Moral majority

Yesterday, the Australian Electoral Commission performed an act which in a rational world would have excited no interest. Since last weekend the commission has featured a “national two party preferred result” on the front page of its Virtual Tally Room, which has assumed tremendous psychological interest as Labor’s margin has steadily eroded from 0.6 per cent to 0.4 per cent. However, the tally had a flaw which biased it in Labor’s favour: there were no Labor-versus-Coalition figures available from strongly conservative Kennedy, Lyne, New England or O’Connor, where the notional two-candidate preferred counts conducted on election night involved independents. This was only balanced out by left-wing Melbourne, where Labor and the Greens were correctly identified as the front-running candidates for the notional count. For whatever reason, the AEC decided yesterday to level the playing field by excluding seats where the notional preference count candidates had been changed since election night, which in each case meant left-wing seats where the Liberals had finished third to the Greens (Batman and Grayndler) or Andrew Wilkie (Denison). The result was an instant 0.4 per cent drop in Labor’s score, reducing them to a minuscule lead that was soon rubbed out by further late counting.

In fact, very little actually changed in yesterday’s counting, which saw a continuation of the slow decline in the Labor total that is the usual pattern of late counting. The media, regrettably, has almost entirely dropped the ball on this point. Mark Simkin of the ABC last night reported that Labor’s lead had been eradicated by the “latest counting”, as opposed to an essentially meaningless administrative decision. Lateline too informed us that Labor’s two-party vote had “collapsed”, and Leigh Sales’ opening question to Julie Bishop on Lateline was essentially an invitation to gloat about the fact. Most newspaper accounts eventually get around to acknowledging the entirely artificial nature of the 50,000-vote reversal in Labor’s fortunes, but only after reporting in breathless tones on the removal of votes that will eventually be put back in.

The reality is that nobody knew who had the lead on the two-party vote yesterday morning, and nothing happened in the day to make anybody any the wiser. The Prime Minister equally had no idea on election night when she made her ill-advised claim to the two-party majority mantle. Only when all seats have reported Labor-versus-Coalition counts, which is probably still a few weeks away, will we be able to say for sure. The best we can do at present is to construct a projection based on the votes counted and our best assumptions as to how the gaps in the vote count data will be filled when all the figures are in.

At present we have completed “ordinary” polling day totals for all electorates and advanced counts of postal votes in most cases, but there has been no progress yet on absent or pre-poll votes in roughly half. Where counting of any of these three categories has been conducted, I have projected the party results on to the expected total of such votes (derived from the “declaration vote scrutiny progress” for absent and pre-poll votes, and from the number of applications for postal votes discounted by 16 per cent as per experience from 2007). Where no counting of a particular category has been conducted, I have compared the parties’ 2007 vote share in that category with their ordinary vote share, and applied that difference to the ordinary vote from this election. For example, the 2007 Liberal two-party vote in Canberra was 7.19 per cent higher than their ordinary vote share, so their 40.54 per cent ordinary vote at the current election has been used to project an absent vote share of 47.73 per cent.

For Batman, Grayndler and Denison, I have used the figures from the two-party Labor-versus-Liberal counts that were conducted in these seats from ordinary votes on election night, calculated the swing against the ordinary vote in 2007 and projected it over the expected absent, pre-poll and postal totals. For Melbourne, New England and Kennedy, where no Labor-versus-Coalition figures are available, I have used preference shares derived from the Labor-versus-Coalition counts from the 2007 election to determine the swing on ordinary votes, and projected that swing through the other categories. It’s with Lyne and O’Connor that things get crude, as we have no case study of how Rob Oakeshott’s or Wilson Tuckey’s preferences split between Labor and Nationals candidates. For O’Connor, which has at least been a Labor-Liberal-Nationals contest at successive elections, I have crudely arrived at a 7.9 per cent swing against Labor derived from the primary vote swing plus moderated by a 70 per cent share of the swing in favour of the Greens. The best I could think to do for Lyne was average the two-party swings from the neighbouring electorates, producing a 5.14 per cent swing against Labor.

Plug all that in and here’s what you get:

Labor 6,313,736 (50.02 per cent)
Coalition 6,307,924 (49.98 per cent)

In other news, Andrew Wilkie says the two-party vote total is “not relevant” in determining which party he will back. Good for him.

UPDATE: An Essential Research poll has it at 50-50, which is “unchanged” – I’m not sure if this is in comparison with the election result or a previously unpublished Essential result from a week ago. Basically no change on preferred prime minister. UPDATE 2: The 50-50 from last week was indeed an unpublished Essential result from their rolling two-week average, which they understandably felt was not worth publishing under the circumstances.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,640 comments on “Moral majority”

Comments Page 7 of 73
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  2. [Luckily the AEC notes that the current vote count
    in Boothby is not final.]

    Nobody is expecting Boothby to go Labor though are they?

  5. [This de-facto rail strike in Perth today, without the minimum notice as required, may be a completely unrelated issue, but the timing will do Labor’s chance of governing no good at all. People will be annoyed, and will blame the union.]
    Err, which people?

  6. Gary, Gillards comments were based on projections that still stand. Bishop’s comments were based on a temporary change in an incomplete count. As I said last night, she should not have taken the bait.

  7. confessions

    The current count in Boothby says 0 votes all.

    I was guessing that some voters might be upset if it stayed that way.

  8. confessions@298

    Luckily the AEC notes that the current vote count
    in Boothby is not final.

    Nobody is expecting Boothby to go Labor though are they?

    Only if the “incident” is more sinister that it currently appears…

  9. No – it is not what a gerrymander is.

    [Now here’s the doozey: in the Reps, the Greens polled 11.4% for 1 seat, the Nats polled 3.7% for 7 seats. Is that a gerrymander or what?
    ]
    To make the point you would need to see what proportion of seats each of these party’s contested.

    After all, an independent who wins a seat with 100% of her constituent’s support will still have scored less than 1% of the total vote.

  11. Gary@301

    This de-facto rail strike in Perth today, without the minimum notice as required, may be a completely unrelated issue, but the timing will do Labor’s chance of governing no good at all. People will be annoyed, and will blame the union.

    Err, which people?

    give me their names…

  12. What is this headline on ABCNews24 about Tone claiming to be the government-in-waiting or wtte?

    Tone can’t keep his arrogance under control; or does he know that the Indies are finally instep with the fibs?

  13. [Nobody is expecting Boothby to go Labor though are they?]
    I would be demanding a rerun to be honest.
    Is this an isolated case in this electorate or was there some shenanigans going on from other booths?

  15. PTMD

    It has just been reported on ABC radio that at the Shadow Cabinet meeting today Abbott has declared that they are no longer the opposition, but the government in waiting, and that Labor is not a legimate govt.

  19. [This de-facto rail strike in Perth today, without the minimum notice as required, may be a completely unrelated issue, but the timing will do Labor’s chance of governing no good at all. People will be annoyed, and will blame the union.

    Err, which people?

    give me their names…]
    The point I’m trying to make is that the only people that can be swayed against Labor governing have just been elected and I don’t think it will make a blind bit of difference to them.

  22. Victoria,
    [ but the government in waiting, and that Labor is not a legimate govt.]
    This is not good, suggests he has a deal.

  23. Just returned from wading through the liberal swamp that is comments on the yahoo7 news. Many stupid posters calling it over because the coalition is now in front. Posted the last update to the count

  25. [What is this headline on ABCNews24 about Tone claiming to be the government-in-waiting or wtte?]

    ABC newsradio carried it as well, along with the ‘story’ about the coalition leading the 2PP count.

  26. OK, I take it back, the MSM are sort of on the job.

    As to Abbott’s comments – it’s all about pressure on the independents.

    I truly loathe this man and his party.

  28. [It has just been reported on ABC radio that at the Shadow Cabinet meeting today Abbott has declared that they are no longer the opposition, but the government in waiting, and that Labor is not a legimate govt.]
    Mmmm…Is this considered a leak from cabinet meetings? Strategic or designed to damage?

  29. [The fat lady is going to do an encore?]

    yeah will Sophie make a follow-up appearance on SLY Agenda to recant her argument from this morning?

  35. [TONY Abbott has moved to spoil Julia Gillard’s pitch to form government, declaring today that the Coalition is no longer in opposition.

    While stopping short of claiming victory, Mr Abbott said at the start of a shadow cabinet meeting today that the Coalition had a more powerful mandate than Labor.]

    Labor are still the government Tone, even if it is a caretaker government.
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/abbott-ramps-up-pressure-on-gillard-as-parties-pitch-for-power/story-fn59niix-1225912291940

  36. [This is not good, suggests he has a deal.]
    Perhaps he has Wilkie, although Windsor said this morning it will be up to two weeks before the indies make their mind up.

  38. [Does anyone agree with Gillard’s biographer about a rerun of the election would see Gillard in a landslide win?]

    Me. The protest vote was cast and the Labor voters will think twice next time.

  39. Does anyone agree with Gillard’s biographer about a rerun of the election would see Gillard in a landslide win?

    no, a re-run really worries me … the Indies and greens will have preferences directed against them, what happens then? (calling Dr Good!)

  40. Dr Good, Malcolm has everything to lose by Abbott winning. He stayed in parliament to re-take the leadership. If Abbott wins and succeeds (and he will get a massive leg-up from the MSM no doubt), Malcolm will never be PM. I say we make him climate change minister in a Labor government!!

  42. BigBob
    [I truly loathe this man and his party.]

    Like a tapeworm, thrives in dark and slimy places, dedicated to living off the sustenance of others and replicates via the fundamental orrifice.

  44. [He pointed to the six residents of regional Australia at the table and argued that if the caretaker cabinet were to meet, there would be none.]

    Is this true? Doesn’t Labor have anyone in Cabinet from regional Australia?

  47. Victoria,

    I have been in denial since the 21st – I have kept telling myself that everything will be fine.

    Last night it hit me – I had a woeful nights sleep with thoughts of these clowns being back in power having not learnt a damn thing except to be more sneaky in their actions.

    I truly hope that the touted double dip doesn’t hit the world because we will have the least well equipped jokers ever to handle it. They have effectively left themselves nowhere to turn on this – we will feel the full force of it as they will not be able to go into any significant deficit to keep the economy ticking.

  49. If you really were winning this, would you party be threatening the indies, would you be demanding the right to govern, would you be overplaying the 2PP changes, would you upset the indies by refusing costings and briefings. Abbott is not behaving like he is winning

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