Limbo dancing

While you wait:

• The media has finally awoken to the possibility the Steve Fielding might yet win the race for the final Victorian Senate seat, which is the only result of the election still in doubt. The ABC projection has John Madigan of the Democratic Labor Party winning the seat after narrowly escaping exclusion at “count 21”, where he keeps ahead of Fielding with 3.29 per cent of the vote against 3.14 per cent. If Fielding gets ahead – and there is reason to think name recognition will boost him on below-the-line preferences – it will be he rather than Madigan that snowballs to victory with the help of the other preferences. However, Antony Green reckons it more likely whoever gets ahead will ultimately land short of the third Coalition candidate, Julian McGauran, who will benefit from the Coalition’s traditional strength on late counting. More from Andrew Crook at Crikey. Those wishing to discuss the Senate count are asked to do so in the dedicated post below.

• Government formation negotiations have turned up a number of agreements on campaign finance and electoral reform. The Labor-Greens alliance proposes that the two parties will “work together” to enact reforms that were blocked in the Senate last year by the Coalition and silly Steve Fielding: lowering the threshold for public disclosure of donations from $11,500 to $1000, closing the loophole that allows separate donations below the threshold to be made to multiple state party branches, shortening the gap between receipt of donations and disclosure, tying public funding to genuine campaign expenditure, banning foreign donations and banning anonymous donations over $50. Julia Gillard has said the deal she has offered to the independents, which has not been made available to the public, is along the same lines. According to The Age, “Tony Abbott has signalled he is prepared to consider significant reform but is yet to reveal the specific options he is putting to the three rural independents”.

• Also in the Labor-Greens agreement is a promise to “consider” a long-standing Greens private members bill which proposes to abolish the “just vote one” above-the-line Senate option that commits the voter to the party’s registered Senate ticket, to be replaced with preferential ordering of at least four party boxes above the line (seven at double dissolutions). This would result in votes exhausting where no further preference is indicated, rather than locking every vote in behind the sometimes highly obscure candidates who survive to the final stages of the count.

• Labor and the Greens also promise to “work together” to enforce “truth in advertising”, which the Greens have been very keen on since Labor targeted them with a smear campaign before the March state election in Tasmania. Establishing the terms of such a measure would be highly fraught, as noted recently by Robert Merkel at Larvatus Prodeo.

• Labor has agreed only to “investigate” the possibility of legislated fixed terms; the rural independents are calling for the length of the current term to be set by “enabling legislation or other means”.

• Tim Colebatch of The Age fancies Senate figures suggest Labor should ultimately win the two-party arm wrestle, the results of which won’t be known to us for at least a month.

• Tasmanian firm EMRS has published one of its regular polls of state voting intention, which has the Liberals down from 39.0 per cent at the election to 35 per cent, Labor down from 36.9 per cent to 34 per cent, the Greens up from 21.6 per cent to 26 per cent – overstatement of the Greens being a feature of EMRS polls. The firm suffered a further dent during the federal election campaign when its poll failed to detect the strength of support for Andrew Wilkie.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,048 comments on “Limbo dancing”

Comments Page 73 of 81
1 … 72 73 74 … 81

  1. [Wilkie probably said yes, but where will the money come from. Never mind, says Abbott, we have creative accounting.]

    In Tony’s case, it would be creationist accounting.

  2. [The CC issue has run in one direction only for Abbott so far. But if things work out, CC will be back in the centre of political engagement again]

    briefly: Actually, I think Abbott’s leadership is at risk of falling to climate change even if he forms govt. Wilkie, Oakeshott, Windsor, the Greens and Labor all want a price on carbon, as well as some Liberals like Turnbull. With the numbers so tight, such legislation could pass the House, and easily pass through the incoming Senate, even if an Abbott coalition opposes it. And as someone mentioned earlier, it’s likely the coalition will want to deal themselves into any negotiations so they can achieve the most business-friendly outcome possible. They can’t do that with Abbott now he’s pledged to Stop The New Taxes.

  3. [I tend to agree with your assessment. Hope our confidence is well founded.]

    Victoria, relax. lie back and think of England.

  6. dave @ 2581

    “Singapore has had 3 Prime Ministers so far –
    Lee Kuan Yew , Goh Chok Tong & Lee Hsien Loong (Lee Kuan Yews son)
    They are referred to as the Father, the Son & the Holy Goh.”

    That’s almost as good as the comment made at the time when Margaret Thatcher was under challenge from both Michael Heseltine and John Major at it represented a battle between the Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe.

  8. Finns

    [Diog, where were you Bob Askin was trying to run the bastards over?]

    I wasn’t even born then. I just looked Askin up. He looks as bad as Joh. How come he’s not more infamous?

  9. Nostradamus
    [counting your cygnets before they hatch? Nice try people.
    I just can’t wait to see you leftards all squirm on Monday.]
    You may well be right about a Coalition win. Can you say in all honesty that you agree with their right to govern considering their deceptive behaviour?

  10. [Margaret Thatcher was under challenge from both Michael Heseltine and John Major at it represented a battle between the Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe.]

    Yes!

    one of the best quotes ever

  11. [I just can’t wait to see you leftards all squirm on Monday.]

    Based on a special Nostrils prediction nobody else can see or understand.

  13. Please, some wariness and lack of premature jubilation. Apart from anything, it’s bad luck to get cocky before the thing is in the bag.

  15. #3584

    [ It would depend how it was being negotiated? As I said, Abbott and Co. are con artists, frauds and liars.
    ]

    Taa. Just be careful you don’t turn con artists, frauds and liars into a slogan.

    😆

    T

  16. T’other problem Tony has, is that he has conned himself.

    The tactic of saying something constantly, even though it was wrong, worked initially because he had such strong support from the MSM. You know the phrases … pink batts (repeat 100 times in every news outlet known to man) … “bad govt.” (repeat etc etc.) “boats” (repeat etc etc.) … “waste” (repeat etc etc.) and on and on.

    Now though, he is fighting on a different front, but doesn’t understand the tactical chang required because he isn’t as nuanced and probably is psychologically unable to understand said nuances.

    Thus he has blundered in in full combat rig, rather that using the diplomatic route. In essence, as I think someone else said, he still thinks he is fighting the election, and because his tactics there seemed successful, he uses them as a template for all future battles. Which just goes to show, old dogs sometimes are better off rolling over and playing dead.

  17. Dee went –

    Did Wilkie ask for $1 billion dollars or is that what the Coalition are stating?

    ltep went –

    The Coalition aren’t exactly saying Wilkie asked for $1 billion. They’re saying he asked for a teaching hospital. You’ve got to watch out for their tricky way of saying things.

    Robb was on Lateline last night talking to Jones.

    Robb said the libs had agreed to fund the hospital up to a cost of $ 1 Billion, that abbott having been a health minister had expertise in this area so HE was able to estimate how much it would cost for a world class teaching hospital.

    Wilkie didn’t put the amount on, he didn’t know – he just wanted the hospital.

    Go to latelines website and watch it yourself ?

  18. Speaking of Margaret Thatcher, the latest Vanity Fair profile of Sarah Palin states that Ms Palin had not heard of the Iron Lady at the time she was taken in hand by John McCain’s minders. Now, she is anxious to meet MT (in lieu of Ronald Reagan) but even now is unaware that she suffers dementia.

  23. [NATSEM disowns Coalition costings. See Peter Martins Blog. Or is this old news?]
    And is reported in the MSM?
    How can Robb get away with such a blatant LIE?

  27. [If anyone has gone off the deep end in the last couple of weeks, it’s the Honourable Member for Mackellar]

    Dimentia has begun, the woman is to be pitied

  29. [Abbott instructing all his shadow ministers to parrot the same line about the supposed evil Labor/Greens alliance makes the Libs look even more desperate and shifty.]

    And the mantra dutifully promulgated, uncritically and without comment, time after time on their ABC.

  31. I heard Wilkie interviewed on PM – Robb is accurate – he asked for a new hospital. They came up with the Billion. They did say how they would find this money and in the light of the black hole found it an odd offer or wtte. Julia, on the other hand said – you can’t have a new hospital or even the money for a full refit because of the budget constraints but by moving the already costed funding round she could offer the 350 million. He thought that the first offer was sloppy and the second sophisticated and ethical.

  34. [Go to latelines website and watch it yourself ?]
    Fran was interviewing Wilkie this morning trying to muddy the issue.
    Thanks for the clarification & instructions but I will pass.
    Robb makes me sick to the core.

  36. Cuppa: You can always rely on Mark Simpkin to run pro-Abbott propoganda on “Their ABC”.
    Nostrodamus – you may be right with your prediction, perhaps your side of politics will succeed with your bullying and intimidation of KOW.

  38. [Robb said the libs had agreed to fund the hospital up to a cost of $ 1 Billion, that abbott having been a health minister had expertise in this area so HE was able to estimate how much it would cost for a world class teaching hospital.]

    Last time abbott brought a hospital in Tasmania he paid a $1 for it just before 2007 election)

    Inflation has been running hasn;t it

  39. Dee went

    NATSEM disowns Coalition costings. See Peter Martins Blog. Or is this old news?

    And is reported in the MSM?
    How can Robb get away with such a blatant LIE?

    Because our brilliant media rarely challenge him or the other libs. Very rare exceptions, Peter Martin and Laura Tingle today.

  40. He also said that the political composition of Denison was a factor but not the deciding factor – he would have risked being a one term wonder if he genuinely thought the Coalition would offer the better government.

    He sounded good – so I officially take back my earlier concerns. 🙂

  41. [Speaking of Margaret Thatcher, the latest Vanity Fair profile of Sarah Palin states that Ms Palin had not heard of the Iron Lady at the time she was taken in hand by John McCain’s minders. Now, she is anxious to meet MT (in lieu of Ronald Reagan) but even now is unaware that she suffers dementia.
    ]

    Palin or Thatcher?

  42. [Rod,
    This probably doesn’t have any relevance to your posts. When I was at uni went to a “lecture” over a lunchtime given by Jack Lang. Can’t remember the venue but it was the biggest at the uni. Overflowing. Liberal stooges rampant but what a performance by Lang! When asked his views on the 35 hr week ( do any of you remember that? ) he disagreed. He said it should be a 24 hour week. Work for everyone and better quality of life.]

    Indeed it does have relevance. Just the sort of thing that got lost sight of in the mix. Fascinating man, Lang, and cruelly treated by history, I’m afraid.

  43. Ta Dee!

    So Robb’s now waist deep in warm brown and smelly … he’s gone from ankle, to knee to waist in 24 hours … someone should tell him he’s in quicksand or he’ll choke on it by tomorrow!

  44. From the Lateline transcript:

    [ANDREW ROBB: Tony, it was on his advice the most important program for his electorate, and in fact for Tasmania, from his point of view. He said Tasmania no longer had what was, in effect, a fully accredited training hospital.

    It was Andrew Wilkie who said to Tony Abbott, ‘we need a new hospital. The State has not got any money and we could need up to $1 billion to produce that hospital’ and then he proceeded to provide all the arguments why it should be spent there as a priority and not elsewhere in Australia.

    So he laid out a strong program and Tony Abbott said that if he helped us to form government, that that hospital would be a sensible investment for Tasmania.

    TONY JONES: So you’re saying, just to interrupt you there, you’re saying the $1 billion figure came from him and you just accepted it as face value did you, is that how it worked?

    ANDREW ROBB: We said up to $1 billion so, obviously…

    TONY JONES: So you said, ‘well, you can have a billion in that case’?

    ANDREW ROBB: No, we said, we said that whatever it costs, up to a billion dollars. We have some idea. Tony Abbott has been the health minister, so he has got some idea of what a world-class training hospital, a centre of excellence would cost to place in Tasmania.]

    Who to believe….

  47. [You can always rely on Mark Simpkin to run pro-Abbott propoganda on “Their ABC”.]

    Evan, I’ve heard, though don’t know if it’s true, that Simkin went to school with Abbott.

  49. [So Robb’s now waist deep in warm brown and smelly … he’s gone from ankle, to knee to waist in 24 hours … someone should tell him he’s in quicksand or he’ll choke on it by tomorrow!]
    But will you hear abou this on MSM? Highly unlikely. If this was the ALP the media would have dismembered them.

  50. [He sounded good – so I officially take back my earlier concerns. ]

    Gweneth, I agree, and in so doing, set the moral and ethical bar … a standard that will be hard to meet should KOW go with the coalition.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 73 of 81
1 … 72 73 74 … 81