Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

What everyone expects to be the last Morgan face-to-face poll before tomorrow’s election announcement finds Labor’s two-party lead slipping from 56.5-43.5 to 53.5-46.5, if using the preference figure derived from the 2007 election results. However, Labor is evidently doing better now with respondent-allocated preferences, which Morgan is now using as the basis for its headline calculation, as their lead on that measure has only slipped from 55-45 to 54.5-45.5. The primary vote figures give Labor cause for concern: their primary vote is down five to 40.5 per cent, with the Coalition up three to 41 per cent and the Greens up 1.5 per cent to 12 per cent. This is very similar to the last poll under Kevin Rudd, except that Labor and the Greens are each 0.5 per cent lower with “others” 1 per cent higher.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

905 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  3. [Abbott was trying to say to Australians, don’t vote for Gillard just because she is a woman.]

    ah he has just lost another 100 th woman

  12. We just have till the 21st of August to wait to take back our country. Till we can speak without fear of being shouted down for being honest.Til our children can have a chance for a job. Til our miners and loggers, honest union men both can again hold there head high while the new green puritans slink back to the coffee shops and subsidised universities. We have just to wait to the 21st til Australia can again be FREE.

  18. [802 The Finnigans
    Posted Saturday, July 17, 2010 at 11:51 am | Permalink
    god help us if he was pm i would never ever watch the news again

    My say, you are welcome to join me and amigo Vera, we will swim down to the deep blue and stay there]

    please i just player the Catherine Jenkins video we need more of them
    Where do you find that amazing music from just beautiful

    o labor people are so lucky we care about each other and the world that is the difference between them and us.
    god bless finns.

  19. [And doing well in ripping Abbott]

    Yes, going after his negativity and conservatism, rather than attack the man himself. Nice.

    Considering she is setting herself up as the forward thinking positive choice, could the choice of the white suit be a subtle allusion to her being the “white hat” of this election?

    Media hyenas opining at the PM, rather than asking her questions (eg “why should we believe you, when you have stuffed up so many things?” WTF was that?)

  20. [“why should we believe you, when you have stuffed up so many things?” WTF was that?]

    It’s a fair enough question really.

  23. BK… 😉
    it is a shocker aint it. I dont like the obsequise approach of the White House press corp, but surely there is a happy medium…

  24. Gillard was poised, firm, and charming. It’ll be interesting to see the contrast with Abbott’s presser in forty minutes time.

  31. [Carr Saturday 21 August will be the 67th anniversary of the 1943 federal election, Labor’s greatest ever victory, under John Curtin. Just a thought…
    June 4 at 5:01pm · Comment ·LikeUnlike · View Feedback (6)Hide Feedback ]

    can we have alittle history of the lead up to that date and what where the polls like then

  33. These press clowns are all trying to get the “gotchas”. They should be seeking to get and analyse additional information for the Australian public. Instead they are just playing a game amongst themselves.

  34. Peter Hartcher must have been reading my posts last night:

    The two leaders have been conditioned by their parties to work within the new timidity that is so limiting Australian politics.

    …

    And Gillard cut down Kevin Rudd because of Labor fears that the government’s proposed mining tax was putting it in political jeopardy. She has since compromised on the tax and retreated even further than Rudd on any emissions trading scheme.

    The former prime minister Paul Keating liked to fire the ambition of his colleagues by asking them: “What’s the worst thing that can happen to you in this business? You might lose your job. So why be a mouse?”

    Yet for the colonies of mice overrunning the government and opposition benches, this is no reassurance. It is their greatest fear.

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/untested-leaders-take-timid-steps-to-scare-their-way-into-office-20100716-10e3k.html?autostart=1

  36. [please i just player the Catherine Jenkins video we need more of them
    Where do you find that amazing music from just beautiful]

    My Say, my version is coming up soon. just need to learn few more correct phrasings. btw where is the Amigo? :kiss:

  37. There’s usually a campaign rule, “Never use your opponent’s name.” Gillard is deliberately breaking it by repeatedly naming Abbott. That tells us what Labor’s polling shows – that Abbott is poison with the voters. Now it’s too late for the Libs to dump him.

  38. I still can’t get over the fact that the MSM , with the exception of the Courier Mail, have totally ignored the “If it is a legal matter I will fix it” comment by Abbott in relation to Qld federal MP Johnson.

  39. I think this venue needs a bit of a makeover. The riff-raff media are all a bit too close to the lecturn. Needs a more structured, dignified framework and boundary

    Elizabeth I would never have stood for this 😀

  40. The Labor supporters should expect such criticism of an UNELECTED Prime Minister.

    What did you expect, a brass band and welcome parade?

    I bet Gerald Ford got the same grilling when he took over from Nixon and I bet the lefties weren’t holding back on that one.

  42. [I wonder what superficial criticisms Julia is going to get for her performance today?]

    Thomas will be around shortly to let us know.

  43. I wish blessings for all Andrew, Pauline, Piers etc anyone you can name.
    Indeed come the evening of the 21st all of us will be blessed

  44. [questions as usual to start with

    I must be getting old; they seem so rude]

    there is no respect for people who have come this far and hold office any more.

    when students are allowed at school to call their teachers mate or christian name

    this is where it starts sad but true, repect has really dissapeared.

  49. Gillard refuses to answer whether she’d stay on as Opposition Leader if Labor lose the election. What a waste of a question.

  50. [That tells us what Labor’s polling shows – that Abbott is poison with the voters. ]

    Herr Doktor, my OH says Abbott looks like a little monkey

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