D-day minus 2

Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail on the Queensland situation:

Labor looks like losing three seats in Queensland at the very least – Leichhardt, Flynn, Dawson – and not picking up the Liberal-held but notionally ALP electorates of Herbert and Dickson. Beyond this Forde, Petrie, Longman and Bonner are within reach for the Coalition but still defendable for Labor. The other Queensland marginals – Brisbane, Moreton and Blair – look to be out of reach for the Coalition but this remains an expect-the-unexpected contest. Another unexpected wild card that is troubling some in the Queensland LNP and exciting a few Labor campaigners is the seat of Wright, the newly created electorate which sprawls to the south of Greater Brisbane and is, on paper, a 4.8 per cent Coalition seat. Some local trouble with the Coalition candidate, Scott Buchholz, and his electoral roll status as well as a few issues running Labor’s way has caused a nervous reassessment in conservative circles, although signs of a 3 to 4 per cent anti-government swing in Queensland make it look like a rank outsider.

Nick O’Malley and Erik Jensen of the Sydney Morning Herald note a curious fact:

But what is truly remarkable about western Sydney is the seats of Lindsay, Macarthur and Macquarie do not enjoy the largesse expected in key marginals. They are among the most important seats in NSW, held on margins of between 0.3 and 6.3 per cent, but there is almost no campaign pork barrelling. Labor’s $2 billion for an Epping-to-Parramatta rail link falls short of the region, though it will ease traffic. The best the Liberals have managed is $5 million to upgrade local sports grounds and some money for a bushland corridor. And still the seats are without adequate transport.

Elsewhere:

Bennelong  (NSW, Labor 1.4%): Momentum is building behind the idea that Maxine McKew will not be spared the backlash against Labor in Sydney. A Liberal source quoted by Imre Salusinszky of The Australian said party polling had their candidate John Alexander “well in front, confirming what state Liberal MPs based in northern Sydney have been telling The Australian since the beginning of the campaign”. However, a Labor source is quoted saying their polling has it at 50-50, to which McKew recovered after Alexander was “edging towards a win on first preferences” at the start of the campaign. A 300-sample Morgan poll conducted on Tuesday had Alexander leading 50.5-49.5

Robertson  (NSW, Labor 0.1%): A complaint to police alleging Liberal candidate Darren Jameson had manhandled two boys he believed had thrown eggs at his car has been withdrawn. Jameson is blaming Labor for the leaking of the complaint to the media. Imre Salusinszky argues that if indeed was a Labor plot to besmirch Jameson in the eyes of local voters, it hasn’t worked.

Herbert (Qld, Labor 0.4%): Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan were in Townsville on Tuesday to launch mainland construction of the National Broadband Network. The fortuitous placement of NBN pilot sites and GP super clinics was covered in depth yesterday by Nikola Berkovic and Adam Cresswell of The Australian.

Courtesy of Lukas in comments, here’s a full list of Labor two-party results from the JWS Research/Telereach robopoll. You can see a full set of results for Bass here; for any other electorate, make the obvious change to the URL. The Lindsay page is broken, hence its lack of a figure in the table. Bold denotes a seat tipped to change hands.

ALP WINS ALP 2PP% LNP WINS ALP 2PP%
Franklin 65 Leichhardt 49.9
Bendigo 61 Robertson 49.8
Deakin 61 Corangamite 49.5
Bass 60 Calare 49
Kingston 59 Bennelong 48
Braddon 58 Flynn 48
McEwen 57 Cowan 48
Dunkley 57 McMillan 48
Hindmarsh 56 Swan 48
Brand 56 Sturt 47
Eden-Monaro 54 Stirling 47
Boothby 54 Dawson 46
Cowper 54 Canning 46
Dobell 53 Ryan 46
Page 53 Petrie 44
Gilmore 53 Forde 44
Moreton 52 Hughes 44
Paterson 52 Hinkler 44
Greenway 51 Hasluck 43
La Trobe 51 Grey 42.5
Longman 51 Macarthur 42
Solomon 51 Bonner 41
Herbert 51 Brisbane 41
Macquarie ? Dickson 41
    Fisher 41
    Bowman 40
    Fairfax 40
    Wright 36
Lindsay ?

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,112 comments on “D-day minus 2”

Comments Page 3 of 23
1 2 3 4 … 23

  1. [Nicola Roxon is terrific – an excellent performer. Health is a very good fit for her.

    I must admit to a secret longing, however, that Tanya Plibersek gets education if the ALP is returned.]

    Fiz, my Labor senior dream team: Gillard, Roxon, McKew 😀

  2. ‘Morning all. (Back on Safari again. Same prob as yesterday.)

    Amid all the poll talk, I thought a bit of gren energy of the more peaty variety should cheer ye oop, och aye!

    Scots create whisky-based fuel

    Updated Wed Aug 18, 2010 2:03pm AEST
    Stills at a whisky distillery

    Biofuel breakthrough: Stills at the Talisker distillery on the Isle of Skye (ABC News: Giulio Saggin)

    Scientists in Scotland have unveiled a biofuel developed from the by-products of the whisky distillation process.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/18/2986352.htm

  3. [Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 8:56 am | Permalink
    Nicola Roxon is terrific – an excellent performer. Health is a very good fit for her.

    I must admit to a secret]

    George did she mention the pbs have a listen to see if they read my email re the pbs

  4. I haven’t read the posts from last night, but no one in the media seemed to notice that Julia didn’t really give the right answer to the NBN question in the forum. The reason for the cost blowout from $4.3b to $43b is that the original proposal wasn’t for an FTTH network.

  5. [101 george
    Posted Thursday]

    if you have friends in maxine seat tell them how good she is, i hear she is very kind gving and caring,. spread the news to your friends

  6. [Labor is far too nice for their own good, whereas the Liberals will flight, claw, lie, mislead, do and say anything.]

    Yes. You don’t have to be squeaky clean, just noticeably less dirty than your opponents. Sad but true.

    •••

    Burgey @ 89, & middle man @ 97. Agree completely.

  7. Triton

    I noticed that too and was almost ready to yell at the screen. The questioner asked her if it was quicker or bigger than the original proposal. She could have easily answered that yes in fact it is bigger. It will now go into every home rather than stop at the street.

    Very frustrating.

  8. [George did she mention the pbs have a listen to see if they read my email re the pbs]

    I missed a few minutes so not 100% sure.

    Now Fielding is on… and I’m losing my breakfast…

  9. Maybe the fact the ALP considers so many people who live in the Western suburbs “bogans” is what’s alienated them from the party. That line is franky as patronising as anything trotted out by the right wing commentators who love their sweeping generalisations about those who vote Labor and/ or Greens.

    What a laugh! I don’t think the ALP considers people living in the western suburbs as bogans at all – they’re the bread and butter of Labor! If anything, I’m annoyed that this election has come down to *both* parties chasing a small number of voters in marginal seats – and all the lowest common denominator stuff that that attracts.

    Anyway, my commentary was centred more around Trioli and *her* stereotyping. You obviously couldn’t see the tongue firmly planted in my cheek.

  11. george

    Hockey reflects the rest of the Libs. Say anything however ridiculous. They are relying on some of it filtering through.

    I did not get the name of the gentleman who was on ABC radio. I think he was a Political scientist? Anyhow, he said that based on everything he has seen and studied, Labor will be returned on Saturday.

  15. had to laugh about the comment about tassie beer there are two brands one in the south and one in the north now she doesn’t know how she would set a cat amoung the pigeons with this one. North and south are very pero cual

  17. [The Opposition leader’s minders are telling reporters he will campaign “non-stop for 36 hours” and that “the only sleep he will get is catnaps in cars.”]

    Awesome. Let the craziness begin.

  18. [The Libs costing document lists $1.2 billion in savings from cutting the PBS.]

    But didn’t the coalition promise to extend cheap pharmaceuticals to seniors?

  20. I think the key seats to watch on Saturday night will be Brisbane/Bonner/Forde/Petrie. If you believe the seat by seat markets, and Labor loses all the Qld regionals, all the outer Sydney marginals, plus 2 in Perth and Solomon, with only McEwen going the other way, that leaves Labor teetering on the brink of defeat, with 75 seats (or 74 plus a green if Melbourne falls). So the Libs need to break in to Brisbane to win. If these 4 seats all hold for Labor, and a couple of the marginals don’t fall (say, 1 or 2 out of Lindsay/Solomon/Hasluck/Bennelong/Herbert), or if Labor can pick up one or two more in the south (maybe Latrobe, or even Boothby), then Labor is home narrowly (which I’m guessing is the more likely scenario). No wonder Gillard is in Brisbane!

  21. [But didn’t the coalition promise to extend cheap pharmaceuticals to seniors?]

    That is the genious of Robb’s abacus, you spend more and it ends up a saving. 😆

  22. [The Opposition leader’s minders are telling reporters he will campaign “non-stop for 36 hours” and that “the only sleep he will get is catnaps in cars.”]

    Every opportunity for him to go crazy as he gets less sleep and becomes more cranky – awesome!

  23. As to concession speeches I’d like hear: “um..ahh…I’m no tech-head, but it’s quite clear that this has been A GREAT BIG ELECTION LOSS. I’d like to thank my supporters in the media, both here and abroad…what can I say, you guys were terrific.”

  25. my contribution to the costings debacle.
    Re. the $800million ‘saving’ on interest by the coalition because they won’t go ahead with the NBN. This hole is because the Oppn have – according to Treasury overestimated the interest saved.
    One way to rationalise this is that interest rates would be significantly higher under a coalition govt, which explains the extra ‘saving’.

    Also BB – chutzpah needed for economic management – Keating of course was the master – imagine if he were attacking the opposition re costings.

  27. [The Libs costing document lists $1.2 billion in savings from cutting the PBS.]

    That will not go down well at all in voterland.

  29. [The Libs costing document lists $1.2 billion in savings from cutting the PBS.

    That will not go down well at all in voterlan]

    send emails to talk back i dont know the commercial ones down here

  31. OK, so here’s a bit of a vent.

    Last night Abbott, in one answer, in plain language, said one of the aims of his PPL scheme was to encourage Australians to have more babies and cited the success of the baby bonus in doing that.

    Later in the same answer he said his government would cut immigration levels to Australia because many of those people end up in our traffic jams.

    I realise the complexities of the populatoin argument and understand why the PM wouldn’t pick him up directly on his indefensible position.

    I also realise that it’s an easy thing to say someone is a racist and if you do that it’s almost impossible to win the argument. But I think some level headed person with a solid reputation should, at some point, say it clearly that Abbott is a racist.

    To say you want more nice Australian children but fewer of those from other countries because they cause congestion, is nothing other than racism.

    Let’s call it how we see it.

  32. middle man@97

    Labor need to decide what its true values are in some areas. Boaties is one of them. But trying to reach out to certain ‘disaffected’ working people is just leaving them exposed to the Greens on the left flank.

    Labor need need to decide if they are willing to represent the ‘bogan’, and if they are going to stick by them and respect them. If so they can’t bag them when they turn off Labor.

    The party certainly does need to consider its reason for existing. They have sold out all their thinking supporters to pander to the likes of these guys quoted in that SMH article about western Sydney. And they are still going to lose seats out there so it was all to no avail:

    ”I reckon we should put them all on a plane and send them home,” says Carter as he drives from his trench to a job in Gladesville.

    ”You see that on Border Security. It’s a hell of a lot cheaper.”

    In Julia Gillard’s office it is well understood no matter how tough Labor goes on this issue, voters like these will always trust Tony Abbott to be tougher.

    ”I f—ing hate boat people. F— them off,” says Neil Frost, 28, a Liberal-voting tradesman from Penrith. ”They come over here and get everything for free.”

    No party of principle can pander to that and retain any credibility, let alone ‘stick by and respect’ such people. Where does that attitude end? How do you satisfy it? It just wants more and more – ‘ús and them’ gone mad.

    Those currently in control of the party have no vision or principle – it has now devolved to ‘whatever it takes’ in its purest form. That is, whatever it takes in pandering to the lowest common denominator in marginal seats like those two gems above. Leadership – the desire to take the voters to a better place despite the prejudice of some – has now disappeared from the mainstream duopoly of Australian politics.

    I hope there is a huge philosophical review and the party comes back to standing for something. The first thing you do is you shoot all those NSW right twerps and their southern extended family. I hope Faulkner and Tanner have a lot of support for that. There are apparently a lot of members unhappy with the takeover of the party. Let the blood flow after Saturday.

  33. [Are you personally familiar with the Bennelong area?]

    Not at all. It’s just that McKew doesn’t have John Howard’s personal following to overcome this time, only a dummy newcomer.

  34. I will be very surprised if Labor don’t make the PBS cuts a major talking point. Health is one of the great differences between them and the Libs, and has always been seen as such by voters.

  35. triton

    I agree with you re McKew. It is somewhat baffling. That is why I asked if you were familiar with the demographics of the area.

  37. [That is the genious of Robb’s abacus, you spend more and it ends up a saving.]

    So the coalition promise to extend cheaper pharmaceuticals to seniors, thus potentially blowing out the PBS even further, and then a couple of weeks later turn up PBS costings showing savings?

    Not only are they making cuts to offset the increased PBS spending on seniors, but their cuts go further than that. So what really is being cut? And will anybody ask about this?

  38. For Christ sake, the libs have increased the efficiency dividend by another billion.

    So not only are they freezing the Public Service , they are gouging it again.

    All this and services aren’t going to be effected.

  40. Paul Kelly in the Oz – paraphrase –
    Julia tried hard but Tony Abbot won with his charm and common touch.
    Que?
    Frankly, I prefer a prime minister who speaks clearly and doesn’t smack his lips and show his tongue when he’s thinking. Charming – ugh!

  41. [Not only are they making cuts to offset the increased PBS spending on seniors, but their cuts go further than that. So what really is being cut? And will anybody ask about this]

    ring the pharmacie GUILD in your area becuase this effects the pharmacies also
    MAKE SURE they say something

  42. [Frankly, I prefer a prime minister who speaks clearly and doesn’t smack his lips and show his tongue when he’s thinking. Charming – ugh]

    yes yuk yuk what is with these people do they beleive what they say or is just us woman

  43. A poll in Paterson in the Newcastle Herald had ALP in front 51-49 TPP.

    Primaries:

    ALP 40
    Lib 42
    Green 8

    Run by Patterson Market Research has a sample size of 366, with a margin of error of 5.2%. So even though a high MOE it does confirm the mega-poll yesterday.

    As much as I would like to believe this, I still think Baldwin will hold for the Libs.

  45. [All this and services aren’t going to be effected.]

    He was asked about this last night. His new glib response is wtte this term has shown how ineffective the public service is at delivering services and programs.

  47. @146

    Oh good. So depressed I hadn’t read it yet. But soooo disappointed at the article by Paul Kelly. I thought he was the great Wisdom of Canberra (sarcasm)

  48. [For Christ sake, the libs have increased the efficiency dividend by another billion.]

    My wife is a federal public servant. the other month her crappy stapler broke, so she went to get another one. ‘no can do’ they said, not until new financial year. she had to go out to the newsagent to buy her own. the ‘efficiency dividend’ is already at maximum stretch. how they intend to rip anothe billion out is beyond me – maybe staff provide their own computers and desks?

    Its the tired old myth of ‘fat cat public servants’. My wife was the top performing member of her team over 6 months. They awarded her a DIY certificate and a freddo frog. I shit you not.

  49. I presume others have commented on this, but Abbott’s statement about “slashing debt” is both stupid and vulnerable to attack. Say the following:
    – What is Abbott going to cut to slash debt? It is more than just the NBN, because that will be sold to cover its cost. Will he cut health? Benefit payments?
    – Why do we need to further slash debt, when it is already low and interest rates are still lower than under Howard?
    – Will the coalition risk causing a “first dip” recession in Australia, by withdrawing the stimulus too soon? The United States and UK are arguably already in that situation.

    Are we going to get the recession Tony Abbott wants us to have?

    This is the interesting quote from the SMH article: What are “budget savings”?
    [The debt savings would come from scrapping the national broadband network, which requires borrowing $18 billion. The rest would come from selling Medibank Private, worth $4 billion, and paying off debt with budget savings.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/abbott-pledges-to-slash-debt-20100818-12f8e.html?autostart=1

  50. victoria@136

    jv
    Hi, still going with the donkey vote?

    Hi. No, not a donkey vote – but a tantrum informal vote in the Reps. 😆
    It’s like a choice between Brian Harradine and Pauline Hansen to me. It won’t matter in Robertson anyway – Labor has no chance there.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 3 of 23
1 2 3 4 … 23