Newspoll: 50-50

Newspoll has it at 50-50, with Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, from 50-34 to 50-35. The primary votes are 37 per cent Labor, 44 per cent Coalition and 12 per cent Greens. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full results here, plus bonus stuff on leaders’ personality traits here. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is actually up a point to 42 per cent, but her disapproval is up three to 40 per cent. Tony Abbott’s approval is up four points to 44 per cent and his disapproval steady on 46 per cent.

We also have Essential Research in at 54-46 for Labor, down from 55-45 over recent weeks. As Bernard Keane reports it in Crikey:

Labor’s primary vote has dropped a point to 40%, only slightly ahead of the Coalition, which has remained steady on 39%. The Greens, too, have remained steady on 13%, as yet undented by the impact of the campaign. That yields a 2PP outcome of 54-46.

On approval ratings, however, Gillard has gone backwards, with a three-point fall in approval and a five-point rise in disapproval, to 46-38% — her lowest net approval rating in her limited time as PM. Abbott has picked up three points in approval, although that’s offset by a small increase in disapproval, meaning he continues with a net disapproval rating — 38-48%.

Gillard’s lead as better PM has shrunk seven points from 25 last week to 48-30% this week. There’s still a very big gender gap on better PM: Gillard’s lead among men is 12 points; among women, 24 points — 50-26%. Men and women now equally disapprove of Tony Abbott — 48% — but he leads amongst men in approval ratings, 41-35%. Gillard has a much lower disapproval rating among women.

However, the Coalition will be buoyed by the positive reception of Abbott’s pledge to cap immigration at 170,000, with 64% of voters approving and only 22% rejecting the notion. Support is very strong amongst Liberal voters — 91% — but even Labor voters like it (52-32%). The Coalition has a big lead among voters in perceptions of who is best at handling immigration, 35-23% over Labor.

UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here. “Reason for voting preference” has four times as many people voting Coalition because the government has been bad than voting for Labor because it has been good, and four times as many people citing the leaders as the reason for voting Labor than Coalition. Julia Gillard’s personal ratings reflect the overall trend in showing her three points down on approval to 46 per cent and up five points up on disapproval to 38 per cent. However, Tony Abbott records more modest changes, up three on approval to 38 per cent and up two on disapproval to 48 per cent. At 47-30, Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is basically the same as Kevin Rudd’s in his last poll, although her +8 approval rating compares with Rudd’s -6. A question on attitudes to the Senate finds respondents perfectly divided as to whether a minor party balance-of-power situation is a good thing (though I can only say the 10 per cent who favour Opposition control of the Senate haven’t thought things through). Very strong support is recorded for Tony Abbott’s lower immigration target, and the Coalition are favoured as best party on immigration.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,750 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. Abbott’s flat “no” to more debates is only a good idea if you accept the proposition that the Liberals are in the box seat. I don’t accept this, I think the election is up for grabs, but Labor’s probably still in front.

    So Abbott needed to give a more nuanced response, designed to make it look like he was happy to debate but Labor was being intransigent. That would have worked in nicely with the end of the first debate, when the few people who weren’t getting ready for Masterchef saw Abbott looking keen and Gillard, not at all keen.

    Unfortunately it looks like the parties are choosing alternating weeks to have shockers. This week seems to be the Liberals’ turn.

  2. [If your so called Hero Mr Abbott was serious at all, he’d be debating to shut Gillard up and ask for more debates himself.]

    Geeez we still going on about this.

    Why on earth would Abbott debate JGillard, it has only downside potential for him given the polling. The same went for JGillard, she only wanted the one debate so as to not give Abbott too much free air. She now wants to debate because the polls have slipped for her and she is a little desperate.

    Both of them have taken their positions for the best electoral advantage. Simple.

    This calling coward, or unfair or whatever is just rubbish. If you want to call Abbott a coward then you would have to call JGillard one in the first instance for going for the one debate.

    Abbott would be stupid to go for another debate, there is nothing in it for him, unless the polls suddenly go the other way again.

  3. GP’s avatar is the Republican Party symbol. Says a lot really.

    That symbol represents a shameful period in the US. From 2000 to 2008, the Republicans destroyed the US for their own profits and gains. But they like to use the term trickle down economics. You know, they take all the cream, and if you are lucky you get what is left. Happened to be Sweet F A.

  4. No 3494

    I would argue my approach to hyperbole has been reductive…. 😀

    And no, I was actually at the Central Coast on the weekend door-knocking and doing shopping centre walkthroughs.

  6. Julia’s Debate challenge has done ‘a job’

    Even if Abbott was rite that Julia refused more debates (where is proof ?) , effect of Julia’s challenge is to make Abbott look a wimp , AND allow econamy to be AN issue

  7. GP, do you have any evidence at all that Julia G has been “begging” for a debate, or are you just mindlessly following instructions from the Fiberal HQ drone controllers??

  9. You think with MPD (Multiple Personality Disorder) Julia could have coughed up a little more for the mentally ill, don’t you think?

    Well the OLD Julia would have.. no..no.the new one.. Hang on the new new Julia not the old new Julia…

  11. @Thomas Paine/3502,

    We are still on this issue because people like GP make it an issue.

    “Both of them have taken their positions for the best electoral advantage. Simple.”

    Which is what I said about Gillard on the Economy.

    “This calling coward, or unfair or whatever is just rubbish. If you want to call Abbott a coward then you would have to call JGillard one in the first instance for going for the one debate.”

    Which is what I said about both of them earlier in the thread.

    “Abbott would be stupid to go for another debate, there is nothing in it for him, unless the polls suddenly go the other way again.”

    But it can go against him as well by not going, it’s a double edge sword, just like Gillard in the first debate.

    Glad that we agree 🙂

  13. Dyno,

    Good observation.

    It’s like the Libs thought all those policy guns aimed at them were never going to start booming shells.

  14. No 3501

    This week has hardly been a “shocker” for Abbott. The “no means no” nonsense is a beat-up by the likes of Samantha Maiden and Ben Fordham, the same dunces who complain about boring campaigns and scripted set pieces, only to relish in attacking every ad-lib syllable a politician utters.

    Also, Tanner has been disastrous in the last day or so. He was completely snookered on Insight as well. He is clearly the leaker.

  15. [Abbott’s flat “no” to more debates is only a good idea if you accept the proposition that the Liberals are in the box seat.]

    Exactly. Abbott also said twice today that the Labor Party are “in trouble”. That suggests that the Coalition isn’t. We all know that internal polling shows Labor are slipping, but he needs to repeat the line “We are not getting carried away with any polling”.

    My wife, who is politically illiterate and takes no interest whatsoever (she’s the smart one), heard Tony say on the news “Now that Labor are in trouble…” and said “He shouldn’t have said that.”

  17. With the way the Reps conduct themselves, Barnaby would no doubt be overstimulated there.

    He would burst. And we’d finally be able to see just how long his bile duct really is.

  18. Mick Wilkinson@3509

    You think with MPD (Multiple Personality Disorder) Julia could have coughed up a little more for the mentally ill, don’t you think?

    Well the OLD Julia would have.. no..no.the new one.. Hang on the new new Julia not the old new Julia…

    What a pathetic cheap shot at those with a Mental Illness.

    And typical from the Conservatives who blog here.

    Grow a Brain.

  20. I think it is funny when Australians have American Democrat bumper stickers on their cars oblivious to the fact that they are further right than any of our current parties over 2% primary!! They are righter than the Coalition by a long way…

  23. [Abbott’s called her bluff and nobody will care about Julia’s squealing.]

    GP — if he called the bluff, as you say, he would have accepted. By saying no he didn’t call anyone’s bluff.

    But is a moot point because it was channel 7s White’s bluff actually.

  24. No 3508

    LOL I can’t help but laugh at this crap which says Abbott is “scared” of women. What absolute nonsense. The only person who is scared of more debate is Julia Gillard.

  25. [Why on earth would Abbott debate JGillard, it has only downside potential for him given the polling.]

    True TP. However, not debating her, and being seen to leave ALL the heavy lifting on the economy to Hockey in his debate with Swan is downside for him as well.

    Funny, he was neatly manuvered into the Health debate by Rudd and Albo. He’s now manuvered into a lose/lose on the economy, by Gillard, simply because she chose to not follow the script and take a punt in that TT interview.

  28. I also note Tanner refused to rule himself out as the leaker.

    This story still has legs.

    He was after all in the gang of four?

  31. [Well Tanner has gone missing throughout this whole campaign.]

    So had Hockey, Joyce and Pyne until Monday. I wonder why?

  32. GP, if we accept the ‘no means no’ stuff is a beat-up, it most certainly could not have been an unpredictable beat-up. I’m not exactly sure why Abbott chose to run with this line (4 times) when it could so obviously distract from his message “We are great for women”. It was an avoidable blunder. I doubt it’ll affect many votes but it might confirm already held negative views of him.

  33. Let’s look at some real facts:

    * The vast majority of respected economists expected Australia to fall into recession.

    * The vast majority of respected economists expected unemployment to rist to at least 7%.

    * The Labor Party stimulus prevented the above two points from occuring

    * The Liberal Party opposed the stimulus.

    * Inflation and interest rates were higher under the previous (Liberal) government than this (Labor) government.

    The Liberals are chicken!

    Bring on the debate!

  37. You forgot if the Libs left Labor 96b debt when they left office in 2007 as Labor did to them in 1996 then please explain how Labor could have staved off a recession?

  38. No 3528

    Gillard lost her rook and queen last week, she hasn’t got any chess pieces of any worth left on her front line.

  44. No 3531

    It’s not a blunder at all. Apparently holding her to her word means you’re a sexist pig. You can’t have it both ways.

  45. [Gillard lost her rook and queen last week, she hasn’t got any chess pieces of any worth left on her front line.]

    A good player can still win with 2 knights, 2 bishops and 1 rook remaining.

  46. No 3536

    What’s even worse is the fact that Gillard said she delivered three tax cuts in a row, when in fact these tax cuts were promised by John Howard in 2007 and mimicked by Rudd.

  48. [franks nappy service will need to be franchised at this rate]

    That awfully offensive Gusface.

    Surely you can clean up your language and still abuse people as you have been doing.

  49. No 3542

    Swan is a terrible operator. He actually looks hysterical during interviews now, hyperventilating to the nth degree.

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