We learn via Channel Nine that Galaxy has conducted a poll of two marginal seats in New South Wales, Macarthur and Eden-Monaro, and two in Queensland, Bonner and Bowman. We are told only of a 2.8 per cent swing against Labor, which I’m guessing means a composite result of 51-49 in favour of the Coalition from the four seats in question, which collectively produced a Labor two-party vote of about 51.8 per cent in 2007. On the primary vote, Labor is said to be down six points to 39 per cent and the Coalition steady on 44 per cent. I await further elucidation. I also await Nielsen and Westpoll, which Possum advises us will be out later this evening.
UPDATE: Courtesy of the indispensible GhostWhoVotes, Nielsen has it at 51-49 in favour of the Coalition. More to follow.
Barnaby Joyce would put his house on The Nationals being returned with more seats in the next Parliament. One would’ve thought this wouldn’t be too risky a bet given their historically low count right now.
[Quantum phyics operates at all levels microscopic and macroscopic. However, the effects of quantum physics are negligable in all but the atomic/ sub atomic realm.]
Correct. I was just simplifying it.
[TSOP
One thing that puzzles me is where quantum physics starts and the other physics stops.]
The is a chance a coke can atom will go insane and end up somewhere else, the chance of them all doing so at the same time is pretty close to zero, but it’s is possible, your coke can may disappear it is just very unlikely.
[In fact, they think anyone who follows the teachings of the Church to a “t” are ALL religious nutters.]
Gee not my experience at all, maybe I don’t know enough people.
But I am sure that Tony’s religion will barely be able to assert itself in policy if he is elected, and that the national consciousness has moved on to a more secular level here than virtually any other country on earth.
uh, i suspect that if tony is elected to office he WILL interpret it as a manifestation of god’s will to express his religion…
pYes. Intro said Julia “dodged” questions on BER. She did nothing of the sort. She held a wide-ranging press conference on the subject. A shocker.[
Who gave the report on ABC News? I watched that whole presser and she didn’t dodge one question. She was fired up and answered everything.
[Still Malcolm Fraser may be a former Liberal Prime Minister but he is no longer a Liberal former Prime Minister]
I would say he is very much a Liberal PM, both small and large.
Rodent was a conservative, Abbott is a Tea bagger.
Perahelion. Vote Labor. 😉 Remember, Gillard stove up to the AEU. Conservatives were all loving her before she became leader.
[Psephos
Posted Friday, August 6, 2010 at 7:37 pm | Permalink
…..
Then they should have the integrity to stop calling themselves Catholics.]
And so says Psephos, I think they can do whatever they dam well please and they don’t need your or the popes permission to do so.
[If Labor are only going to lose “up to 12 seats” in New South Wales and Queensland, where are the other seats?]
Herbert will be the only other seat in doubt in Queensland on these figures.
Further on my post 204, the few strong Catholics I do know mostly criticize the celibate priest situation. In my opinion the first Pope that allows priests to marry will be incredibly popular.
Stove = stood. Stupid autocorrect
how else could he interpret his elevation to high-office?
In my experience, the people I have heard shout the loudest that Abbott is a religious nutter are other catholics. Could it be they want to differentiate themselves from him, whereas non-catholics just see him as a typical conservative catholic?
I meant, Joffaboy, that Malcolm Fraser has quit the Liberal party, so while he is a former Liberal PM he is not, technically speaking, a Liberal former PM.
The only issue left in the election is can Abbott get to election day on his policy platform. He will have to announce everything on Sunday surely?
That leaves two weeks for him to hold pressers where he has very little to say. Will the press pack get the shits with him? Will the opinion leaders question him?
I reckon he will be like a marathon runner who runs out of puff entering the stadium.
If The Piping Shrike is still about, why do you think switching to Julia G is a negative for Labor, if I’m interpreting your comments correctly?
p.s. do hope the commas are where they should be and that I’ve not committed any apostrophe atrocity.
Perahelion, I’m a passionate atheist too, and I’d love to think Julia would be a good thing in that regard, but it was really seriously disappointing to see her today fudge her way through justifying the filter. Every other question she answered in a sensible matter of fact way. When it came to the filter she dodged and pointed at Conroy and worse pushing the kiddie porn lie again. The ACL must have some serious power if they can push her around knowing that she also stands to lose tens of thousands of votes over the filter.
Having said this, there’s one guy you can guarantee will inject his personal morality into public policy if he gets given the chance. This time it won’t be RU486, it will probably be something obnoxious to gay people.
Brideshead Revisited offers a pretty good summary of the particular nuttiness of the Catholic Church (notwithstanding Charles Ryder’s eventual disposition..).
@ltep/201, not to mention that nationals leader is abit of an unknown, and with that they are unlikely to get more votes than the norm lol.
kinda funny how the nats promising alot.
Could you imagine what Abbott would impose on our society given his cuckoo catholic beliefs if he was given a free reign to do so?
Any person who follows the strict orthodox teachings of their religion is a wacko nut case! Thank goodness that comprises only a pretty small percentage of people.
ITEP
We are vulnerable in Solomon, Hasluck and maybe Bass.
However, I reckon we will hold Bass and I don’t think we will lose 12 in NSW/Qld – more likely 10 at most. Add Hasluck and Solomon that gives you 12. I think we will win two back in Victoria and this gives you a net notional loss of 10, leaving 78, 69, 3. I would take that tomorrow. This is what David Speers and Malcolm Mackerass are also predicting based on the current mood.
TSOP@214
Spot on!
Perahelion
[But I am sure that Tony’s religion will barely be able to assert itself in policy if he is elected, and that the national consciousness has moved on to a more secular level here than virtually any other country on earth.]
They will be able to assert themselves because a) he won’t be able to help himself and b) he is not the only member of the religious right in the Lib party.
You have idiots like Bernardi and though won’t be around too long, Minchin. These people are driven by their beliefs. I get the impression they think it is their ‘mission’ to save this country on moral grounds. I find this scary.
I’m an agnostic, I suppose, and I really fear it when religion has a strong hold on our govt. I know the KKK and such are extremists, but when people disguise themselves in a supposedly mainstream party, and then gain personal ascendancy, it makes for very dangerous times.
Paddy
There are many paths to happiness.
[I meant, Joffaboy, that Malcolm Fraser has quit the Liberal party, so while he is a former Liberal PM he is not, technically speaking, a Liberal former PM.]
Oh i see. Friday night is the only night I am allowed to drink 😉
[Anyone who hasn’t visited Hiroshima should make every effort to do so. It is a life changing experience.
I wept.]
Were your tears for those 250,000 raped and murdered in Nanking or for the Australian and American prisoners of war treated like animals and something beyond sub human. Really, now I have a couple of Japanese friends, ex exchange students, now living in Brisbane, they still won’t admit what went on, they have been brainwashed down the decades, it’s beyond amazing.
At the moment betfair and centrebet both have macarthur slight favs (1.84/2.0, 1.82/1.88) and eden monaro firm favs (1.41/2.6, 1.36/2.95). That’s at approx 7.20pm. Macarthur was outsider this morning but has firmed for alp in recent hours. Alp is solid at 1.56/2.42, 1.56/2.74 respectively with those 2 bookies. McEwen, incidentally, is very solid fav to go to alp with the bookies.
A lecture from Psephos on Integrity sounds like it could be fun. As in, a real hoot.
[And so says Psephos, I think they can do whatever they dam well please and they don’t need your or the popes permission to do so.]
Well, yes, they do. Acceptance of the authority of the Church (headed by the Pope) to teach on matters of faith and morals, and to command obedience, is the central defining doctrine of Catholicism. If you don’t accept that, you’re a protestant.
I heard Malcolm Mackerass in the wee hours this AM, he reckons Labor will get 80 seats.
Bad Omen. 😆
Catholicism is a broad church.
Abbott sits fairly squarely in the conservative wing. Right and wrong are God-given via Peter the Rock who is infallible.
No relativism. No uncertainty. You are right or you are wrong; saint or sinner. Take your pick.
To clarify, those figures are both saying alp is fav to win those 2 nsw marginals.
I would have thought the NBN rollout in Tassie might have had some positive effect. Or is it a case of “We’ll take our NBN, thanks very much, and and then vote you out of office”?
[Stove = stood. Stupid autocorrect]
Never mind Itep, I get your point, and that’s what I would be hoping for.
[SHOCK ANNOUNCEMENT – DENNIS SHANAHAN PROVIDES BALANCED VIEW!!!!!
I never thought I would live to hear this. Go to the OO webite and listen to his and Patricia K’s take of the week. Complementary to Julia and thinks Labor will still win. Says Abbott’s starting to have some problems of his own.
Wow, miracles can happen afterall]
I’m just checking my calender. It’s not April the first is it?
116
Steve
I am in Herbert and was polled last week and, along with lots of other questions, i was specifically asked whether i was voting for Tony Mooney or the trog.
The guy told me the information they were gathering would be collated over the next two weeks so i am picking late next week there will be something about Herbert.
It will be two week old data though.
In the Know @222,
Could you be kind enough to spell that out seat by seat and a bit of reasoning in each case? The intricacies of seat by seat predictions are not my strong point I’d love some insight.
Herbert is currently held by a retiring Tory so outside of Bonner being a rough outside chance for the Tories it seems most of the swing to the Tories will be in the seats that they already hold. I can see now where the shock, horror might be.
Centre
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/be-like-the-kiwis-says-abbott–but-they-cant-fly-20100211-nv6k.html
[I heard Malcolm Mackerass in the wee hours this AM, he reckons Labor will get 80 seats.]
Great. Expect no more than 60! 🙁
[Could you imagine what Abbott would impose on our society given his cuckoo catholic beliefs if he was given a free reign to do so?
Any person who follows the strict orthodox teachings of their religion is a wacko nut case! Thank goodness that comprises only a pretty small percentage of people.]
Yes but they do provide a good level of education at their schools.
As I am want to tell people. My wife and I pray to the patron Saint of Hypocricy. We got our two girls, then 5 and 3 christened catholic on a Saturday, and enrolled them ion a catholic primary school on the Monday.
I am Anglican, and a complete non-believer, my wife is a lapsed catholic, my kids dont like the religion at all, however i dont push my opinion on to them, basically because i like the ethos of the Josephite school our girls attend. Basically it is about community involvement.
Most of the devouts i know from the school were so happy when Pell moved to NSW.
dedalus
what is Bennelong please?
[Perahelion, I’m a passionate atheist too, and I’d love to think Julia would be a good thing in that regard, but it was really seriously disappointing to see her today fudge her way through justifying the filter. Every other question she answered in a sensible matter of fact way. When it came to the filter she dodged and pointed at Conroy and worse pushing the kiddie porn lie again. The ACL must have some serious power if they can push her around knowing that she also stands to lose tens of thousands of votes over the filter.]
Yes, a worry.
[TH
In fact, if you really want to weep, you might consider doing it for the one-in-three of his mates who were starved, neglected or bashed to death.
It is 65 years on and he still has nightmares about it.]
I can’t apologise for the actions of Japanese soldiers and I wouldn’t even think for a moment that I could or should.
i tell every one i can to think very hard about him i can tell u.
but you may have missed this before we need you lot in nsw and qld to get out and about with actu sticker and pamphlets i had 6 stickers and 20 pamphlets had to go to the actu and get more.
i think young people do not want to talk politics labor lib etc but are quite happy to talk about their work.
so this is what i did and if you do not live in qld please think about and nsw or every where.
I did not need petrol but i got some any way, i gritted my teeth and ask the young attendant ( we still have them here) ” would you like an actu sticker for your car and some phamphlets would your boss mind if i left some here” no that ok lady i will take a couple.
the next to me this big van pulled up i yelled out ah you guys ect, yep love to lady we dont want that……… it turned out they where workers from NSW going to catch the boat they had been working on our rail so the sticker would go to nsw on the van.
so then i spired some boys working on the New Mcdonalds ist ” ah you boys and did my thing again ” i suddenly realised had not stickers…Raced in to the city and got some more. then i saw a lady with a greens sticker on her car out side the library
” excuse me if you are a greens voter would like some anti work choices stuff” o yes please and so on and so the lady in the library got a shock i picked up my book and ask perfect stranger how to put my book ( race of a life time) through the computer screen of course i new how to do it ‘I said I saw Julia gillard reading this book so i thought i would borrow it, o she said dont know what camp she in but cannot win em all
so off backsides if you live in marginals and some work for the actu it the same as labor the votes of course go where we want them to go.
i also added and if you have friends in Nsw and qld make sure you email them or do a face book thing.
one lady told me to look up a site on face book which starts with reasons not to vore for abbot she tells me the list is getting long with ideas.
so thats i not hard bit tired now and OH is crabby with me so i had better go
all i did was have them posted to me and now i realise of course i can get them here.
O and the girls at the suppermarket got the ” i am NOT voting for abbott because i do not want you to have workchoices.” one nice young girls said o thank you you so kind. can you imagine that
any way
Fraser told ABC radio the Rabbott led Coalition are not ready to govern.
Does anyone have any opinion on the impact of John Howard becoming actively involved in this election?
[SHOCK ANNOUNCEMENT – DENNIS SHANAHAN PROVIDES BALANCED VIEW!!!!!
I never thought I would live to hear this. Go to the OO webite and listen to his and Patricia K’s take of the week. Complementary to Julia and thinks Labor will still win. Says Abbott’s starting to have some problems of his own.
Wow, miracles can happen afterall]
He looked and sounded pissed. Done at the HWT office on a Friday arvo after a long lunch by the sound of him 😉
To all those who tried to clarify the boundary between quantum and that other physics for me, thank you for trying. Was ignorant; am still ignorant. I just hope it all hangs together.
jenauthor @222, I’d recommend everyone here read The High Price of Heaven for a thorough understanding of how the Church tries to manipulate the State in this country and a deep insight into the Christian mindset that wants to “save our soul” and believes strongly in pushing its morals onto those who don’t share that particular belief system.
Like you said, Abbott cannot control himself. When you’re brought up like that you’re taught to push your ideas onto others because its good for them.