Yesterday, the Australian Electoral Commission performed an act which in a rational world would have excited no interest. Since last weekend the commission has featured a “national two party preferred result” on the front page of its Virtual Tally Room, which has assumed tremendous psychological interest as Labor’s margin has steadily eroded from 0.6 per cent to 0.4 per cent. However, the tally had a flaw which biased it in Labor’s favour: there were no Labor-versus-Coalition figures available from strongly conservative Kennedy, Lyne, New England or O’Connor, where the notional two-candidate preferred counts conducted on election night involved independents. This was only balanced out by left-wing Melbourne, where Labor and the Greens were correctly identified as the front-running candidates for the notional count. For whatever reason, the AEC decided yesterday to level the playing field by excluding seats where the notional preference count candidates had been changed since election night, which in each case meant left-wing seats where the Liberals had finished third to the Greens (Batman and Grayndler) or Andrew Wilkie (Denison). The result was an instant 0.4 per cent drop in Labor’s score, reducing them to a minuscule lead that was soon rubbed out by further late counting.
In fact, very little actually changed in yesterday’s counting, which saw a continuation of the slow decline in the Labor total that is the usual pattern of late counting. The media, regrettably, has almost entirely dropped the ball on this point. Mark Simkin of the ABC last night reported that Labor’s lead had been eradicated by the “latest counting”, as opposed to an essentially meaningless administrative decision. Lateline too informed us that Labor’s two-party vote had “collapsed”, and Leigh Sales’ opening question to Julie Bishop on Lateline was essentially an invitation to gloat about the fact. Most newspaper accounts eventually get around to acknowledging the entirely artificial nature of the 50,000-vote reversal in Labor’s fortunes, but only after reporting in breathless tones on the removal of votes that will eventually be put back in.
The reality is that nobody knew who had the lead on the two-party vote yesterday morning, and nothing happened in the day to make anybody any the wiser. The Prime Minister equally had no idea on election night when she made her ill-advised claim to the two-party majority mantle. Only when all seats have reported Labor-versus-Coalition counts, which is probably still a few weeks away, will we be able to say for sure. The best we can do at present is to construct a projection based on the votes counted and our best assumptions as to how the gaps in the vote count data will be filled when all the figures are in.
At present we have completed “ordinary” polling day totals for all electorates and advanced counts of postal votes in most cases, but there has been no progress yet on absent or pre-poll votes in roughly half. Where counting of any of these three categories has been conducted, I have projected the party results on to the expected total of such votes (derived from the “declaration vote scrutiny progress” for absent and pre-poll votes, and from the number of applications for postal votes discounted by 16 per cent as per experience from 2007). Where no counting of a particular category has been conducted, I have compared the parties’ 2007 vote share in that category with their ordinary vote share, and applied that difference to the ordinary vote from this election. For example, the 2007 Liberal two-party vote in Canberra was 7.19 per cent higher than their ordinary vote share, so their 40.54 per cent ordinary vote at the current election has been used to project an absent vote share of 47.73 per cent.
For Batman, Grayndler and Denison, I have used the figures from the two-party Labor-versus-Liberal counts that were conducted in these seats from ordinary votes on election night, calculated the swing against the ordinary vote in 2007 and projected it over the expected absent, pre-poll and postal totals. For Melbourne, New England and Kennedy, where no Labor-versus-Coalition figures are available, I have used preference shares derived from the Labor-versus-Coalition counts from the 2007 election to determine the swing on ordinary votes, and projected that swing through the other categories. It’s with Lyne and O’Connor that things get crude, as we have no case study of how Rob Oakeshott’s or Wilson Tuckey’s preferences split between Labor and Nationals candidates. For O’Connor, which has at least been a Labor-Liberal-Nationals contest at successive elections, I have crudely arrived at a 7.9 per cent swing against Labor derived from the primary vote swing plus moderated by a 70 per cent share of the swing in favour of the Greens. The best I could think to do for Lyne was average the two-party swings from the neighbouring electorates, producing a 5.14 per cent swing against Labor.
Plug all that in and here’s what you get:
Labor 6,313,736 (50.02 per cent)
Coalition 6,307,924 (49.98 per cent)
In other news, Andrew Wilkie says the two-party vote total is “not relevant” in determining which party he will back. Good for him.
UPDATE: An Essential Research poll has it at 50-50, which is “unchanged” – I’m not sure if this is in comparison with the election result or a previously unpublished Essential result from a week ago. Basically no change on preferred prime minister. UPDATE 2: The 50-50 from last week was indeed an unpublished Essential result from their rolling two-week average, which they understandably felt was not worth publishing under the circumstances.
The MSM also want Labor in opposition, because they think that’d lead to months of blood letting/destabilisation of Gillard’s leadership etc – all good copy for them.
INSIDERS on SBS tonight is featuring just about all of the independents – might be worth watching.
I’m watching far more of SBS News than I used to previously, because of my disdain at the ABC’s pro-Abbott agenda.
[To claim “victory” when the margin is less than 0.02% 2PP is absurd. Anyone who tries to do it will deserve to be ridiculed. It would be far wiser, and more credible, to focus on policy alignment with the independents.]
Yes, I agree with that. I believe people here pointed to the stupidity of Gillard claiming the 2PP at the time of that press conference, noting that it could come back to bite her as the count progressed. But, for all intents and purposes it’s really a 50/50 result, a tie, which is reflected in the seat count.
[evan14
Posted Tuesday, August 31, 2010 at 9:40 am | Permalink
INSIDERS on SBS tonight is featuring just about all of the independents – might be worth watching.]
Is Ms Middleton still with them
The thing that gets me is “Two Party Preferred”
Labor can only possibly be in front, because, one party is Labor, the other “party” is the Liberal Party, The Country Liberal Party, the Liberal National Party of Queensland, and the National Party (with a dissenting W.A branch). And the ‘Coalition’ kicks up a stink about the idea of Wilkie, the Greens and independents aligning with Labor?!?!?
Wilkie has called for further meetings with Abbott and Gillard today. Katter will pass on a wish list today also. Windsor has noted today he thinks it’s unlikely a decision will be made by the end of this week.
itep
what is your position ?????
La Mirabella is my local member – the shame, the shame. In one of the safest seats in eth country she doesn’t just campaign like that, she carries on all the time like that. I can reprt she is not just like that on camera. I have had the signal pleasure of watching her produce a giant novelty cheque bearing her signature (for the value of a legitimately applied for grant from an arms-length funding body) from her handbag at a community event.
From that day forward she has been known as the Hairy Chequebook in our household.
yeah ONLY 49.9% of people did not support me …. that is a clear mandate
Even in land slide elections, 46% of people does not support the ruling party LOL
itep you just heard that on radio did you, i heard that wilkie said to day or tomorrow
so what station where you listening to
my say, yes Wilkie has said he will make an announcement today or tomorrow.
The rest of my comments come from an AAP story:
[Fellow independent Tony Windsor said he was doubtful a decision that would break the political deadlock would be made before the end of the week.]
Dovif: the 2PP will end up being narrowly in Labor’s favour, so enough with the gloating and triumphalism from your side of politics.
Gillard really is a moron. She has brought this on herself. While the 2PP could end up either way, to make a categorical statement like this just shows that our PM is a fool.
[Last Monday Ms Gillard, pointing to Labor’s lead, urged Mr Abbott to accept its importance. “It is clear that the government has attracted the majority share of the two-party-preferred vote,” Ms Gillard said. “What that means is that the majority of Australians wanted a Labor government.”]
did anyone pick up on Fraser last night on qanda saying in response to comments re leaks that at least one of the leaks did not come from within party, but from other sources?
[Sophie is, in a word, slime.]
jen author – a perfect fit I’d say and she echoes her leader perfectly. She has the mantra and we will hear it forever unfortunately.
dovif – Belinda Neal doesn’t come anywhere close to SM. The performance of Mirrabella in Oppostion was woeful and she will be almost unbearable in Govt. I remember seeing her gloating and cheering madly when Abbott beat Turnbull for leadership so she will be rewarded.
lettter to the editor on line re wilkie people NOT happy.
[did anyone pick up on Fraser last night on qanda saying in response to comments re leaks that at least one of the leaks did not come from within party, but from other sources?]
victoria – Christine Wallace seemed surprised at that. I wonder if that rumour in crikey yesterday was right. A liberal plant in a catering service used by Kev in the PMO.
Julia will be at Press Club today. Silly question, but what is main purpose of her appearance? Is it to advise on state of play? Is it wise since negotiations are still under way?
mercury comments
some one was game enough to say so many of tasmania finances come from the poker machines and we did not vote against the mill. wtte
So he really has to be walking a fine line with tasmanian people, cannot see him wining next time and if he gives us to the libs ……?
victoria, she’s announcing Labor’s parliamentary reform proposals and ‘articulating a case for a Gillard Government’. Lets hope she can do that better than she did during the campaign. 😉
BH
I believed that all along that it these leaks only benefitted the Libs. Therefore it stands to reasons that the leaker would be a Liberal sympathiser. Also, I wonder which leak Fraser is referring to. It suggests one of them, not all. Perhaps, the one re National Security. That leak was to damage both Rudd and Gillard.
[La Mirabella is my local member – the shame, the shame. ]
Holden Back – my sympathies.
Thanks Itep. I did not know purpose of her appearance.
Evan14
Can you point to any post where I have gloated
I have continuously said that the 2PP is meaningless, with people not voting, donkey and invalid votes, and people who probably does not want to preference, but is forced to
I have not even made fun of Gillard’s proclaimation of the led in 2PP, when 3 National seats are excluded from the count … which was the real biase
As for the current count, “estimates” has ALP in front by about .1% and there are still countings to be done (which has favoured Liberals) My hope is that the 2PP is 50/50 with the same vote for each side, which is what they deserved, because the policies of the 2 side are identical
[victoria
Posted Tuesday, August 31, 2010 at 9:53 am | Permalink
Julia will be at Press Club today. Silly question, but what is main purpose of her appearance? Is it to advise on state of play? Is it wise since negotiations are still under way?]
When i saw her do this was it friday she came across as very prime ministerial
not runninga round the country saying any thing like the other lot. If people actualy get to see it i think its good.
[victoria, she’s announcing Labor’s parliamentary reform proposals and ‘articulating a case for a Gillard Government’. Lets hope she can do that better than she did during the campaign. ]
ITEP
Dont you like Julia itep or labor for that matter. ??
you make the most negative statement on this site,. i have taken advice and scroll by
BH
Speaking of Christine Wallace. What did you think of her comments re Malcolm Turnbull. She suggested Julia give him a call. It might have been tongue in cheek, but I have seriously been stewing over whether Malcolm could be convinced with some incentive obviously, to support Labor.
[victoria
Posted Tuesday, August 31, 2010 at 9:55 am | Permalink
Thanks Itep. I did not know purpose of her appearance]
Victoria none of us do. may itep has ask her
Let’s be realistic. The 2pp is largely irrelevant except if it were resounding for either side, say 1%+. However Gillard trumpeted it on election night since everything else seemed to go against her, and now she could be made to look stupid but it’s no more significant than that. It pales into insignificance against her Real Julia comedy, the 150 man/woman talk-fest, the asylum seeker ETS 2 and the Rudd knifing with the 30 second “reconciliation” in Brisbane. How anyone can claim that she is smart or campaigned well is beyond me. Labor should have gone with Shorten or Combet from the start but too late now unfortunately. Labor’s brand has been trashed so if we get a minority government it’ll be a rocky road to rebuild it over 3 years with NSW elections the next big event.
[have seriously been stewing over whether Malcolm could be convinced with some incentive obviously, to support Labor.]
can you imagine the media if that was out and about.??
Mumbles at the Australian
I see that William Bowe and this site gets a mention in the comments section of this article. Also asking where is Anthony Green. He must get so frustrated that ill informed people write in their articles. He is such an expert and I respect him greatly. Great article from him today.
my say
I know you are not happy with Itep’s pessimism, but there is nothing wrong with him expressing the way he sees things, just like everyone else on this blog.
Don’t take it to heart.
No I have no asked Julia Gillard what she’s doing at the press club. I’ve taken it from press reports.
[The Labor leader will front the press club in Canberra on Tuesday to reveal a set of proposals for parliamentary reform designed to appeal to independents whose support is crucial if she has any chance of continuing as prime minister]
Their ABC Backpedalling 🙂
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/31/2998169.htm?section=justin
[Now here’s the doozey: in the Reps, the Greens polled 11.4% for 1 seat, the Nats polled 3.7% for 7 seats. Is that a gerrymander or what?]
No it isn’t. Both are specific-interest parties.
Nats’ vote is concentrated in a small number of geographically large electorates in some states & representation declined with rural population, farm mechanisation & loss of services – it remains more dominant in Q, a very large, very decentralised state, much of which is still primary-producing.
The Greens spread across the continent & islands, with its constituency mainly in Tas. & metropolitan areas; with patchy results even in seats where environmental issues are high-profile; eg Kennedy (Bob Katter Ind): Jess Jones, GRN, 3,057, 4.2%; Maranoa (Bruce Scott LNP) Grant Newson GRN 4,355 5.1; Leichhardt (Warren Entsch) Neville St John-Wood, GRN 6,722 8.9% The two NQ electorates.
Kennedy & Leichhardt are interesting (check their electoral maps), because they SHOULD BE up there with Melbourne & Tassie; the more so since being bored about “the planet” is a resident/visitor hazard: The Cape, Rainforests, The Reef, ag pollutants, urban/tourist development & warming oceans are BIG concerns.
So why does Bob of the Hat get a swing to him and Jess Jones get a lousy 4.2%; why Neville St John-Wood a fifth of Entsch’s primary vote up in Cairns, the Cape & Daintree country? Why Newson only 5.1% in an electorate depending on Green influence to rein in Surat Basin mining and the possible degradation of the GAB through coal-seam gas’s high water use & leakages into the GAB. And don’t blame the voters! Only a bad workman blames his own problems on his equipment.
I thought that was a very interesting remark. It almost creates a sense of paranoia if you believe that there are active Liberal sympathisers in the Public Service. We already know that Grech was one and he leaked specifically to favour the Liberals.
So we can conjure up a conspiracy with the Media which for some reason has been very anti ALP and elements in the Public Service actively favouring the Liberals. But then again it is probably just stuff ups. Which unfortunately Gillard claim that she had the two party preferred vote on election night was one.
[What did you think of her comments re Malcolm Turnbull. She suggested Julia give him a call. ]
victoria – I thought it really cheeky but unlikely. Malcolm will never be content to be a bit player and Labor would probably be a bit strangling for his ambitions. Yet I can’t really see him happy with the Coalition. The Nationals like Truss and Joyce must send shivers up Malcolm’s spine.
I thought Malcolm would be a good leader but he was a disappointment during those months of leadership. I think he and Kev are similar – both extremely intelligent but the kinds of personalities who need to control everything and the glory for themselves.
To me Gillard is a more inclusive person and I think would get the best out of others instead of wanting all the glory to herself.
BTW – impressed by Jessica Rudd last night. She is very much her mother’s daughter and I vote for Therese Rein for PM any time she wants it.
[110 Diogenes
Posted Tuesday, August 31, 2010 at 9:51 am | Permalink
Gillard really is a moron. She has brought this on herself. While the 2PP could end up either way, to make a categorical statement like this just shows that our PM is a foo]
DIOGENES
[do you know what MORON means. oxford ,,, page 512. moron adult,with a mental development of child abount nine.]
may be a good idea to look up the dictionary , before using such words in future.
Labor frontbencher Craig Emerson says his party can give that guarantee because its rules prevent MPs from crossing the floor, while Liberals are free to dissent.
I fail to see how that is a good thing for parliament
ltep is always very frank and objective, and realistic too – he’s no pro-Abbott stooge.
Did Gillard make the 2PP claim on election night? I don’t recall that. I distinctly remember her claiming in in a press conference a couple of days after the election though.
It’d be good for Julia if she could go to the Press Club at lunchtime with Wilkie’s endorsement in the bag, that’d help to counter the battering she’s undoubtably in for from the News Ltd hacks and “Their ABC”. 😉
[131 Frank Calabrese
Posted Tuesday, August 31, 2010 at 10:07 am | Permalink
Their ABC Backpedalling
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/31/2998169.htm?section=justin ]
see they cannot find things our for them selves they have to come here to see or may be some one here told them
Not one for the optimists to read.
Put yourself in this position. You are a member of the Labor Party. You become dismayed at its direction and, perhaps reluctantly, leave to stand as an independent.
A few years on a situation arises where you will have the balance of power. This is your grand chance to moderate a party’s views, to steer it towards grounds you favor – in effect, from your point of view, to save it from itself.
Do you do this for the side of politics from whence you came or for the other side of the spectrum?
I would think the prospect of impacting in what you believe to be a positive way, not only on government, but on the party that you once believed in, but felt had lost its way, would be the far more attractive option.
It is my opinion that the independents are genuine in their efforts to make a balanced decision. However, it will be incredibly hard to overcome what I think is an instinctive desire to fulfil the joint objectives I have outlined.
Given the torrid time these people have been given by the Murdoch media I admire their fortitude in not caving in and will respect their final decision, even though I fear I may be very disappointed by it.
even?
[I believed that all along that it these leaks only benefitted the Libs. Therefore it stands to reasons that the leaker would be a Liberal sympathiser. Also, I wonder which leak Fraser is referring to. It suggests one of them, not all. Perhaps, the one re National Security. That leak was to damage both Rudd and Gillard.]
This is also the one they all ran the hardest on, in spite of the “don’t care” factor in the general community. I remember thinking it was strange that they kept banging on about what was, in practical effect, a fairly trivial issue.
[I fail to see how that is a good thing for parliament]
It is a good thing for stable government, which is what the independents want most. They want the parliament to last three years, which necessarily means sacrificing preferred policy for longevity in some cases.
BH
Yes, Jessica Rudd is her mother’s daughter. They should be mightly proud of her.
[Speaking of Christine Wallace. What did you think of her comments re Malcolm Turnbull. She suggested Julia give him a call. It might have been tongue in cheek, but I have seriously been stewing over whether Malcolm could be convinced with some incentive obviously, to support Labor.]
I would bet London to a Brick that Julia (or a negotiator on her behalf) has had a word in Malcolm’s shell-like. – she would have been crazy not to. I know that Abbott has vaguely promised Malcolm a ministry, but I suspect he never intended to and in this current environment, he would use the hung parliament as an excuse to offer a ministry to an Indie at the expense of Malcolm, expecting Malcolm just to grin and bear it.
I suspect Malcolm knows this as well, and could be enticed to support Labor with an Environmental/Climate Change portfolio, provided he was sitting as an Independent in the parliament, naturally. Given his lack of Liberal Party signage on his election material, he’s a lot less wedded to them than he wants people to think. He’s played his cards very close to his chest since his “return” to politics and I suspect its just because he’s been carefully sniffing the wind, waiting for the right moment to make his move.
[However Gillard trumpeted it on election night since everything else seemed to go against her,]
She did this in response to Abbott’s trumpeting about the primary vote. Tit for tat. Not sensible, I concede, but in the circumstances, quite understandable.
BUT it is of no consequence either way.