Limbo dancing

While you wait:

• The media has finally awoken to the possibility the Steve Fielding might yet win the race for the final Victorian Senate seat, which is the only result of the election still in doubt. The ABC projection has John Madigan of the Democratic Labor Party winning the seat after narrowly escaping exclusion at “count 21”, where he keeps ahead of Fielding with 3.29 per cent of the vote against 3.14 per cent. If Fielding gets ahead – and there is reason to think name recognition will boost him on below-the-line preferences – it will be he rather than Madigan that snowballs to victory with the help of the other preferences. However, Antony Green reckons it more likely whoever gets ahead will ultimately land short of the third Coalition candidate, Julian McGauran, who will benefit from the Coalition’s traditional strength on late counting. More from Andrew Crook at Crikey. Those wishing to discuss the Senate count are asked to do so in the dedicated post below.

• Government formation negotiations have turned up a number of agreements on campaign finance and electoral reform. The Labor-Greens alliance proposes that the two parties will “work together” to enact reforms that were blocked in the Senate last year by the Coalition and silly Steve Fielding: lowering the threshold for public disclosure of donations from $11,500 to $1000, closing the loophole that allows separate donations below the threshold to be made to multiple state party branches, shortening the gap between receipt of donations and disclosure, tying public funding to genuine campaign expenditure, banning foreign donations and banning anonymous donations over $50. Julia Gillard has said the deal she has offered to the independents, which has not been made available to the public, is along the same lines. According to The Age, “Tony Abbott has signalled he is prepared to consider significant reform but is yet to reveal the specific options he is putting to the three rural independents”.

• Also in the Labor-Greens agreement is a promise to “consider” a long-standing Greens private members bill which proposes to abolish the “just vote one” above-the-line Senate option that commits the voter to the party’s registered Senate ticket, to be replaced with preferential ordering of at least four party boxes above the line (seven at double dissolutions). This would result in votes exhausting where no further preference is indicated, rather than locking every vote in behind the sometimes highly obscure candidates who survive to the final stages of the count.

• Labor and the Greens also promise to “work together” to enforce “truth in advertising”, which the Greens have been very keen on since Labor targeted them with a smear campaign before the March state election in Tasmania. Establishing the terms of such a measure would be highly fraught, as noted recently by Robert Merkel at Larvatus Prodeo.

• Labor has agreed only to “investigate” the possibility of legislated fixed terms; the rural independents are calling for the length of the current term to be set by “enabling legislation or other means”.

• Tim Colebatch of The Age fancies Senate figures suggest Labor should ultimately win the two-party arm wrestle, the results of which won’t be known to us for at least a month.

• Tasmanian firm EMRS has published one of its regular polls of state voting intention, which has the Liberals down from 39.0 per cent at the election to 35 per cent, Labor down from 36.9 per cent to 34 per cent, the Greens up from 21.6 per cent to 26 per cent – overstatement of the Greens being a feature of EMRS polls. The firm suffered a further dent during the federal election campaign when its poll failed to detect the strength of support for Andrew Wilkie.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,048 comments on “Limbo dancing”

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  1. You’d be hard put to beat Hockey in a pie eating contest, but I think that even I would make a better accountant than Sloppy. 😆

  3. Last time abbott brought a hospital in Tasmania he paid a $1 for it just before 2007 election)

    Inflation has been running hasn’t it

    Sure has 🙂

    Same thing at stake too : Government !

  5. I’m betting Denis Shanahan is desperately hoping for a Newspoll to come before Monday that says 50/50 so he can be assured that the sky is not falling on his head.

  9. Victoria

    [All you need to know about Abbott & Co., is that they are con artists, frauds and liars.

    I forgot to add bullies.]

    Actually, all you need to know is that they are in the Coalition – the rest follows.

  10. I think Turnbull was pushing the consenus approach on CC for two main reasons. Firstly, he really believes in the science and, secondly, he believed that the political reality was that if the liberal party did not embrace CC it would come back to bite them at some stage.

    Hopfully Julia will be PM for the next three years with the support of the greens and the “coalition of the good ” and this will bring a new political landscape into being.

    The formation of the CC committee, the greens gaining the BOP in the Senate and a new consensus approach to major policy issues born out of necessity may well make the liberals as relevant as yesterdays dinner on this issue. Turnbull must be sitting back shaking his head. He could see this coming, not this quickly, but coming nevertheless.

  11. victoria @ 3656

    Apparently that wasn’t working so they have a new approach…

    “The Coalition has done away with the niceties in a last-ditch effort to take office, embarking on a fear campaign to win the support of the independents that can deliver it a parliamentary majority.” (ABC Online)

  13. [You’d be hard put to beat Hockey in a pie eating contest, but I think that even I would make a better accountant than Sloppy.]
    I don’t know, he might have gone a long way in Andersons. A lot of accounting firms have made good money telling people their numbers add up to what they want to say they add up too 🙂

    At just $11 billion of fake savings, Hockey’s effort doesn’t even make the top ten! 😀
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/17/biggest-accounting-scanda_n_502181.html

  14. [ Robb said the libs had agreed to fund the hospital up to a cost of $ 1 Billion, that abbott having been a health minister had expertise in this area so HE was able to estimate how much it would cost for a world class teaching hospital.

    Wilkie didn’t put the amount on, he didn’t know – he just wanted the hospital
    ]

    So they didn’t offer him $1 billion at all. They merely offered him the cost of the hospital up to $1 billion (which someone earlier had said was about $600 million).

    So the slogan about the $1 billion offer is wRONg ?

  16. There was a poll today saying that (about can’t remember exact numbers) 37% preferred Gillard, 30 odd* % were pro Abbott and 27% for a return to the polls. Can’t remember where I saw it … channel 9 maybe?

    Note Nostra (if you’re still here and Mum hasn’t sent you to clean your room) the asterisk was to signify the oddness of people who are pro Abbott … just in case you didn’t get it.

    Sorry in advance for my meanness William!

  17. [Turnbull must be sitting back shaking his head. He could see this coming, not this quickly, but coming nevertheless.]
    I would like to see Turnbull interviewed & challenged on the Coalition costings just to see if he defends or disowns.

  18. I won’t comment on Askin – because of libel laws.

    Read all about him in “The Prince and the Premier” also “Can of Worms” for more of the flavour of those times.

    It is really all about being in power for too long – all power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. A very old saying and overused, but nonetheless true.

    My “marble of death” never came out in the ballot to be conscripted.

  19. Evan, I’ve heard, though don’t know if it’s true, that Simkin went to school with Abbott.

    They may both be Riverview *old boys* but simkin is much, much younger than abbott.

    Abbott 52 ish ? Simkin, I noticed him in abbott’s presser yesterday in the lib party room and he look pretty young. I’d estimate early 30’s at the most.

    But agree, he gives abbott pretty favorable reports – but who hasn’t this election – they all wuve rabbott. vomit…

  24. [ someone should tell him he’s in quicksand or he’ll choke on it by tomorrow! ]

    Or start selling tickets to the show….What comes around.

  27. Okay bludgers – someone I know will be in the Q&A audience on Monday night. This is the panel:

    Bob Katter, Independent MP
    Peter Beattie, former Premier of Queensland.
    Christine Milne, Greens Senator
    Nick Minchin, Senator for South Australia
    Rebecca Huntley, author and commentator

    They need to provide a question. They can write it on the night. Any ideas?

  29. ?????? ??? ????? ???? ???? ??? ???????? ?? ??????? ??? ?????? ???? ?????? ?????? ???? ??? ???? ?? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ?????? ??????? ???????? ???????

  31. [“embarking on a fear campaign”.

    Who are they trying to frighten?]

    They are trying to frighten the voters. Those living in the Indies’ seats, and the electorate more widely. True to form, they are promulgating the meme via slogan/mantra: “The most left-wing government since Whitlam’s”.

    Be frightened of the Great Big New Left Wing Government.

    Obligingly (and predictably) the media picked up the mantra within hours, and are running it on high rotation with it to give it a good bedding and boost along.

    The Coalition can always count on their ABC as propaganda partners.

  33. [I think the Tories are trying to set up a we was robbed campaign.

    Of course. Thats the way they operate.]
    They thought they were robbed at the 2007 election. 😀

  36. Deewhytony 3582

    Yes, that’s exactly how I feel. The Right in Australia, and elsewhere, have something in their DNA about sending people to war, so long as they personally are not involved.

    The tragedy of Vietnam is testament to what they stand for. Lest we NEVER forget.

  37. Cuppa

    it is finals fever here in Victoria with the AFL. The meme by the coalition over the weekend, won’t have any impact around these parts. Also, State of Victoria is on high alert for floods over the weekend. Apparently, we can expect rain that has not been had here in 15 years. Doubt the voters of Victoria will blink.

  38. They are trying to frighten the voters. Those living in the Indies’ seats, and the electorate more widely. True to form, they are promulgating the meme via slogan/mantra: “The most left-wing government since Whitlam’s”.

    Be frightened of the Great Big New Left Wing Government.

    They picked the wrong three blokes to try such tactics on. It will push them the other way if they needed any pushing and then when the decision is announced next week the amigos will pay the libs out as well for the gutter tactics.

  39. Good evening Bludgie smugglers. I see noone has won yet. I hope VP gets themself some sleep. A point I would like to make:

    I remember seeing an article earlier where Windsor (?) said that choosing the Coalition would be the easier option. While I am not going to go back through a hundred pages to see what was discussed about this, it wouldn’t surprise me if Nostrils et al saw it and used it as
    “evidence” that the Coalition would be chosen. However, this could not be further from the truth. If KOW are aware that the Coalition was the easiest option for them and they were leaning towards the Coalition anyway, they would’ve probably chosen by now. While it could still go both ways, I am a little more optimistic of our chances. Especially combined with the fact that Abbott needs the support of all 3 to take government, whereas Gillard just needs the support of two (or even as little as none, if she can convince them to abstain if they don’t want to support her.)

    Also, I’d like to thank those that were up with me last night for discussing Lovecraft with me. Last night I had a dream that Abbott and his rabble were actually a Cthulhu cult and electing him would rise the old one from the ocean. 😆

  40. #3668

    [ I won’t comment on Askin – because of libel laws.]

    wRONg. he is dead. He or his estate can’t sue you. However, if anyone involved in the story is still alive they may be able to sue you. You would have a perfect defence if you can prove what you say is true. So shoot.

  41. Cuppa

    I should add that the people living in the electorates of the Indies know what to expect. Apparently, smear campaigns by the Libs have been waged against Oakshott and Windsor in the past. It is par for the course.

  43. feeney,

    They follow Bismark’s (or was it Moltke the Elder’s?) definition of war.

    It is a continuation of policy by other means…especially if no-one you care about is at the pointy end.

  44. Gweneth 3677

    Question One to Senator Nick Minchin:
    In over ten years of office under John Howard, the coalition steadily reduced public health funding, including to rural health. We all know that it is not financially attractive for private health providers to add to rural services. What guarantees would the independents have that, once an Abbott government was in office, public health funding and rural health would not decline again?

  45. [Be frightened of the Great Big New Left Wing Government.]
    Perhaps the ALP should start fighting back with the ‘Extremist’ Right Wing Party.
    They could slide it in ever so politely with emphasis on ‘Extremist’.

  48. Further to earlier speculation that a disaffected Lib had been approached to be Speaker. Peter Slipper had been fingered by some but he denied being contacted.

    Judi Moylan is also on the Speakers Panel.

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