Newspoll: 50-50

Newspoll has it at 50-50, with Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, from 50-34 to 50-35. The primary votes are 37 per cent Labor, 44 per cent Coalition and 12 per cent Greens. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full results here, plus bonus stuff on leaders’ personality traits here. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is actually up a point to 42 per cent, but her disapproval is up three to 40 per cent. Tony Abbott’s approval is up four points to 44 per cent and his disapproval steady on 46 per cent.

We also have Essential Research in at 54-46 for Labor, down from 55-45 over recent weeks. As Bernard Keane reports it in Crikey:

Labor’s primary vote has dropped a point to 40%, only slightly ahead of the Coalition, which has remained steady on 39%. The Greens, too, have remained steady on 13%, as yet undented by the impact of the campaign. That yields a 2PP outcome of 54-46.

On approval ratings, however, Gillard has gone backwards, with a three-point fall in approval and a five-point rise in disapproval, to 46-38% — her lowest net approval rating in her limited time as PM. Abbott has picked up three points in approval, although that’s offset by a small increase in disapproval, meaning he continues with a net disapproval rating — 38-48%.

Gillard’s lead as better PM has shrunk seven points from 25 last week to 48-30% this week. There’s still a very big gender gap on better PM: Gillard’s lead among men is 12 points; among women, 24 points — 50-26%. Men and women now equally disapprove of Tony Abbott — 48% — but he leads amongst men in approval ratings, 41-35%. Gillard has a much lower disapproval rating among women.

However, the Coalition will be buoyed by the positive reception of Abbott’s pledge to cap immigration at 170,000, with 64% of voters approving and only 22% rejecting the notion. Support is very strong amongst Liberal voters — 91% — but even Labor voters like it (52-32%). The Coalition has a big lead among voters in perceptions of who is best at handling immigration, 35-23% over Labor.

UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here. “Reason for voting preference” has four times as many people voting Coalition because the government has been bad than voting for Labor because it has been good, and four times as many people citing the leaders as the reason for voting Labor than Coalition. Julia Gillard’s personal ratings reflect the overall trend in showing her three points down on approval to 46 per cent and up five points up on disapproval to 38 per cent. However, Tony Abbott records more modest changes, up three on approval to 38 per cent and up two on disapproval to 48 per cent. At 47-30, Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is basically the same as Kevin Rudd’s in his last poll, although her +8 approval rating compares with Rudd’s -6. A question on attitudes to the Senate finds respondents perfectly divided as to whether a minor party balance-of-power situation is a good thing (though I can only say the 10 per cent who favour Opposition control of the Senate haven’t thought things through). Very strong support is recorded for Tony Abbott’s lower immigration target, and the Coalition are favoured as best party on immigration.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,750 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. No 3546

    My mother and my female friends in the party and elsewhere aren’t in the slightest bit offended about Tony’s remarks.

    Ms Foot-in-mouth Hanson Young is an irrelevant consideration.

  2. [Swan is a terrible operator. He actually looks hysterical during interviews now, hyperventilating to the nth degree]

    Only if you’re a rusted on liberal who’s not interested in talking about the economy.

    I thought he did a great job.

  3. [A good player can still win with 2 knights, 2 bishops and 1 rook remaining.]

    But they’re playing against the equivalent of a blind illiterate 6 year old though. Shouldn’t be needing to fight too hard.

  4. GP,

    Rudd shepherded Australia throught the GFC. A true patriot.

    Whereas the collective Libs are traitors to all Australian families.

  5. As I said earlier. The main problem with Tony’s comments is not the original comment but how he responded when caught out. Had he just said “I’m sorry, my comments were not alluding to rape and I did not mean to offend the victims of rape” it would’ve been over. Instead he chose to lash out and blame Labor for smearing him. He doesn’t understand what’s wrong with what he said – that’s where the poor form lies.

  6. No 3553

    Coming from a rusted-on left wing Labor supporter. Why am I not surprised about your excessive praise for him?

  7. It is not mock outrage I just think it is quite a distateful thing to say and offensive to people who are afflicted by such injuries that require that service.

  8. GP, there was no other way to make his point other than using the phrase ‘no means no’? I don’t believe that. He should’ve stuck to his carefully prepared script.

  9. Corrine Grant’s Twitter is growing legs:

    Corinne Grant corinne_grant

    Abbott makes ‘no means no’ rape joke at Gillard’s expense then refuses 2 apologise. Let’s hope he finds out what ‘no’ means on election day. about 7 hours ago via web Retweeted by you and 100+ others

  10. [Ms Foot-in-mouth Hanson Young is an irrelevant consideration.]

    GP

    her comments made her go up 1000% in my esteem

    maybe you should take the earplugs out next time?

  11. [Glen is still outraged that the Vic redistribution commissioners haven’t moved him into a Liberal electorate.]

    St. Kilda Road into Dunkley would do nicely 🙂

    I’m not asking for much 😀

  12. [What’s even worse is the fact that Gillard said she delivered three tax cuts in a row, when in fact these tax cuts were promised by John Howard in 2007 and mimicked by Rudd.]

    The word is DELIVERED GP. Promises mean nothing when you’ve lost your seat!

  13. Hell Glen, they sold Telstra.

    Q. Did Costello deliver a budget surplus in 96. A. Yes.

    Q. Did Costello deliver a budget surplus in 07. A. Yes.

    Q. Did Swan deliver a budget surplus in 08. A. Yes.

    Who had the bigger surplus, Costello in 07 or Swan in 08. A. Swan.

  14. [Read the papers, watch the news. I’m not here to do your homework.]

    Weak, very weak. You can’t substantiate your claims, because they’re untrue, as you knew when you made them. Your hyperbole catches you out every time.

  15. No 3569

    Centre, that 2008 surplus was delivered thanks to the economic management of Peter Costello and John Howard. Swan had only been in the job for six months and he only increased the size of the surplus by raising taxes.

  16. GP,

    Yeah, tell that to the 200,000 people that kept their jobs during the GFC and the small busineses that survived.

  17. [Read the papers, watch the news. ]

    Ahhh — that’s where you’re going wrong.

    Get the facts first. See the whole press conference — not just the 3 second clip on the news. Go on — broaden your mind a little. It’ll be educational, I promise!

  18. I know we all have different political persuasions but I don’t understand why Costello AND Swan can’t both have done a good job as Treasurer?

  19. [Coming from a rusted-on left wing Labor supporter. Why am I not surprised about your excessive praise for him]

    Actually I’m not a rusted on Labor supporter. But I notice you did not deny you are a rusted on liberal supporter..

  20. [Why isn’t anyone discussing the Lateline interview with Swan? Didn’t anyone watch]

    Interesting question: – i’m a swinging voter, I work in Financial services, and I have post graduate qualificiations in economics…

    …..and yet I wouldn’t give twenty seconds of my life to hear what Swannie thinks, says or does in this election period.

    His only major achievement has been to spend lots of money when there was a pile of loot left in the bank by Costello.

    Now he wants to be given credit for promising to deliver a budget surplus in three years time…jesus…What exactly is supposed to impress me about that?

  21. No 3573

    They’re quite true. She was all over the news tonight demanding debates from Tony Abbott. “Bring it on” and tosh like that. Fact is, I’ve been reading Restitution textbooks for five hours and I’m not interested in research to tickle your ego.

  22. Pseph, most residents who live in Toorak end up shopping in Prahran anyway.

    The only thing I ever buy in Toorak is coffee

  23. Queensland Opposition Leaders Chief of Staff rates Rabbott highly?

    [The biggest risk to the Queensland economy is a federal government led by Tony Abbott—a federal government determined to cut spending in Queensland, to cut public investment in the projects that we have on our books now.

    We know that Peter Costello says that Tony Abbott is a risk to the
    economy, but closer to home we have some other LNP strategists who have had a little bit of something to say about Tony Abbott. This article is titled ‘If the answer is Tony Abbott, what the hell was the question?’ It goes on to to say—
    Electing Tony Abbott as leader of the Liberals sends the message loud and clear that the screaming banshees have taken control of the agenda.

    Who could have written such an insightful observation? None other than Ross Musgrove, the chief of staff to the Leader of the Opposition. Mr Musgrove did not restrict his comments to the leadership of Tony Abbott. What did he have to say about the Leader of the Opposition? He said—
    Who can believe what is happening in the opposition camp. John-Paul Peter Brian Fred Tinkerbell Langbroek has all the political fight of a French poodle.
    That is what the chief of staff has to say. So I encourage members to read the journal of the Queensland Police Union, because the person who made one of the most observant comments about Tony Abbott—that the banshees are in charge—is now the chief of staff to the Leader of the Opposition.

    Qld Parliament Hansard 3 Aug 2010

    http://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/view/legislativeAssembly/hansard.asp?SubArea=latest

  24. [She was all over the news tonight demanding debates from Tony Abbott.]

    Your argument keeps falling over there, GP.

  25. I think I’ll preference Danby ahead of the Greens this year Adam.
    Not that it matters really when you vote for a major party.

    BTW

    How bout them Dees????? 😉

  26. [It’s not that he doesn’t understand, it’s just that there isn’t ANYTHING wrong with what he said.]

    You’re wrong. There is a clear allusion to rape, he got called out on. All he needed to do was clarify that was not his attention and that he was sorry for the offense. Instead he got defensive and accused Labor of a smear campaign, even though the ALP had nothing to do with it. It was very poorly handled.

  27. The thing I don’t get about rich Victorians is why they would want to live in a suburb with a god awful name like Toorak. It sounds too bogan to be worth wasting millions on mansion there.

  28. [Why isn’t anyone discussing the Lateline interview with Swan? Didn’t anyone watch]

    Just watched it Swan put in a very strong performance despite the obnoxious line of question by Leigh Sales who was showing no manners watsoever. She tried to belittle Swan for looking back to the economic achievement of the govt – we’ll sorry what is wrong with that any govt who had achived the miracle economy would do that, howard always spoke about his past achievements on the economy. The Libs are trying to attack wasteful spending and bats etc so Swan is perfectly entitled to talk about the past economic achievement. Leigh Sales trying but failing miserably as a Tony Jones type interviewer.

  29. [As I said earlier. The main problem with Tony’s comments is not the original comment but how he responded when caught out.]

    The ‘no means no’ thing was obviously cooked up and rehearsed. This means it passed through campaign management, which makes it *worse* than if he’d just blurted them out in a brain snap.

    The fit of pique that came later just reinforces his inability to take responsibility for any offensive comment he makes, as I noted earlier.

  30. I have to be nice to the Greens now, since I’ve discovered that the Greens candidate in Warringah is a (distant) relative.

    Dees most impressive. I’m looking forward to next year, in more ways than one.

  31. GP,

    So it’s OK for Costello to claim that he was solely responsible for the budget surplus in 96 after being in the job for only 6 weeks, but it is not OK for Swan to take credit for the 08 budget surplus after making further savings 6 months before hand?

    Oh man, now that’s gold medal standard stuff HYPOCRISY!

  32. No 3587

    No there isn’t a clear allusion to rape. It’s a gaffe completely manufactured by a media that has been bored to tears with the election. When fake Julia says no, apparently it doesn’t mean no. It means, we’ll have more debates according to my poll numbers.

  33. GP

    Your comments have no value. Your Republican avatar represents a stain on the political landscape, much like everything you have been saying.

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