The Courier-Mail has published a Galaxy poll of 1009 respondents “conducted over the weekend” which shows Labor with a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, the same as recorded in the snap poll of 800 respondents conducted on the day Julia Gillard assumed the leadership. However, Labor has lost ground on the primary vote to the Greens, down two points to 39 per cent with the Greens up three to 14 per cent. The Coalition is steady on 42 per cent. In spite of everything, two-thirds of respondents are said to support the plan on asylum seekers announced last week by Gillard, although “about six in 10” believe the measures “were not well thought out and were rushed”. The Fairfax broadsheets should come good with a Nielsen poll later this evening.
UPDATE: The Nielsen poll, conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, concurs on every particular except the Greens vote, which is at 13 per cent rather than 14 per cent. The sting in the tail for the government here is that it comes off the back of a quirkily favourable 55-45 result from Nielsen immediately after the leadership change. The poll has Julia Gillard leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 56-35, little different from her 55-34 lead previously. Approval ratings for Gillard have been gauged for the first time, and they have her at 54 per cent approve and 32 per cent disapprove. Reversing the last result, Tony Abbott is up on both approval (three points to 43 per cent) and disapproval (five points to 51 per cent), the latter shift probably reflecting an unfriendly sample last time.
A series of “best party to handle” questions turns up a surprise in giving the Coalition only a very slight 44-42 lead on asylum seekers, and when the Greens are included in the mix Labor’s score shows a six point improvement since the question was last asked in March. However, Labor would be alarmed to have slipped a further three points on the economy, with the Coalition opening up a dangerous 53-39 lead. Labor has taken four points off the Coalition as best party to handle health since March, now holding a commanding 57-33 lead that goes a fair way to explaining their latest television ad. Labor retains commanding leads on education (53-36), the environment (51-35) and industrial relations (58-34).
UPDATE 3: Essential Research has Labor up slightly from 54-46 to 55-45, although the primary votes suggest rounding has a fair bit to do with the improvement: both parties are down one on the primary vote, Labor to 41 per cent and Coalition to 38 per cent, with the Greens up two to 13 per cent. The supplementary questions are interesting: Julia Gillard’s mining tax changes have gone down well, supported by 50 per cent and opposed by 28 per cent, with 58 per cent rating Gillard’s handling of the issue “good” against 25 per cent “poor”. However, 41 per cent believed mining companies wielded “too much influence” in the process. The asylum seeker announcement slightly improved Labor’s position on the issue, which 56 per cent continue to think “too soft” (down 11 points) against 21 per cent for “taking the right approach” (up three), and the Coalition lead as best-party-to-handle has narrowed from 34-23 to 31-24. In spite of everything Gillard’s handling of the issue has 42 per cent approval and 33 per cent disapproval. Questions on the likelihood of WorkChoices being reintroduced under a Coalition government are little changed since the question was asked six weeks ago, with most believing they would and few happy about the prospect.
Uh, thanks for the feedback on the TV shows. I am afraid that the provisional ratings are confirmed and that today stays as a win for Abbott. Silly really, because he has done absolutely nothing to earn it… and therein lies his secret at the moment.
Cumulative score for day 5: Abbott 6 v Gillard 4.
Boerwar@1
FYI This was the lead story on Their ABC:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FO2wTi_Gw4E
Gusface from previous thread:
[wiliam
without revealing confidences would it be fair to say more than one “commentator” has posted here?]
Not that I’m aware of.
They can keep attacking Abbott, but she ain’t go’in to win back the swing voters
Highest ever result for the greens, apparently.
Manunda, OK I’ll bite. You have absolutely no evidence for the rubbish you keep on sprouting here. Gillard is a much better performer than Abbott, and the economy is doing well. She has a better change of winning over the swingers than Abbott
Boerwar, with your analytic and prophetic powers, are you sure you’re not actually an octopus?
[Cumulative score for day 5: Abbott 6 v Gillard 4]
We get it: as per your arbitrary scoring system, Gillard is losing.
This poll is fine for me. An unmoved 2PP and only a slight bleed to the Greens (emphasis on “slight”)
This definitely fits in with my theory that the numbers are firming and looking more like an election result, than just an opinion poll.
It also seems to back up my theory that there isn’t a honeymoon for Gillard or, more appropriately, her ascension has cancelled out Abbott’s honeymoon.
Nielsen will be an interesting read. It probably will be the last pre-campaign poll.
Yes, in QLD..watch Newspoll go to 15% for The Greens…and stay there.
From Sloppy Joe – who’s on tour in Truthy Country 🙂
Watch the greens get no more than 10% in the election like always and then begin their inevitable democrats style death spiral.
As a bleeding heart I’m more than happy for bleeding to continue,..look I’m not spouting I’m using my network of Green around the place to gauge opinion particularly in rural SA country NSW and Northern Viv…I’m not arguing anything other than a slight increase in the Polls, obviously Gillard is going to win,..we’re not going to get into the hign teens (although I’ve got a couple of side vote on that) and I still think Melbourne’s a big ask, but…
ohh ,…12% at least Nico don’t be so conservative
man under
chutzpah par excellence
🙂
Thanks Frank
I would count that segment as a win for Gillard.
Other re: the daily scores
I thought it would be interesting to try and do a daily win, draw, lose score for Gillard and Abbott based on how they are presented in the daily media. I am not claiming any links between this and the polls or the betting markets.
*goes to bed to get ahead for tomorrow’s early morning event*
So the ALP have killed a 1st Term PM for a 3-4point rise in primary vote and virtually no change in the combined Tory vote.
Excuse me for a moment.
LoL!
B
a siesta?
cos espana will being having a fiesta in about 9 hrs
Be great to see if the gender break down is the same as Morgan.
A question:
Does Galaxy ask for preferences, or does it estimate?
confession time
i got up at 2 am watched a replay and was bout to post how good the dutch were
then i realised it was a replay of the semi, tho the deutxch dispatched the ur a guys with clinical effeiciency,at the end at least
🙁
Kom op Nederland!
Glen, I am one of the Labor voters who thought Rudd could beat Abbott. Nevertheless, a 4% increase in primary is very significant and locks in higher support going into a campaign. Rudd going into a campaign with a hostile media was a scary prospect with a large no of parked voters
glen
a school of grey nurses is hanging on paella tonite
Gough Whitlam turned 94 today. He’s now paralysed from the waist down and wheelchair bound but still goes to his office three days a week.
[So the ALP have killed a 1st Term PM for a 3-4point rise in primary vote and virtually no change in the combined Tory vote.
Excuse me for a moment.
LoL!]
Glen,
The toxic media must take at least half the blame. They did the preliminary hatchet job on Kevin Rudd, attacking him to such an overwhelming extent that he was crippled, unable to get a message out, and his name being made poison in the electorate. Leaving a pragmatic ALP little choice but to finish the poor bugger off.
True Andrew I see your point.
I still thought Rudd would have dispatched with Tone (with minor losses).
I am predicting a 2-1 victory for the Oranje
But I’ll tape it. Too early for this night owl!
Nico, I do have to agree with you on the death spiral thing, I don’t know about other parties but when The Greens have debates at State conferences it is a scary thing to behold and if Rhiannon gets in, the internal stuff in the Senate may lead to bloodshed.
(see predictions on Insiders, she’s not joking)
michelle
and he still answers correspondence in freehand
at least he did about 3 mths ago when my eldest wrote to him
[Gough Whitlam turned 94 today. He’s now paralysed from the waist down and wheelchair bound but still goes to his office three days a week.]
It’s good to see him still alive, but it’s also sad to see him on his last legs. (pun not intended.)
Longest lived PM. He’s also outlived most other heads of government (including every US President.) Hopefully he’s got a couple of years left.
[ Joe Hockey JoeHockey
So the 2010 election begins! This wk I am in Canberra,Gladstone,Rocky, Mackay,Townsville & Cairns. I really enjoy the campaign trail. 1 minute ago via web]
So many cities….so many pie shops 🙂
MG, I actually voted for Kerry Nettle in the senate in 2007. For the greens to have found a worse candidate is quite something.
[So many cities….so many pie shops]
Grow up will you!
That fat jokes are getting really lame.
redwombat@31
Campaigning in a Food Court near you 🙂
Red
watch out
Glen will go you for the pies refeerence
😉
Ooops
glen got in first
🙁
He isn’t fat just “thick skinned”
I dont get the need for jibes about Hockey’s weight. PLenty of other things to criticise him for
[I dont get the need for jibes about Hockey’s weight. PLenty of other things to criticise him for]
If you can’t manage your own weight, how can you be expected to manage the economy.
Look you guys are a joke.
Anybody who pays someone out based on their weight not their ideas is shameful.
Anybody who uses fat jokes or sloppy joe comments are a disgrace and bad karma is your reward!
I’m surprised that they are still allowed to be made as it detracts from the informative nature of this politics blog.
Glen – That four point rise might look small but that is acvtually quite a big movement, the LibNats are bascially going nowhere
[Anybody who pays someone out based on their weight not their ideas is shameful.]
Glen, I agree. Looking forward to hear some ideas from Joe.
[I dont get the need for jibes about Hockey’s weight. PLenty of other things to criticise him for]
It’s politics; cheap shots aplenty!
All sides are guilty. It’s just a little jest from the true believers.
It actually hardens the respective politicians up for legitimate criticism.
So the Greens vote has increased from 11% on the last Galaxy to 14% on this Galaxy. Big whoop! Who cares! There is no way the 3% that shifted are going to go to Abbott!
I hope Labor did not change leaders on the basis of a switch from ALP votes to Green votes? All votes that move from Labor to Greens will return to Labor on preferences.
Like I have always said, the Greens are real bad news!
Oh, and two thirds are happy with Julia moving to the right on Boatpeople. Suck eggs Greens!
He supported and tried to sell “Workchoices”…………..Oh i forget it was a humane act to stop us getting obese.
Glen
LOL
I think the lad doth protest too much
Now did I or did I not say the Green vote would shoot up again? I did. Yet again I am proven correct.
*pleasent feeling of smarminess* 🙂
Red
Sloppy is what we can aspire to be, if only worstchoices was weighted
😉
Centre, your comments are noted,
am inserting the last dozen and saving the rest for Julia
[It’s just a little jest from the true believers.]
Rubbish these comments disgrace this blog and yourselves.
It adds nothing to the debate. It is cheap schoolyard bullying which is rubbish!
*I’m off!*