Moral majority

Yesterday, the Australian Electoral Commission performed an act which in a rational world would have excited no interest. Since last weekend the commission has featured a “national two party preferred result” on the front page of its Virtual Tally Room, which has assumed tremendous psychological interest as Labor’s margin has steadily eroded from 0.6 per cent to 0.4 per cent. However, the tally had a flaw which biased it in Labor’s favour: there were no Labor-versus-Coalition figures available from strongly conservative Kennedy, Lyne, New England or O’Connor, where the notional two-candidate preferred counts conducted on election night involved independents. This was only balanced out by left-wing Melbourne, where Labor and the Greens were correctly identified as the front-running candidates for the notional count. For whatever reason, the AEC decided yesterday to level the playing field by excluding seats where the notional preference count candidates had been changed since election night, which in each case meant left-wing seats where the Liberals had finished third to the Greens (Batman and Grayndler) or Andrew Wilkie (Denison). The result was an instant 0.4 per cent drop in Labor’s score, reducing them to a minuscule lead that was soon rubbed out by further late counting.

In fact, very little actually changed in yesterday’s counting, which saw a continuation of the slow decline in the Labor total that is the usual pattern of late counting. The media, regrettably, has almost entirely dropped the ball on this point. Mark Simkin of the ABC last night reported that Labor’s lead had been eradicated by the “latest counting”, as opposed to an essentially meaningless administrative decision. Lateline too informed us that Labor’s two-party vote had “collapsed”, and Leigh Sales’ opening question to Julie Bishop on Lateline was essentially an invitation to gloat about the fact. Most newspaper accounts eventually get around to acknowledging the entirely artificial nature of the 50,000-vote reversal in Labor’s fortunes, but only after reporting in breathless tones on the removal of votes that will eventually be put back in.

The reality is that nobody knew who had the lead on the two-party vote yesterday morning, and nothing happened in the day to make anybody any the wiser. The Prime Minister equally had no idea on election night when she made her ill-advised claim to the two-party majority mantle. Only when all seats have reported Labor-versus-Coalition counts, which is probably still a few weeks away, will we be able to say for sure. The best we can do at present is to construct a projection based on the votes counted and our best assumptions as to how the gaps in the vote count data will be filled when all the figures are in.

At present we have completed “ordinary” polling day totals for all electorates and advanced counts of postal votes in most cases, but there has been no progress yet on absent or pre-poll votes in roughly half. Where counting of any of these three categories has been conducted, I have projected the party results on to the expected total of such votes (derived from the “declaration vote scrutiny progress” for absent and pre-poll votes, and from the number of applications for postal votes discounted by 16 per cent as per experience from 2007). Where no counting of a particular category has been conducted, I have compared the parties’ 2007 vote share in that category with their ordinary vote share, and applied that difference to the ordinary vote from this election. For example, the 2007 Liberal two-party vote in Canberra was 7.19 per cent higher than their ordinary vote share, so their 40.54 per cent ordinary vote at the current election has been used to project an absent vote share of 47.73 per cent.

For Batman, Grayndler and Denison, I have used the figures from the two-party Labor-versus-Liberal counts that were conducted in these seats from ordinary votes on election night, calculated the swing against the ordinary vote in 2007 and projected it over the expected absent, pre-poll and postal totals. For Melbourne, New England and Kennedy, where no Labor-versus-Coalition figures are available, I have used preference shares derived from the Labor-versus-Coalition counts from the 2007 election to determine the swing on ordinary votes, and projected that swing through the other categories. It’s with Lyne and O’Connor that things get crude, as we have no case study of how Rob Oakeshott’s or Wilson Tuckey’s preferences split between Labor and Nationals candidates. For O’Connor, which has at least been a Labor-Liberal-Nationals contest at successive elections, I have crudely arrived at a 7.9 per cent swing against Labor derived from the primary vote swing plus moderated by a 70 per cent share of the swing in favour of the Greens. The best I could think to do for Lyne was average the two-party swings from the neighbouring electorates, producing a 5.14 per cent swing against Labor.

Plug all that in and here’s what you get:

Labor 6,313,736 (50.02 per cent)
Coalition 6,307,924 (49.98 per cent)

In other news, Andrew Wilkie says the two-party vote total is “not relevant” in determining which party he will back. Good for him.

UPDATE: An Essential Research poll has it at 50-50, which is “unchanged” – I’m not sure if this is in comparison with the election result or a previously unpublished Essential result from a week ago. Basically no change on preferred prime minister. UPDATE 2: The 50-50 from last week was indeed an unpublished Essential result from their rolling two-week average, which they understandably felt was not worth publishing under the circumstances.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,640 comments on “Moral majority”

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  1. @ Dinkum

    a. As Itep suggests, or
    b. by making one of the 4 indies speaker (73-all goes with Gillard), or
    c. having one of the three amigos back ALP.

    Not suggesting its going to happen – just that there are many options.

    @ Itep: abstaining in Gillard’s favour could BE the deal.

  3. [ABC radio just reported that the rural indies have suggested that it may take weeks to decide which way they will go. “Weeks” ]

    Bonus

  5. Democracy, the ALP stood in every seat. They’ll only do 2PP’s in the 8 seats once they’ve finished counting and declared each of them I believe.

  6. Lefty E, it could be… but in the end abstaining would still be a decision to back Gillard no matter which way it was spun. The voters aren’t that stupid that they won’t realise that.

  7. The only thing I blame Julia for is going to the election too soon, she definately should have given herself more time, probably by December she would have had the runs on the board (and not Pakistani ones).

    But she may have been pushed into that ill fated strategy by others.

    It was Rudd that cost Labor this mess no doubt about it, and it wasn’t even the unfairly trumpeted part wastage of the GFC stimulus that did it, I can remember saying to myself and others during the 2007 campaign that he was as close to lying and saying anything to get elected as you could get, he over promised and built up expectations. And then came the revelations about his control personality.

    Yes, no doubt about it, it was Rudd, I don’t blame Julia. (With the exception I mentioned).

  8. [So if I am reading your comments correctly, it seems fairly certain that NBN Tas will continue irrespective?]

    No. I was merely suggesting that it wouldn’t be a stretch for Abbott to promise that it will to sweeten Wilkie.

  9. [do you know what MORON means. oxford ,,, page 512. moron adult,with a mental development of child abount nine.]

    my say, please forgive my mate Diog, because he is one himself most of the time

  10. It took a month for the Indies to make their final call after the 1999 State Election in Victoria. Of course they were waiting for a by election result. Still, it does give a guide as to what could occur timeline wise.

  11. [So if I am reading your comments correctly, it seems fairly certain that NBN Tas will continue irrespective?]

    now where did you get that from??

    hodgeman is very quite down here

  12. I’m sure this has already been discussed ad nauseum, however…

    Anthony Green says “…the AEC’s incomplete 2-party preferred vote is pointless” yet the ABC made such a big thing of it last night. Why didn’t they talk to Anthony first – frustrating!!!!

    AND NOW the ABC says on their site “politicians trade blows” oh my God! They are bloody shameful

  13. [Not sure how you would calculate those seats where the ALP did not stand. ]

    Maybe we should be counting the Senate vote and redistribute all preferences on the basis of only to candidates/parties running.. I would think the Senate would provide a more accurate 2PP outcome in those seats where there is no 2PP comparison between ALP and LNP

  14. Didn’t Brandis also make the claim about the TPP being significant for the indies? The indies are saying it will make no difference to their decision and they are the important ones here right now, not the general population.

  18. This whole 2PP is a load of crap. It’s an artificial construct. With the rise of the Greens and Indies, it is time it was consigned to the psephological wastebin.

  20. Some here and in the MSM seem to think the 3 amigos will naturally go for the conservatives given their electorates and backgrounds. If that’s the case why the charade of looking into everything for a couple of weeks? Why not just declare it over now?

  21. my say

    It was suggested earlier that the NBN TAS rollout was always intended to proceed under the Coalition’s plan, albeit then selling it off (I hadn’t seen or heard this before). If you couple this with Wilkie’s demands, I was suggesting (and asking for other views) that Tas NBN seemed fairly certain…

    The stimulus from NBN Tas would be tremendous for the State…

  23. [This whole 2PP is a load of crap. It’s an artificial construct. With the rise of the Greens and Indies, it is time it was consigned to the psephological wastebin.]

    I partly agree, but only in as much as it should not be a moral decider on who has a right to govern.

    I still think that compulsory preferential voting based on seats is the best electoral system in the world by a street.

  24. Probably been discussed but where is the poll that showed one in ten voters would change their vote if there was another election?
    Apparently, it is the younger voters who said this but the poll published did not state which party would benefit.
    Last night Gillard’s biographer said that there were over a million in protest votes & she believed that Gillard would romp it in if the election was ran again.
    Anyone hear Fraser try to make a point about News Ltd. & Jones tried to shut him down but he still manage to sneak a bit in about the Australian’s habit of playing up the bad.

  25. Apart from supporting the PM on a Confidence vote and supply, I’d expect Indies to support NBN and their other priorities.

    Technically, they could support Abbott only on confidence & supply, but introduce ALP policy on other items as private members Bills with ALP & Green support. They can also introduce Private Members Bills on just about anything & hope for support. But if it’s stable government they’re after, this is a recipe for instability, as is the Senate post-1 July 2011.

    That 1 July 2011 leaves the Coalition + conservative small-party Senators in a minority is, of itself, a recipe for instability if the ALP follows the LNP’s “Vote legislation down because we can! Nyaah, nyaah!” attitude, seems to be getting very minor press coverage compared to minute changes in which party has the higher 2PP.

    I wonder why.

  26. [The only thing I blame Julia for is going to the election too soon, she definately should have given herself more time, probably by December she would have had the runs on the board]

    That seems to be prevailing view, but it’s far from clear that going later would have been better. It really depends on how well she would have done in the extra months. She had some very difficult policy issues to deal with that she announced she would fix:
    – the mining tax, which she probably got away with
    – asylum seekers, for which she was very unlikely to get an agreement with East Timor before the election
    – climate change, which she couldn’t satisfactorily deal with no matter what she did

    In addition, she would have been hounded by relentless election speculation throughout those months. Extra time would have enabled her to establish herself as PM, but I don’t think that would have made up for failing on policy. Abbott would have said, “She’s had months now to fix these things and done nothing.”

  28. I think the ALP did stand in every seat, as did
    someone from the Libs/TrussNats(notWA)/LNP/CLP.
    (Note that there is no Coalition agreement in force
    at the moment so we can’t say that the Coalition
    stood in every seat).

    However, in a few rural seats in some states the ALP runs as the
    Country Labor Party.

  29. [It was suggested earlier that the NBN TAS rollout was always intended to proceed under the Coalition’s plan, albeit then selling it off (I hadn’t seen or heard this before).]

    Here’s what was believed to be the position earlier in the year. The Tas Liberals were quite happy supporting this scenario. Note this somewhat worrying comment in the article

    “”It wouldn’t be a problem rolling back the NBN because you would just stop construction,” NBNCo chief Michael Quigley said. “It would be very unfortunate because it’s good for the country, but no one around here is losing sleep over what the opposition said.””

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/australian-it/coalition-government-would-cancel-nbn-project/story-e6frgakx-1225861762922

  30. [I partly agree, but only in as much as it should not be a moral decider on who has a right to govern.]

    The reality of coming up with a 2PP is that it involves gross over-simplification of voting patterns and a large number of dubious assumptions.

  33. What would be very interesting would be to look at voting at the election and see how it stacked up in terms of female vs male (ie, whether the last-minute swing was from men, women or both).

    Maybe a few of the blokes got swayed by Tone’s last-gasp sleepless Action Man routine.

  34. [Apart from supporting the PM on a Confidence vote and supply, I’d expect Indies to support NBN and their other priorities.]

    The NBN can be cancelled without legislation. In fact, legislation to underpin the NBN was blocked in the Senate by all non-Government senators. There’s no reason why this would change now.

  35. [The voters aren’t that stupid that they won’t realise that.]

    Sure, but the voters also know they didnt elect either Gillard or Abbott in the end.

    I suspect there’ll be quite limited “fallout”, wheivever way this goes.

  38. lefy e & itep

    Thanks. Nail-biting stuff! Let’s hope the Indies manage provide a slightly larger buffer of some kind. The possibility of floor-crossing is largely contained in the blue team but neither team is immune from random by-elections. My gut feeling is that the speaker will have to come from the ‘winning’ team as the Independents all seem to want to keep their power and flexibility on the floor of the house.

  39. @Gary

    Some here and in the MSM seem to think the 3 amigos will naturally go for the conservatives given their electorates and backgrounds. If that’s the case why the charade of looking into everything for a couple of weeks? Why not just declare it over now?

    I think because,

    1) They are obviously hanging out for a the best deal they can. They are in a powerful position which may be never repeated so they are taking their time. My hunch is that they would naturally favour the Coalition, but if they stated straight off that they would do so they would have lost all their bargaining power.

    2) I also suspect that after years of being ignored by the media they quite like being the centre of attention. So why not extend it for a few days?

  40. This entire debate as to whether a greater primary vote or higher two-party preferred vote gives will give party greater moral authority is nothing but a meaningless sideshow created by the media and the political spin-meisters. The only meaningful criteria to decide who forms a minority government is which party commands a working majority on the house floor.

    John Howard formed government in 1996 despite having the lower two party preferred vote and in 1998 he won again despite Labor having a higher primary vote than the Coalition.

    Of course, the reason those erudite emotional vampires we called journalists get away with continually feeding the Australian public a deluge of unadulterated crap is simple.

    Most of the population are totally ignorant as to how our democracy actually works and how large sections of the media constantly work to undermine our democracy for purely economic and ideological purposes.

    The nervous laughter that emanated from the Q&A audience last night when Malcolm Fraser pointed to the relentless right-wing activism of News Corporation publications in recent years only serves to highlight this. Malcolm Fraser responded with the same incredulity I’m sure many thinking Australian experience all the time, asking what on earth the audience were laughing at.

    Denial is not just a river in Egypt. Paul Keatings’ “clever country” is now just a distant mirage and unless more Australians make an effort to pay more attention to the health of our democracy than they do watching Masterchef, Sport and salivating over mindless celebrity gossip, I fear it will continue to be so

  41. From someone whose every political prediction so far this year has – to paraphrase Tony Abbott – turned into a heap of crap – I present the following predictions, which will probably do likewise:

    Wilkie will go with Labor

    Oakeshott will go with the coalition.

    Katter is the big unknown, but wherever he goes Windsor will follow. Windsor would prefer Labor but if Katter chooses the coalition Windsor will have no choice. Labor will not be able to get across the line.

  42. I now Naurau wasn’t actually budgeted for, but the Coalition did include savings from “stopping the boats”. If there is no prospect of that policy being passed through Parliament those savings won’t be made.

  45. [1) They are obviously hanging out for a the best deal they can. They are in a powerful position which may be never repeated so they are taking their time. My hunch is that they would naturally favour the Coalition, but if they stated straight off that they would do so they would have lost all their bargaining power.]
    That’s fair enough but who’s to say the best deal will come from the conservatives?
    [2) I also suspect that after years of being ignored by the media they quite like being the centre of attention. So why not extend it for a few days?]
    Again fair enough. Although that makes them sound very shallow.
    So basically on both those points you are saying they are not genuine and nor are they real independents.

  46. Read Poll Bludger for the TRUTH! not the News Corp anti ALP/GILLARD rags.Im getting very sick of a lazy ABC news running with the News/Australian agenda all the time
    Malcolm Fraser is one of the few public figures to speak out against Murdoch and his meglomania .

  47. Yes Gos, they claimed the savings from closing CI without any budgeting for opening Nauru. Very sound economic managers that coalition

  48. [So I think the eroneous reporting of today and last night, balances the eoneous reporting of the last 10 days]

    The this is, Dovif, the erroneous reporting, as you suggest, of the last 10 days hasn’t been front and centre of any news reports, whilst News Ltd and all the affiliates (read just about every media org in the country) has jumped on this as some kind of revelation. Thus it isn’t the same at ALL.

  49. [I don’t recall Malcolm Fraser complaining about News Ltd bias in 1975. FMD.]

    Just read that post by Psephos. How right he is. Paul Barry (now doing MediaWatch) wrote in his book that Fraser knew Murdoch invited Kerr to lunch at the Yass farm the day before Fraser did Gough in. Murdoch apparently made it clear to Kerr that he wanted Gough gone.

    Fraser was very happy for Murdoch to intervene in many ways in 1975 and last night Fraser was trying hard to rewrite history for those born after that event.

    His leaving the Liberal Party hasn’t made up for his impatience by blocking supply. If he’d waited a few months he would have won the election anyway.

  50. Yes Gweeds, after the 1996 New Zealand election, Winston Peters negotiated for over a month until he finally announced his decision to side with his former party (National). Peters’ campaign manager later revealed that Peters had decided at the time of the election to support National and only used public statements and negotiations with Labour to extract more concessions out of National.

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