Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

Nothing to link to yet, but the Channel Nine news has told of Galaxy polling to appear in News Limited’s Sunday tabloids showing Labor with a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, with Julia Gillard leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 55-32. On the former count Galaxy has shown impressive consistency: it’s the same result as the poll conducted on the first two evenings of Gillard’s prime ministership (which came with breakdowns for each of the two evenings, both of which had it at 52-48), as well as its poll of last week. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full results here. Stability too on the primary vote: Labor and the Coalition steady on 39 per cent and 42 per cent respectively, the Greens down one to 13 per cent and others up one to 6 per cent. A very healthy 67 per cent support an early election (which Patricia Karvelas of The Australian absurdly described as “exceptionally early” – as Possum points out, this was in fact the longest serving first term government since World War II). Labor is rated as less underserving to win than the Coalition, 40 per cent to 30 per cent, but 57 per cent think Labor’s treatment of Kevin Rudd will harm its chances against 37 per cent who disagree.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,773 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 36
1 2 … 36

  3. Did Abbott seriously say today that if he wins government he will NEVER support a price on carbon?

    If so, then that should disqualify him from parliament, let alone being PM.

  8. [Police are investigating an attack on a South Australian Liberal candidate and a volunteer at the start of campaigning today.

    Jassmine Wood was handing out flyers outside a supermarket in the seat of Hindmarsh when she was approached by a man who disagreed with the Liberal Party’s border protection policies.

    Ms Wood says the situation soon became violent.

    “My poor volunteer, who was on his first day of the campaign trail, got punched in the face many times,” she said.

    “I got hit in the side of the head. My campaign volunteer was actually down on the ground with somebody sitting on his chest really hitting him in the face.

    “The man’s friend joined in, hitting my volunteer.”]

    Shocking – jail the sods. Elections are about the battle of ideas not fists. 🙁

  9. [Shocking – jail the sods. Elections are about the battle of ideas not fists.]

    Agree.

    Same as if it were attacks on Labor or others it cannot be tolerated.

    We must not accept Storm Trooper tactics by members of the public.

  10. Oh well, I suppose we’ll find out all the details on this poll tomorrow. Could it be a marginal seats poll perhaps?

    I haven’t seen the commercial news, but did Abbott’s Workchoices in 3 years time get a run in the nightly news?

  14. Glen@13

    It did on 9 and on SBS.

    Not many pointed out Tone saying he would only tweak things through the independent umpire.

    Tone is stumbling on WC on CH as per the above Youtube link.

  15. Glen, Bilson is good and I know his ex staffers well, but he is not PM material. No the only thing you got (I know that’s the wrong pronoun for you) is malcolm- period

  17. I know I know Centaur009.

    [The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.]

    Sir Winston Churchill

  19. Oh well, I suppose we’ll find out all the details on this poll tomorrow. Could it be a marginal seats poll perhaps?

    Nah I’d bet a marginal seat poll would be 50-50.

    52-48 sounds about where things are at.

  22. [Does anyone know the state of the polls in 2004 when Howard called the election?]
    I think he was ‘behind’ like 51/49, but of course that’s a statistical tie.

  23. Has anyone got a transcript of the interview Oakes did with ABC radio on Friday. In it Oakes said there had not been a deal between Rudd and Gillard, that Julia had done the right thing in refusing Rudd’s offer to delay things, as Kevin’s position untenable, and he practically admitted he had the leak from one of Harris, Albanese or Jordan not from Rudd. He was very explicit that it was wrong to say that only 3 people knew about Kevin’s proposal to Julia to stand down if polls did not improve.

  26. When things get tough
    We call for Brough
    When we’ve had enough
    We pyne for Brough
    We the voters don’t give a stuff
    We yearn for Brough
    When things are shithouse
    We regret that nothing rhymes with Billson

  30. [When things get tough
    We call for Brough
    When we’ve had enough
    We pyne for Brough
    We the voters don’t give a stuff
    We yearn for Brough
    When things are shithouse
    We regret that nothing rhymes with Billson]

    I think stick to your day job Adam, you’re much better at it 😀

  31. Time for the Blue-ringed Octopus to give today’s score of how the candidates were presented in the media plus some cephalapodian intuition.

    It is very difficult to unscramble today’s events, especially for a cephalapod. The set pieces by Gillard and by Abbott played largely to the convinced and succeeded at that level. Gillard’s poise, fluency, good humour and calm clearly outpointed Abbott when answering questions. The commentariat largely appeared to think that they both came out of it more or less equally badly because of same old, same old. The commentariat appear to expect government by 24/7 fifteen sound bites. So the narratives largely balanced each other out.

    Apart from The Australian, which is only to be expected, Channel nine was the only outlet that went seriously feral. Oakes seems to be channelling that other over-the-hill hasbeen, Latham.

    The mass of agendas – competence, instability, work choices, asylum seekers, the economy, et cetera, et cetera, largely balanced each other out with Work Choices and Gillard’s haste possibly leading the pack. Of the latter two, Work Choices bodes no good for Abbott.

    Campaign bloopers:
    Labor: The lads who bashed the Liberal Campaign worker over asylum seekers deserve serious jail time. Naturally this got prime time coverage. Expect more tomorrow.

    Liberal: Abetz promising to tweak Work Choices at the same time as Abbott was announcing that not only was it dead, but cremated, and susceptible to resurrection in three years’ time. Abbott spent some time slipsliding in the rain on the difference between Work Choices the Act and Work Choices the Regulations. He also contradicted himself about (a) supporting Work Choices the Act, and (b) telling the journos some of the bad results of Work Choices. This mess went largely unreported but Bluey believes that there is enough material going forward to do some serious damage to Abbott. Just not yet.

    13 ‘ums’ and 57 ‘uhs’ competed with 36 ‘going forwards’. Squids might enjoy it, but cephalapods are not looking forward to hearing around 2310 ‘ums’ and ‘ahs’ and 1188 ‘Going Forwards’ over the course of the campaign. The ten year olds that run the infotainment programs that pass for news on the commericials think it funny to do cut and pastes of ‘going forwards’. It saves them from the tedium of serious policy research.

    Voc pops. About equal.

    Poll results. 52/48 keeps the pressure on the protest vote to think seriously about putting Abbott in. a small win for Labor.

    All in all, Bluey scores today a draw, one point each. Gillard 1; Abbott 1.

  37. [Campaign bloopers:
    Labor: The lads who bashed the Liberal Campaign worker over asylum seekers deserve serious jail time. Naturally this got prime time coverage. Expect more tomorrow.]

    They might be “Greens” supporters!

  40. Hmm, not a good omen for Julia:

    abcgrandstand

    AFL: 1/4 time.. Port lead Western Bulldogs 31-15. 1 minute ago via Facebook

  42. [Customised ALP Ad for WA just screened on 7.]
    I hope it encouraged people to vote Labor to stop Colin Barnett siphoning W.A. GST dollars away from health and towards regional rorts.

  44. [Live Cross to Tony Abbott – Mentions GBNT.]

    Some of the media commentators are already chastising Julia for using the term “Moving Forward”. She’s only been using this for a few days and already the “pundits” are sledging her over it.

    Yet abbott has been using the ridiculous “GBNT” slogan against first emissions trading, now the super-profits tax, since December last year – and scarcely a word of criticism from the learned media flakes.

    Double standards as always.

  47. I keep hearing that the Coalition have to win 17 seats to win the election. I thought that they had only to win an additional 8 or 9.

    Am I wrong or are most of the commentators in the media wrong?

  48. Cuppa
    Quite right. This is what makes scoring the campaign through the prism of the media such a tedious task for Blue-ringed Octopodes.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 1 of 36
1 2 … 36