Crikey reports today’s Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead down to 52-48 from 54-46 last week. Essential polls are a rolling two-week average, so it makes sense that they should have trailed the pack in recording Labor’s mid-campaign slump. The Coalition is up three on the primary vote to 42 per cent and Labor up one to 41 per cent, both taking up slack from a three-point decline for the Greens, down to 10 per cent. More to follow.
UPDATE: Full report here. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 45 per cent and up two on disapproval to 40 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 40 per cent and down three on disapproval to 45 per cent. On preferred prime minister, the gap has narrowed from 48-30 to 45-33. Thirty-eight per cent say their opinion of Gillard has gone down since the election was called against 18 per cent who say it has gone up; more surprisingly, the respective figures for Tony Abbott are 9 per cent and 42 per cent. There are also questions on which party is best to handle various issues.
General:
• Michael Kroger has written an article for The Australian on prospects for the election which becomes doubly interesting if you read between some lines. Throughout the article he operates off post-redistribution seat status, giving Labor 88 rather than 83 seats, before concluding that “Labor would do well to keep its net losses to under 10 seats”. While this may have been framed negatively for Labor, the suggestion seems to be that he expects them to narrowly win. Kroger sounds especially confident about Sturt and Solomon, though by omission the former suggests he may expect trouble in Boothby. The Coalition is also rated likely to win a “swag” of seats in Queensland and up to five in New South Wales, along with Hasluck and Swan in Western Australia.
• On the Channel Ten news last night, Paul Bongiorno said a Liberal insider had offered him the implausible claim that their polling showed “Labor would be lucky to hold on to one seat” in Queensland. More believably, Geoff Kitney of the Financial Review offered that both sides’ polling showed “the Coalition is in front in every marginal seat in the state”, with Labor “battling to prevent the loss of all its Queensland seats with a margin of up to 4.2 per cent”, namely Herbert, Dickson, Longman, Flynn, Dawson, Forde, Brisbane, Leichhardt and Petrie. Mark Ludlow of the Financial Review says seats likely to be targeted by Kevin Rudd are in fact slightly beyond this range: Bonner (4.5 per cent) and Moreton (6.2 per cent).
• Tom Dusevic of The Australian comments on the Coalition’s latent fear of Labor’s marginal seat sandbagging abilities, which succeeded beyond the bounds of what appeared possible in the South Australian election in March. Significantly, Tony Abbott felt compelled to declare during his campaign launch that “to change this government you have to throw out your Labor MP”.
• Former Labor Senator Stephen Loosley writes in The Australian that “Labor is seeking to hold government without necessarily achieving the accepted prerequisite for winning”, namely that “every federal Labor government from Chris Watson to Paul Keating has been based on carrying NSW”.
• The Canberra Times reports a survey conducted for the Greens credited to YourSource (the panel used by Essential Research) has the Senate vote in the Australian Capital Territory at 36 per cent for Labor (down 5 per cent on the election), 30 per cent for the Coalition (down 4 per cent) and 26 per cent for the Greens (up 4.5 per cent). If accurate, the Greens would probably just fall short of taking the second seat from Liberal Senator Gary Humphries.
Local:
Leichhardt (Labor 4.1%): Tony Abbott was in northern Queensland last Monday, where he promised $62 million would be spent on the tourism industry. The choice of Cairns as the scene for the announcement was highly significant, as unemployment has rise to near double-digit levels there due to a downturn in tourism.
Herbert (notional Labor 0.4%): Abbott’s northern Queensland sojourn also included a stop at Townsville, where he promised $21 million flood-proof Blakeys Crossing. Tony Raggatt of the Townsville Bulletin found this “strange”, as apparently any local can tell you that flooding on the lower Bohle Bridge of Bruce Highway is a greater concern. On Thursday, Julia Gillard was in town promising “up to” $160 million for a section of a ring road linking the Douglas Arterial to the Bruce Highway at Mt Low.
La Trobe (Liberal 0.5%): Labor has promised $55 million to widen a dangerous stretch of Clyde Road, which the Liberals have trumped with an $85 million promise of a railway underpass. Sushi Das of The Age surveys the electoral terrain:
Labor’s strength around the mountain area has been countered by increasing Liberal dominance in the south of the electorate, where new housing estates have emerged. Narre Warren North and Pakenham form the heart of these newly developed areas attracting trades people, small business owners and young families who have been forced further out in their hunt for affordable housing. More housing developments are planned for nearby Officer over the next few years, making the south of the electorate one of the fastest growing corridors in Victoria. Indeed, an average of five families a day are moving into the area, according to the Cardinia Shire Council. The developments have provided local employment alongside jobs provided by more established light industries and firms producing car accessories.
[Except that Essential is usually higher for Labor than the other polls, so it’s more like 50-50. I’d like to know why the 2PP isn’t higher with 41% PV.]
Because the Greens vote is only 10%?
52-48 from Essential???
What happened to the usual 55-45 results for Labor?
When if ever have Essential had the ALP ahead 52-48?
Its essentially following the same trend. Next week, if there’s an Essential, it will be back to 54-46.
Election will be 52-48.
And for all the fear of mass ALP haemmorhage in Queensland, interesting how poorly Abbott polls there as PPM.
[When if ever have Essential had the ALP ahead 52-48?]
I’m pretty sure earlier in the year under Rudd.
The preference flow for this poll would be about what it was at the last election, more or less.
I just love how, even though Newspoll and Galaxy were only out this morning saying more or less the same thing, that people say “Oh essential polls overstates the Labor vote relative to the other polls”
I mean, really, what will it take to convince you people?
Glen,
It’s the two week averaging that takes in the ALP’s worst week.
Essentially, everybody is heading towards 52-48. An ALP victory with the marginal seat campaign to determine the actual ALP majority.
With each passing day, I am getting more confident. I will still stick to my initial prediction of Labor winning with 80 seats.
[interesting how poorly Abbott polls there as PPM.]
I thought Morgan had him far in front in Queensland?
So we have a convergence of 3/5 major polls showing 52-48 to Labor. Let’s see what the next Morgan and Nielsen show.
Labor seems to be getting back on message. Swan hammering Hockey on the economy, Gillard pushing education, they are actually talking about policy details which is refreshing given the last 2 weeks of nothing from both sides.
If they avoid any stuff ups for the next 2 weeks they may pull through.
Ohhh i see BB.
Yes I still stand by my prediction of a Gillard majority between 5-8 seats.
[I mean, really, what will it take to convince you people?]
An election on the 21st of August should do it 😉
And thats how PMs are determined in Australia – by the preferred PM stat in QLD as per Morgan Research.
The Costello ad and his response, increasing commentary on costings, debate on education,low-key Rudd, focus on economic issues, ramped up negative advertising, and ALP “launch” ahead all point to the camapign message being run on the ALP insiders preferred ground.
leftwingpinko, I was responding to a specific claim by someone relating to PPM in Queensland. Have we seen any other polling organisations with PPM breakdown per state?
[The preference flow for this poll would be about what it was at the last election, more or less.]
If the Greens vote is higher this time I’d expected a higher preference flow to Labor than in 2007. (I’m assuming that a higher Greens PV is mostly at the expense of Labor.)
[Because the Greens vote is only 10%?]
There’s still a mismatch with the 2007 election: Labor 43% PV, 52.7% 2PP, and Greens less than 8% PV.
I actually reckon the chances of a big ALP win exceed the chances of Abbott being PM now.
The launch was a dud. It really was a continuation of the dummy spit about losing in 2007. Sure Abbott looked ‘Prime Ministerial’ but is anybody still talking about it?
The ALP launch will be positive – I can’t see how they can’t trump the Liberal one with a bit of positivity and direction.
Treasury costings are going to hurt Abbott badly – whether he submits the policies or not.
Barring any substantial leaks or similar, I cannot see how the last week will not be Gillards.
This week looks fine (ealry yet!) for the ALP.
That will be 4 weeks to 1 in the ALP’s favour.
Currently, I don’t think it wil be close at all.
[Throughout the article he operates off post-redistribution seat status, giving Labor 88 rather than 83 seats, before concluding that “Labor would do well to keep its net losses to under 10 seats”. While this may have been framed negatively for Labor, the suggestion seems to be he expects them to narrowly win.]
William are you saying Kroger expects Labor to narrowly win or is the ‘them’ part the Coalition winning?
If Labor really is doing that badly in Qld and NSW, and yet has a national 2PV of 52%, then we must be heading for a killer result in Vic and SA.
[Treasury costings are going to hurt Abbott badly – whether he submits the policies or not.]
Like they did for Rudd last time???
Hardly.
leftwingpinko
[I mean, really, what will it take to convince you people?]
…because an Abbott win is so awful to contemplate that overconfidence seems to be tempting the gods.
I wonder if the 3 percent drop in the Greens vote is the reason Bob Brown has been getting stuck into Abbott about his “slash list”? Maybe a lot of Greens have realised how cosy Brown has been with Abbott to date?
Adam
A nation divided against itself cannot stand 😀 lol!
WA, NT, QLD and Half of NSW (The North) = Coalition
VIC, TAS, SA and Half of NSW (The South) = ALP
There is much discussion of many of the marginals swaying to the Coalition/LNP based on the national polling. What I am seeing is a much, much closer contest on the ground which I believe would favour Labor. Dawson is one such marginal where the recent polling is 50-50, and the betting is heading that way too.
Essential have posted details:
http://www.essentialmedia.com.au/category/essential-report-9th-august-2010/
Abbott and Hockey wouldn’t survive 10 minutes of the type of scrutiny Gillard is exposing herself to on a daily basis.
[The Costello ad and his response, increasing commentary on costings, debate on education,low-key Rudd, focus on economic issues, ramped up negative advertising, and ALP “launch” ahead all point to the camapign message being run on the ALP insiders preferred ground.]
So considering the Libs had their launch yesterday, what have they got left in the last two weeks of the campaign?
Surely it is not just, “this is a bad govt, this is a bad govt” mantra?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/09/2977555.htm?section=justin
Bishop asks “why is it that most other politicians get to hold babies, and I get to hold a cane toad?”.
My guess: it was a baby until you looked at it.
[When if ever have Essential had the ALP ahead 52-48?]
Essential had it at 50-50 on May 9 and May 16, 52-48 on May 23, 51-49 on May 30, 52-48 on June 6, 51-49 on June 13 and 52-48 on June 20. Labor then pulled away under Gillard.
[William are you saying Kroger expects Labor to narrowly win or is the ‘them’ part the Coalition winning?]
The former.
[Bishop asks “why is it that most other politicians get to hold babies, and I get to hold a cane toad?”.
My guess: it was a baby until you looked at it.]
Wicked, autocrat
My guess Julie: it was the cane toad stare.
Thanks William for the update 🙂
I have grown so used to large Labor leads from Essential.
Glen,
The Coalition’s big line for the last 2 years has been DEBT! DEBT! DEBT1!
Now they are spending lasciviously while trying to maintain the pretence that they will pay be in surplus at a similar time to the ALP.
The cognitive dissonance required to actually swallow that line is beyond even the most disengaged Australian voter.
Real Action man will be exposed over the next two weeks.
The town hall non-debate has exposed his lack of fortitude – he hasn’t got an excuse to actually debate Gillard now.
His costings will be in a shambles.
The Coalition small target campaign has just about run out of puff – Who is talking about the launch today? Nobody, that’s who. The big centrepiece of the campaign has copped a couple of lines and disappered into oblivion.
Of all the journo0s in there asking questions he did not answer Laura Tingle’s question.
I hope she covers that accordingly.
Then Shane wright asked him about the $40bil double highw3ay that truss is giving away and he never even mentioned it. Just raved on about something else and Toolman quickly slipped them in to the reply.
Shakes head!!!!!!.
Whenever Kroger’s name pops up, all I can think of is: If you can’t stop the leaks you can’t stop the boats.
essentail have been that a few times its easier to see than other polls just click in
i should have mine soon in the email
Is this meant to be good for the Libs coz it shows a swing to them from the last ER or good for Labor because it fits well with them being 51-52 vs 49-48?
BB
Hockey has announced savings above what they’ve announced through spending (i think they are ahead by 2.something billion dollars as far as I know.
Where is Labor going to cut spending or will they continue to tax us to recovery?
BK
If you saw it, what did you think of Julia’s press conference on education?
I generally don’t think Swan debates well, and often fumbles when hot under the collar. Hockey made him look like a fair dinkum genius.
I generally don’t think Swan debates well, and often fumbles when hot under the collar. Hockey made him look like a fair dinkum genius.
Hockey did his absolute best to make Swan look good, but even so I think Swan did pretty well on his own merits, much better than usual.
@Glen/38,
I’m pretty sure they haven’t spent much in the ‘election promises’
Gillard did say at the start to do not expect much.
does any one think we can get the pb up quite a bit more would it not be great to have the status qua
Wow! I mean WOW!
A new low for the campaign. Provided by FF.
[A FAMILY First Senate candidate says children raised by same-sex couples face the same “emotional abuse” experienced by Australia’s Stolen Generation.
Wendy Francis, who is running for the Senate in Queensland, says someone in her office used Twitter to share her view that “children in homosexual relationships are subject to emotional abuse”.
“Legitimising gay marriage is like legalising child abuse,” said the message, which has since been deleted.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/kids-of-same-sex-couples-like-abuse-says-family-first-senate-candidate-wendy-francis/story-fn3dxity-1225902995109
Of course we are all biased.
But I thought both did a good job for their respective sides.
But I’d give it to Hockey on points for not sounding so craven and calling out to Robb in the audience.
Glen,
You’re kidding about Hockey’s savings, aren’t you?
Mate, they are as real as the moon being made of cheese.
Treasury will rip them a new one on them alone.
The ALP has spent well below the Coalition – I have seen somewhere that just one of Abbott’s policies is more expensive than the entire ALP spend to date.
There is only one party showing restraint with the pork and it isn’t the one prattling on about debt.
[Of all the journo0s in there asking questions he did not answer Laura Tingle’s question.
I hope she covers that accordingly.]
Gaffhook – that was the one thing in the whole debate that I found the most interesting. Laura’s question was terrific and Joe knew he was snookered. He couldn’t answer it without looking stupid – which Laura already knew anyway.
BigBob
Well said.
A new low for the campaign. Provided by FF.
A new low? Not quite, you might recall one of their candidates advocating the burning of Lesbians sometime around the 2004 election, or possibly 2007, i forget which one.
@Bigbob/46,
The New Coalition is the old Labor spend-a-thon.