Newspoll marginals poll: NSW, Queensland, Victoria

Newspoll has targeted 17 marginal seats in NSW, Queensland and Victoria, with results that are heartening for Labor: a manageable 1.3 per cent swing in NSW, a surviveable 3.4 per cent in Queensland and, remarkably, a 6.2 per cent swing in their favour in Victoria. We are told of a 4.6 per cent drop in the Labor primary vote in the six NSW seats, an 8.1 per cent drop in the eight Queensland seats and a 1 per cent increase in three Victorian seats. The Coalition are respectively up two to 47 per cent and 1.7 per cent in Queensland, but down 5.3 per cent in Victoria.

UPDATE: PDF here. The seats covered were Bennelong, Eden-Monaro, Gilmore, Macarthur, Macquarie and Robertson in New South Wales, Brisbane, Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Forde, Herbert, Leichhardt and Longman in Queensland, and Dunkley, La Trobe and McEwen in Victoria.

Note also this evening’s Galaxy marginals poll and Nielsen national poll covered in the previous post.

Other matters of note:

• Stephen Lunn of The Australian reports that Antony Green, Newspoll’s Martin O’Shannessy and Bob Brown’s chief-of-staff Ben Oquist all agree that Greens preferences will run 80-20 to Labor as usual. This is contrary to much talk around the place from such as Dennis Shanahan, who spoke of Labor two-party results bloated by “heroic assumptions“ about Greens preferences. The Nielsen poll released earlier this evening gave Labor 86 per cent of respondent-allocated Greens preferences.

• An article on the Liberal campaign by Simon Canning and Patricia Karvelas of The Australian is interesting both for its content, and in providing the first hint of pre-emptive recriminations in the Liberal camp. “Senior Coalition frontbenchers” have complained the Liberal camapign director, Brian Loughnane, had “left Tony Abbott vulnerable with an overly safe advertising campaign”. John Singleton is quoted in the article saying it had been “the worst campaign the Liberal Party has ever run”. Many of the specific criticisms proffered ring false to these ears, but it has indeed been notable that Liberal advertising has failed to target “Kevin Rudd’s execution and re-emergence, and the constant distraction provided by former leader Mark Latham”.

• Michael Kroger in The Australian optimistically rates the week a “draw”, and appears to believe the decisive seats so far as a Labor majority is concerned will be Bass, Corangamite, Forde and Solomon. He also offers that “a Labor loss in the seat of Melbourne now seems likely”.

• Emma Chalmers of the Courier-Mail notes the Australian Electoral Commission’s statistics on postal vote applications show Labor has lodged three times as many as the Liberal National Party in a “a clutch of key Queensland marginal seats”. Labor is said to have learned its lesson after being slow off the mark with its postal vote campaign at last year’s state election.

• The Age reports the Northern Territory Country Liberal Party is likely to disendorse its candidate for Lingiari, Leo Abbott, for failing to inform the party he had breached a domestic violence order.

• GetUp! have had another win, this time in their challenge against the Australian Electoral Commission’s refusal to admit enrolment applications signed with a digital pen and submitted through their website. One observer who declined to join in the congratulations was Possum, who argued it would strengthen the “potential fraud” argument the Howard government used to justify its franchise-curtailment measures in 2006.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,072 comments on “Newspoll marginals poll: NSW, Queensland, Victoria”

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  3. [“Down to the wire” is a lazy journalist’s cliche which means “I don’t know what’s going on, or if I do know I don’t like it.”]

    Moving forward – “down to the fibre optic table” is a lazy journalist’s …

  10. OK folks, I have a suggestion. In the spirit of John Howard, why don’t we all agree to excise Qld. I mean, who needs them. What have Queenslanders ever done fo us? I’m for the Peoples Front of the Southern States…

  13. Can anybody here explain to me that if the $43 billion “great” NBN is a waste of money then why would you propose pissing $6 billion up against the wall building a “crappy” NBN, cause it’s hurting my mind !?!?!

  14. Dr Good @100, I even factored in a slightly lower national 2PP and a swing in WA and stayed on 83.

    Thing that worries me is this. We’re now punching in a 60+% state wide 2PP for Victoria. Reality just isn’t going to cooperate. Its more likely that either the choice of seats in Vic doesn’t reflect statewide (though why I cant guess) or more likely the sampling noise got the better of us.

    BUT.. if thats the case, you can’t just push down the overall 2PP in a state as populous as Victoria without wondering where the votes went to that would keep the national 2PP in balance.

    My feeling is that NSW just isn’t as bad state wide as the marginals that were sampled (which brings me back to a seat like Paterson).. or the swings are very uneven in QLD too.

  16. I have no problem with the Greens preferences going higher than 80%. That simply means that the extra Greens primaries that were suddenly found in the last few months are refugees from Labor.

  17. Don’t forget Hawkies role in this.
    At the age of 80 (same as my dear mammy) he has given himself to many labor causes and candidates around the country for the sake of the true believers..
    A true legend, never forgotten.

  20. @118 despite trying to be negative I think all that article does is give greater exposure to the fact that Abbott will actually cut PS jobs and wages. So now its the broader community that knows this – and it’ll make other non PSs worry about their own jobs/wages. Good stuff.

  21. ” Do not go gentle into that good night, Rage, rage against the dimming of the light.” -Thomas.

    The MSM are raging, but they are yet to realise that the candle is spent.

  24. re “The Great ALP Leaker” I’m thinking that this “Person” was very peeved that the Ruddmeister was disposed of so unceremoniously that she/he leeeked while Rudd and Gillard where Miles apart, But now that they are both all HUGS and KISSES the leaks
    are all dried up THANK god;

  26. The Australian concedes the 2010 election & fears for 2013 as well:

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/commentary/gillard-leans-to-the-left/story-e6frgd0x-1225905084394

    [“Gillard may become the ideal Labor leader for the times. If she prevails Gillard will vanquish Tony Abbott’s assault from the Right, drawing on female voters, the trade union movement and a preference deal with the Greens. The strength of her position, anchored in this shift to the Left, could be impressive. She would govern, of course, with the Greens holding the balance of power in the Senate, yet her ability as a negotiator suggests she may not be hostage to them.”]

  27. William Bowe

    “the seats covered were Robertson, Macquarie, Macarthur and Gilmore (4) in NSW; Herbert, Dickson, Longman, Flynn and Dawson (5) in Queensland; McEwen, La Trobe and Dunkley in Victoria.”

    no , your seats numbers only add up to 12 seats but 17 were done

    oz article and pdf says 8 Q’ld seats not your 5 listed , and lists othr 3 as Brissie , forde and Leichardt

    oz article & pdf says 6 NSW seats not your 4 seats , article makes ref to only 2 other NSW ets (Benelong and Eden Monaro) so asume they is missing 2

  28. Great news for JG with the polls I know it’s still very tight but the ALP should have some good opportunities over the next cpl of days to increase their vote with the official launch.

    I’m still finding quite a bit of criticism of Labor over the dumping of Rudd, I can usually talk them around quite easily but there is probably quite a few votes that we won’t recieve due to this.

    A bit nervous that the 60 minutes story could cause some damage unless it’s balanced. I think there going to try and show the punters what goes on behind the scenes to discredit the whole political process. Or it could just be a story on the press 😉

    cheers

  29. I actually believe that Flynn will hold.

    I believe the local member has been very good. Even though it is a pro-mining community and the Rudd knifing. With some help from Rudd – PLUS – the other effect I think is often overlooked.

    If the writing is on the wall … and the Government won’t change … even though you didn’t like losing Kevin – isn’t it better to keep a GOOD local member?

  30. Caution

    said that last Neilson was rogue with a then ridiculous low Labor primary

    before that site was on melt down methane when both Newspoll & Neilsen in 2nd week showed a labor loss , and suggested that was simple leak caused & said then Labor wuld win on econamy and W/C

    now all is on high with 53/47 (nielsen overstated labor 2 PPT by over 4% 2 days fom 2007 poll day Think should see first see Newspoll and Gallaxy

  31. The newspoll marginals look pretty good for the ALP as well so the Nielson may be correct. Also take into account last weekends polls that showed 52-48 and given Julia had a good week the 53-47 was exactly what would be expected I would have thought.

    cheers

  34. Also thx to Tony Abbott for his Adds telling th truth about Labors CC polisy of a carbon tax ie of a price on carbon !

    Despite blatent untruths posted here by many Green bloggers , Julai in this campaign has repeat said she wants a price on carbon and Assembly is for that purpose , and that Labors 5% ETS IS th starting benchmark of that desired Assembly consensus

    so Tony Abbott is rite in his TV adds , Labor does want a carbon ‘tax’ It reminds left and swing voters Labor is only party that introduced a co2 nmitigation Bill as promised in 2007 electon and per Garnaut’s 2 key recommends (an ETS and at 5% cut rate)

    so votes for Labor , thx to Tony

    2nd thx to Tony is by not JUST opposing NBN as a waste and moving on to BER rorts spin , instead silly Tony just had to come out with a competitor Liberal broadband plan , thereby highliting Labor’s NBN in comparion

    So even more Labor votes thx Tony

    Now if Tony can just make a serous gaffe on W/C , more thx will come seeing this weeks marginal seat Galaxy & News polls show i one cheks that about 16 NSW/Q’ld is close/at risk , but then Vic is sunnyside More Labor work in fields to do

  41. On the ground in a ‘safe’ Lib seat, out every day doorknocking and on prepolls.

    Incredibly positive feedback, best I’ve had – and I’ve been involved in several Federal campaigns here.

    Constant phone/email requests for HTV Labor info, daily am told “I used to vote Liberal, but this election….”

    The ‘state Labor governments are incompetent and Federal Labor is the same’ doesn’t resonate with Victorians, however much they might grumble about Brumby.

    And this is a progressive state, with few racial/migration concerns, which has seen the way the state govt’s investment in infrastructure at a local level has revitalised country towns and generally a very good experience with the BER program etc.

    So ‘boats, debt and waste’ don’t resonate here.

  42. The seat that needs to be hit hard this week is Bowman. All the Liberal resources in Brisbane have managed to find their way out to the Redlands for some weird reason. There is a lot to be said for Labor lifting its game in that seat.

  43. Independently. It’s sad but this site is the first thing I check when I wake up in the morning during an election campaign. Sometimes not the best mood setter for the day.

  44. Not sad, you’re just another election junkie like most here.
    I’m going to bed now as I have spent all night on a last minute leaflet.
    Now all we need is a boat to arrive…

  45. Bob Hawke at 80 was campaigning with Rick Sarre (who’s starting to look 80!) in Sturt on Wednesday. Pyne meanwhile is blitzing TV with expensive personal advertising.

    Maybe something’s going on. Or is this too good to be true?

  46. [The Federal Government will today outline a plan to help farmers earn money for selling carbon credits on the international market. ]

    The Opposition will outline a plan to stop the boats again.

  48. It’s interesting that Liberal Party operatives are rushing to push all of the blame onto Brian Loughnane and to shield Abbott from any criticism in the event they lose the election. Apparently an election loss will only be the fault of a poor advertising campaign and nothing to do with the way the leader has positioned the party to retake government.

  49. [ A week to go, it’s hers to lose, PHILLIP COOREY
    August 14, 2010

    Labor has stormed back into contention just one week before the federal election. The latest Herald/Nielsen poll shows a strong swing towards Julia Gillard and her government, and support for Tony Abbott and the Coalition has fallen sharply.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/a-week-to-go-its-hers-to-lose-20100813-1233j.html

    i told you things will get better as soon as i return and it will get even better in the last week. You cant beat “Guided Democracy” for the punters. You just keep on guiding them Jules.

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