Yesterday, the Australian Electoral Commission performed an act which in a rational world would have excited no interest. Since last weekend the commission has featured a “national two party preferred result” on the front page of its Virtual Tally Room, which has assumed tremendous psychological interest as Labor’s margin has steadily eroded from 0.6 per cent to 0.4 per cent. However, the tally had a flaw which biased it in Labor’s favour: there were no Labor-versus-Coalition figures available from strongly conservative Kennedy, Lyne, New England or O’Connor, where the notional two-candidate preferred counts conducted on election night involved independents. This was only balanced out by left-wing Melbourne, where Labor and the Greens were correctly identified as the front-running candidates for the notional count. For whatever reason, the AEC decided yesterday to level the playing field by excluding seats where the notional preference count candidates had been changed since election night, which in each case meant left-wing seats where the Liberals had finished third to the Greens (Batman and Grayndler) or Andrew Wilkie (Denison). The result was an instant 0.4 per cent drop in Labor’s score, reducing them to a minuscule lead that was soon rubbed out by further late counting.
In fact, very little actually changed in yesterday’s counting, which saw a continuation of the slow decline in the Labor total that is the usual pattern of late counting. The media, regrettably, has almost entirely dropped the ball on this point. Mark Simkin of the ABC last night reported that Labor’s lead had been eradicated by the “latest counting”, as opposed to an essentially meaningless administrative decision. Lateline too informed us that Labor’s two-party vote had “collapsed”, and Leigh Sales’ opening question to Julie Bishop on Lateline was essentially an invitation to gloat about the fact. Most newspaper accounts eventually get around to acknowledging the entirely artificial nature of the 50,000-vote reversal in Labor’s fortunes, but only after reporting in breathless tones on the removal of votes that will eventually be put back in.
The reality is that nobody knew who had the lead on the two-party vote yesterday morning, and nothing happened in the day to make anybody any the wiser. The Prime Minister equally had no idea on election night when she made her ill-advised claim to the two-party majority mantle. Only when all seats have reported Labor-versus-Coalition counts, which is probably still a few weeks away, will we be able to say for sure. The best we can do at present is to construct a projection based on the votes counted and our best assumptions as to how the gaps in the vote count data will be filled when all the figures are in.
At present we have completed “ordinary” polling day totals for all electorates and advanced counts of postal votes in most cases, but there has been no progress yet on absent or pre-poll votes in roughly half. Where counting of any of these three categories has been conducted, I have projected the party results on to the expected total of such votes (derived from the “declaration vote scrutiny progress” for absent and pre-poll votes, and from the number of applications for postal votes discounted by 16 per cent as per experience from 2007). Where no counting of a particular category has been conducted, I have compared the parties’ 2007 vote share in that category with their ordinary vote share, and applied that difference to the ordinary vote from this election. For example, the 2007 Liberal two-party vote in Canberra was 7.19 per cent higher than their ordinary vote share, so their 40.54 per cent ordinary vote at the current election has been used to project an absent vote share of 47.73 per cent.
For Batman, Grayndler and Denison, I have used the figures from the two-party Labor-versus-Liberal counts that were conducted in these seats from ordinary votes on election night, calculated the swing against the ordinary vote in 2007 and projected it over the expected absent, pre-poll and postal totals. For Melbourne, New England and Kennedy, where no Labor-versus-Coalition figures are available, I have used preference shares derived from the Labor-versus-Coalition counts from the 2007 election to determine the swing on ordinary votes, and projected that swing through the other categories. It’s with Lyne and O’Connor that things get crude, as we have no case study of how Rob Oakeshott’s or Wilson Tuckey’s preferences split between Labor and Nationals candidates. For O’Connor, which has at least been a Labor-Liberal-Nationals contest at successive elections, I have crudely arrived at a 7.9 per cent swing against Labor derived from the primary vote swing plus moderated by a 70 per cent share of the swing in favour of the Greens. The best I could think to do for Lyne was average the two-party swings from the neighbouring electorates, producing a 5.14 per cent swing against Labor.
Plug all that in and here’s what you get:
Labor 6,313,736 (50.02 per cent)
Coalition 6,307,924 (49.98 per cent)
In other news, Andrew Wilkie says the two-party vote total is “not relevant” in determining which party he will back. Good for him.
UPDATE: An Essential Research poll has it at 50-50, which is “unchanged” – I’m not sure if this is in comparison with the election result or a previously unpublished Essential result from a week ago. Basically no change on preferred prime minister. UPDATE 2: The 50-50 from last week was indeed an unpublished Essential result from their rolling two-week average, which they understandably felt was not worth publishing under the circumstances.
#594
Can a challenge be made before the seat is declared ?
Shouldnt Boothy be taken out of Tone’s 72 whilst this is being sorted. THAT would be nice!
george
you are just twice as slow as triton
who share the name with a nuclear sub, sitting in the bottom of the ocean
[Centrebet have re-opened the federal election market.
It seems to reflect the bi-polar mood of the nation. Labor is now $3.10 (out from $2.50) and coalition is $1.35 (in from $1.50).]
Which means Jack Shizen.
[The vote from the 3000 was 1600 Lib and 1400 ALP, so if you transfer 1600 lib vote to ALP, the led is viola 200]
Except the libs would be 1600 less as well. so the lead would be -1600… Or 1400-3000
[The vote from the 3000 was 1600 Lib and 1400 ALP, so if you transfer 1600 lib vote to ALP, the led is viola 200]
You are forgetting that they’ve excluded those 3000 votes because they can’t be trusted; therefore you cannot know how how many votes went to each candidate.
[Why hold a by-election when it did not affect the result? You lot need to stop grasping hysterically at straws.]
You are yet to produce the arithmetic that proves that it can’t affect the result.
How much of the betting is informed by the MSM spin, including today’s 2PP crap?
BTW Gillard very impressive at press club, but somehow gets lost in translation when the MSM report it
ok i mucked up my own initial numbers there a bit, but regardless, my method is right
parity bit, good point 🙂
Andrew
Julia has to impress the indies and Wilkie more than anyone else right now.
[dovif
Posted Tuesday, August 31, 2010 at 2:41 pm | Permalink
Psepho
I am just making the point that how can you have a right wing party (ALP) in thee “United” Left
As I have said before, if Turnbull was leading the Liberals, they would be to the left of the ALP]
Dovif, I disagree. I think both parties are relatively centrist on a global scale. E.g. the Libs don’t think that Medicare is a socialist plot.
There has been increased public demand for a government to be statist over the alst decade (e.g. govt paying for sports equipment) and in this election there has been a rise in populism.
593 Triton
Agree with you on the point about how the CoDR would make a decision. But realistically speaking, those 3000 votes would have to break 2:1 to Dignance to make up the difference.
Personnaly I feel that there should be another ballot in Boothby – the sanctity of the ballot has been severely compromised. It would be an unfortunate precedent to set to say ‘it’s probable that the outcome would not have been affected, so it’s OK to have a blemished ballot’. And if the 3k papers are excluded, I’d be REALLY p*ssed off if one of ’em were mine. And it will have a financial impact on all the parties involved – small but the principle is there.
Gary
[ Which means Jack Shizen.
]
Dumb ass. It means a things. it means that the feeling in the electorate is that Abbott will win. You need to think dude, instead of spitting out one-liners. But then again you may be genetically incapable of thinking outside your own little box. You are a disgrace.
I think ALP is great odds
The thing is Julia has a lot of incentives to do a deal with the independants, for example to avoid being:
The shortest serving prime minister
the only pm to never won an election
etc
[victoria
Posted Tuesday, August 31, 2010 at 2:48 pm | Permalink
blue-green
what age bracket do you actually refer to when saying “oldies”?]
~50-55 and older. I don’t mean to be disparaging- ‘oldies’ is just my shorthand.
[I read somewhere that there are now so many laws in the usa nobody could ever collate all of them.]
I’ve always like the idea of giving the parliament a limited number of pages of laws they are allowed to have on the books. Once you hit that number, you have to remove or simplify an old law if you want to add a new one…
William or someone else, I am assuming that even though Corangamite is shown as a close seat on the AEC website, it is most likely to be held on to by the ALP?. As it stands the ALP have a 735 vote lead with 94.41% counted. Enough?
[Eventually, if you cannot get your disable kid into hospital, it is your own bloody fault, sell your house and get him in yourself ….. wait ….. they have already said that]
I think we have become a little too precious. The point was the father was bitching over not being able to pay $350 over a two year time frame.
If that was the case then hell yeah, why couldn’t they forego something to raise that money over two years.
Bet they have a new car & all the latest gadgets.
I see & hear this petty type of arguement all the time. Little boy I know needs speech therapy. His parents say they can’t afford it. Guess what? They eat out regularly. Go to the cinemas. Take holidays by the coast regularly. Buy designer pets etc…..
It may not have been politically correct but a fair call.
[E.g. the Libs don’t think that Medicare is a socialist plot.]
You mean the Libs don’t SAY that they think Medicare is a socialist plot…
Bob Katter and ‘stability’:
In a debate about creating a new separate state of north Queensland, Katter descibed his desire for the north to escape the “blood-sucking establishment of the south”?
Now that is pretty offensive. And this man talks about his concerns for ‘stability’ while he wields power in a new government?
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/north-vows-to-pursue-state-split-20100831-14di0.html
PS, by the way, we have no way of knowing that The final result cannot be changed by that box of votes except that the given number might be able to be construed from the numbers of names ruled out during the balloting.
[cud chewer
Posted Tuesday, August 31, 2010 at 2:46 pm | Permalink
blue green what that points to is the dire need to correct the underlying idea – that despite all evidence to the contrary that the tories are better with money. I’m not sure you can fix that in older minds, but you can sure prevent it taking hold in the 20somethings.]
The ‘we spent money to save jobs’ line did nothing for those who are retired and had their savings reduced. I think the 20-somethings are securely placed in the relative-left. Although neither party directly focussed any policy effort towards this group. I think a ‘Young-voters in Australia’ NGO would be a useful addition to the lobbyist scene.
Were the ballots tampered with? Is it possible that many were altered in favour of the incumbent?
We don’t seem to have a clear narrative of what actually happened.
sportingbet $3.00 alp. That is really strange. hope its not inside knowledge. almost certainly msm spin.
[Dumb ass. It means a things. it means that the feeling in the electorate is that Abbott will win. You need to think dude, instead of spitting out one-liners. But then again you may be genetically incapable of thinking outside your own little box. You are a disgrace.]
So? For 99% of the election lead up the markets thought that ALP would romp it in. The markets are affected by a multitude of things … mostly guesses.
[592 leftwingpinko
Posted Tuesday, August 31, 2010 at 2:48 pm | Permalink
These Oldies must still be doing ok if they have been travelling?]
[Perhaps before the GFC they travelled by Learjet.]
I would think the majority of Australians travel OS at some stage in their life. There might be some that never do, but not many as a proportion.
[blue-green
what age bracket do you actually refer to when saying “oldies”?
~50-55 and older. I don’t mean to be disparaging- ‘oldies’ is just my shorthand.]
Hi blue_green and Victoria
I’ve been out and just catching upon the comments re Julia in Press Club.
The question about age bracket is, I believe, becoming more important as the community lives longer. Lumping all from 50 to 100 in one bracket is no longer rational.
Example – the 50-55 group are more likely to have super than the over-70s. At over 70, anyone with super is probably upper middle class or business and will be Lib. The rest are pensioner poor.
Example – my sister is baby boomer and over 60, but has quite different attitudes (and finances) to brother 67 non-baby boomer.
I’d like to see more attention paid in surveys to the differences in the older decades.
Dee
There is no clear narrative of what has happened with that box of votes, only that they were inapproriately handled. That is obviously why they have been deducted from overall count in that seat.
Apeman
Yeah, didn’t you know that the farmer in North Queensland is doing so well, that they are subsidising the South Queensland people. that is why Katter wants more money for his electorate from the blood sucking South Queensland people
I think the talk of left/right wing does not apply to Katter, he is in a category all by himself,
[pithicus
Posted Tuesday, August 31, 2010 at 3:07 pm | Permalink
sportingbet $3.00 alp. That is really strange. hope its not inside knowledge. almost certainly msm spin.]
Bob Katter leaks he will support the Coalition. ALP odds skyrocket. He puts on massive wager on ALP. Signs accord with Gillard. Becomes Speaker. Nice earner.
Have I mentioned I don’t like electoral gambling?
[Dumb ass. It means a things. it means that the feeling in the electorate is that Abbott will win. You need to think dude, instead of spitting out one-liners. But then again you may be genetically incapable of thinking outside your own little box. You are a disgrace.]
Well, you’ve won me overs. That’s was the bestest arguments evar!
lizzie
you make some interesting points. I know people whose retirement funds were affected by GFC, but they did not punish Labor for it. They understood that it was a global collaspe that had nothing to do with Labor Policy.
613 dovif
[the only pm to never won an election]
When exactly did William McMahon win an election?
victoria
That describes my 91 year old mother who is Lab to her bootstraps (but she’s also intelligent 🙂
[lizzie
Posted Tuesday, August 31, 2010 at 3:07 pm | Permalink
blue-green
what age bracket do you actually refer to when saying “oldies”?
~50-55 and older. I don’t mean to be disparaging- ‘oldies’ is just my shorthand.
Hi blue_green and Victoria
I’ve been out and just catching upon the comments re Julia in Press Club.
The question about age bracket is, I believe, becoming more important as the community lives longer. Lumping all from 50 to 100 in one bracket is no longer rational.
Example – the 50-55 group are more likely to have super than the over-70s. At over 70, anyone with super is probably upper middle class or business and will be Lib. The rest are pensioner poor.
Example – my sister is baby boomer and over 60, but has quite different attitudes (and finances) to brother 67 non-baby boomer.
I’d like to see more attention paid in surveys to the differences in the older decades]
I agree that there are lots of nuances in that age bracket. But at that number ~50, surveys seems to diverge massively on positions on issues like climate change and asylum seekers; and also on voting intention.
blue_green@629
It’s funnier if you sub in Wilkie…
lizzie
your mum is a smart woman!
Here we go! In knew I’d read this somewhere 🙂
[“In the event of a lower house dead-heat, MPs shall take general guidance on the electoral mood and general public ‘vibe’ from the upper house result”]
Halsbury “On Hung Parliaments”
[William or someone else, I am assuming that even though Corangamite is shown as a close seat on the AEC website, it is most likely to be held on to by the ALP?. As it stands the ALP have a 735 vote lead with 94.41% counted. Enough?]
The Libs have chased down 149 votes in Corangamite with the last 4206 added. They have only about 2500 to go with which to chase down the last 735. My projection is for Labor to win by 508. However, if the remaining postal votes are as favourable for Liberal as the last batch, that will come down to 368.
dovif
Julia Gillard has already surpassed Francis Michael Forde term which lasted seven days in July 1945.
[sportingbet $3.00 alp. That is really strange.]
How is it strange? It’s always been clear Labor are the outside chance in this.
Betting on this election outcome now is just throwing good money after bad. You cannot do ANY form … thus it is all guesswork. You might as well go to the casino and go to the chocolate wheel.
blue_green
Well, you see, a lot of my friends and previous workmates all over 50, all concerned about climate change etc. There are some of us who have been environmentalists since the 1970s and tend to vote Lab/green. We feel shut out by those who matured after the 80s who are further to the right.
635 Musrum
[He puts on massive wager on ALP.]
Forget the indies – who is London-based Pakistani “businessman” Mazhar Majeed backing?
Any news on when Wilkie will declare?
And Arthur Faddden – PM for 6 weeks (but longest serving acting PM – nearly 2 years – while Menzies was tarting around Britain between 1949 and 1958.)
jenauthor
maybe these punters have been listening to Neil Mitchell 3aw radio. He said yesterday that he had it on good authority from a Liberal source that Abbott would be PM by Wednesday (tomorrow).
[sportingbet $3.00 alp. That is really strange. hope its not inside knowledge. almost certainly msm spin.]
Probably more like a balancing act on the part of sportingbet. If they took a few long odd bets on the Coalition before the election when they were offering $4, they could be in for a bit of a loss. $3 is obviously over the odds in a two horse race at this stage, so I would assume they are trying to coax some money back onto Labor to narrow both their win and loss margins, whatever the result might be.
I see yahoo news has amended their 2PP story in a very strange way: Gillard says ALP ahead. Huh? Doesnt the AEC say?
blue_green
Shouldn’t have said “matured”, should have said dominated politics.