Here are mine – I’ll explain my rationale, if any, tomorrow. This starts from the post-redistribution seat total of 88 out of 150 for Labor, rather than their actual 83. In New South Wales, Labor to lose Macarthur, Macquarie, Robertson and Gilmore. In Victoria, Labor to gain McEwen and La Trobe, and lose Melbourne to the Greens. In Queensland, Labor to lose Dickson, Herbert, Flynn, Dawson and Leichhardt. In Western Australia, Labor to lose Hasluck and Swan. In South Australia, Labor to gain Boothby. Status quo in Tasmania and the territories. Final result: Labor 79, Coalition 67, independents three, Greens one.
Over to you. Please keep this thread for election predictions: for general discussion, go to the post above this one.
Missed Robertson off my expected casualty list (it’s such a basket-case I’d forgotten it is notionally Labor!) but I’ll stay at 78. Add one unstated wildcard Labor save or win. (Seat-by-seat is a mug’s game anyway.) 😉
As committed to earlier in the campaign:
ALP = 80 seats
Coalition = 67 seats
Independents = 3 seats
Labor/Green 78 Libs/Nats/LNP 69 Ind. 3
I don’t care what the split is – just that Tony Abbott stays out of The Lodge.
Odds are stacking up at
74 ALP + 1 Green
vs
72 Coalition + 3 Independents with coalition leanings
My prediction is that the ALP will form government due to “unpredictable win” in a previously safe Coalition seat (eg corangamite in 2007). Vic or SA is ALP’s best chance of an “unpredictable win”.
OK I’m joining in late but here goes
The swing will as usual be all over the place, but, this time, within state boundaries, given the clear state differences consistently showing up with statistical validity in the polls. I think Qld will be better than the ALP fears but NSW will be slightly worse, with Vic and SA delivering at least the generally predicted wins, minus Melbourne to the Greens. I’m going to back Possum’s modelling and go with
Labor 77, Greens 1, Conservative Inds 3, LibNats 69
If this comes true we will be seeing a government with proportionally more VIC/SA /leftness/greeness and less NSW / rightness. If there was any justice (which after this campaign is passing hard to believe) the geniuses at Sussex Street would then be fed into the shredder they so richly deserve, including destruction at the NSW state poll. Sadly and bewilderingly, their hold on the national party appears not a bit diminished by any amount of incompetence, malveasance or dysfunction. Sigh.
I hope the NSW right shrivels up and bursts into flames like the vampires they are now that they’ve been exposed as the slimy cretins they are.
A better than expected performance in Queensland, and some compensatory gains in Vic/SA, and the loss of some NSW right deadwood would be fine – as long as Abbott is dead, cremated, buried.
Just throwing in an ill-informed guess:
Labor losses:
NSW Bennelong, Gilmore, Lindsay, Macarthur, Macquarie, Robertson;
Qld.: Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Leichardt;
WA: Swan (predict Labor to hold Hasluck).
Total losses 11
Labor gains:
Victoria, LaTrobe, McEwen; (except them to hold Melbourne)
SA: Boothby, Sturt
WA: Canning.
Tasmania and NT: no change
Total gains 5
Result 82 – 65 – 3
My best guess is that it was 52/48 at the start, was 52/48 in the middle and now will be 52/48.
Labour to win 80 seats, Independents 3, Coalition 67.
Libs to hold the balance of power in the Senate.
My call: 77 ALP, 1 Green, 3 Indep, remainder the twin sides of ‘climate change is crap’.
My In-sider mates call: 75 ALP, 1 Green, 3 indep, balance ditto. & Greens to win the ACT Senate position from Lib, which means BOP to the Greens in the senate from day 1.
Either of these outcomes in the lower house would be a ‘win’. ACT result would also be great.
Be strong and ‘Keep the faith’ (My Irish-Australian Labor Left kind, not Rabbot’s!)
My prediction based on poll averages and conventional “wisdom”:
Labor 80
Coalition 66
Independents 3
Greens 1
Our Lady of Lalor to be returned on the back of a tight Greens’ preference flow (85%+)
TPP 52.0% ALP
Ok, I’m making a pessimistic-optimistic prediction.
ALP will get 51.6% of the 2PP, but marginals will break badly for them and they will lose narrowly in a swag of seats.
(On the other hand with Di Natale easily elected to the Senate it will be up to Bandt to provide an achingly close loss for the Greens in Melbourne.)
ALP to fall on top of (and not quite over) the line with 75 seats. Independents will guarantee supply but none will accept speakership and ALP will need at least one of the cross bench to pass legislation.
ALP lose 14
NSW: Bennelong, Gilmore, Macarthur, Macquarie, Robertson
Qld: Bonner, Dawson, Flynn, Forde, Leichardt, Herbert, Petrie
WA: Swan
Vic: Corangamite
ALP win 1
VIC: McEwen
I feel upbeat, against the grain. I have a strong feeling that a high proportion of undecided voters will be turned off big time by the crazed look on Tony Abbott’s face at the end of his no-sleep stunt. I also feel that Julia Gillard, while quite boring at times, has projected calm and stability.
This late flood of undecideds Labor’s way will stave off the kind of swing that would produce a hung parliament or worse.
Still, I can’t see Labor saving Melbourne, for instance, though I’m more optimistic about the likes of Bennelong, against the grain. The reasoning there is that Green voters or more committed to their position than wavering Howard battlers.
Labor 83
Coalition 63
Independents 3
Greens 1
There always ends up a lot less seats changing hands than are speculated. I also think there will be a lot of the undecided come down in favour of ALP. As possum has noted the polls have matched 2004 and the government of the day outperformed the polls so I’m expecting that again too.
I think it will be 81-66-3. As follows:
ALP losses:
Petrie (QLD)
Leichhardt (QLD)
Hasluck (WA)
Forde (QLD)
Dawson (QLD)
Flynn (QLD)
Swan (*) (WA)
Macarthur (*) (NSW)
Robertson (NSW)
Gilmore (*) (NSW)
Dickson (*) (QLD)
ALP gains:
Paterson (NSW)
La Trobe (VIC)
Boothby (SA)
McEwen (VIC)
Possible gains:
Cowper (NSW)
Aston (VIC)
Dunkley (VIC)
83 seats ALP
Your prediction looks good to me BillBowe. I haven’t been engaged enough in this campaign to really have a dissenting opinion, but I’ll throw in my $0.05:
– Bennelong (where I have been paying some attention) to be held by Maxine McKew as you predict. I’d rate it as probably 70% chance for Labor.
– The MSM hysteria notwithstanding, the polling seems to have settled out at about 51 to 51.5% Labor 2PP. Allowing for variability in the marginals, 79 to ALP looks about right, probably plus or minus 3 or 4 seats.
– From the marginal seat polling – too many assumptions being made about consistent swing, particularly from the innumerate amongst the MSM. Also no idea about MoE amongst these same respected reporters. So, several Labor marginals to be lost, but I have no idea which ones, and several to stay Labor.
Vote early, vote often, etc.
Labor 50.5% 2PP but Canberra will be a nuclear test site for NSW.
ALP: 71
LNP: 76
IND: 3
WorkChoices was our only weapon against the anti-boat brigade.
For what it’s worth, my prediction is:
ALP 75
Coalition 71
Green 1
Ind 3
Losses, based on the notional starting point include Herbert, Robertson, Macquarie, Solomon, Bennelong, Swan, Gilmore, Macarthur, Dickson, Hasluck, Flynn, Dawson, Leichardt, Lindsay, Melbourne
Gains: McEwen, LA Trobe.
ALP will win 79 seats.
The rest can fight it out amongst themselves!
Labor: 78
Coalition: 68
Others: 4
ALP 77
Green 1
Ind 3
Lib 69
ALP 76, Greens 1, Indies 3, Coalition 70
even though I think the ALP will win Herbert, La Trobe, McEwen, Paterson and Boothby I think there will be significant losses in Qld with seats like Bonner and the NSW will be a bit of a wipeout.
Agree with you Dave
Lab 78
Coalition 68
Greens 1
Others 3
ALP 84
LNP 63
Ind 3
Labor 81 seats.
Others irrelevant.
My guess
ALP 77
Coalition 69
Greens 1
Independents 3
Labor 78
Coalition 68
Greens 1
Indies 3
TPP Labor 51.8
ALP = 80 seats
Coalition = 66 seats
Greens = 1 seat
Independents = 3 seats
TPP Labor 52.1
ALP = 82 seats
Coalition = 64 seats
Greens = 1 seat
Independents = 3 seats
TPP Labor 52.3
Labor 76
Coalition 71
Independents 3
ALP 51% Coalition 49%
Coalition (notional) gains:
Robertson, Macquarie, Gilmore, Macarthur, Bennelong, Greenway, Lindsay (NSW)
Dickson, Longman, Flynn, Dawson, Forde (Qld)
Corangamite (Vic)
Swan (WA)
Solomon (NT)
Labor (notional) gains:
Paterson (NSW)
McEwen, Latrobe (Vic)
Boothby (SA)
Green gain:
Melbourne
Final score:
ALP 76 Coalition 70 Ind 3 Green 1
Labor 83
Coalation 64
Indep 3
Senate
Greens 5
DLP 2
Labor 81. Greens get the BOP in the senate.
182
I don`t think the DLP will get back into the Senate. They have had their preference fluke. The Greens will get 4-7 new Senators foe a total of 7-10.
77-79 Seats for Labor and three more years of the foxy one. That’s all I care about. 🙂
Bugger! I meant 78!
ALP 79
COAL 67
IND 3
GRN 1
I’ve got no idea, dwelling from comfortable win to barebones. i never listen to Shanas on anything really, but he picked the coup and is going for 78.
I’ll settle for 78 Lab, 68 LNP, 3 Ind, 1 Green.
Ockerguy, very interesting. In which states do you think the DLP will get up?
Just to be different:
ALP 78
COA 67
IND 4
GRN 1
2PP ALP 51.2 COA 48.8
ALP will hang on in a swag of marginals in NSW and Qld by knife edges, but lose some on postals etc. Julia Gillard will try to declare herself winner tonight but Abbott will not concede.
I haven’t got time to go through the list individually (might do so after polls close but before results?).
In SA Libs will lose Boothby and retain Sturt where Pyne’s vote will buck the trend and he will get a tiny swing to him.
ALP retain Solomon in NT and gain McEwen and Latrobe in Vic . No change in Tas.
Senate: Greens to stun everyone and get ACT for a total of 8. FF to get last seat in WA and SA (I hope I’m wrong there) but that’s it.
Bowman to go Coalition by 990 votes.
Sex Party to get 2% – 3% in lower house and outpoll Democrats and FF in most seats.
ALP Gains:
VIC – McEwen
LIB-NAT gains:
QLD – Dickson, Herbert, Longman, Flynn, Dawson, Forde, Leichardt
NSW – Bennelong, Hughes, Macarthur, Robertson, Gilmore, Macquarie
WA – Hasluck, Swan
Green Gains:
VIC – Melbourne
Greens 1, ALP 73, LIB-NAT 73, Others 3.
Greens to win a Senate spot in each state, narrowly missing out in ACT.
I meant to add Solomon to LIB-NAT…
Greens 1, ALP 72, LIB-NAT 74, Others 3
Senate interesting. Good chance of 3 Lab and 1 Green each in Tas and Vict.
Pretty certain 3/3 split in other states. Would think Greens likely to win a seat in WA, Qld and NSW because of lower Labor vote but possibly missing out in SA because Labor could get around 3 quotas. ACT close for second spot Libs/Greens but suspect Libs.
[Whatever the outcome, insiders say recriminations are inevitable.
“This could be the end for the [Labor] NSW Right, federally,” said ]
Oh please God yes!
So everyones saying a hung Parliament?
I expect a hung parliament with Independants siding with labor due to them wining the popular vote and some sweetners.
In SA: Status Quo.
TAS: Status Quo.
NT: Soloman. Labor Loss: So Liberal gain 1.
VIC: La Trobe will be held by Lib, Melbourne won by Greens and McEwan: Liberal loss . Overall- green gain of 1 and ALP 1
WA: 2 Labor loses- Hasluck and Swan.- Liberal gain 2
QLD: Labor to lose Dickson, Herbert, Flynn, Petrie, Dawson and Leichhardt. Labor Lose 6.
NSW:Labor to lose Macarthur, Macquarie, Bennelong ( Goodbye Maxine McKew :), Robertson, Lindsay and Gilmore: Labor lose 6 seats.
ACT: Eden Manaro held by Labor, no other change.
73 Labor.
73 Liberal
1 Greens
3 Ind.
Better get in before 6pm. Also swaying between a 1990 close or a 1993 surprise pull away. Nationwide ~1% swing away from ALP 2PP sounds about right.
Going with ALP net -2 outside of Qld & NSW (losses in WA/NT/Vic offset by gains in Vic and possibly SA)
NSW: have to pick something between ALP -4 and ALP -7. Lets go -5
Qld: something between ALP -3 and -7. Thinking -5 also.
From notional 88 that leaves ALP with 76, Grn 1, Ind 3 and Coalition 70.
An appropriate slap in the face leading to right faction cleanout, but not to the point of having Tone in the lodge. ie, the right result.
Will be holding thumbs for Maxine – she would be an unfortunate loss
ITEP
DLP to win a senate seat in Queensland and VIC.
In vic DLP can win with 2.85 and FF 3.% and ON .05%, on anthony Greens calculator try it
In Queensland DLP can win with 3.5%, while FF need 6+% to win
ITEP
DLP to win a senate seat in Queensland and VIC.
In vic DLP can win with 2.85 and FF 3.% and ON .05%, on anthony Greens calculator try it
In Queensland DLP can win with 3.5%, while FF need 6+% to win
Better Late than never I hope…
All based on notational seats.
NSW ALP to lose 6 (Macarthur, Macquarie, Gilmore, Robertson, Bennelong, Lindsay
TPP Swing 2.75% to LNP
QLD ALP to lose 5 (Leichardt, Dawson, Dickson, Forde, Longman)
Note:Hold Flynn & Herbert
Swing 3.0% to LNP
Vic – ALP to gain McEwen & La Trobe. Lose Melbourne
Swing to ALP 1.6%
SA – ALP to gain Boothby
Swing 2.0%
WA – ALP to lose Swan & Hasluck
Swing TO LIB 1.0%
Tas & Territories -No change.
New Parliament – ALP 77, IND 3, GRN 1, LNP 69
NP to gain O’Connor