There’s a poll of sorts, but it would be a bit of a stretch to give it its own headline:
• Roy Morgan has targeted a micro-sample of 200 voters in the crucial Victorian seat of McEwen, which could provide Labor with a desperately needed gain to offset losses in Queensland and New South Wales. Certainly that’s what the poll’s headline figure shows, with Labor leading 55.5-44.5, but the margin of error is approaching 7 per cent.
• Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics has full results from the weekend’s EMRS poll from Tasmania, which pointed to a statewide 4 per cent two-party swing to Labor from primary votes of 43 per cent for Labor (unchanged on 2007), the Liberals on 34 per cent (down four) and the Greens on 20 per cent (up six). The sample on the poll is about 1000, with a margin-of-error or about 3 per cent. As usual, 200-sample breakdowns of each of the state’s five electorates are provided, and for what they’re worth they show Labor enjoying the full force of the swing in marginal Bass and Braddon.
• Laura Tingle of the Financial Review wrote yesterday that “more seasoned sections of the Labor camp” believe they are “just ahead and will fall over the line”. This confidence was partly inspired by a conviction the party would be better placed to sway late undecided voters in the wake of a Labor launch which, Tingle accurately predicted, would seek to “maximise the government’s apparent economic conservatism as it launches TV ads that portray Abbott as too big a risk to the economy with the world economy still shaky”.
• Peter Kerr of the Financial Review reported yesterday that Labor insiders in Western Australia were “growing confident they were ahead in up to three (WA) marginals – Liberal-held Canning as well as Swan and Hasluck”. The result in each was thought likely to come down to “between 500 and 600 votes”. The report also noted the significance of John Howard holding a fund-raiser for Canning MP Don Randall this week.
• Simon Jackman in The Australian discusses the potential for the election to follow 1990 and 1998 in denying victory to the party with the greater share of the two-party vote. He also observes the disconnect between bookmakers’ odds on the overall result, which point to a clear Labor win, and individual seats, which point to Labor falling one seat short of an absolute majority.
UPDATE: Not sure if it’s already been linked to, but Essential Research has published state breakdowns from a combined three weeks of polling. The results are in line with other polling with the striking exception of NSW, where the swing is said to be 6.7 per cent. However, notwithstanding that Essential says “more detailed weighting has produced slightly different estimates than simply averaging the published weekly results”, I’m finding the state results hard to square with the reported national swing of 1.7 per cent. Weighting the averages for population puts it 1 per cent higher.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research have found an error in their state breakdowns, and revised NSW, WA and SA 1 per cent in Labor’s favour. So it’s now 5.7 per cent and 3.4 per cent against Labor in NSW and Queensland, and 0.7 per cent, 1.6 per cent and 0.3 per cent to Labor in Victoria, SA and WA.
[Rox
Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 6:57 am | Permalink
Thanks ltep – you and I (and Frank) have all been around since Kevin 07. Just because I don’t post a lot, it doesn’t mean I’m a troll.
Just ask my say]
rox i am not sure if you are green or labor i only say this because u and i must of been watching two different programs.
Julia handled kerry very well, i think kerry was the problem if you dont ask intelligent questions re policy what elese do we expect no he just wanted to concentrate on Kevin write to him or ring him like we did, abbott will get an easy time from him as usual
as for abbott on q a i found him unbearable to watch so came in to my computer to get get feed back from here yes he handled questions ok but only for his rusted one people the young people would rolling on the floor and laughing they where in this family he has no idea about their world and the NBN and there fore they dont respect any thing else he says because at this moment in their lives its the be all and end all after that it work choices and education
but that is my view I am over 60 that may be why i see things in a different way i have retired and i have seen a lot of the media and its not pretty, Julia has not had a fair run the abc 24 do not cross direct to most of her pressers they somehow manage to go to abbott well it seems that way any way. The media immediately jumped on her wonderful health policy re the broadband and turned it around, if you did not see the whole launch you would not even know she has extended child endowment as we called to 18 year olds that study, HESC ect, the health policy that allows people to a rebate from medicare for follow consultations done with their gp in remote areas after surgery with the camera attachment to the computer ( sorry the name escapes me) Obrien was NOT interested in policy only kev it was him i was dissapointed in. we are all over the kevin thing but the media live in their own bubble and dont seem to get it.
Al so this girl (PM) has been on the road now for weeks, she has given press conf that last 40 min getting ridiculous questions what does abbott do he has 10 min of bagging labor no policies and walks off, the press would not allow Julia to do that and nor they should but it seems abbott tries to set all agendas and gets away with it.
So also dont you agree she may have been feeling very tired and had an off night,
Well i am just trying to give some one who works a clear idea, as when you work its very hard to really know whats happening join us here of an evening i have certainly learned so much the links and the new clips we see and tweeting is amazing.
Franks put links up to things that the media dont tell you about either side.
Go and have a look at all the comments from last evening and you willl they are varied most agreed there was no voted for abbott in his little evenet, and Julia should of been ask questions more on policy.
But would love some feed back to see if you did know about her two wonderful forward thinking policies yesterday so make sure you tell all the girls at your work place i was out last week amoung the young trades people on building sites for the actu and i was inundated for brochures and car stickers, so alls good on the ground here, and i my opinion Julia is more than ready to lead this country. .
.
itep but are you labor or liberal
Rox:
[I hope I’m proved wRONg, but I really was embarrassed by Julia last night]
A ridiculous overreaction to a run-of-the-mill political interview. There was nothing remarkable about it.
‘Simon Jackman has followed the money for a long time and I’m a bit uneasy about him talking about a hung parliament.’
I don’t know how things have changed since then, but on the weekend i was having a long chat with a Labour insider who had been up north qld pre-polling for a few days. He pulled out his little notebook and tallied up about 5/6 seats they may well lose in qld. However, they reckoned they would still win the thing, but it would be close.
The feeling I had from reading various sources was that this scenario was the most likely.
Swan just said that the Libs have said that they will not be naming the accounting firm that is going over teir election promises.
Courage again!
One western Sydney seat not to worry about is my own electorate of Greenway. The margin is about 5.5%, actually less than Lindsay, but there is little evidence of a Liberal campaign. The Liberal candidate is a gent called Jayme Diaz, a migration agent from the Filipino community. I wouldn’t have thought that was the ideal profile for a candidate for this seat. Placards for the Labor candidate, Blacktown councillor Michelle Rowland, would outnumber placards for Diaz by about 10:1. The same with printed material through the letterbox-there is something from Labor almost daily, but I’ve only got two pamphlets from the Libs the whole campaign. I’d speculate the Libs see Greenway as unwinnable, and are focusing resources in Lindsay and Macquaire further west.
[I hope I’m proved wRONg, but I really was embarrassed by Julia last night. However, I’m hoping the Green vote will stay strong and get us all over the li]
say again it must be the only time you have jg this year then
Costing again 🙂 The libs need to campaign better than this.
They are not campaigning to win, but to minisies their losses.
[When people are talking net gains I presume they’re referring to their 2007 total rather than the total that includes notional gains? So 83+ rather than 88+?]
I think this “notional gain” stuff unnecessarily complicates things. It’s bizarre to think of a seat like Dickson being a Labor “hold” if they win it when Peter Dutton has been in our faces attacking the government for three years.
Anyway, how can they be sure which way the people who’ve moved electorates voted last time? You only have polling booth locations to go on, so there mst be some guesswork involved.
I’d rather stick to the 2007 total. It’s much simpler just to say that where a sitting member loses, the seat has changed hands. I hope the TV channels do that on Saturday, but I guess they won’t.
Indeed, especially if they are going to spin it massively “there is a real anger sent to the government” if they are going to down from 88 to 80.
While using 2007 total its just 3 seats 83 to 80…
‘Swan just said that the Libs have said that they will not be naming the accounting firm that is going over teir election promises.’
If that is true, thats exceptionally poor form from the libs. What would the rationale be?
It’s just been leaked who is the reputable accounting firm that the Libs are using to run the ruler over their policies. Its FBN Accounting** in Bourke.
** FBN – Fly By Night Accounting
[Costing again The libs need to campaign better than this.
They are not campaigning to win, but to minisies their losses.]
may be time to do a bob hawke emails to your favourite talk back
eg if you are building a house and you ask the builder what it will cost and he says
Well mate not sure will let you know when i have signed the contract”
people get that sort of thing i think so why not google local abc radio and got to it
i have
BK what do you think of my idea 63
have to go out today hopefully some more building sites if i can
i’m sticking to the rule that if you dont have anything nice to say, dont say anthing at all.
Hi, been away for a few days, but isn’t it exciting, looks like a close one.
The economic debate and the new town hall meeting could sway a few, but it looks like Tony may be a bit more desperate. (Just for agreeing).
I think the Liberals just have a bit too much of a mountain to climb and they know it.
Julia looks a bit tired and strained to me but who wouldn’t be, I don’t know how they do it.
But she’s still amazing, I even need notes to make a small speech and a toast at a wedding (three married daughters), how the hell does she go through a launch in front of those people and on TV without notes and makes it sound easy, must have a sensational grasp on herself and an incredible intellect? One of the most amazing speakers I’ve seen!
But as you all probably know I like both candidates and Tony is also surprising me every day, he’s pretty good at the adlib and aplomb himself.
How much do you think policy will decide this one? I don’t think that much, I think when it comes down to it at the death it’s who the swinging votes will feel they can trust the most.
I’ve never heard so many people say they are undecided even at this stage and I think that’s a symptom of two good candidates.
Green/Labor my say. I’ve always been very pro-Julia. Perhaps I was hoping for too much last night.
And yes, we older voters (I’m almost your age) can see through Abbott, but not everyone is as engaged as we are, and I reckon they’re more easily swayed by the superficialities of what they see. I hope I’m underestimating the Australian public, but you know what they say…..
BK, a bit PC here but Bourke does not need your (unintended) dissing, there would be more dodgy accounting in Mossman I’d estimate!
BK – I heard it was the Dodgy Brothers.
Labor need to come out with their costings straight away and then turn the blowtorch on the libs on this issue.
Labor, 80 seats in the House of Reps, and a Green balance of power in the Senate. The Lib strategy of a movement to right will have resulted in the exact opposite. That’s democracy for you. Howard gone, Downer gone, Ruddock gone, Abbott gone. All good!
[67 Roxanna]
the alp Launch was magnificant, she spoke with out notes and rememberd every body and every one and when i saw tim to up on that stage i new she was a woman with conviction and love of family.
she reminds me of Liz the first and very stoic in her stance on things.
And very very clever
philmour
Nothing against Bourke. I was just trying to make a point that they are running. I agree that the dodgy operators ARE more likely to be found in large population centres.
[Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 8:41 am | Permalink
Labor, 80 seats in the House of Reps, and a Green balance of power in the Senate. The Lib strategy of a movement to right will have resulted in the exact opposite. That’s democracy for you. Howard gone, Downer gone, Ruddock gone, Abbott gone. All good!]
you all seem confident this morning have i missed something
Abbott has agreed to 30 min debate for tonight and forum tomorrow (same as rooted hill).
Julia responds 1 hour debate and forum on same night.
Which is a more sensible arrangement?
my say @ 64
Might be worth a try
my say
As I have mentioned to you previously, our confidence is like a rollercoaster, sometimes up and sometimes down!! These things can’t be helped.
You guys were around for Liz the first? 😛 One of our members of parliament were I think?
Barnaby’s a qualified accountant right? I’m going to guess one of his mates/old firm is doing the costings 😉
What gets me about the costings. Are the Libs saying that they don’t trust Treasury. The same Treasury that worked for them for nearly 12 years?
victoria
If Julia can pull off a negotiated forum where there is a one hour economy debate preceding a one hour audience questioning of both her and the unhinged one on the stage together it would be a good outcome.
This has been the theme in the whole 3 interviews Julia has done on 7:30 report.
The second interview, the issue about when Julia had last spoken to Kev went on and on and on.
From memory with the first interview I think kerry wanted details of the night Julia decided to challenge.
Irrespective of kerry’s intentions the effect has been to prevent Julia talking about anything else until the very end of the interview.
Kerry took the same approach in his interview with Swan and it was again only at the end of the interview that swanny was about to talk about anything else apart from Kev.
[Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 8:46 am | Permalink
my say
As I have mentioned to you previously, our confidence is like a rollercoaster, sometimes up and sometimes down!! These things can’t be helped.]
of course they cant i know that only too well, sat will be awful not sure how to fill it up what are you doing victoria
BK
Of course that would be the most sensible arrangement. Why should two nights be taken up, when it can be done together. I suspect he is trying to get out of interview with the lovely Red Kerry.
My say
On election day, my son plays football. Then Hawks play Freemantle in Launceston. We will watch it on pay tv. That will take up most of afternoon. What about you?
Perahelion @ 66
I have never heard so many saying nothing at all – I heard somewhere yesterday that the polls are showing 42% undecided. It is going to be interesting!
[Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 8:44 am | Permalink
Abbott has agreed to 30 min debate for tonight and forum tomorrow (same as rooted hill).
Julia responds 1 hour debate and forum on same night.
Which is a more sensible arrangement?]
so abbott wanted two, so cannot stand the pace all on the one night
is that what you mean victoria,
hope i did not upset you what i meant was had i missed some more news re a poll or somthing over night.
[I have never heard so many saying nothing at all – I heard somewhere yesterday that the polls are showing 42% undecided]
gee i havent heard about that number any one else
my say#85
read my post at 82
my say
the only thing that will upset me this week is Labor losing!!
A 30 minutes debate, if you allow for equal time, gives each candidate 15minutes. 2 minutes per answer gives you 7 questions per candidate (need to include time needed to ask questions). But will you allow opening and closing statements? So maybe 5 questions per candidate. How about giving candidates a right of reply? Then you are down to 3 to 4 questions per candidate. 30 minutes in total would just be a waste of time. Should be an hour at least.
Well Grahame Morris is a Canberra-based partner with PricewaterhouseCoopers and is chairman of the firm’s Office of Federal Government Services.
http://www.architecture.com.au/i-cms?page=9798
(worth noting too that he is a former Strategic Policy Director for News Ltd – its incestuous really isn’t libs & news corp ??)
Access Economics also tend to do opposition financial modeling because of the ex Dept of Treasury former senior staffers who work for Access Economics these days – Chris Richardson in particular.
From what I’ve read of this thread, I’m still not sure what’s going to be happening tonight? Have Abbott and Gillard agreed on anything yet?
all the sport things are over for us now grandson may start next year, so not sure,
I am going to see if my oldest daughter will take me for a drink at a place called knopwoods the first member of our family in australia tasmania was married there
it use to belong to the first minister in Tasmania rev knopwood, we have been doing some work on the family background it was the first every marriage on the island
i was told there is a plaque there dont like to go in to bars on my own, so perhaps a coffee there and may be salamanca market which is great i did volunteer for julie Collins but she has all she needs so thats good.
then come home and later i think i will read a magazine or book in the bed room and when some one says its ok mum then i will come out scary when you think it through best not to think past that time
dave
[coalition not naming accounting firm]
That is what democracy and accountability looks like with the Libs!!
TTFN – I’m going out to complete the plumbing of a big rainwater tank.
Back inside for the unhinged one to front the Press Club.
my say
That sounds like a nice way to spend the day. Hawthorn is playing in Tassie on that day, if we were there that is where we would go!!
well we will see if the junos have it in them to ask about costing if not
it tell you a lot
BK
I wish Laurie Oakes would have a bombshell for Abbott at the Press Club. That would make my day!!!
[ the polls are showing 42% undecided }
-relax, that’s a figure quoted by Andrew Robb. And he was only referring to “some polling” as far as I recall.
Looking at the Herald Scum today. It has not been too bad against Julia. That is telling me that the wind is certainly blowing very favourably for Labor in this State!!
[Hawthorn is playing in Tassie on that day, if we were there that is where we would go]
welll i think some of the family would, there is a big argument at the moment
north and south are like to different coutries, we think we should have a team down here and so one they thing they should have cricket up there and so on.
its crazy i dont think it will ever change.
its the same in athletics and hockey and tennis they even say the best thing about hobart is the road out, just silly they are very very country up there
lol but a when it comes to voting i think over all we are very labor
my daughter is married in to a premiers family and is so nice he was not that popular with some people but we know him and he is salt of the earth i wish we still had him