Westpoll: 52-48 to Coalition in WA

In addition to the two polls discussed in the previous post (more on those as details come to hand), we now have a Westpoll survey from the normal regrettably small sample of 400 Western Australian respondents. This has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 52-48, compared with 53.3-46.7 per cent in 2007. The Coalition primary vote is 48 per cent (47.4 per cent in 2007) to Labor’s 35 per cent (36.8 per cent) and 14 per cent for the Greens (8.9 per cent). Further questions suggest Tony Abbott’s Catholicism is slightly more damaging electorally than Julia Gillard’s atheism, and there is a 54-33 split in favour of Kevin Rudd returning to cabinet, a relatively narrow result reflecting his unpopularity in Western Australia. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full set of Westpoll results here. The Coalition has a 15-point lead on the economy and a 28-point lead on asylum seekers, while Labor has leads of eight to 13 points on health, industrial relations, education and environment.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

217 comments on “Westpoll: 52-48 to Coalition in WA”

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  1. Tony is getting ‘behind’ with his ABC appearances.

    Julia fronted up for her second Red Kerry interview. Abbott hasn’t been seen.

    If she does Q&A and Abbott doesn’t … then he is the slimy coward I’ve always known him to be. If he is on on the last week of the election, and he isn’t grilled as he should be, he could come out of it smelling sweet. Something none of us want. (I’d be tempted to apply for the audience so I can agitate.)

  4. with polls left, right and centre some people seem to be forgetting that a 51/49 poll lib-np way is probably closer to 53/47 lib-np way factoring in that people don’t like to tell pollsters they are voting liberal and polls traditionally underestimate the actual final lib-np vote by 2-3%

    hell … the nielsen poll last election underestimated the lib-np vote by 5% on the actual result

  6. There are plenty of donkeys in the NT. Lived there for years.

    Does Mr Bowe (or Antony Green) have any stats on the proportion of donkey votes in different electorates?

    Serious question. Genuinely interested.

  7. [hell … the nielsen poll last election underestimated the lib-np vote by 5% on the actual result]

    Well on that unhappy note I am going to retire — am prepared for nightmares now — thanks a heap!

  8. If Abbot doesn’t show on Q&A he will send Andrew Robb along. Abbott won’t be there because he doesn’t like to lose to a woman. He won’t debate a gay either as we heard courtesy the 1979 tape.

  12. [Does Mr Bowe (or Antony Green) have any stats on the proportion of donkey votes in different electorates?]

    Not me. The donkey vote seems to be worth a bit under 1 per cent, which is presumably lower in better educated electorates and higher in poorer ones.

  13. and polymorphs (sorry for dropping the s)

    I think lab will lose

    roberstson,maybe melb

    gains
    herbert qld
    canning WA

    plus at least 6 other fibs seats

    the real joker is how far wa sa vic qld swing inter alia individual as opposed to statewide swings

    strange days indeed

  17. Donkey vote mightily overrated, at least since party labels appeared on ballots.

    At least look at seats where say the ‘Natural Law Party’ used to head the ballot: they’d get a fraction of one per cent. If nothing else, so called ‘donkeys’, perhaps like the rest of us, plump for the brand they least dislike and work there way out from that.

  18. i think that no seats will change hands in SA…In Vic only McEwen will go to ALP…In WA status quo….one gain one loss….IN NSW a net loss of 3 seats and in Qld….who knows….I’m from SA and dont readily understand the Qld mindset…..lol

  19. The donkey vote seems to be worth a bit under 1 per cent, which is presumably lower in better educated electorates and higher in poorer ones.

    Thanks.

    Pretty sure Solomon has an above average income. Not sure about education levels. OTOH, being the incumbent Hale is already nominally ahead (0.4% TTP in 2007), so if it is that close again then he won’t need much extra to hold on. Half a percent or so from the donkey vote might just do it.

    Nice theory. The empirical test will be interesting.

  21. I know it’s just shorthand, but ‘the bookies’ don’t rate anything, their books just reflect moneys outlaid. And they are still skewed towards Labor to the extent that for many moons Labor led in the polls.

    The punters follow polling data. God knows how much is held back to be wagered in the final weeks as the polling volatility settles down. At least the polls are democratic…

  23. Never worry about dropping the ‘s’ – if that is the worst thing that happens to me it has been a pretty good day for once.

    Robertson will be interesting – i had it in the loss column for a while, but what I am hearing is that the coalition candidate is not setting the world on fire even given what happened with the previous one.

    Melb isn’t a loss – worse case scenario it goes to the greens. And while painful they aren’t about to form a minority gov with the coalition or anything.

    Herbert is interesting, and just needs some firming over the next couple of weeks to be a real possibility.

    MacQuarie is not looking like fun – which is a real shame as the local candidate actually is a local candidate for once. And as a real pain a lot of the voting stations aren’t in the new school halls – it’s the little things in tight contests.

    Lindsey is not an issue – we have people driving right passed it to go to MacQuarie instead.

    On the upside in what could be mild surprises we have added Stirling (WA) and Fairfax (Qld) to seats on the radar.

    It will be an interesting couple of weeks

  24. [I think Labor will pick up 5 or 6 seats nationally. It’s just obviously a matter of how many they lose in QLD and NSW]

    gloryconsequence – if Labor picks up 5 seats elswhere then the Libs would need to win 21 seats across NSW and Qld to have a majority and I can’t see them doing that.

    But where do you see labor winning that many?. It’s a big call..

  26. Frank

    While I admire your optimism, a 48-52 poll followed by a 49-51 poll is not something to get pleased about. Labor’s primary vote is 36% which is back in Rudd territory.

    Anything could happen from here.

  28. [Not me. The donkey vote seems to be worth a bit under 1 per cent, which is presumably lower in better educated electorates and higher in poorer ones.]

    I have read a few papers over the years on this and since 1984 at Federal Elections when party names appeared on ballot papers, IMHO and from the research I have read the DV is decreasing and at state and Federal government elections it is probably on average .6% at the moment. Local Government elections in NSW I am told by locals they estimate it to be 2-3% and in SA 1% (non-compulsory voting).

    I tend to agree with William’s assessment that in the ‘more educated’ electorates the DV is lower and is higher in electorates with less educated and more NESB voters. I am rather tired so won’t do the checking now but I recall one Federal or state electorate in Adelaide’s western suburbs where the top of the ballot Socialist/Communist scored 2% of the vote or thereabouts and about half of his preferences went to the next placed Liberal candidate, which it is fair to say was not the expected preference flow!

  29. [While I admire your optimism, a 48-52 poll followed by a 49-51 poll is not something to get pleased about.]

    It’s better than nothing.

  30. it might be like the last SA poll….the swings mainly in safe ALP and Lib seats, but the marginals holding for labor….fingers crossed anyway

  31. [they need to spend more time contemplating Tony Abbott as PM so why not a softly, softly strategy to unnerve him.]

    Strongly disagree with any proposal to go “softly softly” at this stage. Tony will need smoking out of his hole with a flamethrower.

    Jenauthor, had to have a laugh at your posts. I think my OH is feeling much as you are and my optimism is really pi$$ing her off at times. Not to get cocky, the election WILL be close, but in terms of the way the ALP campaign is going i think its well on track at the moment. I honestly think that the polls this week wont be particularly good for the ALP, but i also think it may have well and truly bottomed out and be about to rebound. Not to 55/45, but enough.

    I think there is a bit of a change in tone coming through in the media as they find it harder to ingore the positive aspects of the ALP’s campaigning, and the questions surrounding Tony Abbotts fitness to be PM. That to me has always been the bugbear and it seems that the campaign has changed with Julia G openly rejecting the “risk averse” campaign model that is so important to Abbott.

    She’s talked the talk, and now, particlarly with a QANDA appearence on monday is definitivley walking the walk.

    The media want a circus (for ratings) and Julia is, to some extent, giving them what they want. Tony is not. If he hasnt got the media on his side he is stuffed. He aint got nuthin else.

  33. [it might be like the last SA poll….the swings mainly in safe ALP and Lib seats, but the marginals holding for labor….fingers crossed anyway]

    I hope so.

    To be honest, regardless of my efforts, I will take Pyne being re-elected and Gillard returned than the other way around any day of the week.

  35. [It’s better than nothing.]

    I’d argue that it’s worse than nothing. It makes it more likely Labor is really behind. It’s only better than nothing if you are accepting that the 48-52 was real and Labor is “moving forward”. I never thought I’d see the day on PB when Laborites are cheering on a 49-51 Nielsen.

  37. [I never thought I’d see the day on PB when Laborites are cheering on a 49-51 Nielsen.]

    Last week, it was 48-52. That’s a movement upwards.

    It just means we await the Newspoll.

    (FYI, Nielsen is the only poll suggesting we’re in the negative)

  38. By the way, i’d assume that on Monday night QANDA it will just be Julia G (no panel).

    Thats been the format before when Rudd went on anyway.

    Also, i dont think the Fibs would dare put anyone OTHER than Abbott on if it was a panel discussion. If any Lib other than him was on with Julia G it would just highlight his cowardice which would become THE reported issue the next day.

    If he does go on, then we effectivley have the debate he refused, although it wouldnt be a debate on the economy. Boats and Batts would be a feature as well.

  39. [Re Julia Gillard on Q&A, I don’t think that trying to splash her everywhere]
    Don’t forget qanda regularly rates near the top of the World Top Trending Tweets list on Twitter each week. I am a qanda+twitter tragic. I watch, read and tweet right throughout the show. The time difference with the USA might mean less tweets from there, but a hell of a lot of Aussies are watching qanda and tweeting for it to be one of the hottest topics.

    BTW When it trends, sometimes people from overseas are perplexed and ask “what is a qanda? I sometimes reply along the lines of, “A weekly Australian rite where we strip naked & chase drunk koalas thru the streets.”

    I wonder if many believe me?

  40. To Speak of Pebbles@187

    I never thought I’d see the day on PB when Laborites are cheering on a 49-51 Nielsen.

    Last week, it was 48-52. That’s a movement upwards.

    It just means we await the Newspoll.

    (FYI, Nielsen is the only poll suggesting we’re in the negative)

    Exactly and I’d rather look to the light on the hill than in the bowels of despair.

    And Laborites – use this song as your clarion call:

     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9a83d6_rT50 

  42. Bet Labor ‘hard heads’ are wishing they could have Rudd as PM until he won the election and then re-install JGillard. lol

  43. [If you went from 40-60 to 41-59 that would also be a movement upwards; but it still wouldn’t be good.]

    You’re using a reductio ad adsurdum and you know it. Nevertheless, I know we’re not in a crash hot position, but I would take bad moving upwards than bad getting worse any day of the week.

  44. Imacca – sorry we don’t have canning on our radar at all. Now don’t take that to mean anything but we only look at seats where we have a enough density of membership to make a difference. There is no use us talking to x number of members if x isn’t enough to make much of a difference – it’s why we have people in the ACT talking to people in solomon, we have enough members in solomon to make a difference.

    My sphere of knowledge is limited in that while i know a number of candidates, and senior staffers well enough to have their phone numbers in my mobile, or to call up and have a coffee with – I certainly don’t get to see any internal polling or battle plans. Hell most local candidates don’t get to see any polling, they just get regular pep talks. The only polls i get to see are the ones we do in house, and while they are big as far as sample size goes – 2-3000 over the course of the last few weeks – the audience is no where near a representative sample

    But I may have a better idea in the last week when we talk about where people will be deployed on the day. That will be a sure indicator of what the internals are showing – and i really hope canning is on that list

  45. [BTW When it trends, sometimes people from overseas are perplexed and ask “what is a qanda? I sometimes reply along the lines of, “A weekly Australian rite where we strip naked & chase drunk koalas thru the streets.”

    I wonder if many believe me?]

    But isnt that we are supposed to do after Qanda?

  47. The JGillard effect has been less than zero, it has been negative. Rudd was 52/48 and on an up swing. Gillard for a number of reasons has tanked Labor support levels.

    Contrary to some opinions Abbott’s appearance with Howard is a definite plus for him. Most of the electorate are OK with Howard. It is only genuine Labor supporters who really despise him. Abbott had that uncertain air about him and appearing with an old hand like Howard reminds that Abbott was part of that team for a long while. This will settle some nervousness about Abbott with voters.

    Rudd’s resurgence will be an initial positive as he much more capable at electioneering and policy development than Gillard. But I think people will have time to reflect on Rudd and Gillard and see that she is below standard, needing help. In the end it may cost her as it highlights her deficiencies.

    I am now expecting Labor’s figures to get a little worse than 49/51 by election day. It then depends on how much if any incumbency benefit she gets.

  48. I think that it a bit of a cheek for some people on this site to conduct there long and tedious debate on WW2.the holocaust/the atom bomb on this site dedicated to the polls and the election.
    William makes it available to us all…and he would be justified in giving those people who have done this a red card
    ..oh and one who said the Japanese entered the Pacific in 1942 over the attack on Pearl Harbour are dead wrong…The attack on Pearl Harbour was Dec. 7 1941,
    I know…because
    I’m old enough to remember the reactions of my family when I came home from school on that terrible Monday afternoon (Yes..it was Sunday in Hawaii!)
    Now go away !

  49. Pebbles

    Let’s see whether the betting markets go up or down for Labor after this. I’m guessing they go down. In fact, they already are.

  50. yes…refugee boats…an issue it seems for the top end more than most according to my NT friend

    Not convinced. Hasn’t been featured in the local news, and we have been getting boat people turning up and settling successfully here since at least the late 70s. Nothing new. We have seen the benefits of refugee immigrants over a long time. A significant number of local residents were boat people, especially Vietnamese and Cambodian, who are very well settled and now producing their 3rd generation. Be a very brave politician up here who tried to make political hay from that class of citizens.

    Might point out that One Nation never gained a real foothold here, and never looked like winning a seat in parliament, which might surprise some.

    Nah, I just don’t see that issue playing a significant role.

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