Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

Nothing to link to yet, but the Channel Nine news has told of Galaxy polling to appear in News Limited’s Sunday tabloids showing Labor with a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, with Julia Gillard leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 55-32. On the former count Galaxy has shown impressive consistency: it’s the same result as the poll conducted on the first two evenings of Gillard’s prime ministership (which came with breakdowns for each of the two evenings, both of which had it at 52-48), as well as its poll of last week. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full results here. Stability too on the primary vote: Labor and the Coalition steady on 39 per cent and 42 per cent respectively, the Greens down one to 13 per cent and others up one to 6 per cent. A very healthy 67 per cent support an early election (which Patricia Karvelas of The Australian absurdly described as “exceptionally early” – as Possum points out, this was in fact the longest serving first term government since World War II). Labor is rated as less underserving to win than the Coalition, 40 per cent to 30 per cent, but 57 per cent think Labor’s treatment of Kevin Rudd will harm its chances against 37 per cent who disagree.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,773 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. [Overhead Bob Ellis today saying that JG PM had made the wrong choices and had misunderstood the feeling about dumping Rudd. I wanted to hit him.]

    Boundary Man – you should have. I’ve been reading his book about the 07 election and he hasn’t really had much good to say about Kev. In fact he virtually says he found him lifeless and boring. Strange that now he wants to defend him.

    Ellis is an old blokey stooge so probably can’t handle a powerful woman.

  2. [Psephos – why do you think this may be coming from SA and Vic and not Qld and NSW?]

    Gillard gets a home-town-hero bounce in both cities.
    The state governments aren’t as big a drag as they are in NSW and Qld.
    People are less phobic about boaties.
    There is more industry and therefore more anti-WorkChoices sentiment.

  3. Rubbish Adam.

    He was on 49.8% Primary Vote almost didnt need to go to preferences.

    His real margin is somewhere between 8 and 10% factoring in the Ruddslide in 07.

    [product]

    You mean salesman?

    If Willy Wonka was leading the Libs they’d at least have someone who was successful in business leading the party.

  4. [Psephos – why do you think this may be coming from SA and Vic and not Qld and NSW?]
    Gillard is a Victorian MP who grew up in Adelaide. If she is going to get a home town bump, it would be in those two states.

    I think the Liberals are in trouble in Boothby because that really shoulv’e been a Labor gain in 2007.

  6. [His real margin is somewhere between 8 and 10% factoring in the Ruddslide in 07.]

    Glen that is a psephologically absurd statement. On that logic the Liberals are still in power. His margin is 4%. Plenty of people have lost seats on 4%.

  8. [and now for something completely different.

    i have not stopped crying for Norman since i heard his sad divorce from Chrissy.]

    Finns, you renaissance mammal you!

  11. The best thing Kevin Rudd can do for the party is to get up tomorrow and start campaigning and when he’s asked by a journalist “What do you think of the latest poll?” he should smile and say “I think it’s brilliant.”

  12. I’d be surprised to not see a 55/45 at this point. The polls typically have a 3% error (95% confidence), so if the true figure is somewhere between 52 and 53, you’d expect to see 55 turning up some of the time.

    Likewise a poll of 50 is within the margin of error too.

    What would be fun is to see 56 showing up once or twice in the next few weeks. That would be evidence that the true figure is 53+, an improvement on the last election.

  15. Wowsers! Just read about the Newspoll! I don’t care if it’s a rogue, it still has killed the “Gillard is in deep feces” message of the early evening!

    Of course, there are still another 34 days to go, so no celebrating (it’s just one poll) and I would be hypocritical if I were to be dancing over the poll, when I mocked Truthy for doing so just hours before. However, it’s just good to see that the polls (the real, not rushed for channel 9 ones) are all keeping Labor around that 53-47 mark! I’m feeling very optimistic tonight. Unless the Libs can retool their campaign and Abbott sharpen up, those swing voters are all going to be marching our way.

    As I said, there are still 34 days to go and this is just one poll. But if we see trends like this, combined with the same rubbish from the Libs, it’s going to be a sweet victory!

    Pyne and Southcott for the Centrelink queue!

  16. [His personal support is probably worth that much.]

    Exactly what everyone said about Howard, Barressi and a host of others. In an urban seat, personal support is worth 2% tops.

  17. [What would be fun is to see 56 showing up once or twice in the next few weeks. That would be evidence that the true figure is 53+, an improvement on the last election.]
    I don’t want a 56 cos then people will rock up on election day and vote Liberal as a protest thinking Labor is going to win in a landslide.

    I’d be perfectly happy with 52s and 53s with the primary vote in the low 40s, then Labor gets a 45% primary vote and 54% 2pp on polling day. 😀

  19. [Unless the Libs can retool their campaign and Abbott sharpen up]

    Abbott is the biggest tool the Liberals have.

  20. [I’m feeling very optimistic tonight. Unless the Libs can retool their campaign and Abbott sharpen up, those swing voters are all going to be marching our way.]
    The Libs campaign is all negative – no NBN, no computers in schools, no trades training centres, no national health & hospital network.

    And then they put up a TV advert going on about debt, debt, debt which means they can’t spend anything else they have just contradicted their primary message!

  21. [Psephos – are there enough seats to win in SA and Vic to counteract any losses in Qld and NSW?]

    A 5% swing in Vic would give Labor McEwen, La Trobe, Dunkley and McMillan. The latter is unlikely against Broadbent. On the other hand Aston is on 5.1% with no sitting member. A 3% swing in SA would give Labor Sturt and Boothby. Grey is on 4.4% which is unlikely.

  22. [I don’t want a 56 cos then people will rock up on election day and vote Liberal as a protest thinking Labor is going to win in a landslide.]

    Agree with that, SO. I know we are not supposed to say ‘contrived’ but I hope this poll hasn’t been tweaked so that the next one, if it comes in much lower, will set off the ‘loser’ tag again to Labor.

    Swannie looked particularly happy today in Brissie and said he’d been in Gladstone the day before. I wonder if he is feeling better about the Qld seats.

  25. Thanks for that Psephos. Have a good break BK and I’m off to bed. Just for Dennis I’ll say “I’m off to bed laughing”!

  26. Yeah I don’t think Grey would flip.

    We may also put a little pressure on Briggs in Mayo. While the seat won’t flip, they may have to pour resources into defending the sucker.

  27. [Agree with that, SO. I know we are not supposed to say ‘contrived’ but I hope this poll hasn’t been tweaked so that the next one, if it comes in much lower, will set off the ‘loser’ tag again to Labor.]
    Well after a 55 in Newspoll, more than likely the next one will be a 53 or a 54, cos 55% is usually an outlier, especially at the start of an election campaign.

    So that will at least create some “election race tightening up” type stories.

    And remember, the next Newspoll won’t ask “if an election was held this weekend” it will ask “at the election to be held on August 21st”.

    And I may be wrong, but I believe Newspoll will start asking for allocation of preferences instead of using the 2007 figures.

  29. [We may also put a little pressure on Briggs in Mayo. While the seat won’t flip, they may have to pour resources into defending the sucker.]
    And expect a huge Green vote – 15 – 20%.

  31. Gladstone: Hinkler is on 1.5% and may be a chance. We had a rotten candidate there last time. I know nothing about Belinda McNeven but she could hardly be worse. Paul Neville is respected locally, but he is 70 and country people do “turn” on elderly members sometimes.

  32. [So that will at least create some “election race tightening up” type stories.]

    Which is good, because it will lend credibility to Gillard et al when they say “The election will be close, we can’t take victory for granted” in the event that we’re winning

  33. Well last 3 hours seen Hawke movie of 2 hrs , then interview huh Rimington with Hawke , then later with Blanche & Hawkie

    Both worth seeing guys and gals

  34. RE the Two Polls:

    Phillip Hudson PhillipMHudson

    Galaxy 800 voters all interviewed after poll was called. Newspoll 1140 voters, 60 per cent interviewed after election was called. less than 20 seconds ago via web

  36. [We may also put a little pressure on Briggs in Mayo.]

    What Mayo needs is a strong independent. If a retired admiral or ambassador had run against Lord Downer last time they could have beaten him. I doubt Labor or a Green can ever win it.

  38. http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/special-reports/julia-gillards-election-attack-plan/story-fn5ko0pw-1225893668970

    [JULIA Gillard has armed herself with at least three attack ads against Tony Abbott, according to secret Labor Party research….

    Secret Labor focus group research, leaked to the Herald Sun, reveals Ms Gillard has recorded TV advertisements in which she blasts “my opponent” over health, education, broadband and WorkChoices.

    As the flipside of Labor’s campaign slogan, “Let’s move Australia forward”, the ads, recorded in the Prime Minister’s Parliament House office before the election was called, warn: “Don’t let Tony Abbott take us backwards.”

    Other versions of the advertisements tested by Labor include the tagline “That’s a backwards move.”]

  39. @1717, yes but don’t underestimate the power of social pressure and the way the herd mentality swings to the perceived winner in a lot of social networks.

  40. ShowsOn@1735

    Is William on a plane heading to or away from Perth?

    I’m assuming Away – might be involved in some election type stuff nationally and they want him live in the studio ?

  41. Whats this bit here about Newspoll 55/45 ?
    is this official or someones having a gander at us here ?

    I just dont beleive 55/45 at all
    but pollsters always got thart ‘excuse’ of 3% moe , lucky fellas
    so it can be as low as 52/48 !

  42. What on earth is Abbott going to announce?
    [He (Abbott) will make his first campaign visit to Melbourne today, to speak at an Australia-Israel Chamber of Commerce lunch sponsored by a stem-cell company called Mesoblast. Guests will pay up to $5500 for a table.

    Mr Abbott, a long-time critic of stem-cell research, warned when he was health minister it could lead to human cloning and human-animal hybrids.]
    On day 3 of election campaign Abbott is going to announce his opposition to stem cell research at a fundraiser funded by a stem cell research company? 😀

  44. [Secret Labor focus group research, leaked to the Herald Sun, reveals Ms Gillard has recorded TV advertisements in which she blasts “my opponent” over health, education, broadband and WorkChoices.]

    Wow what an extraordinary scoop! Who would have believed that Labor was MAKING TV ADS!! Gosh, is there nothing these socialists won’t stoop to?

  45. [On day 3 of election campaign Abbott is going to announce his opposition to stem cell research at a fundraiser funded by a stem cell research company?]

    It’s so great that he can’t hide any more.

    The real Tony Abbott, please stand up!

  46. [I’m assuming Away – might be involved in some election type stuff nationally and they want him live in the studio ?]
    He could be Antony Green’s apprentice. CSIRO research into figuring out how to let Antony Green live forever is progressing at a slow pace. We may need a backup.

  47. Hard to believe the ads during Hawkie where Abbott looks like the Terminator and Julia Gillard looked like a reasonable and positive human being.

  48. Could be interesting if tomorrow’s Essential comes in at 5545 or 56/44 to Labor.

    They will surely be counting the numbers amongst themselves in the Liberal camp.

    No wonder Tone looked a bit nervous today. Probably got a sore neck from looking over his shoulder all the time watching for Malcolm’s stiletto! 😉

  49. The preferred PM number is the one that really stands out for me – a liberal voting mate is thinking of redoing a bet we had in 2004 where he absolutely cleaned up @ $10 per seat, this could be my chance to get my money back 🙂

    Speaking of betting – people should be very careful not to read too much into the individual seat markets on Betfair – there is very little to no liquidity and when you quote 2 odds on favourites it’s a market no one should be betting into. Mind you, that’s one of the beauties of Betfair – if the odds aren’t right, ask for the price you want and see if you get matched e.g. Labor should be at least $2.20 (go the Greens!!!) definitely don’t take the odds on.

    Note – the overall winner pool has over $300k matched and is a much better market

    Vote 1 Australian Sex Party 🙂

    p.s. I’m looking forward to William returning, hopefully he will pull Shows On into line, his abuse of Truthy is both boring and over the top

  50. Of course, they will probably try and spin this as a Latham-like start, and predict a “narrowing” and voter return to the Libs.

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