Moral majority

Yesterday, the Australian Electoral Commission performed an act which in a rational world would have excited no interest. Since last weekend the commission has featured a “national two party preferred result” on the front page of its Virtual Tally Room, which has assumed tremendous psychological interest as Labor’s margin has steadily eroded from 0.6 per cent to 0.4 per cent. However, the tally had a flaw which biased it in Labor’s favour: there were no Labor-versus-Coalition figures available from strongly conservative Kennedy, Lyne, New England or O’Connor, where the notional two-candidate preferred counts conducted on election night involved independents. This was only balanced out by left-wing Melbourne, where Labor and the Greens were correctly identified as the front-running candidates for the notional count. For whatever reason, the AEC decided yesterday to level the playing field by excluding seats where the notional preference count candidates had been changed since election night, which in each case meant left-wing seats where the Liberals had finished third to the Greens (Batman and Grayndler) or Andrew Wilkie (Denison). The result was an instant 0.4 per cent drop in Labor’s score, reducing them to a minuscule lead that was soon rubbed out by further late counting.

In fact, very little actually changed in yesterday’s counting, which saw a continuation of the slow decline in the Labor total that is the usual pattern of late counting. The media, regrettably, has almost entirely dropped the ball on this point. Mark Simkin of the ABC last night reported that Labor’s lead had been eradicated by the “latest counting”, as opposed to an essentially meaningless administrative decision. Lateline too informed us that Labor’s two-party vote had “collapsed”, and Leigh Sales’ opening question to Julie Bishop on Lateline was essentially an invitation to gloat about the fact. Most newspaper accounts eventually get around to acknowledging the entirely artificial nature of the 50,000-vote reversal in Labor’s fortunes, but only after reporting in breathless tones on the removal of votes that will eventually be put back in.

The reality is that nobody knew who had the lead on the two-party vote yesterday morning, and nothing happened in the day to make anybody any the wiser. The Prime Minister equally had no idea on election night when she made her ill-advised claim to the two-party majority mantle. Only when all seats have reported Labor-versus-Coalition counts, which is probably still a few weeks away, will we be able to say for sure. The best we can do at present is to construct a projection based on the votes counted and our best assumptions as to how the gaps in the vote count data will be filled when all the figures are in.

At present we have completed “ordinary” polling day totals for all electorates and advanced counts of postal votes in most cases, but there has been no progress yet on absent or pre-poll votes in roughly half. Where counting of any of these three categories has been conducted, I have projected the party results on to the expected total of such votes (derived from the “declaration vote scrutiny progress” for absent and pre-poll votes, and from the number of applications for postal votes discounted by 16 per cent as per experience from 2007). Where no counting of a particular category has been conducted, I have compared the parties’ 2007 vote share in that category with their ordinary vote share, and applied that difference to the ordinary vote from this election. For example, the 2007 Liberal two-party vote in Canberra was 7.19 per cent higher than their ordinary vote share, so their 40.54 per cent ordinary vote at the current election has been used to project an absent vote share of 47.73 per cent.

For Batman, Grayndler and Denison, I have used the figures from the two-party Labor-versus-Liberal counts that were conducted in these seats from ordinary votes on election night, calculated the swing against the ordinary vote in 2007 and projected it over the expected absent, pre-poll and postal totals. For Melbourne, New England and Kennedy, where no Labor-versus-Coalition figures are available, I have used preference shares derived from the Labor-versus-Coalition counts from the 2007 election to determine the swing on ordinary votes, and projected that swing through the other categories. It’s with Lyne and O’Connor that things get crude, as we have no case study of how Rob Oakeshott’s or Wilson Tuckey’s preferences split between Labor and Nationals candidates. For O’Connor, which has at least been a Labor-Liberal-Nationals contest at successive elections, I have crudely arrived at a 7.9 per cent swing against Labor derived from the primary vote swing plus moderated by a 70 per cent share of the swing in favour of the Greens. The best I could think to do for Lyne was average the two-party swings from the neighbouring electorates, producing a 5.14 per cent swing against Labor.

Plug all that in and here’s what you get:

Labor 6,313,736 (50.02 per cent)
Coalition 6,307,924 (49.98 per cent)

In other news, Andrew Wilkie says the two-party vote total is “not relevant” in determining which party he will back. Good for him.

UPDATE: An Essential Research poll has it at 50-50, which is “unchanged” – I’m not sure if this is in comparison with the election result or a previously unpublished Essential result from a week ago. Basically no change on preferred prime minister. UPDATE 2: The 50-50 from last week was indeed an unpublished Essential result from their rolling two-week average, which they understandably felt was not worth publishing under the circumstances.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,640 comments on “Moral majority”

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  1. Why do you put so much credence on Julia’s comments. Do you really think that the Libs would sit back now if she hadn’t said what she said and play fair? They will take any angle they can to pressure for a win. And , to be honest, so would Labor. The media are doing no more or less than they done all year.

    It sucks but if it meant anything then Beasley would have had a turn as PM. And he didn’t. The independents know this. The pressure they are under must be immense.

    My earlier concerns about Wilkie have not been pacified. That list of issues was naive and arrogant at the same time. I wonder if having dinner with WOK helped him see the bigger picture.

  2. Andrew, so if Wilkie goes with Gillard you think the rural independents will feel bound to go with Labor? Well we’ll see 🙂

    Did the Government present their parliamentary reform agenda yesterday? Or is that happening today?

  3. Dr Good

    Actually as Williams article said, the counting of Postal and Prepoll (which favours Liberals) and Absentees (which facours Labor) had led to a reductions of the 2PP of .2% from the ALP, which clearly show the late count trending toward the Liberals

  4. dovif, you know and I know that the 2PP will be very tight either way. No party has a majority of seats. You will note that us Laborites here have not being banging on about the 2PP when Labor was ahead. Votes on the floor of the house will decide this, not the 2PP and hopefully not the MSM. But I do think your side is being most unwise in their public demands for the indies to back them

  6. dovif,

    I think you should be worried about the number of backflips that Abbott will do, rather than 2PP to win support for the indies.

  8. [Andrew
    Posted Tuesday, August 31, 2010 at 8:23 am | Permalink
    my say, Gillard is yet to be proven wrong on the 2PP. Why cant we and MSM must wait before throwing dirt at her? Didnt hear much criticism of Brandis and Minchin when they proclaimed the 2PP on election night than Labor took the lead. Its bias, pure and simple

    God I wish reform of media ownership was on the indie wishlist]

    andrew me to, i think if we get there with Wilkie he is the man to talk to.

    what goes on in the mind of juno what drives them dont they as ordinary people want the best for their children. one day it will come out in the wash only hope you and i and all of us here live to see it,

  9. Gweneth is it very hard to read at the moment. If the indies are genuinely undecided, nothing Abbott or his party has done in the past week has helped him. And I wonder how significantly the personalities of the leaders will figure in their decision?

  11. I would be amazed if legit polling didn’t show alp 2pp to be in the 52-54 range now after the costings crap and childish bully tactics from coal.
    Where are the polls anyway? Have they been doing any?

  12. ltep – that is assuming WOK *will* vote as a bloc.

    But what if they don’t? I have a little scenario for you (and others) to chew on.

    If Wilkie throws his support behind Labor – and given his history then I just can’t see him supporting the Libs – then Labor (plus Bandt) is on 74, Libs on 72.

    Given that Katter has said that if Kev was ALP leader then his support would be a lay down misere, I find it hard to believe that this was entirely based on who was leader of the party, rather than on any issue of policy. The fact that he said it publicly would also show he has no fear of any backlash from his supposedly conservative electorate for supporting Labor. He has also made no secret of the fact he has an intense dislike of many people on the Coalition side of the fence. And that is before we get to threatening phone calls and his wishlist, top of which is a major plank of Labor’s election campaign, the NBN. Factoring all this in, I find it really hard to see Katter supporting anyone but Labor. If that comes to fruition, then Labor are now on 75, Libs on 72.

    Now we come to Oakeshott, whose family, we have learned, has also been subjected to abusive and threatening phone calls from Coaltion members and who, again, has a wishlist on top of which is the NBN. Also, other things on the wishlist appear to come more easily to Labor than the Coalition. And, again, there is no love lost between him and members of the Coalition which would, you think, make working with them very difficult. You’d have to say on those measures that he would be favouring Labor. So ALP now on 76, Libs on 72.

    As for Windsor: well, he was the one making the most pro-ALP noises from day one. He has also been the one to express the most displeasure with the Coalition in terms of their behaviour since the election and especially on policy terms. I would find it hard to believe that he would support the Libs after all that. ALP on 77, Libs on 72.

    Crook will, I think, go with the Coalition in the end, despite his refusal to be “included” as a formal part of the Coalition. My belief is that he saw the writing on the wall on election night and realised he might be in a unique position to extract a bit extra for his electorate as well as himself. But he will revert to type when push comes to shove. ALP 77, Coalition 73

    Clearly a working majority, assuming it holds.

    But given how completely far out my election prediction was, I fully expect to see a Coalition Government installed by this time next week 😆

  14. No one seems to talk about the crazy distributional gerrymander in this country. In WA, the ALP with preferences won about 44% and got 3 seats from 15. In QLD, they won about 45% with preferences and got 8 from 30 seats. Compare that to VIC. There the coalition also got about 45% with preferences and got 14 of the 37 seats.

    As for Julie Bishop’s claim that the coalition has more seats in the Senate: bosh. We’re talking about this election, not the last. This time, the ALP and Greens combined got 48.5 % of votes, the coalition in all forms got 38%.

    Now here’s the doozey: in the Reps, the Greens polled 11.4% for 1 seat, the Nats polled 3.7% for 7 seats. Is that a gerrymander or what?

  15. You could be right chinda. At least I can agree with you on Crook ;). Sources inform me he was spotted looking very chummy out to lunch with his Nationals colleagues yesterday. I can’t see him splitting under any circumstances.

    Incidentally, there are now no female members of The Nationals in the House of Representatives (2 in the Senate from 1 July 2011).

  17. [William makes a very valid point. I was stunned last night when I saw various sections of the media running with this story.]

    I am not stunned that the media pick this up at all. deep analysis of issues forget it. BER scheme etc they are only interested in skimming the surface and getting the gotcha moment. the great outcome here is essentially no one has won the 2PP vote so it hardly says Abbott has a moral majority secondly the independents do not care about this in their deliberations. as usual the media are playing the politics of the past when this could somehow be used to influence the masses not so with the Indi’s

  19. Here we are talking waffle about which way numbers fall. After working with crooked bankers and actuaries for years preparing compliance numbers, I can tell you they ALL select numbers that suit the story they want told. Running these types of numbers is just a whole lot of Hot Air.

    Nothing has changed. We are all still waiting for the three wise men to make their decision. We are all still waiting for someone to front up to the GG with the prerequisite 76 seats.

    What I want to know is why the big story has been side-stepped? Why isn’t everyone out there trying to get a look at Tony’s Coalition numbers? I believe that if he wants a chance at stable government he should make these Treasury run numbers public reading BEFORE the decision is announced.

  20. ltep went –

    With all that said, an extremely foolish call for Gillard to have mentioned the 2PP figure at any stage when it was clear this could change and a final result would not be known (probably) until well after the independents had made their decision.

    Mesma is now making a song and a dance about the Coal having TPP lead. So exactly the same comment you make applies to the Coalition 🙂

    You can’t have it both ways.

  21. With all that said, an extremely foolish call for Gillard to have mentioned the 2PP figure at any stage when it was clear this could change and a final result would not be known (probably) until well after the independents had made their decision.

    Lateline also said the Coalition had “leapt ahead” in the 2PP count. A few hundred votes out of 11 million is a “leap”?

    This all goes to illustrate the basic law of media in Australia: the slightest hiccup from Labor, or something associated with Labor (in this case the 2PP) gets amplified into nation shattering significance.

    Liberals can ring up Indies’ family homes and try to frighten their kids, threaten the Indies themselves with abusive language, attempt to humiliate them on TV and they get a free pass. “Oh well, politics is so robust in Australia,” we are told. “Boys will be boys,” etc. etc.

    This sensitivity of the media to hiccups on the Labor side is one of the reasons Labor politicians have to be so careful with what they say. It adds up to a kind of enforced reticence to not only say anything, but in the end to do anything. Labor proposes to change a tax or some rules or regulations and withing 24 hours the OO will have a “typical young couple” on their front page saying, “Labor just lost my vote because of policy change ‘X'”. This can be applied to virtually any Labor initiative.

    Meanwhile Abbott backflips on his backflips, turns, pikes and twists on what he once told us were his fundamental, immutable beliefs (e.g. PPL and increasing taxes, especially assymmetrically to burden only some companies) and we’re still resoundingly informed that he is “Straight Talkin’ Tone” or “At least you know where he stands.” Even Abbott’s admission that he doesn’t often mean what he says, or believe in it, is turned into the virtue of “honesty”: “Well, at least he admits he’s a liar.”

    He dodges putting his costings in to Treasury – based on a law his party bnrought in to ensure Budget honesty – and it’s allowed to pass with virtually no comment, just reported deadpan without speculation as to why he did this, or more correctly, the pat excuse is swallowed whole: “Treasury is corrupt.”

    Meanwhile Julia is forensically examined – from earlobes to footwear – and found wanting.

    The Coalition, especially the Libs have a “born to rule” mentality and confidence borne of the easy ride they get with the media. They can say “xxx will always be lower or higher under them” (as the case applies) and get away with the chutzpah as if everybody knows it’s automatically true.

    Labor, far more self-conscious and nervous, barely utters word in its own defence that isn’t ripped apart and workshopped in a hundred media offices around the nation, eventually to be mocked for more “Labor spin”.

    I don’t know how the grip that the media has on politics in Australia can be broken. Even Jesus was crucified by a mob who saw him as a threat to their self-interest and political positions (as “official” religious commentators), so what chance has Labor?

  22. I think the sad and depressing thing about the MSM’s sudden interest in the 2PP and their flawed reporting of the isuue is that they do know the real reasons for the change but they just don’t care. When the 2PP turns back into labors favor it won’t be reported or if so a few lines on page 345 of the Age, OO and a brief one sentence report on ABC. This is the reality of 2010 Australia. If labor is returned this will be what they are faced with for the next three years. That is why I believe one of the first things that Julia should do is return responsibilty to the auditor general for decisions regarding government advertising. Work with them and then advertise the hell out of the punters with legitimate, auditor general approved advertising. Straight plain explanations of their policy acrosss all media and bugger any uproar from the MSM and the coalition.

  23. Just by the way, Minchin made the same claim on the ABC about the 2PP when the Libs were actually briefly leading on this measure on election night. Gillard wasn’t alone in getting ahead of things.

  25. [betting limits on poker machines were his main demands … Gay marriage]

    Odd that Wilkie doesn’t see the inherent contradiction.

    Both are cases of I don’t like it so you can’t have it policies. Sure there are problems with the whole (near monopoly) poker machines thing; a raft of issues on peripheral conditions reportedly imposed on venues; the use of credit cards & ATM’s available at venues. But Wilkie’s & Xenephon’s main gripes seem to concentrate on a small minority of problem gamblers that some politicians & the media love to blow-up as primarily pensioners sucking on the government’s teat with no real evidence other than that OAPs like to play them (but with no evidence that they are problem gamblers, much less the majority of them).

    In RW militant religious heartland (like my area) the same I hate it so no one can have it rent-a-crowds turn out for anti-brothels, anti-pubs & clubs, anti-pokies (& other forms of gambling) demos as turn out for anti-abortion, anti-water-recycling, anti-gay-marriage. In fact, we have a few conservative (very) political wannabes who take the lead in organising the turn-outs, have for over a decade.

    I spent quite a bit of my working life in schools & in positions which meant I had to make decisions which involved: Do we make rules which limit the privileges of the vast majority because a small minority flout the freedom & bring the school into disrepute; or do we reward the majority and make sure the whole community understands the reason for our decision? We decided to do the latter.

    The carnage, personal & financial cost wrought by a small minority of drivers who flout the rules is hugely greater than that wrought by gambling, and would be greatly reduced if the only motor vehicles we could use where those tiny “gymboots on wheels” city cars; yet the justification for them over Aussies’ beloved “muscle” cars is their much lower manufacture & fuel carbon footprints, not a much lowered hooning & accident rate.

    Intrinsically, if the problem is the personal & financial devastation on individuals & their families, then the smart thing would be to legislate “gymboots on wheels” city cars, with added “carbon footprint” reduction as a bonus, before pokies legislation. But, let’s face it, that ain’t gunna happen!

    It’s to that difference between cars & pokies, democratic freedom & gay marriage/ RU 486 that I object.

  26. ABC Radio national report wasn’t too bad – actually mentioned 8 seats were missing and Bob Brown’s view that the figure was therefore “meaningless”.

  28. [Arrrggghhhh!! The gorgeous Sophie Mirabella on Agenda.
    It’s definitely time to leave.]

    Yes she is a nasty piece of work isn’t she? Talking to Craig Emerson like he was a 5-year-old and speaking utter rot at times. She and Tony Abbott belong together.

  30. I think the role the msm have played in this election is truly appalling. Cross media ownership laws need to be revisited and media ownership needs to be given a strict set of guidelines to adhere to during an election campaign.

  32. Some posts in the previous thread and this one:
    [I used ti resoect (sic) Michelle Grattan]

    [So grattan admits both that seats have been excluded and that labor is projected to win the 2PP. But she has a feeling in her waters that the coalition win the 2PP so she’s going with it.]

    [Also note that Grattan claims that late counting will favour the Liberals. Again this is ill informed.]

    It needs to be pointed out that the article was written by Michelle Grattan and Tim Colebatch. Colebatch is the one who has been analysing the voting numbers in previous articles, so I think that part of the article is highly likely to be his.

  34. VERY interesting article in today’s AFR.
    How many people knew that the Electrical Trades Union was a donor to Bob Katter’s campaign ? 🙂

  35. One thing for certain, Gillard will get smashed on this at NPC today 2 minutes ago via web

    Gillard will correctly point out that the count is not yet finished, that the liberals are now making the same claim about 2PP, but that will be swept aside. These things don’t apply to the *born to rule* mob.

  36. Regardless of how it is spun, the reality is that this vote is so close to a dead heat in 2PP terms that NEITHER side has won on that grounds. To claim “victory” when the margin is less than 0.02% 2PP is absurd. Anyone who tries to do it will deserve to be ridiculed. It would be far wiser, and more credible, to focus on policy alignment with the independents.

  37. Dovif

    Indeed the 2pp for ALP has gone down 0.2% recently. This is because the majority of postals have been counted. However, the absentees in many seared are yet to be counted. So the drop will slow.

    I understand that Antony Green had a good model which predicted 50.3% as the final result and he took into account the expected variations on postals and absentees.

    I expect that he will end up being pretty close.

  38. BK – haven’t had a chance to read back posts yet but … did you see SophieM on Agenda this morning?

    I is definitely leavin’ this here nest if she is on the front bench!! Unfortunately, she woman typifies everything that is miserable about her type of Liberal woman. Together with the 2 Bishops she gives someone like Judy Moylan a bad name.

    It seems as tho she has a nasty windup key in her backside and the baloney bubbles out when the cameras roll. I guess the remote will be used a lot in the next 3 years.

  39. William: Thanks for this. I too was disappointed to see the report on ABC news last night, and especially when it was repeated again on Lateline. Of all the media outlets, the ABC has no excuse. It has Antony Green on staff, and I can’t for the life of me work out why they don’t make more use of him to inform reporting on polling and electoral-related matters before they go to air.

  40. It is a shame Malcolm Fraser doesn;t have more clout — he nagged out the Australian last night about how they went relentlessly against Labor over the BER unnecessarily and generally said Labor had been a good govt.

    But that won’t event get a peep out of the MSM.

  41. Whether or not the ALP or LIbs are to establish the minority government, the real quagmire will be the next 10 months before the new senators assume office. Will any passage of legislation be possible ? And the pattern of MSM reporting will continure ad nauseum? In short, it looks like a lose/lose outcome for Labor, not matter what the AEC results are.

  42. Dr Good

    Actually most absentee had been received and counted already

    It is the postals (from overseas) that will take time to return, and will be counted in the 2nd week

  43. [As for Julie Bishop’s claim that the coalition has more seats in the Senate: bosh.]

    I laughed when she said that, and then shouted at the TV when Sales refused to challenge her on it.

  48. The press remind me of the ‘match fixing’ allegations of cricket. If they don;t say anything, nothing will be noticed.

    The thing is, the MSM is now drunk on their own illusion of power. i.e. “Look what we did! We got an unelectable candidate elected! Aren’t we powerful! We control Australia! Let’s see how far we can go before someone notices the lies.”

  50. [When is the media going to be held accountable for their appalling standards? No checking was done with respect to this matter. They bring the claims of bias upon themselves with their shoddy (or is it dishonest) work.]

    I thought Malcolm Fraser tried to gloss over his lazy record in Government last night but I gave his kudos for bagging the media and particularly the Murdoch media.

    Maybe we are getting somewhere with this because Tony Windsor virtually said the same with his ‘pen pushers’ writing rubbish comment on Sunday.

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