Limbo dancing

While you wait:

• The media has finally awoken to the possibility the Steve Fielding might yet win the race for the final Victorian Senate seat, which is the only result of the election still in doubt. The ABC projection has John Madigan of the Democratic Labor Party winning the seat after narrowly escaping exclusion at “count 21”, where he keeps ahead of Fielding with 3.29 per cent of the vote against 3.14 per cent. If Fielding gets ahead – and there is reason to think name recognition will boost him on below-the-line preferences – it will be he rather than Madigan that snowballs to victory with the help of the other preferences. However, Antony Green reckons it more likely whoever gets ahead will ultimately land short of the third Coalition candidate, Julian McGauran, who will benefit from the Coalition’s traditional strength on late counting. More from Andrew Crook at Crikey. Those wishing to discuss the Senate count are asked to do so in the dedicated post below.

• Government formation negotiations have turned up a number of agreements on campaign finance and electoral reform. The Labor-Greens alliance proposes that the two parties will “work together” to enact reforms that were blocked in the Senate last year by the Coalition and silly Steve Fielding: lowering the threshold for public disclosure of donations from $11,500 to $1000, closing the loophole that allows separate donations below the threshold to be made to multiple state party branches, shortening the gap between receipt of donations and disclosure, tying public funding to genuine campaign expenditure, banning foreign donations and banning anonymous donations over $50. Julia Gillard has said the deal she has offered to the independents, which has not been made available to the public, is along the same lines. According to The Age, “Tony Abbott has signalled he is prepared to consider significant reform but is yet to reveal the specific options he is putting to the three rural independents”.

• Also in the Labor-Greens agreement is a promise to “consider” a long-standing Greens private members bill which proposes to abolish the “just vote one” above-the-line Senate option that commits the voter to the party’s registered Senate ticket, to be replaced with preferential ordering of at least four party boxes above the line (seven at double dissolutions). This would result in votes exhausting where no further preference is indicated, rather than locking every vote in behind the sometimes highly obscure candidates who survive to the final stages of the count.

• Labor and the Greens also promise to “work together” to enforce “truth in advertising”, which the Greens have been very keen on since Labor targeted them with a smear campaign before the March state election in Tasmania. Establishing the terms of such a measure would be highly fraught, as noted recently by Robert Merkel at Larvatus Prodeo.

• Labor has agreed only to “investigate” the possibility of legislated fixed terms; the rural independents are calling for the length of the current term to be set by “enabling legislation or other means”.

• Tim Colebatch of The Age fancies Senate figures suggest Labor should ultimately win the two-party arm wrestle, the results of which won’t be known to us for at least a month.

• Tasmanian firm EMRS has published one of its regular polls of state voting intention, which has the Liberals down from 39.0 per cent at the election to 35 per cent, Labor down from 36.9 per cent to 34 per cent, the Greens up from 21.6 per cent to 26 per cent – overstatement of the Greens being a feature of EMRS polls. The firm suffered a further dent during the federal election campaign when its poll failed to detect the strength of support for Andrew Wilkie.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,048 comments on “Limbo dancing”

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  2. [Withdrawing govt advertising from the Aust would be a good move.]

    Newspapers are so “yesterday” anyway. Imagine the money that could be saved if they just dedicated a website to government jobs instead (assuming the don’t already??)

  4. [My OH says it is a message to the other indies & what to expect if they don’t play ball. I don’t think they have the guts to do what is right.
    Wilkie made his decision based on principles & ethics but he is no seasoned politician.]

    It is all water of a ducks back for the Indi’s. they are used to these tactics from the coalition toward them smearing them and being generally nasty. It will have absolutely zero impact on them. zero.

  5. [My OH says it is a message to the other indies & what to expect if they don’t play ball. I don’t think they have the guts to do what is right.
    Wilkie made his decision based on principles & ethics but he is no seasoned politician.]

    The Indies (of all people) must be painfully conscious of how we are in uncharted territory, politically, and that whatever they decide to do will be written up in the history books ascribed to their names. Theoretically you would think that that knowledge should motivate which way they’ll jum more than any bullying from the nasty parties would.

  7. wal

    [Honesty in politics bugs me…
    They all have good intentions, they all lie and would sell their grandma to get a vote.
    If you are going to lie, at least be upfront and not say “Ive never told a lie” etc.]

    I’m reading “Secrets” about Vietnam and the Pentagon Papers.

    The author is working in the Pentagon as a high level bureaucrat on Vietnam policy. It’s the 1964 election and LBJ is looking like beating Goldwater, largely because he is more of a dove on Vietnam as in “We seek no wider war.”

    The author says most of the bureaucrats were too busy to vote for LBJ on election day because they were all busy in a meeting on how best to widen the war.

  10. Dee

    Wilkie’s smackdown of the coalition was not the work of a naive man. He negotiated with the Libs, and then said no thank you, and
    by the way the offer of 1 billion is highly unethical. By the way unethical behaviour like going to war on false pretenses. By the way there is a Big Black hole in costings. No confidence there. Thanks but no thanks.

    In one hit, he demolished the coalitions credibility.

  11. [If anyone has gone off the deep end in the last couple of weeks, it’s the Honourable Member for Mackellar]

    I’m of the view that that twitter account is a fake Bronny.

  12. Ben Fordham on Channel 9 News reckons that Oakshott and Windsor are definitely going with Labor/Bandt/Wilkie.
    Katter’s intentions still unknown, although Rudd did a bit of arm twisting over dinner. 😉

  13. [So where we’re at is Oakshot and Windsor are rumoured to be going Labor? Katter not committing?]

    You are the most polite political headkicker I have ever heard of.

  14. [3491
    confessions

    chinda, briefly:

    If Gillard does form govt, one area the Liberals may need to change leaders over is climate change, esp if Bob Brown’s parliamentary climate commttee gets up. Abbott has already ruled out coalition MPs from participating in it, which will immediately fracture the party because I can’t see Turnbull abiding by that directive, esp with how strong he’s expressed the need for a price on carbon. Other moderate Libs who accept the science of AGW might also join Turnbull.]

    I agree, confessions. And in any case, what extraordinary over-reach by Abbott. The Libs make such a big deal out of the supposed freedom their members enjoy. And yet he would ban his members from joining a Committee set up to advise the Parliament. Such an attempted ban is really a refusal to accept reality. It would quite surreal if Turnbull and others were to allow themselves to be the subject of rule by decree on this.

    Turnbull does not need the Liberal Party to remain in Parliament. He must have a very good following in Wentworth and he has all the financial means required to run a campaign. If he s serious about this issue, in the end he will defy Abbott.

    The CC issue has run in one direction only for Abbott so far. But if things work out, CC will be back in the centre of political engagement again, only this time Labor, The Greens, the I’s will all be trying to get onto the same hymn sheet. There are real dangers ahead for the coalition. They may yet split over this issue.

  16. [ Who forms government? ]

    74-73.

    Labor supply Speaker, then 73-73. Gillard as existing PM gets the nod. Then into parliament. Even if the Rabbott moves NO-confidence, it can’t succeed. GAME OVER.

    BTW – CentreBet are still offering (were – sorry – they just took the board down) $1.46. Not a bad bet for a certain win.

  18. [I’m reading “Secrets” about Vietnam and the Pentagon Papers.]

    Diog, keeps reader. but have u learned anything? btw: There is no GOD.

  19. [3554
    the spectator

    My OH says it is a message to the other indies & what to expect if they don’t play ball. I don’t think they have the guts to do what is right.
    Wilkie made his decision based on principles & ethics but he is no seasoned politician.

    It is all water of a ducks back for the Indi’s. they are used to these tactics from the coalition toward them smearing them and being generally nasty. It will have absolutely zero impact on them. zero.]

    It will toughen their resolve to do what they have done so many times before: stand up to the LNP.

  20. Quick proxy for GP.
    Ahem.

    [ Evening circle jerkers!

    Whaaa
    whaaa
    whaaaa
    something something Dullard
    whaaaaa
    Coalition will win.
    ]

  21. So where we’re at is Oakshot and Windsor are rumoured to be going Labor? Katter not committing?

    Katter will fall into line with the other two.

  25. What the indies should ask for is a proper nation-wide education programme on our constitution and political process.

    Before the election, those fools rabbiting on about getting to choose the PM were ridiculous, but the Coalition & its friends & relations claiming Labor is undermining the process now, let alone if they should be able to form government… And too few people seem to realise how wrong they are. Especially many in the media, who really ought to know better.

  28. [3574
    Dee

    Hockey on Radio National this morning. ‘We won the primary vote, we won the 2PP vote & we won more seats than the ALP’]

    And yet they will have lost. How sweet.

  29. How’s Katter going to stop the Boats when all those voters in Leichardt realise thay have been sold a crock and suddenly want what their neighbours in Kennedy are queueing up for?

  31. Singapore has had 3 Prime Ministers so far –

    Lee Kuan Yew , Goh Chok Tong & Lee Hsien Loong (Lee Kuan Yews son)

    They are referred to as the Father, the Son & the Holy Goh.

  32. Did someone mention Vietnam.

    As a voteless naive 20 year old I dutifully filled in Form NS1A (NS = National Service).

    My whole approach to politics since then has been :

    No matter what Labour does to me – they have never tried to kill me.

  33. [Hockey on Radio National this morning. ‘We won the primary vote, we won the 2PP vote & we won more seats than the ALP’]

    and we won the pie eating contest!

    Harumph

  35. If the indies were going coalition they could have announced today and enjoyed a relaxing weekend at home. More likely they are going home to prepare their electorates for their supporting a Labor government

  38. Dee

    I suspect figures were being bandied about regarding what monies would be required etc., Abbott probably said, sure we will cover it all. Does 1 billion sound okay. Wilkie probably said yes, but where will the money come from. Never mind, says Abbott, we have creative accounting.

  39. Finns

    [but have u learned anything?]

    I did learn something. When the Vietnam War was looking really bad in 1966, an adviser who had spent 10 years in Vietnam was asked to fly to Washington to talk to the President about how things were going. Some complete knob insisted on talking to him first (Rostow).

    Rostow was talking to the guy and saying that he thought the war would be over by the end of the year.

    The guy replied “Oh no, I doubt that. I’m pretty sure we can hang in there at least until next year.”

    Rostow stormed out and a secretary came in and told the adviser that the President wouldn’t be able to see him after all.

  40. The Coalition aren’t exactly saying Wilkie asked for $1 billion. They’re saying he asked for a teaching hospital. You’ve got to watch out for their tricky way of saying things.

  41. [Hockey on Radio National this morning. ‘We won the primary vote, we won the 2PP vote & we won more seats than the ALP’]

    This is their problem. they wont get over the result, they wont renew. the mirage of a close result is the worst possible outcome for them as it was for beazly in 98. against all expectations I expect this minority govt will actually turn out to be one of the most successfull.

  42. Abbott instructing all his shadow ministers to parrot the same line about the supposed evil Labor/Greens alliance makes the Libs look even more desperate and shifty.
    Phoney’s other tactic – getting his associates on Radio Liberal to denigrate Oakeshott and Windsor.
    Typical behaviour of an Abbott led Coalition. 😉

  43. [When the Vietnam War was looking really bad in 1966]

    Diog, where were you Bob Askin was trying to run the bastards over?

  45. evan14

    KOW would be made to side with the coalition. It will definitely not be stable government, which would suit Abbott perfectly to go back to the polls.

  47. do you have the inside scoop?

    Victoria No. They want stability and other good stuff for the whole country – NBN etc etc.

    But Katter keeps repeating they should vote as block. I have been confident all along & remain so that Oakeshott & Windsor will go labor & Katter will fall in line as well.

    After that it will be on a bill by bill approach.

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