Peter van Onselen offers the following on internal polling in The Australian:
The Australian understands that Labor’s track polling shows its support is lifting in all states except Queensland, where the combinations of the toppling of Kevin Rudd (a local boy) and the deep unpopularity of the state government and Premier Anna Bligh are stifling support. The numbers suggest Labor could lose a host of seats in the Sunshine State. Attempts to arrest the decline include efforts by candidates to localise campaigns, along with sending Julia Gillard to Queensland for the early part of the campaign to break down the growing angst against her for tearing down an elected prime minister. Labor sources point out the irony is that during Rudd’s leadership, Queensland had been a problematic state where dissatisfaction with the job he was doing was high.
Perhaps surprisingly, the dip in support for Labor in Western Australia has been contained and a small upsurge has occurred. The same results have been seen in NSW on the strength of Labor’s changed border protection policy under Ms Gillard. The Coalition is facing financial constraints and is not doing anywhere near the amount of expensive track polling it did at the last election, or as much as Labor is doing now, according to one senior Liberal source. But the quantitative research the Coalition has done is said to have buoyed Tony Abbott and Brian Loughnane about their chances of a competitive result or even an upset victory. The Coalition is apparently tracking better in key marginal seats than published polls with wider samples such as Newspoll might suggest.
Around the grounds:
• Labor and the Greens have confirmed a preference deal in which the latter will receive Senate preferences across the country, and the former will get lower house preferences in 44 of 50 marginal seats. The Sydney Morning Herald reports local Greens in six seats have refused to abide by the deal: Lindsay and Gilmore in NSW, Herbert, Blair and Dawson in Queensland, and Sturt in South Australia.
• While Tony Abbott was having a rough ride in Melbourne, Julia Gillard spent the first weekday of the campaign targeting the Townsville seat of Herbert, where Liberal member Peter Lindsay is retiring and redistribution has nudged the seat from super-marginal Liberal to super-marginal Labor. Gillard spent the visit spruiking the Better Regional Cities policy which was unveiled the on Sunday, which will commit $200 million to affordable housing in regional cities.
• The Australian’s Samantha Maiden and Dennis Shanahan have both written today of a slick and efficient early campaign performance from Labor’s media unit that is leaving the opposition in its wake. According to Maiden, “media organisations are being carpet-bombed by an ALP campaign unit on steroids that is racing out media alerts, audio files of Coalition gaffes and interview transcripts via the social networking site Twitter”. The Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberal campaign headquarters will not be operational until today.
• The ABC reports police have ruled out a firearm being responsible for damage to the home and campaign office of Brent Thomas, Labor’s candidate for Hughes, with a slingshot deemed more likely.
Tone is going to announce an education costs “policy” soon.
“Glen Stevens quoted in The Age today. “Australia virtually no net public debt” which is in contrast to the rest of the developed world, and that debt is 5-6% of GDP lowest in the world. This should form part of a Labor ad.”
Agree the ALP should run an ad dispelling the spurious claims of the Libs on Debt and Deficit. they are completely unfounded and do not stack up to the facts. that generally applies to all the Lib policies however.
Gillard dodges questions
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/gillard-dodges-migrant-intake-question/story-fn59niix-1225894896416
[JULIA Gillard has refused to say whether she plans to cut back the migrant intake in line with her argument for a reassessment of population policy.
And the Prime Minister has also stoutly defended her industrial relations regime, insisting her Fair Work Act does not need to be tweaked despite ongoing complaints that its provisions prevent teenagers from taking after-school jobs.
On Tuesday Ms Gillard said in a speech that the nation needed to ask itself whether it was time to stop packing more people into Sydney’s western suburbs when the region’s infrastructure and services were struggling to meet the demands of the existing population.
In doing so she became the first prime minister in decades to question the notion that a growing population will drive economic growth and prosperity.
Asked on Sydney radio station 2UE today whether this meant she wanted to pare back the nation’s immigration intake, Ms Gillard, a Welsh migrant, refused to be drawn.]
Miss Gillard, just like Mr Rudd are for open door immigration and a BLoody BIG Australia.
If Miss Gillard is against a Bloody Big Australia, she needs to commit to cutting back immigration immediately.
blue_green: LOL, yes I’m forgetting the bar isn’t set very high to start with.
I see Abbott about to have a press conference at a school. Perhaps something might be forthcoming from that.
my say@1199
Gee, I was only kidding mysay. Is the election tension suppressing the humour gene in the partisans?
Confessions:
Its a funny election, one of the first in over a decade with out lots of cash to throw around
Also both parties seem very risk averse and afraid of lanching anything new or innovative.
[because of the different historical transfer of religion to the US compared to here. We have a legacy of irreverence that is lacking among a lot of Americans]
some say its because of our convict background and that the English ( sorry to up set any one) Red coats where so despised etc we still have it in our make up.
funny story ( sorry to offend the English) but some years ago we where at Port Arthur going through the jail and all the nasty things that happened where being described
and a very very well spoken British tourist spoke up and and sad” my goodness i am glad that you australians have changed your way” there was dead silence and snigger’s from some, true story.
around
[Also both parties seem very risk averse and afraid of lanching anything new or innovative.]
One of Julia first statement was that this was going to be how it is, i suppose because of the GFC and bring things back to square one eventually you can imagine if she did
the msm and abbott screaming about debt i think its best to leave well alone
Both parties are having trouble with disendorsed members big-noting themselves. Belinda Neal still won’t say whether she’s running as an independent, but it looks like she is. Michael Johnson already is running:
[RT @MikeJohnsonMP: Why are Libs trying to distance themselves from Tony Abbott when I am proud to back him!! He must be PM!!
36 minutes ago via Echofon
Reply Retweet ]
Either will be lucky to get 10% IMHO.
[t’ll get thumped by firstly MASTERCHEF and then the comedy lineup on the ABC.]
I thought that Masterchef was on Sunday nights, Evan. We don’t get FTA so never see it but it’s very popular in the local village and conversations are dominated by it.
JV
it was an interesting day in shock jock land. It is clear that they know their listeners are solely a Liberal supporters. A major feature of the day was them playing soundbites of 18yo’s enrolling to vote. They were all labor voters and were saying silly thing like “I am enrolling to vote because I dont want Tony ABbott to be PM in his speedos”.
But the overriding theme of the day was “Why is Tony Abbott not performing? and What can he do to fix things?”. Pretty much all the callers were suggesting he should stop fence sitting and go more aggressive. They all seemed really dissapointed in him.
There seemed no massive anger like there was during the ETS debate or pink batts issues. Tony has lost his cheer squad.
Both could spray preferences around in tight marginals though, Psephos.
[Either will be lucky to get 10% IMHO.]
More interesting is what their how-to-vote cards say.
Abbott to give an increase in education tax rebate.
blue_green@1210
It seems supporters of both the big two want some leadership instead of the travesty they are watching.
Just watched the new Labor ad with JG as child, etc. – I usually hate ads but I liked that one. Her smile is great and the shots are short, sharp and the message prominent.
I
Libs will make school fees tax deductable.
What will this do to those savings they ‘found’ yesterday?
[I thought that Masterchef was on Sunday nights]
It’s on every night except Saturdays, so it’s a pity for Abbott that Hey Hey It’s Saturday is not, in fact, on a Saturday.
Pyne is shouting. Why do Liberals always end up yelling in their press conferences?
JV1210
They seemed to want him to properly kill workchoices so he can concentrate better on debt. Very angry about borrowing from chinese and arabs.
I dont think he can activate his base to get people to vote FOR him, like he was able to get them to express discontent AGAINST the govt.
The policies that appeal to this sort of “sole-trader, tradie, single older man crowd” will not cut through with broader public.
Wheres Kevin?
Seems like he’s dropped off the face of the Earth, perhaps he’s still licking the knife wounds in his back.
Surprise, surprise. The media want to talk about Workchoices.
[Wheres Kevin?]
Campaigning in Griffith.
FC @ 700
[Sunday debate will be at 6.30pm for one hour. Moderated by David Speers. Panel – Chris Uhlmann, Laura Tingle and Malcolm Farr]
So poor, old Father Christmas Oakes doesn’t even get a guernsey as part of the Great Debate panel!
How the once mighty have fallen ….
Has anyone announced tax cuts for footy boots, netball bibs or cricket bats yet? What about an weekly orange rebate for the mums who cut them up for the kids at quarter time. Or even a laundry allowance for the mums who wash the jumpers?
Neal is apparently putting out stuff with Gillard’s face on it, so she could hardly preference the Libs – she’ll get zero votes if she does that. And Johnson his spruiking his loyalty to Abbott, so ditto for him.
Should it be Chris Uhlmann doing the debate. Will it be too difficult for him to be fair to Julia when his wife is running for Labor. Will he think he has to go in harder on her.
Laura Tingle will be good. She is so on top of her brief. Malcolm Farr will be the nuisance value he says he likes to be.
Robb on TV this morning. Was absolutely vile. Made all kinds of crap up to basically assert that we are overwhelmingly in debt and deficit and that it’s going to take for ever to fix it. Also:
– We survived the GFC because John Howard is a hero who made our economy invincible
– The statement that Australia’s debt is comparatively better than other nations is disingenuous, because it’s hardly good that Australia “may compare well to basket case economies”
He spent the whole time making shit up but sounding logical in its delivery. Wanted to vomit!
Is their anything in day to day life else the parties think they should be ‘helping out’ in?
Perhaps tax rebates for signing up at dating agencies?
So the whole $20k a year of private school fees are tax deductible?
[Wheres Kevin?
Seems like he’s dropped off the face of the Earth, perhaps he’s still licking the knife wounds in his back.]
He’s campaigning in his seat.
Do us a favour, copy+paste a different opinion that you have been given by the Liberal Party website…
“but sounding logical in its delivery”
I find that hard to believe. robb is never logical – never.
Has Paris Hilton been asked to comment on Joe Hockey’s economic statment yet?
BG
LOL
[Campaigning in Griffith.]
Nope according to the news the other night Kevvie was no where to be seen.
No posters, no big campaign speeches, nothing from the Ruddster. He’s gone AWOL.
Apparantly he was off to the U.N setting himself up a nice little U.N diplomats job after he bails out after the election:
[FORMER prime minister Kevin Rudd is expected to start campaigning in his inner-city Brisbane electorate of Griffith today.
It comes a day after the Liberal National Party announced an untried 30-year-old candidate, finance and administration manager Rebecca Docherty, as its candidate for the seat.
It’s believed Mr Rudd will visit a local school.
Mr Rudd recently returned from a trip to the United States where he met top officials including UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
The LNP reportedly planned to parachute in a high-profile candidate for Griffith if Mr Rudd did an about-face and did not recontest his seat.
Griffith is a safe Labor seat, which Mr Rudd holds with a 12 per cent margin.]
[I find that hard to believe. robb is never logical – never.]
It wasn’t logical, it was fallacious. However, like all fallacy, it sounded logical.
The first thing Gilbert wants to talk about after that announcement, isn’t the announcement, but the Fair Work Act argy bargy.
Abbott looked deflated in that presser.
[So poor, old Father Christmas Oakes doesn’t even get a guernsey as part of the Great Debate panel!
How the once mighty have fallen ….]
Just watch him if Ch9 has a studio audience and the worm. He’ll be out to prove that his opinion is the only one that matters.
Quite like Malcolm Farr tbh, for a News journo anyway.
He’s an old cynic imo. Is happy enough to give everyone a kick if he gets a scoop.
1224 – got my eye on a brand new Slazenger V900, so all for the rebate on cricket bats to be honest 😀
“It wasn’t logical, it was fallacious. However, like all fallacy, it sounded logical.”
which is why the ALP needs to run ads on the true state of the govt debt and deficit in a global contest. the debt and deficit campaign is the only thing the libs are trying to hang their hats on and it can be easily dispelled. robb is the worst offender – he bluffs and blusters his way through but his comments are baseless. the debt is negligable – ALP should be strong and proud about that
Abbott wants to pay for kids music lessons? Not something I would support.
So Tony does a positive announcement to break the new cycle and the journos are still on workchoices.
This is trainwreck territory.
I predict some polls will hit the malcolm turnbull levels.
I must confess it was amusing to see Kroger last night claim that everything that has happened in the last few days has worked to the Libs’ advantage. While I realise a rep of a party must always spin something positively, it just made me laugh how convoluted the spin actually was.
“The Workchoices attack favours us, because we were expecting it and it’s better to get it out of the way early”
“We’re scrambling to organise ourselves because nobody could foresee an election was going to be called on the weekend. The ALP are evil because they have headquarters that are permanently staffed.”
[1224 – got my eye on a brand new Slazenger V900, so all for the rebate on cricket bats to be honest]
Could never go past Gray Nicholls but always had an unusual soft spot for Duncan Fearnely.
So what was actually announced or where is the presser link please
The ALP need to get in early & squash this debt screaming match.
Possibly an ad with floating statement banners from reputable sources whilst narrating how great the economy is & how low the deficit is.
Outstandingly positive statements from the UN, IMF, Prof.Stigler, the RBA, Consertive NZ PM & his chief economist, can’t remember that other world revered economist, etc.etc. contradicting the Coalitions bullshit.
[He spent the whole time making shit up but sounding logical in its delivery. Wanted to vomit!]
TSOP – my OH left the room but I watched. I posted earlier that he got an easy ride with big smiles from the presenters at the end of piece. Robb’s smile was huge in return.
Truly sickening to see the difference at the end of the Emerson piece. Emerson was given less time. There was absolutely no smile on the presenters’ faces but a cold stare instead.
This is not right.
[which is why the ALP needs to run ads on the true state of the govt debt and deficit in a global contest. ]
Never campaign on your opponent’s issues. Every minute spent talking about your opponent’s issues is a minute lost from talking about your issues.