eggnogsticism
[Is there a pollbludger who has any faith at all in 56.5%? ]
I think Possum has shown that on average Morgan is 2% better for Labor than Newspoll. If we get a 54% Newspoll next week I’ll be a happy hack. That would be best result since March (before the CPRS plunge).
Is Abbott an eggomaniac?
[It was a left handed egg]
Do I detect a Marx Bros, “Animal Crackers” devotee?
It may not have been political. He may have been trying to stop it from turning into a dead parrot.
[i never quite mastered the art of breathing under water so it one long swim to the other end these days i cannot make it with out taking a breath.
Or perhpas i just hold my head up cannot remeber but is one thing i wish i could of mastered.]
I’m no good with breath control either. Although I can hold it in for ages. So I mainly do that to minimise the amount of times I need to breathe (which at times, breaks my momentum)
Bk you may be the winner
[I’m no good with breath control either. Although I can hold it in for ages. So I mainly do that to minimise the amount of times I need to breathe (which at times, breaks my momentum)]
you have inspired me to have another go. thanks for that
[As usual there are extraordinary items with the Morgan Poll results.]
eggstraordinary, you might say.
[Bk you may be the winner]
my say
You cracked me up with that.
[ i never quite mastered the art of breathing under water ]
My say if you master that one I can confidently say you’re a fish 🙂
Psephos
Yes, 54% would be good. I assume that the polling would mostly have been done before the Timor tensions bubbled to the surface.
Having not studied bogans seriously, are lady bogans and gentleman bogans similar in their attitudes?
I reckon he was feeling eggnored
Looks like the PB site is full of eggcentrics.
[I’m really ova these puns]
Very subtle BK