Moral majority

Yesterday, the Australian Electoral Commission performed an act which in a rational world would have excited no interest. Since last weekend the commission has featured a “national two party preferred result” on the front page of its Virtual Tally Room, which has assumed tremendous psychological interest as Labor’s margin has steadily eroded from 0.6 per cent to 0.4 per cent. However, the tally had a flaw which biased it in Labor’s favour: there were no Labor-versus-Coalition figures available from strongly conservative Kennedy, Lyne, New England or O’Connor, where the notional two-candidate preferred counts conducted on election night involved independents. This was only balanced out by left-wing Melbourne, where Labor and the Greens were correctly identified as the front-running candidates for the notional count. For whatever reason, the AEC decided yesterday to level the playing field by excluding seats where the notional preference count candidates had been changed since election night, which in each case meant left-wing seats where the Liberals had finished third to the Greens (Batman and Grayndler) or Andrew Wilkie (Denison). The result was an instant 0.4 per cent drop in Labor’s score, reducing them to a minuscule lead that was soon rubbed out by further late counting.

In fact, very little actually changed in yesterday’s counting, which saw a continuation of the slow decline in the Labor total that is the usual pattern of late counting. The media, regrettably, has almost entirely dropped the ball on this point. Mark Simkin of the ABC last night reported that Labor’s lead had been eradicated by the “latest counting”, as opposed to an essentially meaningless administrative decision. Lateline too informed us that Labor’s two-party vote had “collapsed”, and Leigh Sales’ opening question to Julie Bishop on Lateline was essentially an invitation to gloat about the fact. Most newspaper accounts eventually get around to acknowledging the entirely artificial nature of the 50,000-vote reversal in Labor’s fortunes, but only after reporting in breathless tones on the removal of votes that will eventually be put back in.

The reality is that nobody knew who had the lead on the two-party vote yesterday morning, and nothing happened in the day to make anybody any the wiser. The Prime Minister equally had no idea on election night when she made her ill-advised claim to the two-party majority mantle. Only when all seats have reported Labor-versus-Coalition counts, which is probably still a few weeks away, will we be able to say for sure. The best we can do at present is to construct a projection based on the votes counted and our best assumptions as to how the gaps in the vote count data will be filled when all the figures are in.

At present we have completed “ordinary” polling day totals for all electorates and advanced counts of postal votes in most cases, but there has been no progress yet on absent or pre-poll votes in roughly half. Where counting of any of these three categories has been conducted, I have projected the party results on to the expected total of such votes (derived from the “declaration vote scrutiny progress” for absent and pre-poll votes, and from the number of applications for postal votes discounted by 16 per cent as per experience from 2007). Where no counting of a particular category has been conducted, I have compared the parties’ 2007 vote share in that category with their ordinary vote share, and applied that difference to the ordinary vote from this election. For example, the 2007 Liberal two-party vote in Canberra was 7.19 per cent higher than their ordinary vote share, so their 40.54 per cent ordinary vote at the current election has been used to project an absent vote share of 47.73 per cent.

For Batman, Grayndler and Denison, I have used the figures from the two-party Labor-versus-Liberal counts that were conducted in these seats from ordinary votes on election night, calculated the swing against the ordinary vote in 2007 and projected it over the expected absent, pre-poll and postal totals. For Melbourne, New England and Kennedy, where no Labor-versus-Coalition figures are available, I have used preference shares derived from the Labor-versus-Coalition counts from the 2007 election to determine the swing on ordinary votes, and projected that swing through the other categories. It’s with Lyne and O’Connor that things get crude, as we have no case study of how Rob Oakeshott’s or Wilson Tuckey’s preferences split between Labor and Nationals candidates. For O’Connor, which has at least been a Labor-Liberal-Nationals contest at successive elections, I have crudely arrived at a 7.9 per cent swing against Labor derived from the primary vote swing plus moderated by a 70 per cent share of the swing in favour of the Greens. The best I could think to do for Lyne was average the two-party swings from the neighbouring electorates, producing a 5.14 per cent swing against Labor.

Plug all that in and here’s what you get:

Labor 6,313,736 (50.02 per cent)
Coalition 6,307,924 (49.98 per cent)

In other news, Andrew Wilkie says the two-party vote total is “not relevant” in determining which party he will back. Good for him.

UPDATE: An Essential Research poll has it at 50-50, which is “unchanged” – I’m not sure if this is in comparison with the election result or a previously unpublished Essential result from a week ago. Basically no change on preferred prime minister. UPDATE 2: The 50-50 from last week was indeed an unpublished Essential result from their rolling two-week average, which they understandably felt was not worth publishing under the circumstances.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,640 comments on “Moral majority”

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  1. [Victoria,

    but the government in waiting, and that Labor is not a legimate govt.

    This is not good, suggests he has a deal.]

    Saw him say this on telly awhile ago. He’d say whether he knew what the Indies were going to do or not. Tone has to keep himself confident.

  4. [no, a re-run really worries me … the Indies and greens will have preferences directed against them, what happens then? (calling Dr Good!)]
    All I know is that they reckon there were over a million protest votes.
    Over 600,000 informal votes & how many donkeys?
    One in ten state they will change their vote if they get another chance. I’m up for it.
    Surely it is better than death by a thousand cuts? 🙂

  6. Dee, would certainly sort out the protestors. I’d say Labor might pick up more primaries off the Greens. And remember, we would have the coalition costings for all to see…

  7. Andrew @ 344
    Thanks, calming my anxieties. 🙂
    So this was leaked from the shadow cabinet meeting? Well. it is the sort of thing one would say to the troops in such a meeting, especially if the troops have the bayonets ready to fix if the campaign fails.

  12. A summary of the Australian Financial Review article on the links between the Indies & the unions:

    The donation to Bob Katter’s campaign was made by the Victorian branch of the Electrical Trades Union (the militant one which also sent money to the Greens instead of Labor).

    The donation was confirmed by ETU Victorian Secretary Dean Mighell who said that they supported Bob & other independents who “who have worked with us to benefit the lot of our members”.

    All 3 of Katter, Oakshott & Windsor publicly backed ETU report opposing free trade agreement with China & calling for greater protection of local industries.

    Bob Katter also opposed workplace relations reforms under Howard government, including Australian Building & Construction Commission, & supported union officials rights to enter workplaces.

    Oakshott is also believed to have received some support from unions in his electorate, but Windsor & Wilkie were not backed by ETU.

    So, in summary …

    The 3 rural independents are definitely NOT people who will “inevitably” go to the Coalition because it is their “natural home”, as some appear to be claiming.

  13. [And remember, we would have the coalition costings for all to see…]
    I suspect that is why is reluctant for the public to know the costings & the mechanism with which he is going to pay for his promises.
    A rise in the GST would go down a treat if we have a rerun.

  14. Pica, whichever party is seen to have forced a relection will be punished severely. It seems like Abbott wants another go but Gillard doesnt

  18. [Pica, whichever party is seen to have forced a relection will be punished severely.]

    True. But looking on the bright side, no-one has any money so we wouldn’t get nearly as much propaganda in our mailboxes or filling our TV screens.

  19. Psephos, I would like to see Gillard get out of campaign mode and be more frank with the lessons learnt by the loss of so many seats

  20. [Pica, whichever party is seen to have forced a relection will be punished severely. It seems like Abbott wants another go but Gillard doesnt]
    I sure hope the Rabbott has a dummy spit & demands another election.

  23. [True. But looking on the bright side, no-one has any money so we wouldn’t get nearly as much propaganda in our mailboxes or filling our TV screens.]
    Perhaps we could go to another poll with a ban of all political advertising.

  25. Psephos, she severely underplayed the “I need more time, or another go” line during the campaign. A quite valid argument for her reelection

  30. [Perhaps we could go to another poll with a ban of all political advertising.]

    This would not stop the News Ltd. spin machine.

    Do any of the independents have smashing the uncompetative media marketplace on their agenda?

  34. i know it is a little thing, but I wish Julia would get someone to check the line-up of her collar and neckline before going on tv. She wears angular necklines (and they suit her) but sometimes they are not level. Where are her advisors to check this stuff just before she goes out? I assume there are no mirrors for a last minute check-up. Surely she has a PA to do this stuff? (I know, I know, it shouldn’t matter but why give her detractors any excuse?)

  35. Labor would do a lot better in a fresh campaign for the following reasons:

    1) Kev would be back on board from day one;
    2) The pissed-off Queenslanders have already vented their spleen. And in particular electorates – Longman springs immediately to mind – the voters have a chance of reversing the election of an embarrassing member;
    3) Likewise the NS Welshpeople got the spleen vent out of the way;
    4) The behaviour of Abbott and co post election will be a factor, especially in relation to costings. Labor can hammer home mercilessly that their numbers don’t – and won’t, despite the endorsement of Hogwarts – add up when put under any serious scrutiny. And they can do this from day one to day thirty of the campaign. Make it a mantra, if you will, just like debt and deficit, except the boot’s on the other foot this time.
    5) Denison will come back to Labor. Wilkie has looked like a goose since Saturday and I can’t see him redeeming himself in the eyes of the electorate in another campaign.
    6) Melbourne may well come back to Labor, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Bandt holds it. Even if he does, he will still “sit” with Labor in the event that it is hung again.
    7) The Libs cannot afford to once again spend the money it did in SA, particularly in Sturt and Boothby. Especially in light of the shenanigans in at least one booth, you would think that Boothby would be vulnerable.
    8) Contrasted against the Coalition, the behaviour of the Labor Party post-election has been exemplary. They are the ones who look like a government-in-waiting, not the rabble that passes as the Coalition, despite what the Tonester thinks.

    Naturally Limited News will go all out again to get their boys over the line, but I think Labor will get up.

    76 seats in their own right; 77 with Bandt. Safe, stable majority.

  38. Chinda, I think that’s highly optimistic. I don’t think NSW or Qld would come back to Labor that quickly. I don’t think Labor would regain Melbourne or Denison.

  39. It’s a very workmanlike address by Gillard. She’s emphasising that Labor govt represents continuity, and therefore stability, while acknowledging she’s heeded the lessons of the first term, and heard the message from voters.

  40. [Chinda, I think that’s highly optimistic. I don’t think NSW or Qld would come back to Labor that quickly. I don’t think Labor would regain Melbourne or Denison.]

    I’d think Queenslanders are probably quite proud of themselves for making this mess, actually, and would do it again in a heart beat.

  41. [OMG the pain the pain]

    Gus, didnt anybody tell you when you were young that pain would lead to pleasure? It hurts so good.

    i am enjoying this. Especially watching Mesma doing the softening of the Undies.

  43. She’s just ripped through the various initiatives Labor undertook to strengthen regional communities, saying ‘we don’t need to reclaim our regional connections because we never lost them’.

  44. [It’s a very workmanlike address by Gillard. She’s emphasising that Labor govt represents continuity, and therefore stability, while acknowledging she’s heeded the lessons of the first term, and heard the message from voters.]

    Nothing about the ALPs intention to ban the importation of Phillipino bananas?

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