We learn via Channel Nine that Galaxy has conducted a poll of two marginal seats in New South Wales, Macarthur and Eden-Monaro, and two in Queensland, Bonner and Bowman. We are told only of a 2.8 per cent swing against Labor, which I’m guessing means a composite result of 51-49 in favour of the Coalition from the four seats in question, which collectively produced a Labor two-party vote of about 51.8 per cent in 2007. On the primary vote, Labor is said to be down six points to 39 per cent and the Coalition steady on 44 per cent. I await further elucidation. I also await Nielsen and Westpoll, which Possum advises us will be out later this evening.
UPDATE: Courtesy of the indispensible GhostWhoVotes, Nielsen has it at 51-49 in favour of the Coalition. More to follow.
[Has ‘God’ spoken?]
This Higgs-Boson particle told me that its hands are full right now, so it will not be involved in the campaign at all. It also said that the universal law of quantum physics says that it can’t endorse political candidates but it knows who it is voting for…
victoria
True, true. Bluey is on the red tonight.
What does this question mean anyway? It doesn’t tell us anything as we don’t know who they are actually intending on voting for. For example, if Turnbull was Liberal leader I would be more likely to vote Liberal, but I still wouldn’t.
Gloryconsequence
We will not lose Bonner. My contact in Queensland has never raised it once as being a seat he is concerned about. Yes, there are others, but Bonner is not one of them. My main concern would be Macarthur. If we are not doing well there then it might dampen our chances for Hughes. Either way, you can not discern a seat trend through polling 200 voters. This is not a poll to be worried about.
TSOP
One thing that puzzles me is where quantum physics starts and the other physics stops.
[Abbott is not a “religious nutter.” He’s a perfectly orthodox Catholic who follows the official line of his church on matters of faith and morals. His views on abortion, RU-whateveritwas, homosexuality, etc, are standard official Catholic views.]
The fact he follows those rules prescribed by his religion means he is a nutter.
[27% “more likely to vote ALP if Rudd was still leader”, whatever that means, probably counts as a shock]
Doesn’t that mean 73% didn’t answer more likley?
[Today is the anniversary of Hiroshima.]
Ah. Wasn’t thinking back quite that far.
[while Fox News was full of religious nutters.]
True enough, but isn’t that American politics in general, seriously, to watch their very interesting and fascinating political dramas you have to try and look past that.
[That no stimulus plan of NZ sure worked wonders.]
And?
NZ Prime minister & his chief economic advisor said that Tony Abbott was wrong in his description of their economy being OK. They both slammed Abbott for his economic nonsense citing that NZ aspires to the good economic management of Australia & their current government.
Joffaboy @ 148
You are a champion
[True enough, but isn’t that American politics in general, seriously, to watch their very interesting and fascinating political dramas you have to try and look past that.]
You seriously telling me you can look past, O’Reilly, Beck, Huckabee, and Coulter?
Bloody hell you must have terrific long sight 😉
I normally defend pollsters from the barbs of the PB Labortariat, but I can only agree that this one tells us far too little.
[TSOP
One thing that puzzles me is where quantum physics starts and the other physics stops.]
On the subatomic level. However, it is still a very unexplored science.
Joffa
And those ignorant, arrogant clowns on Fox & Friends.
Do the mathematics – if we were behind in all four seats the TPP is unlikely to be 49-51. This I repeat, is a joke poll.
Anyone who hasn’t visited Hiroshima should make every effort to do so. It is a life changing experience.
I wept.
dee @ 160,
think the comment was sarcastic as nz went into recession
I visited Nagasaki on Anzac Day last year.
Excuse the pun – but a very sobering experience (except for the drunken Karoake later that night).
[Bloody hell you must have terrific long sight]
I guess I do, but I’m not just talking about Fox News. I can’t wait for the November elections, almost as exciting as this one!
[Abbott is not a “religious nutter.” He’s a perfectly orthodox Catholic who follows the official line of his church on matters of faith and morals. His views on abortion, RU-whateveritwas, homosexuality, etc, are standard official Catholic views. The fact that the majority of Australian Catholics chose to ignore their church’s official positions on most issues doesn’t alter that.]
While I think the jury is still out on that — the fact that he is devout, means that he is unable to stifle his catholicism when it comes to moral issues, thus a large portion of the electorate is going to be discriminated against because of who they are (homosexuals/women/muslims ….etc) whenever a moral decision is required.
[Psephos @121, I regard anyone who follows the orthodox Catholic view, a religious nutter. Fortunately most Catholics aren’t that extreme.]
That’s a fair enough point of view. I was commenting on the notion that Abbott has some sort of extreme personal religious philosophy, like Mel Gibson, which is what the expression “religious nutter” usually means. As I say, the fact that most Australian Catholics ignore their church’s teaching on matters of personal morality doesn’t alter the fact that they are the official teachings of the world’s largest religious organisation.
[And those ignorant, arrogant clowns on Fox & Friends.]
I thought Glen Beck was the resident clown on Fox. The rest are just misery-guts, empty suits and life size barbie dolls.
Dee @ 160. If that’s what the NZ P.M. said, then the ALP should use it, because the MSM certainly won’t.
[Sad but those that care now have clear reason to vote Liberal. The Liberal party is being liberal. Who would have thought.]
Hockey said the Coalition would block the ALP’s filter but refuse to be drawn on or rule out their own version.
So this Galaxy poll was of only 200 in each seat? Is that why there aren’t any seat specific stats as the MOE would be too high to be useful??
TH
I wouldn’t weep. No bloody way.
My Dad was in a Japanese POW camp and it is highly likely that he is still alive, and that I was able to be procreated, as a result of Hiroshima.
[Joffa
And those ignorant, arrogant clowns on Fox & Friends.]
Oh my god that blonde shiela. What in hells name is she on?
Read the Man who owns the News – Murdoch absolutely loathes Fox News but it makes him money – thats all he cares about, oh and potting some Chinese gold digger 50 years younger than him.
Labor is way ahead in the crucial “Living Former PM” demographic, five LFPMs to one.
[Psephos
….
He’s a perfectly orthodox Catholic]
And how many “perfectly orthodox Catholic” do you think there
might be in Australia, considering a fair percentage of the clergy couldn’t be classified as such.
[The fact that the majority of Australian Catholics chose to ignore their church’s official positions].
And how would the majority define the utterance of Cardinal George Pell and Abbott, I’m not sure religious nutter would be a unused phrase.
Religious nutters tend to be orthodox something, the something really doesn’t matter that much.
TH
In fact, if you really want to weep, you might consider doing it for the one-in-three of his mates who were starved, neglected or bashed to death.
It is 65 years on and he still has nightmares about it.
Cud chewer @ 111
Yes. Intro said Julia “dodged” questions on BER. She did nothing of the sort. She held a wide-ranging press conference on the subject. A shocker.
[five LFPMs to one]
Fraser alive and other a rodent.
[Oh my god that blonde shiela. What in hells name is she on?]
Joffa
They’re ALL blonde on Fox.
Most Australian Catholics that I know think Abbott is… a religious nutter.
In fact, they think anyone who follows the teachings of the Church to a “t” are ALL religious nutters.
Also, Holt may still be alive, conceivably……..
If Labor are only going to lose “up to 12 seats” in New South Wales and Queensland, where are the other seats?
[It is all this talk about mary McKillop perhaps……]
Does Rupe know her?!!
He’d be 102 now.
Still Malcolm Fraser may be a former Liberal Prime Minister but he is no longer a Liberal former Prime Minister
Quantum phyics operates at all levels microscopic and macroscopic. However, the effects of quantum physics are negligable in all but the atomic/ sub atomic realm.
I agree. In fact, the priest that married my wife and me said that George Pell was an A-Grade c___
[Most Australian Catholics that I know think Abbott is… a religious nutter.[]
i dont think catholics of the 50s would of even liked him
Boerwar,
Give Bluey ared followed up with a dram of OP. Well done again.
I am just opening a bottle of Shiraz myself
Gee, I’ve tried hard not to comment on religious issues here after being put in my place very early, but I simply can’t help it. I mean I could vote for Julia alone on that issue, I’m a passionate atheist, however there’s so much more at stake, I need to believe that she will be her own boss and rule the roost if she wins. I’m mostly right wing but I think she has already displayed in a short time that she can adopt right wing issues if she needs to, will she continue to do that?
But I am sure that Tony’s religion will barely be able to assert itself in policy if he is elected, and that the national consciousness has moved on to a more secular level here than virtually any other country on earth.
In short I’m genuinely torn, I’m between a rock and a hard place. Honestly this is the only election where my mind wasn’t made up by now, it is a pain.
Mick S@191: Quantum phyics operates at all levels microscopic and macroscopic. However, the effects of quantum physics are negligable in all but the atomic/ sub atomic realm.
As far as we currently know.. as far as our current perceptions can detect..
Mithrandir #83..have a brother works in media in Auckland, he emailed the maori and pacific islanders make up the biggest percentage of unemployed in NZ…their dropout rate from school is very high.majority are blue collar workers (first to go) and they have a preference for jobs in the trucking, freezing works, shearing industries, fishing, farm labour type work.
On another thread received this email from Getup
From: GetUp [mailto:info@getup.org.au]
Sent: Friday, 6 August 2010 4:29 PM
To: David +++++++
Subject: Internet Censorship Victory!
Dear david,
We won!
Late last night the Coalition announced it won’t be voting for an internet filter that censors the web. This comes after the Government responded to our campaign by deferring the filter until 2012 (with the likelihood that the filter will never come back in its current form).
With independent Senator Nick Xenophon, the Greens and now the Coalition all walking away from the ineffective policy of censoring the internet, there is now no way for the Senate to pass this scheme.
This is your victory. Thank you!
Check out what we did together — and hear about the ongoing global fight here:
http://www.getup.org.au/campaign/SaveTheNet&id=1274
We’ve known all along that a system of internet censorship that missed the vast majority of unwanted content, would encourage the outsourcing of parenting and limit our online freedoms.
And we’ve been joined in these endeavours by our friends at Electronic Frontiers Australia and literally thousands of campaigners in a grassroots movement.
But firewalls, monitoring and governments blocking websites was never just an Australian problem. With our victory comes the realisation that social movements in Iran, China and Burma are still fighting for their political freedoms online. In fact, 30% of the world’s population live in regimes that block access to parts of the internet.
Responsibility falls on us, on this side of the firewall, to help our friends who are forced to live with censored internet and the axing of their political freedoms. That’s why, in partnership with our friends at global campaigning group Avaaz, we’ve gotten behind a worldwide anti-internet censorship movement — AccessNow. Access provides ways for you to provide your voice, your bandwidth and your resources to continue the global flight.
http://www.getup.org.au/campaign/SaveTheNet&id=1274
Today’s announcement is a real example of the power of an organised, mature, online movement. Indeed it was new technology and the power of online campaigning, which was itself at risk from internet filtering, that brought this campaign to the masses.
Thank you being a part of this movement,
the GetUp Team
P.S. It’s an historic day for our democracy, as the headlines from Canberra read: “GetUp! High Court win overturns Howard’s electoral laws.” More to come on this HUGE victory…
——————————————————————————–
With the election just around the corner, here at GetUp we’re sending more emails than usual at the moment. We know you can have too much of a good thing – so if you’d like to receive fewer emails from us over this busy time, click here and we will keep it to one every week or so.
Click here to let us know you want less email.
GetUp is an independent, not-for-profit community campaigning group. We use new technology to empower Australians to have their say on important national issues. We receive no political party or government funding, and every campaign we run is entirely supported by voluntary donations.
Authorised by Simon Sheikh, Level 5, 116 Kippax St, Surry Hills NSW 2010
[PB Labortariat, ]
Ah William, I love belonging to that mob.
[think the comment was sarcastic as nz went into recession]
I probably bit too easy but have heard this said on numerous occassions by dyed in the wool Libbers & am quite peeved & annoyed by its mere mention.
[Most Australian Catholics that I know think Abbott is… a religious nutter. In fact, they think anyone who follows the teachings of the Church to a “t” are ALL religious nutters.]
Then they should have the integrity to stop calling themselves Catholics.