Morgan phone poll: Gillard approval slump

Roy Morgan has published leadership ratings from a phone survey of 680 respondents conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and it shows Julia Gillard taking a solid hit. Gillard’s approval is down 12 points to 46 per cent and her disapproval up 10 to 37 per cent, while Tony Abbott is now equal on approval with Gillard, having risen four points to 46 per cent, and down eight on disapproval to 40 per cent. Abbott has also narrowed his preferred prime minister deficit from 58-29 to 48-33. The shifts are compared with last week’s phone poll, which showed what seemed an excessive 55.5-44.5 two-party Labor lead. While the consistency in shifts towards Abbott and away from Gillard seems consistent with the idea that sampling issues at least partly explain the size of the change, it should be noted that Monday’s Newspoll also showed significant falls in Gillard’s personal ratings. There has been chatter about a looming 50-50 two-party result from Morgan, which would seem consistent with the figures provided.

My federal election guide will be unveiled in all its glory today, work on which has prevented me from providing more than sporadic coverage of late. Hopefully that will now improve.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

842 comments on “Morgan phone poll: Gillard approval slump”

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  1. [All these ads (on both sides) have been thoroughly tested on the much-despised focus groups of swinging voters. They work. They hit home. They cut through.]

    Yes, those pro-mining tax ads were just fantastic. They worked a treat. I remember you dropkicks saying the same thing when I said those ads were rubbish too.

  3. [Bushfire Bill, these techniques are used because they work. It doesn’t matter whether you or I find these ads crass, or unoriginal, or boring, or an insult to our intelligence. They’re not aimed at us. All these ads (on both sides) have been thoroughly tested on the much-despised focus groups of swinging voters. They work. They hit home. They cut through. They influence how people think about issues, about parties, about leaders. They influence how people vote. You can bet that the “pull the plug” image is being used over and over because it’s been tested and found to hit home, to crystallise a real fear about what Abbott will do. If you don’t like the way election campaigns are run these days, spend the next three weeks bushwalking.]

    This is the talk of a factional hack and nothing more. The revisionism was seen with Rudd>Gillard, watch it occur again if Labor happens to go government>opposition.

    Mark my words.

  6. Where is Lindsay Tanner? Of course, since he’s not seeking re-election, it’s understandable he’d take a lower profile role.

    I worry that Labor is setting itself up for a major onslaught down the track in the campaign over the missing ministers. Who will be Finance Minister? Who will be Foreign Minister? Who will be Defence Minister? It’s the kind of thing the Libs will drop into the mix the moment the leaks brouhaha dies down (for the moment).

    Showcasing Lindsay Tanner’s very impressive knowledge and debating skills is not a negative even though he’s going. It reminds voters of the depth of talent of the Government.

  7. Dio:

    [Yes, those pro-mining tax ads were just fantastic. They worked a treat. I remember you dropkicks saying the same thing when I said those ads were rubbish too.]

    You are so wRONg, that they helped in part to bring down a Prime minister 🙂

  8. I have to say I voted Greiner/Fahey, and as much as I liked Carr personally… that kind of Lib offering federally would be v compelling. Hell, I even miss Jeff Kennett and would look at Gingrich over Obama… must be losing my mind

  9. [Yes, those pro-mining tax ads were just fantastic…]

    They were Govt ads, they had the problem of being hamstrung by a former PM’s advertising policy. 😛

  11. [You are so wRONg, that they helped in part to bring down a Prime minister]

    Is this what they call no longer defending the indefensible…? 🙂

  12. If you want a great ad for the GFC Stimulus, try intercutting happy smiling Australian faces at work with riots in Greece, shifty bankers in NY, housing fire sales in the US and Europe and dole queues inthe UK (yes, the grainier the better).

    Cut back to the BER projects. Little kids in their new science rooms, and at assembly in their new halls, even a few shots of look-at-me grinning Libs at the opening ceremonies trying to soak up some of the glory.

    Then contrast these with Abbott saying he wouldn’t stimulate the economy, Hockey waffling on about inflation and interest rates… jumbled voice-overs, all naysaying.

    Back to ordinary, decent folk able to have holidays at golden beaches, driving on highways built with infrastructure funds, goods railways working non-stop, the NBN rollout, business people in board rooms shaking hands that their firms survived, telling their staffs “Relax, no-one’s losing their job” (and the staff breathe a sigh of relief), flash a couple of low metrics from tickertapes and stock exchange crawlers – unemployment, interest rates – showing the stunned reaction of the gloom-and-doom merchants who kept on telling us we were in recession and finally had to admit we weren’t (and a couple of told-you-so faces walking past them, smiling at their negativity).

    Mix it all up. Show how we did better than anybody, through the workers and the bosses, the retailers and the tradies, the ordinary people, being able to keep their confidence high due to the Labor Stimulus Package. FX over with American and Pomjie news commentators saying, “Australia has done amazingly well,” or wtte.

    Give people something to remember, both as to how good it was and how bad it might have been. Upbeat, positive, moving forward, optimistic and most of all, happy (without the smarmy) faces. Real people. Not actors.

    Then end it with your grainy photo, if you like, of Abbott, Hockey and Robb together outside some dingy meeting room, harsh, key-lit only (there must be ONE around)… echo some choice negative words of theirs and close with the graphic, “Oh really, Mr. Abbott? 8 million Australians still working together, still with their jobs and their homes say you’re wrong… again”

    You can pack all that into 60 seconds and make people happy we have the government we have and make them loathe the prospect of the Abbott Workhouse.

  14. [those pro-mining tax ads were just fantastic]

    The campaign from both sides had barely begun when the ads were pulled. We don’t know what sort of other messages and means of delivery either side had in store. I agree the first round of Govt ads were poor but so were the miner’s ads IMO.

  16. Their is one area which Labor has it all over Abbott and that is on Climate Change and Labor has during this election hardly mentioned it. He does not believe in doing very much. Labor believes in it but its policy is what? The citizens assembly has not gone down well, and what is its policy.
    Workchoices has hardly been mentioned, and the scrapping of Fast Broadband and the sale of Medibank Private also.
    So far it has been about leaks, Julia’ defacto relationship and now about her not being religious.
    The have hardly laid a glove on Abbott in this campaign to date.

  17. I wish the idea of comparing Australia’s avoidance of recession in the GFC with the economic chaos abroad was likely to gain some traction, but I doubt it. That sort of scare mongering would be treated with cynicism and contempt by many voters even though it is entirely valid to highlight Australia’s avoidance of recession as outlined by noted economist Joseph Stiglitz the other night.

    Australians tend to see themselves as the lucky country, and trying to make out they might have suffered the fate of the Greeks or even the Americans will not wash, in my humble opinion.

  19. That’s a great message BB.

    I reckon such an ad would be really effective and could be knocked together in no time at all.

  21. [That’s a great message BB.

    I reckon such an ad would be really effective and could be knocked together in no time at all.]

    Well do it and post it on Youtube, like anyone else can and has done.

  22. Oh, and in case any amigos lurk (the Hilary-Obama flame war was the best in PB HIstory imo) – I concede now that maybe you were right…

  28. marky,

    Absolute winner to have glam shots of Gillard in hundreds of thousands of homes. If this came through as electoral paraphernalia in the letterbox most would be turfed out without being read. Surely, even you can see that a positive mesxsage in an appealing format targetted at a specific audience is a winner.

  29. Frank

    [You are so wRONg, that they helped in part to bring down a Prime minister 🙂 ]

    Now that you mention it I seem to recall Arbib, Shorten and Gillard organised those ads…

  30. [I don’t have the resources nor the time Frank. Now if I was a campaign director ….]

    You have Movie Maker on your PC – grab appropriate photos via Google images – record suitable voice over and post.

  34. BB

    I believe that this election will be won on a grassroots level.
    People are seeing and experiencing the BER for themselves. They are fully aware of what is going on. People employed to work at these projects, know they have a job because of it. Parents of children going to school are seeing the benefits of these projects.

    For eg. Julia announced the Disability initiative today. The word will spread quickly to people affected in this area, of the extra benefits coming their way.

    On the ground, that is where it will be won.

  35. Because people may see it is a gimic and not meaning to much. It may also be crawling to voters who do not generally vote Labor. Although that is to not to say that it may also work with women voters and the elderly who tend to buy this trashy magazine. The swingers in Western Sydney i would think are not Women’ Weekly voters however.

  39. BB
    [You can pack all that into 60 seconds and make people happy we have the government we have and make them loathe the prospect of the Abbott Workhouse.]
    Yep! It would work. The UN, the IMF, Stiglits & every other nation on earth is talking about Australias success. We have to make voters aware of what a good job this government did. It was so good at insulating us from the GFC that it has fallen off the radar of achievements.
    Have you looked at the Coalition’s fear ad about carbon tax? What the? I thought they said we had no CC policy.
    The ALP should do an add that states the true cost of the Coalitions CC policy. It’s all about the polluters paying nothing & shifting the entire cost to the taxpayer.
    Turnball stated the cost will be extremely higher to implement than a Carbon Tax/ETS model.

  42. Gees Morgan polls are rubbish. It says that is a post debate poll but it was taken on the 24th & 25th. How many in this already small sample were actually questioned after the debate?

  44. Expat Follower

    [Oh, and in case any amigos lurk (the Hilary-Obama flame war was the best in PB HIstory imo) – I concede now that maybe you were right… ]

    Now that was a decent election, two heavyweights toe-to-toe. It was also the only flamewar with a greater than 50% mortality rate. I bet we lose no-one in this insipid election.

  45. [trashy magazine]

    Your opinion and mine BUT there are millions of Australian women who disagree. This was the sort of positive publicity that money simply could not buy.

  48. [Their is one area which Labor has it all over Abbott and that is on Climate Change and Labor has during this election hardly mentioned it. ]

    That’s because climate change is not a vote-changer. It’s an elite issue. The swinging voters find it confusing and threatening. That’s why the Libs can run their carbon tax scare campaign – swinging voters now see a carbon tax as more scary than climate change. We had a consensus on action on climate in 2007-09, but, thanks to the Berlin-Moscow Axis in the Senate, we were unable to act, and now the consensus no longer exists.

  49. Expat Follower
    Posted Thursday, July 29, 2010 at 5:51 pm | Permalink

    “Oh, and in case ANY amigos lurk (the Hilary-Obama flame war was the best in PB HIstory imo) – I concede now that maybe you were RIGHT…”

    Amigo GG here and me , yes other lot (50 of them elitists against us 3) were wRONg , again

    Barbeque Bill , add is fine for “who” is being targetted , but you and me just not one of th “who” This is “softening” up ….wait till W/C add hits tv screens

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