While you wait:
• The media has finally awoken to the possibility the Steve Fielding might yet win the race for the final Victorian Senate seat, which is the only result of the election still in doubt. The ABC projection has John Madigan of the Democratic Labor Party winning the seat after narrowly escaping exclusion at “count 21”, where he keeps ahead of Fielding with 3.29 per cent of the vote against 3.14 per cent. If Fielding gets ahead – and there is reason to think name recognition will boost him on below-the-line preferences – it will be he rather than Madigan that snowballs to victory with the help of the other preferences. However, Antony Green reckons it more likely whoever gets ahead will ultimately land short of the third Coalition candidate, Julian McGauran, who will benefit from the Coalition’s traditional strength on late counting. More from Andrew Crook at Crikey. Those wishing to discuss the Senate count are asked to do so in the dedicated post below.
• Government formation negotiations have turned up a number of agreements on campaign finance and electoral reform. The Labor-Greens alliance proposes that the two parties will “work together” to enact reforms that were blocked in the Senate last year by the Coalition and silly Steve Fielding: lowering the threshold for public disclosure of donations from $11,500 to $1000, closing the loophole that allows separate donations below the threshold to be made to multiple state party branches, shortening the gap between receipt of donations and disclosure, tying public funding to genuine campaign expenditure, banning foreign donations and banning anonymous donations over $50. Julia Gillard has said the deal she has offered to the independents, which has not been made available to the public, is along the same lines. According to The Age, “Tony Abbott has signalled he is prepared to consider significant reform but is yet to reveal the specific options he is putting to the three rural independents”.
• Also in the Labor-Greens agreement is a promise to “consider” a long-standing Greens private members bill which proposes to abolish the “just vote one” above-the-line Senate option that commits the voter to the party’s registered Senate ticket, to be replaced with preferential ordering of at least four party boxes above the line (seven at double dissolutions). This would result in votes exhausting where no further preference is indicated, rather than locking every vote in behind the sometimes highly obscure candidates who survive to the final stages of the count.
• Labor and the Greens also promise to “work together” to enforce “truth in advertising”, which the Greens have been very keen on since Labor targeted them with a smear campaign before the March state election in Tasmania. Establishing the terms of such a measure would be highly fraught, as noted recently by Robert Merkel at Larvatus Prodeo.
• Labor has agreed only to “investigate” the possibility of legislated fixed terms; the rural independents are calling for the length of the current term to be set by “enabling legislation or other means”.
• Tim Colebatch of The Age fancies Senate figures suggest Labor should ultimately win the two-party arm wrestle, the results of which won’t be known to us for at least a month.
• Tasmanian firm EMRS has published one of its regular polls of state voting intention, which has the Liberals down from 39.0 per cent at the election to 35 per cent, Labor down from 36.9 per cent to 34 per cent, the Greens up from 21.6 per cent to 26 per cent – overstatement of the Greens being a feature of EMRS polls. The firm suffered a further dent during the federal election campaign when its poll failed to detect the strength of support for Andrew Wilkie.
[What is the weather like in SA?]
Pissing down here in the Barossa.
My property is on a one in one hundred year flood plain. I just went outside and checked Greenock Creek (which runs through the back of my property) and it has six inches in it.
Given the banks are about eight feet high, I don’t think I’ll bother to check again until morning 😉
[may be they will invade us in boats, and try to change our ways.]
Haha. Then thy’ll be the dreaded “boat people”
Seriously though. I find it scary that we’re heading down the red state/blue state line of thinking…
[victoria
Posted Friday, September 3, 2010 at 9:30 pm | Permalink
crikey whitey
yes, we are waiting for the deluge here in Melbourne.]
its the el Nino effect
i heard one celeb today who had trouble saying it and wondered what it was,
had to have it explained,
[Rod – Australia’s public dental system is a joke, medicare has more holes than swiss cheese, Howards assault on public housing has resulted in a chronic shortage of rental property and families forced to pay enormous rents for monthly leases in caravan parks on the fringes of town were if they can’t afford to run a car they can’t find work.
If they do find work then unless they are skilled it will not be a job – it will be a temporary assignment via some labour hire company.Eight hour day – twelve hour shifts are becoming the norm out there in post union factory land even under”fair work Australia” or whatever it is called.
The post materialist new new “left” need to get out and about bit more, there is still a lot of hardship in this country.]
Couldn’t agree more, Pedro. That is exactly what I was trying to say. Back in the old days even the Labor (well, it was still Labour back then!) right used to see this sort of stuff as “core business”. I think it still needs to be.
jenauthor
you make an interesting analogy. The indies would have observed right from the start, the difference between the parties. The coalition is not ready to govern, especially if they expect to lead a minority govt. made up of a “rainbow” coalition.
Abbott thought he could con his way into office.
[Seriously though. I find it scary that we’re heading down the red state/blue state line of thinking]
me to thats why i suggested they can have all the lib policies till they wake up to themselves. truly wouldnt that be good workchoices no gp clinds pay up front for uni no dental scheme no pbs, then they may want to join us in this centruary…
[Seriously though. I find it scary that we’re heading down the red state/blue state line of thinking…]
Pebbles the voters have spoken, who are we to not humour them.
[Apparently Abbott agreed to do something as well, just wasn’t detailed so I expect Wilkie didn’t think he was serious.]
Wilkie was actually brilliant in his rationale of rejecting Abbott. He saw right through him and realised his promises were hollow and he would say anything to get elected.
Meanwhile the media claim that Gillard is backflipping because she agreed to adopt a position on an issue that she previously had no position on at all…
My Say
its actually
La Nina = WET
El Nino = DRY
we are in a an La Nina event,may last up to seven years
I preferred Healy`s comment after Ranatunga had asked, as usual, for a runner. `You don`t just get one for being a fat, lazy, c… you know.`
you know if it had been an outright win for either the big black hole would not have been discovered now the libs have to live with this for the next generation.
“The coalition is not ready to govern” that is the slogan that will win us this election. Even the MSM can construct an narrative around this one. And it is true as well as valid.
sorry gus didnt think it looked quite correct well at least i know whats it all about
not like the medi who had to ask what it was all about.
Is there a protocol for leader’s attendance at our fallen soldiers’ funerals?
There must come a time when not all can attend and what of the GG in this respect?
And my heartfelt agreement with all on Askin, Menzies and Vietnam.
Punna
my understanding of Leaders attending funerals, is that it is up to the families wishes whether they want them to attend or not.
[Maybe if you need another member for labor, just hid a mars bar under one of the government backbenches and tell Joe Hockey???]
Kumar Sangakkara would be a fine Labor member. How about you Wal?
[ why are they like that enlighten me is it the heat is the petersen days ]
It’s a frontier up here, north of noosa it progressively gets more so, I grew up in the deep dark north where it is stunningly beautiful but very backwards. I can’t explain it my say, I keep thinking it will get better as more enlightened people from down south move up here but there is either not enough of them or they get the conservative disease and degenerate 🙁
[Pebbles the voters have spoken, who are we to not humour them.]
I have seen it happen in the US. There are two nations there now. When Bush was president, half the nation were ready to secede or disown their nation and were all claiming that Bush wasn’t legally President, while the other half were claiming that patriots support their president and don’t question him etc. When Obama became president, all that happened was they flipped roles over. Regardless of who is in the White House as of Jan 20, 2013, I have no doubt the split will still exist.
I don’t really want to see that here.
[Wilkie was actually brilliant in his rationale of rejecting Abbott. He saw right through him and realised his promises were hollow and he would say anything to get elected.]
heard one lot of media say well wtte that Wilkie let down the libs he didnt take the billion dollars. Also the liberals here ; Tasmania duded didnt take the billion”
that was the state libs.
a labor spokes person here wtte, laughed and said, well a check for 1 billion how and when wtte
Libs after VIC election 1999 … self righteous bullies who met their day
Libs after Fed election 2010 … self righteous bullies on a comeback who fell over themselves
[Okay scarpat @ 3770 you now have to construct a better one…]
Gweneth, Victoria, how about “Given that Treasury has found an $11 million dollar black hole in the Opposition’s costings, how is it going to find the additional $1 million committed by Andrew Robb to pay for the new Tasmanian Hospital?”
the rain has arrived. It was not that long ago, that the sound of rain was a rare event. This past few months, Melbourne has had more normal rain events, than at any time in past 10 years. Just in time for our desal plant which is under construction.
sorry cheque
Scarpat
good question, but you mean 1 billion?
[victoria
Posted Friday, September 3, 2010 at 9:40 pm | Permalink
the rain has arrived. It was not that long ago, that the sound of rain was a rare]
i really miss the rain on the roofe now my hearing almost gone, i would love to wear my hearing aids to bed some times but oh snores so imagine that,
night all
My Say
I think Qld expresses an emotional response to this election
next one reason will prevail
tone bought and sold back one hospital for a dollar perahps he is trying to make up for that error
We should build more dams.
[La Nina = WET
El Nino = DRY
we are in a an La Nina event,may last up to seven years]
Can’t remember where I saw it, but it seems we enter La Nina type of patterns whenever we have a ALP govt in power, thus the drought is easing and Lake Eyre has water this year and last.
If for no other reason than they represent ‘farming communities and the like’ … the Indies should keep the ALP in power.
my say
good night. don’t forget to ask Mary Mac to get Labor over line next week?
[ Wilkie was actually brilliant in his rationale of rejecting Abbott ]
I think Wilkie set the scene, laid the bait, lured them in and sprung a trap. Humiliation returned with interest.
[expresses an emotional response to this election
next one reason will prevail
]
yes i am sorry for being so self righteous
[good night. don’t forget to ask Mary Mac to get Labor over line next week?]
will do. have a good week end every one and god bless, or let the light shine
[It’s a frontier up here, north of noosa it progressively gets more so, I grew up in the deep dark north where it is stunningly beautiful but very backwards. I can’t explain it my say, I keep thinking it will get better as more enlightened people from down south move up here but there is either not enough of them or they get the conservative disease and degenerate]
Peter Dutton. Enough said.
Jon
It was brilliant in its conduct and execution. It could not have happened to a nicer bunch!!
my say
dear one you could nevr be self righteous
:kiss:
only fibs are self righteous
my say
Before you get too silly, remember that Queensland will still be sending twice as many ALP MHRs to Canberra as Tasmania.
Oh no! We’ve awakened Chtulu’s best mate Gamblor!
Fear the wrath!
Battlestations Wilkie and Xen.
Gambler councillors on SBS recommend abstaining from gambling is the best treatment.
OK.
A good piece of journalism would have asked them how they could achieve this.
Stinks of bias here. Bad job SBS.
[Scarpat
good question, but you mean 1 billion?]
Victoria, oops – yes I meant billions in both cases ( however it’s probably all the same to the Opposition’s economic whizzes 🙂 )
[I don’t really want to see that here.]
Just come up and read the Courier Mail, listen to Radio Courier Mail on their ABC, read the Murdoch press relayed to every tinpot town in Queensland through APN, read the Quest suburban newspapers who collect suburban news and feed it up to the Courier Mail.
Too late Pebbles it is already here, it’s the charge to conservatism that just keeps getting defeated by the unelectability of conservative forces. This time they got together a nice old gaggle that look destined for opposition. It’s a fun place if you don’t weaken.
my say, the main reason why Qld is so conservative is because the Courier-Mail serves up a daily diet of conservative propaganda. Myself and others try to combat it by writing letters to the editor, but its an unequal battle.
Scarpat@3821
If as expected the indies have decided for Labor before Q&A that question would be moot.
Whats the situation with education level by electorate? The ABS have a listing based on the percentage of people who stopped education at Year 10. I have to believe Kennedy is up there with the best of them.
Hi all,
Been catching up on the post, a couple of comments from earlier today,
[jules went hard on the black hole, good on her…]
should be SOP for the ALP for the next 3 years, repeat, repeat repeat.
I read Fran’s article on the drum – and heard comments here re her interviews with Wilkie and Hockey, the transcripts from the interviews today, compared with the article should be a study in ‘compare and contrast’.
Someone here commented (in the 2000s) maybe the producer on RN breakfast is an influence.
What I can’t get is that the ABC used to leak like a sieve, I am sure the story behind the ABC’s politicisation will surface.
Good luck everyone here in the wet, still dry here in Sydney.
[Gweneth, Victoria, how about “Given that Treasury has found an $11 million dollar black hole in the Opposition’s costings, how is it going to find the additional $1 million committed by Andrew Robb to pay for the new Tasmanian Hospital?”]
Is that you Barnaby?
Boll
Posted Friday, September 3, 2010 at 9:36 pm | Permalink
I preferred Healy`s comment after Ranatunga had asked, as usual, for a runner. `You don`t just get one for being a fat, lazy, c… you know.`
He should have said, “I’ve seen better bats in a cave”.
That always got a glance from the bat holder.
[If as expected the indies have decided for Labor before Q&A that question would be moot.]
Punna, excellent if that is the case. I am in a time zone that is not girt by sea so have the indies stated that they will make an announcement next Monday?
[Is that you Barnaby?]
It’s Time, you promised that you wouldn’t out me!
This place is going to go into absolute meltdown when KOW announce their intentions.
Will it be a presser or a press release? Or will Gillard/Abbott announce it?
Dio
actually the KOW already announced their decision
no has bothered to read between the lines
ps where have all the fibs gone????????