Newspoll: 50-50

The Australian offers a surprise Newspoll with the two-preferred vote exactly where their accurate pre-election poll had it: 50-50. However, both major parties are down on the primary vote – Labor to 34 per cent, compared with 36.4 per cent at the pre-election poll and 38.0 per cent at the election, and the Coalition parties to 41 per cent, compared with 43.4 per cent and 43.6 per cent. The Greens are on 14 per cent, compared with 13.9 per cent and 11.8 per cent. Tony Abbott has dropped three points on preferred prime minister to 34 per cent, with Julia Gillard steady on 50 per cent. If nothing else, two 50-50 polls in 24 hours provide a nice rejoinder to the fresh-election-now lobby.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,184 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

Comments Page 59 of 64
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  1. [Latest radio ratings released in Melbourne,MTR has only 6000 listeners.Bolt sure has backed a winner there]

    Isn’t it great that Melbourne rejects these shock jock RW radio hacks. I don’t know why it is that Sydney embraces the likes of Jones but dudes like that have never cut it down south.

  9. [MTR has only 6000 listeners.Bolt sure has backed a winner there.]

    Probably due to his voice, bit like Alan Jones not making it on TV but popular on radio.

    Jones is popular on radio but flopped on TV when people saw him.

    Bolt writes columns for the rednecks but his voice doesn’t back up the image, doesn’t rate well insiders either.

    Not sure exactly what it is but he sounds like a cross between Thatcher and Pyne.

  10. [BORROWING by state governments is forecast to hit more than $243 billion, reducing available credit for the private sector as the economy recovers.]

    What a load of absolute rubbish. The OO still peddling this spurious line that govt borrowing will limit the amount of lending available to the private sector. If anything the crowding out theory simply pushes up the interest rate due to demand although that link is doubtful as to limiting the availability of debt that is complete bunkum.

  11. [live pictures of the Pope landing in England.]

    Church must be wishing for the old days when the only protesters were people dressed in devil costumes, who incidentally ended up getting “temporarily detained” to preserve the peace.

    Now the church and the pope are slowly being dragged protesting all the time before the public to account for their failures in dealing with the pedophile priests.

  14. http://www.smh.com.au/environment/big-business-backs-push-to-cut-carbon-20100916-15eqq.html

    Yes Marius Kloppers statement gives Labor a golden opportunity remove the Climate Change albatross from its neck and take an action that will satisfy all those dissappointed in its previous policy backflip.

    I have one question – how does it work if Carbon Tax legislation is negotiated now in time ot be introduced into the Senate after July 1 next year? Is that kosher?

  15. I don’t know whether it’s because they’ve led isolated lives or what, but I find some of the “X is a Christian, therefore…” type remarks a bit bewildering. The attitude seems to be that anyone who believes in something they don’t is therefore an idiot.

    It is highly possible that Fielding is an extremely silly person not because he is religious or because of his brand of religion but because he just is.

    Religions are just like any other field of human activity. To suggest that people automatically leave their brain at the door because they are a Christian is far too simplistic. I’d agree that with SOME people religion is an excuse not to think, but most people who don’t want to think find similar excuses.

    And I’m an atheist.

  16. I agree with the Pope landing in England- yech! The patron saint of harboring paedophiles flown in at taxpaye expense. Did Cameron invite him? Is he catholic, or just blessed with very poor judgement? I don’t see how this will go down well wiht his conservative base.

    I suppose there is no prospect of any bishops being prosecuted for conspiracy to pervert the course of justice now in england. If only we had a politician or DPP with morals and courage.

  19. My derision of Fielding has absolutely nothing to do with his religion or what side of the political spectrum he lies on. The broader the representation in the Parliament the better as far as I’m concerned. I’d prefer people who have the ability to back their positions intelligently though and Fielding was always out of his depth.

  20. [I have one question – how does it work if Carbon Tax legislation is negotiated now in time ot be introduced into the Senate after July 1 next year? Is that kosher?]

    Yep :). The Senate is a continuous body and its business is only stopped by prorogations when they happen. This means the bill could be introduced in the ‘old Senate’ and passed by the ‘new Senate’.

  21. Excellent, thanks LTEP. That gives a good window to debate the bill now, and be implemented in a realistic timeframe. If Wilkie, Windsor and Oakeshott are in favour the strategy is obvious.

  28. Further thoughts on a carbon tax, mining tax and BHPB. Looking into the future, Kloppers is being smart. There is an obvious risk that the mining industry could agree to a financially tollerable mining tax levied now, then have a carbon tax added in future under a Green dominated Senate that could put some parts of their business under real threat. In this respect teh original Henry Tax Review proposal was better, because it wouldn’t have made projects unviable, whereas the combinatiion of the compromise plus carbon tax might. Given the long term nature of mining investment decisions it is probably sensible for them to agree to a reaonable compromise package of both a mining tax and a carbon tax regime that they know they can live with.

  29. morning bludgers

    It is being reported on 774 that Greg Hunt is accusing Julia of breaking an election promise not to introduce a carbon tax. He said wtte that she has already broken an election promise by not ruling out a carbon tax. She has to explain this to the people.
    WTF is he on about? I clearly recall on many occasions Julia stating that she believes in climate change and that there should be a price on carbon.

    Can someone clarify his accusations?

  31. [Socrates
    Posted Friday, September 17, 2010 at 7:51 am | Permalink
    Further thoughts on a carbon tax, mining tax and BHPB. Looking into the future, Kloppers is being smart. There is an obvious risk that the mining industry could agree to a financially tolerable mining tax levied now, then have a carbon tax added in]

    this may be why Mr Wilkie may want it re looked at may be things going on behind the scene . Thank you Socretas,

    the comment very thought provoking

  32. victoria, perhaps he was referring to this

    [
    Julia Gillard has said there will be no tax on carbon while she leads the federal government.

    The Deputy Prime Minister, Wayne Swan, said last week that if Labor won the election there would be no carbon tax during its three-year term.

    Ms Gillard seemed to go a step further yesterday. ”There will be no carbon tax under the government I lead,” she told Network Ten. ”What we will do is we will tackle the challenge of climate change.
    ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/climate/gillard-rules-out-imposing-carbon-tax-20100816-1270b.html

  33. [It is being reported on 774 that Greg Hunt is accusing Julia of breaking an election promise not to introduce a carbon tax.]

    I think when you run a minority government election promises don’t mean that much as you have to take into account the views of the other players. It really doesn’t matter much what Greg Hunt says.

  34. victoria, apparently, a carbon tax and a price on carbon is the same thing. Dont you get it? But seriously, she did say no carbon tax during the campaign, and yesterday, said ruling options in and out was silly. Its certainly not a broken promise because she hasnt done anything, but she souns open to the option

  35. I’ve got to say whether its the carbon tax, the citizens assembly or the regional processing centre, Gillard needs to learn to be a better political player. She has been silent on Tony’s appalling conduct, was quite weak on Pyne’s speaker-pair backdown, and doesnt seem to translate her parliamentary skills into the media.

  37. I have been of the same view as Cuppa and others about the deliberate Bias of the ABC since long before the election and have said so here.

    One comment i received in response to one of my posts was wtte “there is a cry from the heart”.

    I have never had any doubts that Roo has told his Myrmidons to go forth and spread the good gospel and because of his support for the right wingnuts he has no problem with the right wingnuts on the ABC Board giving his Myrmidons a leg up and another channel to the public ear and at no cost to him.

    When one reads about all of his settlements out of court for his unscrupulous dealings around the planet it would be easy to think how he could reward those helping his cause without having a written contract to do so.

    It just makes it so easy to believe when someone like Menadue, who has managed Noos ltd for a number of years makes a rather scathing attack on Roo and wht he is up to. Pernicious is a fairly strong word and would not be used lightly one would tend to think.

    I didn’t need a tin foil hat to listen to it either.

    http://blogs.abc.net.au/files/john-menadue-interview.mp3

  39. Speaking of Noos Ltd. bias. The beloved Herald Scum has now gone on the attack against Brumby govt. re stamp duty on house transfers. The rate of stamp duty has been the same for eons. Obviously as houses increase in price, so does the amount of duty payable. Whilst I believe these rates of duty are obscene. It is nothing new, but of course, the battle cries have gone out just in time for the impending election. How predictable!

  40. Victoria

    True but then again removing such taxes was part of the GST deal, which almost all states have deliberately failed to implement, so I don’t have much sympathy for Bracks on that one. Stamp duty on house transfer is a terrible tax.

  41. Socrates

    Agreed that it was supposed to be removed once GST implemented. I highly doubt that a Liberal govt would remove this duty either. Honestly, if Ballieu and his crew confirmed unequivacolly that this duty would be reduced dramatically or removed, I would want to know where the shortfall in revenue was coming from. I just can’t see any govt removing this windfall tax. Believe me I think it is an appalling tax. It is the main reason why I and others are reluctant to move house, when you need approx $30,000.00 plus dollars for the privilege.

  42. victoria, I think the Herald Sun is just tapping into genuine discontent in the community on that one. I don’t think it would matter who was in government. Just about anyone I know, Labor or Liberal supporter hates stamp duty. It is surprising how many remember it was meant to go when the GST came in. People have long memories 🙂 So yes entirely predictable but probably wouldn’t matter who was in government.

  43. [
    Honestly, if Ballieu and his crew confirmed unequivacolly that this duty would be reduced dramatically or removed
    ]

    Did Ballieu respond to yesterdays article. I seem to remember the Herald Sun challenging both Brumby and Ballieu on the issue. Has he done his usual disappearing act on this one

  44. madcyril

    If Ballieu did pledge to reduce this duty significantly, he would win the election on that alone. Of course, he would need to identify where the revenue would come from, and that would have to appeal to the voters anyhow.

  45. Good Morning, Bludgers

    [The Deputy Prime Minister, Wayne Swan, said last week that if Labor won the election there would be no carbon tax during its three-year term.]

    Considering relevancy to Pyne & Abbott, what better(?) way to start the day than with a hair-splitting jesuitism:

    No side “won” Election10.

    Labor and Gillard successfully negotiated agreements with three Indies & the Greens to guarantee her supply and confidence; negotiations necessary because she did not win the election, but was still able to form government.

  46. While I think Greg Hunt is correct about Gillard’s promise, it still will be a tactic to allege that any proactive plan by the government in the next 3 years is either a break in promise or an overstepping of the government’s mandate/authority.

  47. Hey victoria. Prepare for the News Ltd all out assault on Brumby. Anything you’ve seen so far is just the tip of the iceberg. We saw it happen here earlier this year, against federal Labor. The next target will be Brumby. Expect any and every bit of dirt to be brought up against the Victorian government up until the close of polls in November!

  48. Isn’t Ballieu still a big player in real estate sales? He would stand to benefit if stamp duty was abolished. I for one would be buying and selling in the next 12 moths if it wasn’t for the SD.

  49. victoria, this is the best I could find on Ballieu. From the Herald Sun editorial

    [
    Spin saw Prime Minister Julia Gillard returned with the barest possible margin in Canberra and lack of a positive program saw the Coalition’s Tony Abbott fall short of victory.

    A similar lack of policy now threatens Premier John Brumby and Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu in Victoria.

    Both leaders are dithering over the issue of soaring stamp duty for home buyers.

    The Herald Sun is asking its readers to joining a home buyers’ revolt by signing an online petition at heraldsun.com.au.

    Mr Baillieu has promised to look at cutting stamp duty for first home buyers. Mr Brumby has tried to excuse it by arguing it is cheaper to buy your first home in Victoria because of his Government’s first home buyer grant.
    ]

    So basically neither are going to do anything.

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