Newspoll has it at 50-50, with Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, from 50-34 to 50-35. The primary votes are 37 per cent Labor, 44 per cent Coalition and 12 per cent Greens. More to follow.
UPDATE: Full results here, plus bonus stuff on leaders’ personality traits here. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is actually up a point to 42 per cent, but her disapproval is up three to 40 per cent. Tony Abbott’s approval is up four points to 44 per cent and his disapproval steady on 46 per cent.
We also have Essential Research in at 54-46 for Labor, down from 55-45 over recent weeks. As Bernard Keane reports it in Crikey:
Labor’s primary vote has dropped a point to 40%, only slightly ahead of the Coalition, which has remained steady on 39%. The Greens, too, have remained steady on 13%, as yet undented by the impact of the campaign. That yields a 2PP outcome of 54-46.
On approval ratings, however, Gillard has gone backwards, with a three-point fall in approval and a five-point rise in disapproval, to 46-38% — her lowest net approval rating in her limited time as PM. Abbott has picked up three points in approval, although that’s offset by a small increase in disapproval, meaning he continues with a net disapproval rating — 38-48%.
Gillard’s lead as better PM has shrunk seven points from 25 last week to 48-30% this week. There’s still a very big gender gap on better PM: Gillard’s lead among men is 12 points; among women, 24 points — 50-26%. Men and women now equally disapprove of Tony Abbott — 48% — but he leads amongst men in approval ratings, 41-35%. Gillard has a much lower disapproval rating among women.
However, the Coalition will be buoyed by the positive reception of Abbott’s pledge to cap immigration at 170,000, with 64% of voters approving and only 22% rejecting the notion. Support is very strong amongst Liberal voters — 91% — but even Labor voters like it (52-32%). The Coalition has a big lead among voters in perceptions of who is best at handling immigration, 35-23% over Labor.
UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here. “Reason for voting preference” has four times as many people voting Coalition because the government has been bad than voting for Labor because it has been good, and four times as many people citing the leaders as the reason for voting Labor than Coalition. Julia Gillard’s personal ratings reflect the overall trend in showing her three points down on approval to 46 per cent and up five points up on disapproval to 38 per cent. However, Tony Abbott records more modest changes, up three on approval to 38 per cent and up two on disapproval to 48 per cent. At 47-30, Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is basically the same as Kevin Rudd’s in his last poll, although her +8 approval rating compares with Rudd’s -6. A question on attitudes to the Senate finds respondents perfectly divided as to whether a minor party balance-of-power situation is a good thing (though I can only say the 10 per cent who favour Opposition control of the Senate haven’t thought things through). Very strong support is recorded for Tony Abbott’s lower immigration target, and the Coalition are favoured as best party on immigration.
[Abbott doesn’t ‘hate women’. FFS.]
Indeed. Why does everyone have to leap straight to “misogynist” these days? Doesn’t “sexist” cut it anymore?
GG
I am not responding to your posts until you apologise.
To other bludgers
Those who know me from 2006/7 will know that I have matured a great deal since then and for the better.
A misogynist hates women, by definition. I agree with Dagget that Abbott is more of a male chauvinist than a misogynist, although if he loses the election to a women he just might tip over.
victoria
I think both were dumb. On a personal level (and political), Abbott’s was much worse.
Gusface
Speaking of Latham. Will he be called upon by Sky to give the obligatory kick up the backside to Labor again. Or has he been warned off by threat of legal action by Rudd?
Dagget @ 3299
[She is so far removed from the white lamey churchy ones that it is not even a contest]
Oh my God! Julia’s a member of an oppressed racial minority is she? You people are fraking delusional.
Frank
[Meanwhile why isn’t Howard out on the Hustings ?]
Andrew Elder asked that self same question, with a comparison to Dolly:
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com/
[But Rudd is a big issue for the voters. ]
Actually — for the most part I think Rudd is a big issue for the media, supported by the libs. Most Aussies have moved on — and despite what you think you see happening in QLD, I doubt whether many will be influenced by his demise to the point that they’ll vote conservative in protest over it.
evan @3337 the individual seat markets tend to over-predict losses.
[you said it about bomber]
You’d better apologise Gusface because I never said that about Kim!
I never never said anything like that the biggest insult in my day would be the petty Big Kim label which was out of line.
The idiots in the press gallery complain that the leaders are scripted, boring and uninteresting, then they criticise every last syllable of the leaders. They can’t have it both ways. Either they let the leaders be themselves and not take themselves so seriously, or they can impute non-existent implications from every single word the leader says and watch them go into a cocoon of silence and risk aversion.
Sporting Bet has similar odds to Centrebet.
Mick, your Liberal mates are obviously splurging lots of loot on Abbott. 😉
Poor Julia. She looked sad to me. This was her dream. You ALP types better keep her on after she loses, she’s a good leader with a bucket of bovine excrement policy, poor bugger.
[Indeed. Why does everyone have to leap straight to “misogynist” these days? Doesn’t “sexist” cut it anymore?]
Ah
the power of the big word
cuts thru and allows joe/josephine to skirt around gender roles and still attack abbott
The most working class electorate in Sydney is probably Fowler. I see the Greens candidate is a (gasp) small business owner! A filthy capitalist exploiter of the downtrodden proletariat! Quick, to the barricades! Where’s my pitchfork!?
That’s sickle tovarich
[Indeed. Why does everyone have to leap straight to “misogynist” these days? Doesn’t “sexist” cut it anymore?]
Problem is he has a long history to back up the assertion. While misogynist may be extreme, the glove doesn’t seem that much different to the size of his hand.
Phoney doesn’t have a problem with women, that’s why he’s dragging his wife and daughter along with him on the campaign trail. 😀
Evan.. seriously.. you DON’T want to see. You’ll just think it is all conspiracy.
My Lib mates do love it. My friends in other parties are more philosophical at this stage.
jenauthor
Rudd is definitely more of an issue for the media and Liberals.
By the way, I find it increasingly amusing that Julia Gillard is begging for a debate when but 10 days ago she was adamant that no further debates should happen. Abbott has called her bluff and now the PM looks desperate.
brian
hammer home the analogy
😉
William.. we really need a sandpit. It would suit the kind of reparte we all indulge in so frequently. Just give it a thought, anyway….
[But yes, he still climbs up onto my office chair, then onto the desk, and sleeps on the keyboard. Thank God he’s never managed to hit the “ENTER” key yet, or Diog would get really upset.]
Sorry to hear about your cat BB — didn’t they give him thyroxine for the thyroid issue?
Mick @3362, at least cow shit makes the garden grow. Your mob have a toxic waste policy instead.
Victoria: All this desperation to airbrush Rudd out of the political scene is ridiculous!
He’s still relevant.
Still waiting on your apology Gusface.
Glen
[Those who know me from 2006/7 will know that I have matured a great deal since then and for the better.]
I’ve definitely noticed that and it shows that people can change (I assume you are younger than most of us and young people change more than us oldies). The really big difference I’ve noticed is a much more enlightened approach to people suffering from mental illnesses, who are doing it very tough. It’s actually the only area I think Abbott is better than Gillard on.
Respekt!
[Why does everyone have to leap straight to “misogynist” these days?]
Well, some of the commentary on the wiki site seems to fit the bill:
[In feminist theory, other forms of misogyny may be less overt. Some alleged misogynists may simply be prejudiced against all women, or may hate women who do not fall into one or more acceptable categories. Subscribers to one model claim that some misogynists think in terms of the mother/whore dichotomy, where they hold that women can only be “mothers” or “whores.” Another variant model is the one alleging that certain men think in terms of a virgin/whore dichotomy, in which women who do not adhere to an Abrahamic standard of moral purity are considered “whores”…
In feminist theory, misogyny is a negative attitude towards women as a group, and so need not fully determine a misogynist’s attitude towards each individual woman. The fact that someone holds misogynist views may not prevent him or her from having positive relationships with some women…
Feminist theorist Marilyn Frye alleges that misogyny is phallogocentric and homoerotic at its root]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misogyny
I support Graeme’s post.. having been taught by him he is spot on… at the time I did feel like I was born to rule.. hold on….I still do… 😛 lol….
[William.. we really need a sandpit. It would suit the kind of reparte we all indulge in so frequently. Just give it a thought, anyway….]
MW, unfortunatley nobody will come and play in your sandpit.
Gus, did you like the turd polishing video? 🙂
Frankie V.
“Oh my God! Julia’s a member of an oppressed racial minority is she? You people are fraking delusional.”
WTF, where did I say oppressed racial minority?
I said she is not a middle aged, married white male god botherer.
Cud
LOL
I must say some here need to see it
Pebbles, and anyone who says Abbott ‘hates women’.
Just because someone is sexist and hasn’t caught up with the times on these issues doesn’t mean he ‘hates them’.
The KKK hate people of African-American descent. The Nazi’s hated Jews. Tony Abbott doesn’t hate women.
@GP/3369,
Yet at the same time, Mr Abbott outrightly refuses a new debate(when at any time he could have changed the date) the fact that he said “no means no”, is stupid at best, regardless of what Gillard said, makes him look just as bad as Gillard.
If your attacking Gillard over what she said, then put the same brush towards Abbott.
Big Ship @ 3285 and 3308
For sure, that Greg Peck doco was extremely moving, and all the more so since I saw it shortly after he passed away.
“Lawrence” admirers like us are fortunate that David Lean supervised its restoration about 20 years ago after the master copy had badly deteriorated. Peter O’Toole dubbed over some of his scenes which had degraded or no sound on the surviving prints. As BB noted, it’s a travesty that there’s no Blu-Ray as “Lawrence” is visually unsurpassed.
A treat for me to discuss films and novels which calmed me down before bedtime—a verbal glass of warm milk, so to speak. 🙂
William
I asked earlier if you still stood by your belief that Labor will come out on top and I haven’t found a reply.
Did I miss it or have you decided to stay out of the prediction caper?
BB we have the peter costello of cats, talks the talk, plays the big cat when nobody is looking but when he is challenged by number 1 at the food bowl he slinks off..
[By the way, I find it increasingly amusing that Julia Gillard is begging for a debate when but 10 days ago she was adamant that no further debates should happen. Abbott has called her bluff and now the PM looks desperate.]
When exactly was she “adamant that no further debates should happen”? I asked last night for a source for this assertion, and so far as I know none was produced, although I haven’t monitored every post since then.
Generic Person@3369
Candles:
You have forgotten to mention – like everyone else in the media and the Liberal Party to realise that the offer of a second debate was made by the host of Today Tonight, to which Gillard accepted.
Your Man Tony the Turncoat is on the record saying that he wanted another debate, but now he’s runnig away like the little girl he is.
Perhaps he is in need of a stint in his wife’s Child Care Centre – as a participant.
Diog I am in my 20s 🙂
My views have changed my beliefs and politics certainly have. I think for the better too.
I like you think Tony’s mental health policy is finally a step in the right direction.
It’s a shame he cant come up with many other great intiatives.
[Aussies reckon they’re great with the economy and I reckon they’re right. It could be good to have the Coalition in again, don’t you think?]
Hahahahaha
When we hit 8% unemployment next year (in you Abbott led govt fantasy) come back and tell us how wonderful the coalition would be. That says nothing about no NBN — an absolute MUST. But hey, all those 30 somethings from the eatern subs of sydney will be popping very expensive babies … ahhh, we’re saved!
Glen”if it wasnt you,then it was another of the nasties infesting ozpolitics
i will check with arbiejay re the culprit
(i dont have access to the 2006/7 server)
Glen,
I’ll keep calling your crap till you stop it.
Generic Person
I think that Ch7 will run the debate issue more. But JG can just ask “He wanted them, why not now?” and it will resonate more.
evan14
no one is airbrushing him out. He is recovering from an operation. What more needs to be done in that regard.
Glen and confreres are right: gotcha/gaffe excitement about Abbott’s puerile asides today are, well, puerile.
But something deeper keeps emerging to disturb and may explain the distaste of women voters for Abbott. The man’s conflicted/repressed sexuality practically oozes from him, and partially has defined him since he tried to take vows. It’s psychologically fascinating but, in day in day out Anglo politics, it’s a big turnoff.
[All this desperation to airbrush Rudd out of the political scene is ridiculous!
He’s still relevant.]
evan. This relevance will quickly fade if Labor lose the election.
Just two brief comments on today:
I saw ABC news tonight and it definitely came across as a better day for Labor. No mistakes, and better targetted comments.
As for Abbott’s comments, I agree they are chauvinistic not mysogynist. It would not be wise for Labor to push that too far. Don’t get down to the same level, and as long as Julia comes across as combative but controlled, peopel will soon notice the difference at a pesonal level. If Labor points it out they will just look mean.
Gusface
I wasnt the only ‘rabid’ Tory on Ozpolitics.
Nostro
GP
Others I cant even remember.
But I am certain the only rude thing I said was Big Kim.
[ MW, unfortunatley nobody will come and play in your sandpit. ]
And all the cats in the neighbourhood will come and crap in it.