Newspoll: 50-50

The Australian offers a surprise Newspoll with the two-preferred vote exactly where their accurate pre-election poll had it: 50-50. However, both major parties are down on the primary vote – Labor to 34 per cent, compared with 36.4 per cent at the pre-election poll and 38.0 per cent at the election, and the Coalition parties to 41 per cent, compared with 43.4 per cent and 43.6 per cent. The Greens are on 14 per cent, compared with 13.9 per cent and 11.8 per cent. Tony Abbott has dropped three points on preferred prime minister to 34 per cent, with Julia Gillard steady on 50 per cent. If nothing else, two 50-50 polls in 24 hours provide a nice rejoinder to the fresh-election-now lobby.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,184 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  2. Good question TSOP, personally I think the leader of the Nationals Peter Ryan is a more effective operator than Ballieu. But he’s out of the question. Terry Mulder has been good value as Shadow Transport Minister. Anyone else?

  3. [I think when you run a minority government election promises don’t mean that much as you have to take into account the views of the other players. It really doesn’t matter much what Greg Hunt says.]

    Exactly. The ALP doesn’t control either the House or the Senate. A climate change bill will now have to be negotiated between the Greens, Indies & ALP. If a carbon tax is the only thing which everyone is able to agree on then that is the only feasible option for tackling climate change.

    From a political point of view, it is far more important for Julia to go to the next election with a Climate Change Act on the law books, than it is to avoid any perceptions of ‘reneging’ on a carbon tax.

  4. TSOP

    Ballieu has always been a gentleman in dealing with the public. I just don’t think he and his team are a strong group. We will see what they do over the next couple of months. Labor have been in power for 11 years now. That factor works against Labor, but having said that Victoria is moving along quite nicely. Of course, we have our fair share of issues, but overall I don’t see what the Libs would do that is dramatically different.

  8. Morning Bludgers,

    What a beautiful day. I awake to the front page of the SMH headline of Abbott wedged (on climate).

    And I still can’t get over TA’s comments about BHP. WTTE that BHP will just go somewhere offshore if Oz introduces a carbon tax. 😆

    Perhaps BHP will go offshore, and leave behind ten’s of billions of dollars worth of infrastructure and hundred’s of billions of dollars worth of resources they own claims on. And all just to avoid a rounding-error-scale cost of a carbon tax.

  9. [
    Sorry, I did not answer question re alternative leader. I don’t see any. Maybe Cyril may have some other ideas
    ]

    I was hoping you’d have some more to suggest vic, I ran out at two 😀

  12. Is Bill Shorten still favourite on the betting markets to be Labor leader before the next election and when will the ineviatable knives in the back event occur?

  13. I suppose Brumby will be tested at this election, as he became leader not long after Bracks went to the last election. Bracks resigned not long after, and handed reigns to Brumby. He did so not long after his (very handsome) son crashed car when drunk with a passenger. It devastated Bracks. He publicly said he had failed as a parent. Of course, no one blamed Bracks, but it devastated him and his wife. I always felt they were very decent people.

  18. If Abbott becomes increasingly wedged on climate wouldn’t that remove his reason for remaining opposition leader? After all that’s why he was installed by the forces of darkness in the first place and of course in spite of almost getting over the line at the election he remains an electoral liability.

  19. Leader of the Opposition in Victoria after the next election? Not sure which of the Greens is likely to take the job. Or do you think the Libs will get enough seats to force labor and the Greens into a coalition or alliance? 😉

  20. The Oz seems to be on the attack against BHP now 😆 😆 😆

    Here is some outright lies.

    [In seeking a price on carbon for Australia, Kloppers presumably is not advocating that BHP start to pay it immediately on the 103 million tonnes of coal a year it sells. If so, even with a tax set as low as $25 a tonne of CO2, he is advocating a payment from his shareholders of $5 billion a year.]

    Its a lie because that is how much coal BHP sells; not burns.

    A carbon tax will be borne by those who burn the stuff.

    The impost on BHP would be the carbon costs of coal extraction which is largely the diesel use in digging and moving the stuff, plus the cost of the methane emissions as you dig the stuff up.

    I am will wait with baited breath for TA to repeat it though. And also for BHP to correct him.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/big-new-tax-kloppers-cant-be-serious/story-e6frg6zo-1225925023769

  23. So. Is this Herald-Sun stamp duty campaign a set up? An online poll – and we all know how that will go – then Bails announces “something” about removing the tax. Herald-Sun editorializes on Bails being best bet to form Government in Victoria. Too easy.

    Of course, the ABC Radio 774 and TV news will cut and paste the Hun line.

  26. I’m off for the weekend up to Proserpine for my mum’s 80th birthday celebrations.

    Will be interesting to see how the new LNP Member for Dawson is going.

    Be kind to each other while I am away. 😉

  28. Rod Hagen

    I am not in the least surprised about this. I believed all along, that the Libs set the leak up themselves. It was too obvious by half.

  29. [Posted Friday, September 17, 2010 at 9:14 am | Permalink
    Rudd seems to have got well beyond the palace in Pakistan (his alleged destination according to one poster here) – see http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/kevin-rudd-stresses-size-of-job-in-pakistan/story-fn59niix-1225925080388

    Yeah but Labor is bad. Bishop would’ve been better the role. She would’ve flown over Pakistan on her way to Europe or N America with grace and dignity.]

    This position was meant for Kevin all along, its no co incidence that he has ended up here he will do a great job.

    I really beleive sitting at a desk and not doing hand on stuff was not easy for him
    he will be great and do us proud

  30. [In seeking a price on carbon for Australia, Kloppers presumably is not advocating that BHP start to pay it immediately on the 103 million tonnes of coal a year it sells. If so, even with a tax set as low as $25 a tonne of CO2, he is advocating a payment from his shareholders of $5 billion a year.]

    BHP has put a position, they don’t have to put down the nonsense, they are not part of the political process. BHP’s position however makes it a lot harder to continue the nonsense. Klopper’s comments has change the dynamics of the debate, it really doesn’t matter if the Liberal party or “the Australian” like it or not.

  33. morning all from the golden west, ABC news reporting the feds have found no wrong doing by any commenwealth office re the alleged leakof coalition costings…nothing to be heard anywhere else!!!!!! on any electronic media…amazing after all the noise about it from the unhinged one, robb and hockey, the media just ignore the result, bugger me!!!!!
    perhaps it was a dream and I didn’t hear the loud condemnation of Labor and Swan and treasury by the fibs

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/09/17/3014321.htm

  35. The Rudd tour is important to raise the profile of the flood amongst the Australian public.

    It does have a downside though. Disaster workers refer to these as ‘royal tours’ where for days the senior management on the ground is diverted towards showing around dignataries rather than co-ordinating the disaster response.

    Following the Tsunami, most of the usuable 4wds were diverted towards this purpose and for some bizzare reason the dignitaries always want to be taken to the ‘worst and most remote locations’. This makes the ‘royal tours’ more resource intensive than they need to be.

  36. [This position was meant for Kevin all along, its no co incidence that he has ended up here he will do a great job.

    I really beleive sitting at a desk and not doing hand on stuff was not easy for him
    he will be great and do us proud]

    Agreed completely. It irritates me that some people think they are clever by claiming he was appointed to that role to get him out of the country, when (backed up by the fact that he has years of foreign affairs experience) it was obvious since June that Rudd would be appointed to FA if Gillard was returned, regardless of how big of a margin she won by.

    Mind you, revisionist history is standard for a lot of people. Many of whom (centred around the “sunshine” state especially) were ready to load rifles until Kevin was removed and then pretended that they loved him all along…

  37. If Gillard back flips on action to prevent climate change (i.e implementing something earlier rather than later) I hope she comes out and says that it was “the backflip that Australia had to have”

  38. [If Gillard back flips on action to prevent climate change (i.e implementing something earlier rather than later) I hope she comes out and says that it was “the backflip that Australia had to have”]

    It’s interesting, hey. Compare that with the kind of backflips that Abbott was planning (as evidenced by their attempt to hoodwink the nation with their costings)

  39. Never underestimate the power of the word “tax” in a scare campaign, I think one of the primary reasons for the ETS was to obfuscate and avoid calling it a tax. Abbott got traction when he relentlessly labelled it a tax. The resources rent tax got smashed and the government with it because it is called a a tax. One of the main reasons for KR’s precipitous decline in the poles was the word “tax”.
    Howard nearly lost after his first term over tax, the same one Hewson failed on and Keating ran away from, the Democrats where eviscerated over their association with the same tax.

    If history is any guide any government introducing a carbon tax *will* cop a lot of flak over it rather than the praise some seem to imagine.

  42. The thing is that if Gillard back flips on climate change action at this point, is that it really will be “the back flip Australia had to have” 🙂

    As for Abbott, I think it’s funny that people were shocked by costingsgate as history has shown he does more back flips than an Olympic gymnast.

  43. Jon

    Why try to make it seem so hard?

    It wasn’t the attack on the tax that killed Rudd it was him walking away from it.

    Anyway, a carbon tax will likely be offset by a an income tax cut or even a reduction in the GST.

    Its the Great Big New Tax Cut.

    GBNTC

  44. TSOP

    When my OH was teaching my daughter about right and left.

    My daughter understood which one ‘was right’ and which one was ‘left’. But then she asked which one is my ‘wrong’ hand mummy?

  45. Jon is right I think. Almost the same number of people supported the Opposition’s Direct Action plan on climate as the CPRS. People just don’t want to have to pay more personally. They’d rather others do the heavy lifting.

    This isn’t an excuse for governments to do nothing. It just points out the political difficulties of making the right decisions.

  47. blue-green:

    Good morning, and yes, Tone wedged on climate is a fantastic way to start the day!

    We can and should begin the legislative process for establishing a carbon price as soon as the new parliament sits in a couple of weeks. The Senate can take as long as it needs to debate the bills. 😆

  48. Thanks victoria.

    I believe she is the longest lived on her side of the family so far. She is very with it for her age and looking forward to hanging around for a while yet.

    She even bought another house about six months ago with a small mortgage, so she is pretty confident.

    She has also been a great contributor to the betterment of Australia. Not like some I can mention. 😉

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