Roy Morgan has published a poll encompassing its face-to-face surveys from the past two weekends, hence not accounting for reaction to Labor’s formation of a minority government. It shows Labor opening a 54.5-45.5 lead on two-party preferred, compared with 52.5-47.5 in the last published poll of this kind conducted on the weekend before the election. On the primary vote, Labor is up half a point to 40.5 per cent, the Coalition down 3.5 per cent to 39.5 per cent and the Greens up 1.5 per cent to 15 per cent. The poll has a sample of 1632 and a margin of error of 2.5 per cent – beyond that, the recent election result provides yet more evidence that Morgan’s face-to-face polling has a substantial house bias to Labor.
UPDATE: Further from Gary Morgan:
Analysis of ‘past vote’ — how respondents claimed they voted at the recent Federal election shows, ALP (42.5%, 4.5% higher than actual ALP vote recorded at the 2010 Federal election) cf. L-NP (39%, 4.5% lower than the L-NP vote recorded at the 2010 Federal election). “The difference between the reported ‘past vote’ and the actual election result can be due to either — a Labor biased sample, or by an unwillingness of the part of respondents to admit to voting L-NP. This latter problem has been noted in previous polls over many years. Regardless of the reason for the difference, if the Morgan Poll is weighted correctly for ‘past vote,’ the estimate would be 50:50, exactly the same as the special SMS Morgan Poll conducted on Wednesday/Thursday this week.”
[Really? Which school was that. My local school is (in)famous for churning out Fred Nile. ]
LOL! Poor old Cleveland St has a lot to live down! 😉
Ruddock, Garrett and Oakeshott all went to Barker College in Hornsby, Hamish.
There’s a couple of rugged stories coming out of the West today. Palmer is on Q&A on ABC tonight.
G_Parker From this morning’s paper: Clive Palmer says if he really wanted to influence Brendon Grylls he’d pick up the phone. http://bit.ly/cu3Zww 10 minutes ago via TweetDeck
G_Parker And former CCC targets Brian Burke and Julian Grill say they aren’t suprised public hearings have led to a suicide. http://bit.ly/9bxnlD 8 minutes ago via TweetDeck
Tks blue_green
So it’s all part of the instability narrative.
Ah, cheers.
Crown Street actually. I’m always amazed that someone like Nile could have come from Surry Hills. 😉
Lizzie
Yep. If an independent jumped ship they then would be hated by both parties supporters and hardly look like a strong-spined independent.
If the Greens and Libs both get hardlined in the Senate it will make it difficult for the ALP to have a strong legislative agenda though.
Is Crikey going to update the links to its ‘latest’ daily mail? The election now being Abbott’s to lose now seems a bit dated.
[If the Greens and Libs both get hardlined in the Senate it will make it difficult for the ALP to have a strong legislative agenda though.]
They’d need to find one to begin with. It’s been embarassing watching Gillard try and answer what her top priorities are. She has none.
blue-green:
Perhaps he’ll improve with experience. So far my assessment is he looks good on paper.
He’s just said (albeit indirectly) the coalition won’t be moving forward on climate change. Oops.
Mining interests being represented by Fatty Arbuckle on QandA tonight.
To make the education jumble a bit more confusing, Chris Evans (responsible for tertiary education) will be taking control of the rollout of the primary school building upgrades under the BER.
BK
I did not know who Fatty Arbuckle was, but guessed being rotund would feature. Checked wikipedia. Lol!
[They’d need to find one to begin with. It’s been embarassing watching Gillard try and answer what her top priorities are. She has none.]
I got hammered by people here for suggesting that the Indies had more of a legislative agenda than the ALP.
I have seen no sense of urgency or sense of big ideas to date. I fear that JG will fall into the managerial mode, if she is not already there.
Itep
I suspect the confusing distribution of education may have been deliberate.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/man-shot-dead-in-melbournes-west-20100913-157pg.html
media-lotto : which will be the firt media outlet to say “Just … km from the Prime Minister’s house in Altona”
My prediction – SkyNews, closely followed by Herald-Sun
[confessions
Posted Monday, September 13, 2010 at 12:50 pm | Permalink
blue-green:
Perhaps he’ll improve with experience. So far my assessment is he looks good on paper.
He’s just said (albeit indirectly) the coalition won’t be moving forward on climate change. Oops.]
I am sure someone like Frydenberg has some big ideas. I hope he doesn’t keep them under his hat.
Or he may just be an overambitious cloud of hot air. We shall soon see.
[I suspect the confusing distribution of education may have been deliberate.]
In what way?
[ I fear that JG will fall into the managerial mode, if she is not already there.]
Agreed. She has been praised on all sides for her consultative methods. I believe that Rudd as “inspiration guy” and Julia as 2IC were a good combination – if only Rudd’s “it all goes through me” had not interfered. I was definitely disappointed in Julia’s climb down on mining.
blue-green
On the basis that each minister will need to consult with each other more as their portfolios may overlap at times. Therefore creating a more consultative and involved ministry, rather than being in isolation.
Victoria
Interesting point. But when it comes to the current fad of a few ‘key deliverables’ ulitmately the Ministers spend their dosh and their effort where they are accountable.
Making Ministers speak to each other is a good thing though. It is a bit sad that this point needs to be reinforced though. Cabinets tend to be a key feature of the Westminister system.
Bit of vacuous, looking forward type thing…if the HoR runs its approximate full term, the next election will be Sept 2013…which is also the expiry of the customary 5 year term of the current Governor General
blue-green
I believe Julia is going to make sure that this cabinet will operate in a much more broader consultative manner. It is the only way to keep everyone in the loop and part of the action.
Laocoon
Can she get another go?
Victoria
I hope so. It is bizzare that the process broke down.
blue-green
it kind of gives a bit of clarity as to why Rudd had to go.
Victoria
Or be read the riot act. Did no one have the courage to tell Rudd off.
b_g
[Can she get another go?]
I imagine so. The term of the GG’s appointment is at HM’s pleasure, so anything could go.
Having said that QB would be 71 in 2013, so she may have had enough of tea parties, consitutional crises and what not by then!
blue-green
As Julia said at the of the Leadership change. She will never discuss it. I suspect we have to wait until her and Rudd’s retirements before introspection.
oops the = time
Laocoon
[Having said that QB would be 71 in 2013, so she may have had enough of tea parties, consitutional crises and what not by then!]
There would have to be some good ones around. Will there be a mood for an Indigenous GG? We have had the military and the religious ones.
I doubt there is a mood for a Republic.
Can somebody ask Rabbott how Ministers can be faceless men? Abbott and Hockey have gone bonkers. The whole idea of faceless men was supposed to be that unelected people were exerting influence on the Party.
steve
haven’t you noticed the Libs modus operandi. Say something once. Say it one hundred times!!
I was really looking forward to the AFL / NRL grandfinals. but now I’ll have to watch Mark Arbib as Sports Minister pretending to be a man of the people. Jesus wept.
Julia has obviously rewarded him by giving him a portfolio that will let him burnish his tattered image and pretend to be a retail politician. But, of course, it’s a hopeless case. This is going to be awfully painful
Julia Gillard and Mark Butler both went to Unley High School.
Do people think the Greens embracing the more militant ‘industrial left’ and associated unions from Labor will limit their electoral appeal?
steve
key words
stop the boats, stop the waste, great big new tax, faceless men, illegitimate government.
So Rabbott will just pick the best by merit and not influenced by anybody, Victoria?
steve
The Libs are above party politics. They are honourable, honest and full of integrity. Didn’t you get the meme?
My guess is that the SMH probably pays Paul Sheahan somewhere between $150,000 and $250,000 a year for his right-wing ranting. Surely any readers who find that sort of stuff interesting defected to the Oz long ago. So what’s in it for the herald? Has anyone got any thoughts?
[rosa
Posted Monday, September 13, 2010 at 1:15 pm | Permalink
I was really looking forward to the AFL / NRL grandfinals. but now I’ll have to watch Mark Arbib as Sports Minister pretending to be a man of the people. Jesus wept.
Julia has obviously rewarded him by giving him a portfolio that will let him burnish his tattered image and pretend to be a retail politician. But, of course, it’s a hopeless case. This is going to be awfully painful]
I did think it was more to push him outside the world of focus groups and actually have conversations with people.
b_g
[There would have to be some good ones around. Will there be a mood for an Indigenous GG? We have had the military and the religious ones]
If the political situation in 2013 is looking like the current one, then I suspect a lawyer with a “sound” understanding of constitutional conventions might be the go…having said that, Whitlam might have thought that about Kerr 😆
Based on QB’s appointment, the announcement might be in April 2013
rosa
SMH probably attempts to appease both sides of peoples’ political persuasions.
Maybe they should call Arbib the “Minister for Shortie”.
[If the political situation in 2013 is looking like the current one, then I suspect a lawyer with a “sound” understanding of constitutional conventions might be the go…having said that, Whitlam might have thought that about Kerr ]
Maybe, William Dean changed the nature of the purely legal role though. I think we expect more from them as statesmen these days.
VICTORIA – I’m sure that’s the theory. But I have trouble believing there are many SMH readers as far to the right as Sheahan. But, on the other hand, I suppose it’s better than having a right-wing commentator who makes any sense.
Victoria
I know many lefties who read Miranda Devine just to have someone to hate.
victoria
[The Libs are above party politics. They are honourable, honest and full of integrity]
Geoffrey Barker in a pretty tough opinion piece in the AFR goes after this theme:
[Angry Coalition {sic} leaders are barely concealing their desire to tear down the Gilard minority government at the earliest opportunity. One giveaway is their repeated clain that the government lacks “legitimacy”.
It is a false cpntention and reflects a dangerous double game being played by Tony Abbott and his colleagues. As in 1975, but in very different circumstances, Coalition {sic} leaders are revealing their contempt for the conventions of Australian democracy…
The opposition is not stupid; it is hypocritical and opportuntistic…
Abbott would be better advised to focus on renewing his own party by developing coherent policies and finding museum space for sacred relics like Bronwyn Bishoip, Philip Ruddock and Kevin Andrews.
But genial and prgamatic Tony is reverting already to angry, anarchic Tony…]
Hardly surprising when Abbott used the term “ferocious” in his “concession” speech
New thread.