Limbo dancing

While you wait:

• The media has finally awoken to the possibility the Steve Fielding might yet win the race for the final Victorian Senate seat, which is the only result of the election still in doubt. The ABC projection has John Madigan of the Democratic Labor Party winning the seat after narrowly escaping exclusion at “count 21”, where he keeps ahead of Fielding with 3.29 per cent of the vote against 3.14 per cent. If Fielding gets ahead – and there is reason to think name recognition will boost him on below-the-line preferences – it will be he rather than Madigan that snowballs to victory with the help of the other preferences. However, Antony Green reckons it more likely whoever gets ahead will ultimately land short of the third Coalition candidate, Julian McGauran, who will benefit from the Coalition’s traditional strength on late counting. More from Andrew Crook at Crikey. Those wishing to discuss the Senate count are asked to do so in the dedicated post below.

• Government formation negotiations have turned up a number of agreements on campaign finance and electoral reform. The Labor-Greens alliance proposes that the two parties will “work together” to enact reforms that were blocked in the Senate last year by the Coalition and silly Steve Fielding: lowering the threshold for public disclosure of donations from $11,500 to $1000, closing the loophole that allows separate donations below the threshold to be made to multiple state party branches, shortening the gap between receipt of donations and disclosure, tying public funding to genuine campaign expenditure, banning foreign donations and banning anonymous donations over $50. Julia Gillard has said the deal she has offered to the independents, which has not been made available to the public, is along the same lines. According to The Age, “Tony Abbott has signalled he is prepared to consider significant reform but is yet to reveal the specific options he is putting to the three rural independents”.

• Also in the Labor-Greens agreement is a promise to “consider” a long-standing Greens private members bill which proposes to abolish the “just vote one” above-the-line Senate option that commits the voter to the party’s registered Senate ticket, to be replaced with preferential ordering of at least four party boxes above the line (seven at double dissolutions). This would result in votes exhausting where no further preference is indicated, rather than locking every vote in behind the sometimes highly obscure candidates who survive to the final stages of the count.

• Labor and the Greens also promise to “work together” to enforce “truth in advertising”, which the Greens have been very keen on since Labor targeted them with a smear campaign before the March state election in Tasmania. Establishing the terms of such a measure would be highly fraught, as noted recently by Robert Merkel at Larvatus Prodeo.

• Labor has agreed only to “investigate” the possibility of legislated fixed terms; the rural independents are calling for the length of the current term to be set by “enabling legislation or other means”.

• Tim Colebatch of The Age fancies Senate figures suggest Labor should ultimately win the two-party arm wrestle, the results of which won’t be known to us for at least a month.

• Tasmanian firm EMRS has published one of its regular polls of state voting intention, which has the Liberals down from 39.0 per cent at the election to 35 per cent, Labor down from 36.9 per cent to 34 per cent, the Greens up from 21.6 per cent to 26 per cent – overstatement of the Greens being a feature of EMRS polls. The firm suffered a further dent during the federal election campaign when its poll failed to detect the strength of support for Andrew Wilkie.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,048 comments on “Limbo dancing”

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  1. I looked up that book about Askin. The full title doesn’t leave a lot to the imagination!

    [Prince and the Premier: Story of Perce Galea, Bob Askin and the Others Who Gave Organized Crime Its Start in Australia]

  2. BTW an extra nod of respect to whoever reminded me the other day that Wilkie could be our Putin or Bush Snr when I suggested the possible inadequacy of military service and spookdom to prepare one for political shades of grey.

  8. [The ABC is promoting a book about “Australia’s relentless struggle against the rabbit.” This should disprove any suggestion of ABC bias.]

    Unfortunately it looks like the kalesi virus has run its course or is not effective in Sydney’s northern beach region.

  10. [You know you should never do numbers!]

    It’s Time, but…but…they all look the same to me…especially those round circular ones.

  11. The closest this government has moved to anything like a genuine left position was the original mining tax, then as soon as BHP etc put on the squeeze they went to water dumped their leader and toned down the tax, softening the blow with some very optimistic predictions about how close the revenue would come to the revenue raised by the original version.
    That original tax was worth fighting for, unlike a useless ets which would have achieved next to nothing.I would not be suprised if the next slice of news we hear is that in order to get Katter and Windsor on board the tax gets even further reduced.

  12. I know Katter’s an “individual” (was it an ex AFL player who sang that?) but would he go on q&a without having announced a decision?

  13. [That original tax was worth fighting for, unlike a useless ets which would have achieved next to nothing.I would not be suprised if the next slice of news we hear is that in order to get Katter and Windsor on board the tax gets even further reduced.]

    PEDRO, the big mining companies agreed to the revised tax as Katter and Windsor would be well aware.

  14. Re the announcement , I think it will be Monday or Tuesday, I imagine the timing is dictated by confirmed results from the AEC – that is the only reason I can think for the delay .

    The Indies should announce it, either singularly or together.
    Like everyone I have been thinking about how they will go, and the position of their electorates, especially after Wilkies announcement.
    I think of them this way
    Wilkie and Crook- could be considered ‘accidental’ members,if their electorates knew what the outcome was going to be they would have votes differently. They have to consider this in their decision.

    Brandt – a clear winner, the voters voted knowing he would likely win, but he is of the left. His job – keep the ALP honest.

    OKW – genuine ‘free agents’ they have earned right to decide as elected representatives for their electorate, I think they will all be re-elected.

  15. [I know Katter’s an “individual” (was it an ex AFL player who sang that?) but would he go on q&a without having announced a decision?]

    What was I thinking? Of course he would. And I think it was “Jacko” who sang I’m an Individual.

  16. It’d make no difference whether there was an official decision to Katter. He turn up whenever and wherever he wants. I’m actually surprised he has managed to keep in lockstep and turn up wherever Windsor and Oakeshot need him so far.

  17. Am watching Oakeshott’s presser earlier today.

    He said they’ve been too busy doing what they’re doing to even pay any attention to the antics outside with the pressure from the coaliton.

  18. PEDRO

    Wilkie may have issues with the Mining Tax from what I have seen. I can’t seem to pin down his main objections though. I saw a quote today saying he thought both the RSPT and the MRRT were “recklessly constructed”.

    I saw this in the Business Spectator today re Katter

    [

    Katter won’t rule out Labor support

    One of three independent MPs needed by Prime Minister Julia Gillard to form a minority government has hinted he could negotiate on Labor’s mining profits tax, which he previously opposed.
    ]

  20. Anyone think Hockey, is positioning himself as a leader of an ‘extreme centre right’ liberal party?

    All you have to ask Joe is what is the difference between extreme centre right and extreme centre left – the tablecloth colours perhaps?

  21. Windsor stated fairly clearly on ABC 24 today that no final decision could be made until the formal declaration of the poll. He also suggested it would have to wait until it was clear if there would be any legal challenges.

  23. [@leighsales:Tonight I’ll have the company of @Tony_Burke and Christopher Pyne. Lateline ABC1 1015pm ]

    Isn’t that a little late for Christopher to be up?

  25. [He said they’ve been too busy doing what they’re doing to even pay any attention to the antics outside with the pressure from the coaliton.]
    The KOWs would be aware of what is going on but are secure enough in their positions not to be intimidated by such tactics. Another black mark on the coal’s scoresheet. The KOWs will be adding up the scores soon.

  26. Sorry for my ignorance, but I can’t seem to find a definitive answer to this. Does the Mining Tax still need to pass the HOR and the Senate? I keep reading differing opinions on this. Does anyone actually have a definitive answer?

  27. Pedro, relax, it’s OK. Although you do sound less staunch than the truly staunch.

    Perhaps there is something you need to grow. That, of course does not mean balls or courage or conviction. Just a thing about leadership.
    He can’t , she can. Rudd fought a fight he couldn’t win, because he squibbed one he should have won.So it goes.

  29. Wilkie’s main problem on the mining tax IIRC was its retrospectivity.

    And on another note I do find it significant that both centrebet and sportsbet closed the market on “party supplying PM” a few hours ago. (or is that just me?)

  34. Leigh Sales starts her show by announcing the country still doesn’t have a government.

    Shorter Leigh Sales: ‘who’s running the countreeeeee…..!’

  36. Thanks Punna. I just found this on Business Spectator

    [
    Mr Wilkie said he had several problems with the MRRT, including the fact that the tax had been “negotiated with only three companies”.

    He said he was also concerned about the tax applying to a very small number of resources.

    “I have no confidence that the settings are right,” he said, adding that one of the problems was that “too many decisions were made by politicians that should have been made by experts.”
    ]

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Wilkie-independent-election-2010-abbott-gillard-la-pd20100902-8W8FV?OpenDocument

    Still not entirely clear what he wants done. I’m assuming from all this talk about the MRRT that it is back on the table with the Indies.

  38. [Anyone think Hockey, is positioning himself as a leader of an ‘extreme centre right’ liberal party?]

    To paraphrase the immortal Fred Daly, Hockey couldn’t lead a flock of homing pigeons.

  40. [Sorry for my ignorance, but I can’t seem to find a definitive answer to this. Does the Mining Tax still need to pass the HOR and the Senate? I keep reading differing opinions on this. Does anyone actually have a definitive answer?]

    Yes it needs to pass the parliament the legislation has not been introduced to the house yet.

  42. [Are you there? Were you in a better position to see than the ump?]

    The replay shows it perfectly. It was a terrible decision. I wasn’t barracking for either team but that was a shocker.

  44. [Sorry for my ignorance, but I can’t seem to find a definitive answer to this. Does the Mining Tax still need to pass the HOR and the Senate? I keep reading differing opinions on this. Does anyone actually have a definitive answer?]
    Yes. There is no current taxation law which would enable the government to levy a new tax.

  47. [You don’t like to see a game won like that. What a disgraceful decision.]
    At the very best it was marginal – but in those conditions, the time of the game and the lack of impact of the tackle it was rough.
    Unfortunatelty this result will probably be to Collingwood’s advantage.

  48. [I wasn’t barracking for either team but that was a shocker.]

    OK, it’s hard to tell on the radio, so I’ll take your word for it.

    [Isn’t Diogenes always wRONg?]

    About politics yes, but within his areas of competence he’s usually right.

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