GhostWhoVotes tweets that an imminent Nielsen poll has the Coalition with a 51-49 lead, their first in any poll since the election. Labor’s primary vote is 34 per cent (compared with 38.0 at the election), while the Coalition is on 43 per cent (43.6 per cent) and the Greens are on 14 per cent (11.8 per cent). More to follow.
UPDATE: In spite of everything, the poll has Julia Gillard’s approval up four points on Nielsen’s pre-election poll to 54 per cent, with her disapproval down two to 39 per cent and her lead as preferred prime minister opening from 51-40 to 53-39. Tony Abbott’s approval rating is down a point to 45 per cent and his disapproval is up one to 50 per cent. This is substantially better than his recent showings in Essential Research (39 per cent approval and 45 per cent disapproval last week) and Newspoll (39 per cent approval and 47 per cent disapproval the week before), perhaps suggesting Nielsen’s sample was skewed somewhat to the Coalition.
Other findings of the poll show it’s far from just voting intention on which the public is almost evenly split:
• Forty-nine per cent were opposed to Australian involvement in Afghanistan with 45 per cent in favour, marking little change on a year ago.
• Fify per cent were opposed to asylum seeker families and their children living in the community while their claims were processed, with 47 per cent in favour.
• Fifty-one per cent felt Murray Darling Basin policy should prioritise communities and farmers while 43 per cent would prefer it prioritise the environment – whatever that might mean. Seventy-nine per cent apparently profess themselves in favour of “a balanced outcome between community and farmer needs on the one hand and the environment on the other”, which I guess means as many as 21 per cent would prefer an unbalanced one.
• Forty-six per cent support a price on carbon, with 44 per cent opposed. As Michelle Grattan notes, “backing for an ETS before the election was between 56 and 60 per cent”.
The poll was conducted between Thursday and Saturday from Nielsen’s usual sample of 1400 and margin of error of a bit over 2.5 per cent.
A couple of other things:
• A Tasmanian trouble-maker will withdraw his High Court challenge against the validity of Liberal Senator Eric Abetz’s election on the basis of section 44 of the Constitution, which forbids dual citizens from running for parliament – Abetz having shown the poor taste to have been born in Germany, and renunciation of citizenship being something of a grey area. The complainant, described by the Hobart Mercury as “wealthy northern Tasmanian antiques dealer John Hawkins”, has agreed to drop the case after being provided with a document in which Abetz renounces his German citizenship. This was dated March 9, 2010, which according to Hawkins implies Abetz had indeed held dual citizenship when he filled a casual vacancy in 1994 and won re-election in 1998 and 2004. He could thus have faced problems if his position had been challenged in the 40-day post-election period in which challenges can be lodged – although he could always have resumed his position after getting his house in order if a compliant seat-warmer had held his vacancy in the interim.
• Labor turned in a poor show at Saturday’s by-election for the Brisbane City Council ward of Walter Taylor, which covers a strongly conservative area south-west of the city around Indooroopilly. At the close of counting Liberal National Party candidate Julian Simmonds had scored an easy victory with 57.1 per cent of the primary vote (down 6.5 per cent on the 2008 election), with Greens candidate Tim Dangerfield on 23.5 per cent (up 8.4 per cent) well ahead of Labor’s Louise Foley on 16.8 per cent (down 4.4 per cent). The by-election was necessitated by Jane Prentice’s election to the corresponding federal seat of Ryan in place of disendorsed LNP incumbent Michael Johnson.
• There was another minor electoral event a fortnight ago with a by-election in the Northern Territory electorate of Araluen, where Country Liberal Party member Jodeen Carney had called it a day due for health reasons. CLP candidate Robyn Lambley had no trouble winning a two-horse race with 1935 votes (68.0 per cent) against Labor candidate Adam Findlay’s 909 (32.0 per cent). This marked a swing to Labor of 6.7 per cent on the 2008 election, bearing in mind that candidate factors have an enormous impact in electoral districts of this size.
UPDATE 2: The latest Essential Research survey shows the two parties still locked together on 50-50, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 41 per cent and the Coalition unchanged on 44 per cent, and the Greens down one to 8 per cent (an unusually low Greens vote having become an established feature of Essential Research polling). On Afghanistan, the poll concurs with Nielsen in having 47 per cent favouring a full withdrawal, against 10 per cent who want more troops and 30 per cent who believe the number should remain unchanged. Party best to handle Afghanistan produces yet another split decision, with Labor on 33 per cent and Liberal on 32 per cent. A question on the Murray-Darling Basin is framed in somewhat more sensible terms than Nielsen’s, with 49 per cent supporting the proposition that the amount of water taken from the system should be reduced against only 20 per cent who disagree. However, a question on detention centres elicits a harsher view, with 53 per cent disapproving of the government’s decision to move children and families into the community against only 33 per cent approving. Fully 63 per cent believe the government’s approach on asylum seekers is “too soft”, with only 18 per cent saying they are “taking the right approach” and 7 per cent believing their stance “too tough”. Only 25 per cent believe Labor the batter party to handle the issue against 37 per cent for the Liberals.
William,
Where are Truthy and GW when you need them?
[What this thread really needs is someone to argue the case that Labor may have taken a hit on detention centres.]
Good point. When was this poll taken? I know this may sound dumb, but wouldn’t that cause a bigger hit?
[Greensborough GrowlerPosted Sunday, October 24, 2010 at 10:55 pm | PermalinkWilliam,
Where are Truthy and GW when you need them?
]
But note the vote didn’t go to the Libs 🙂
[To Speak of PebblesPosted Sunday, October 24, 2010 at 10:56 pm | PermalinkWhat this thread really needs is someone to argue the case that Labor may have taken a hit on detention centres.
Good point. When was this poll taken? I know this may sound dumb, but wouldn’t that cause a bigger hit?
]
Thursday to Saturday
William@50
Sarcasm? The result is statistically no different from Newspoll. If anything, it seems to show a fraction of population thinks Labor is not SOFT enough so they went to the Greens instead, if one accepts that the poll movement is purely due to AS issues (which is by no means certain). Of course, I suspect you know this far better than me.
Thank you, Frank.
I mean it’s all inconsequential at this point obviously. The government need to get into governing on the front foot again. It wouldn’t hurt them to go after the opposition as well.
Yeah, well, William.
I agree that Labor have taken a hit. I posted two or so threads about the SA stuff.
Probably not as definite as, but the deal would be good, as well as can be expected, for the Adelaide Hills (generic) community.
But why the hell did not the Govt address, in advance, the deal?
I have plenty more to say on that, but you have invited posters.
labor vote down 3.9% ( since electon ), coalition down .6%, greens up 2.8%
From the detention centre angle only possible conclusion is voters think labor is still too harse ? Unless we knew what a neilsen poll would have been last week to compare is there any real conclusion to be made at all on any issue during the week ?
I have no idea just raising some questions.
[What this thread really needs is someone to argue the case that Labor may have taken a hit on detention centres. ]
Are you volunteering? 😉
[scorpioPosted Sunday, October 24, 2010 at 11:06 pm | PermalinkWhat this thread really needs is someone to argue the case that Labor may have taken a hit on detention centres.
Are you volunteering?
]
He has to invent another persona since he’s already “retired” Truthy and Cheezy 🙂
[What this thread really needs is someone to argue the case that Labor may have taken a hit on detention centres.]
My bet would actually be that this “hit” probably has as much to do with the MDB beat up as anything else. People don’t like scenes of angry farmers and rural communities etc. The issue has been portrayed very much as “big government” and “greenies” damaging the livelihood of the “little guys like you and me” and people get frightened of such things. No doubt the asylum seeker “no consultation” stuff has fed in to towards the end as well, but for mine it is the MDB that probably lies at the heart of any short term change (assuming there really has been one).
Greensborough Growler@34
And still should have been. Going early before the blood had even been washed away was another Labor political error that cost it dearly, IMHO. And not just because of the still raw emotions at Rudd’s demise, especially in Queensland, but also all that nonsense about Gillard not moving in to the Lodge until after she won an election which put a big question mark over her legitimacy in the eyes of many, diminishing her status as PM. Instead of an incumbent versus a wannabe leader we effectively had two wannabees vying for the top job.
It would have been far better to let the anger/confusion cool and put a few runs on the board for the Gillard Labor government first.
Or could it be the anti war sentiment that is apparently in the community. With the debate in Parliament last week, and the Greens and Andrew Wilkie expressing their anti war views maybe this could explain the swing to the greens?
Call the next persona “Unafraid” or something martyrish like that.
[William@50
Sarcasm? The result is statistically no different from Newspoll. If anything, it seems to show a fraction of population thinks Labor is not SOFT enough so they went to the Greens instead, if one accepts that the poll movement is purely due to AS issues (which is by no means certain). Of course, I suspect you know this far better than me.]
It shows Labor on 34 per cent of the primary vote.
[Rod HagenPosted Sunday, October 24, 2010 at 11:11 pm | PermalinkWhat this thread really needs is someone to argue the case that Labor may have taken a hit on detention centres.
My bet would actually be that this “hit” probably has as much to do with the MDB beat up as anything else. People don’t like scenes of angry farmers and rural communities etc. The issue has been portrayed very much as “big government” and “greenies” damaging the livelihood of the “little guys like you and me” and people get frightened of such things. No doubt the asylum seeker “no consultation” stuff has fed in to towards the end as well, but for mine it is the MDB that probably lies at the heart of any short term change (assuming there really has been one).
]
But none of the vote has gone to the LIbs who would’ve benefitted with the MDB Beat Up though.
Hockeynomics and The Banks ??
Quite a different initial reaction to the Wiki leak from the Lib Dems in comparison to the Aussie reaction.
I’m not sure whether or not the Inquiry into the Iraq War has finished in Britian but if so, then there’s a good chance it might reopen with the latest damaging info.
Tony Blair might be hard to track down for a while now I expect.
[Allegations of killings, torture and abuse in Iraq contained in leaked US military logs, must be properly examined, Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg has said.
Mr Clegg, who has previously said he believes the Iraq war was “illegal”, said it was up to the US administration to answer for the actions of its forces.
And he did not rule out the possibility of an inquiry into the actions of British forces in Iraq. ]
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5gUxpnqSWVje_3GndmvcvkQbwcvAg?docId=N0061761287890452086A
To be honest, I don’t know if these figures can be attributed to any particular issue; it may simply be that, at the moment, Labor can do no right in the eyes for the public. And if that is the case, then the government have brought it on themselves in a lot of ways.
They’ve got three years to do something about it. That rail line might be a good start…
[But none of the vote has gone to the LIbs who would’ve benefitted with the MDB Beat Up though.]
True Frank.
In fact on the info provided so far it is hard to work out exactly where the vote HAS gone. Sure the Greens are up 2.2 (and they tend to rate higher in the polls than the election anyway) , but the combined Labor / Coal vote is down 4.5% , so another 2.3% has gone missing!
Maybe Indis are the flavour of the month!
William:
Was ACN included in your analysis (pre-election) that showed a +4 bias of Morgan F2F when compared with Newspoll? I dont remember what the ACN average difference was in your table.
IMO ACN is often more pro-Lib than Newspoll, so all of the polls still seem to be telling the same story (status quo).
[Maybe Indis are the flavour of the month!]
Actually, I agree its prob water if anything. I think water may be the Meg-Lees-GST albatross for the two-ALP supporting Indies next time around, unless they can work on a way to extricate themselves from the hard decisions that need to be made on this issue.
I think that it means very little – but if this means anything – was in country WA from Wed to Fri and was surprised at negative sentiments expressed – unsolicited – against the farmers who were rioting. No sympathy at all – wtte they have known for years, something has to be done, all the good farmers have already made changes – bunch of whingers etc And there was that survey that supported action on the MDB. Who knows – perhaps they think Labor will give in to the rabble?
Okay, will continue.
I think the Advertiser editorial sort of said it all. Probably after the staffers had read every blog site. I cannot quote directly, only chucked them in tomorrow’s recycling bin a couple of hours ago..
The Advertiser, as usual, is having its billion bobs each way.
It hammered both Rann and Julia for failure to live up to the ideals of consulting.
On different fronts. And that is probably the greater issue. Failure to bring the community in. Anyone who wants to notice will know that it works in many other communities.
But the Editorial included the line re the Woodside/Inverbrackie approach, that a narrative about the benefits to the community, in advance of such an announcement may have smoothed the path, which is pretty well what I posted previously.
One cannot win with the Advertiser, at all. In fact it is difficult to imagine if Julia, for one, or Jamie Briggs, were to have consulted, agreed on an approach and set about having the community sort of go for it, that the Advertiser would ever have fair and balanced the proposal.
At the same time, whilst hearts, minds and pockets far upriver were making their strident and ill informed case about the Water Thing; why would you be dopey enough to introduce without warning such a potentially inflammatory proposal?
It is too difficult to argue a case, community by community.
So, I cannot.
What I can say, is where I live, in Boothby, I see many, many Somalians, Sudanese going harmlessly about their business. Kids going to school. Christian people among others volunteering to assist the women refugees, circumcised, battered, escapees.
Enough.
Would not the next Essential and newspoll give a better idea as to the effect, if any, on voters of the events of last week rather than this first Nielsen since the election ?
No idea myself just asking a question.
Maybe everyone wants to vote for Wilkies , after his Afghanistan stance?
Julia should go and meet the farmers like Howard did during the buy back , as Hawke would have done. Stand and take them on. Do it the condition that she gets a fair hearing. That is what I think.
it ON the
Gweneth: [Stand and take them on]
When was the last time the ALP stood firm and argued an unpopular position?
Gweneth @76,
At the moment Julia and labor have not got anything to defend re the MDB. Time and time again it has been stated that the guide is just that, a guide. It is not government policy. The farmers have been told that but from waht has been shown they are not listening. Once the draft plan is released then policy is out there and perhaps that would be the time for labor to push harder ?
On the detention centre issue in the Adelaide Hills it is my understanding that no AS have yet moved in. The announcement was made, Bowen has said that any costs will be met by the Government and immigration department reps will meet with locals to answer any questions and listen to concerns. Am I missing something or is this not a consultation process ? It is not as if AS have been moved in under cover of darkness. Surely labor has been open about the process?
Mod Lib: lots of times.
I am not interested in being grilled about the Labor Party by some one who has not yet given one really good reason why he/she actually vote Liberal. You don’t like Abbott, you don’t like many of their policies, you concede that the left has done many good things – although not as well perhaps you you would like, you claim that there is really no difference between Labor supporters and Libs… etc etc and then you ask a loaded question like that.
I am giving an armchair opinion that is essentially worthless to a crew who (mostly) share my view of the world. Take it in the same spirit.
Mod Lib @78,
Would it not be better to judge labor on what they now do rather than what happened under Kevin?
Lets see what happens in the next six months. If they squib on MDB, AS etc. then I will agree with you 100%.
People have a justified perception that labor will fold on these issues but give the new Gillard Government a chance and then if they fail rip into them.
I don’t believe they will.
Hi, Scorpio.
How are things at the top end of Broadway?
Driving through, I have not noticed it to be a hot bed of racial division.
Though it used to be, as we have mentioned.
Do you remember, I am sure you would, that the Ities up the road, still there, I reckon, planted olive trees, for god’s sakes, on our footpaths.
I am certain I have mentioned that my brothers and I ringbarked the olive trees.
Well, I was only a little kid. But probably ten, maybe, years old.
How ill informed, no, not informed, were we?
And since, like wow. I am ashamed, in my pitiful ignorance, of the time.
I was going to say, nothing racial, and that is true. A certain difference. Not anglo is all.
Doyley – It is the symbolism that counts. I know that it is a guide etc. So do the farmers. This is the National Party trying to create a Tea Party ‘rebellion’ for the media. It may backfire on them if what I was hearing over the last few days was wider spread – but the image would be powerful. However, having said that, the media would try and distort it to the max. So it may well be a bad idea. I just think that the media also like a bit of drama and if she carried it off it would be decisive.
@81,
After “justified perception” I should have added that this has been aided to a great degree by the MSM.
Gweneth, the lack of courage to argue unpopular positions is exactly one of the problems I have with the ALP. BTW: as it turns out I didn’t vote Liberal last time so all the things I am saying about Tony and Asylum seekers etc are honest- you will have to trust me on this though!
Believe me, I would love to see the ALP out there fighting to convince people, I just don’t see it happening, and haven’t for some time. If they have the courage to do it on water then Kudos to them, but I wait to see it first.
Oh, Scorpio.
Do excuse me.
I was writing in general. I know that you were not a participant in my childish acts.
Gweneth @83,
I understand what you are saying but at this stage I really don’t think the MSM would give Julia a go. How many of the remaining meetings would she have to go to ? If she goes in early, then will she have to do it again in six months when the draft is released and cop it again ? I don’t know the answer but I think at this early stage she would be on a hiding to nothing.
crikey whitey,
[Hi, Scorpio.
How are things at the top end of Broadway?
Driving through, I have not noticed it to be a hot bed of racial division.
Though it used to be, as we have mentioned.
Do you remember, I am sure you would, that the Ities up the road, still there, I reckon, planted olive trees, for god’s sakes, on our footpaths.
I am certain I have mentioned that my brothers and I ringbarked the olive trees. ]
When I was down there earlier this year it was quiet as a church mouse. Most of the prople down that end have been there for yonks and being elderly, probably spend much of their time watching TV.
I understand from the FIL that before most of the houses were built in that area it was actually an olive orchard. Some of the trees are still there.
I tried to contact you before I left for Adelaide to tee you up for a cup of coffee down at the Brighton jetty shops but couldn’t catch you. Sorry to have missed you.
[In fact on the info provided so far it is hard to work out exactly where the vote HAS gone. Sure the Greens are up 2.2 (and they tend to rate higher in the polls than the election anyway) , but the combined Labor / Coal vote is down 4.5% , so another 2.3% has gone missing!
Maybe Indis are the flavour of the month!]
If the poll movement is driven by Asylum Seekers then the missing 2.3% could also have gone to some party which is even further to the right than the Coalition.
William Bowe Posted Sunday, October 24, 2010 at 10:53 pm | Permalink
“What this thread really needs is someone to argue the case that Labor may have taken a hit on detention centres”.
OKAY, William.. I have done my small best.
Not all that sure about the rest of the world.
Nielsen Poll
Gillard Approval: 54 (+4) Disapproval: 39 (-2)
Abbott Approval: 45 (-1) Disapproval: 50 (+1)
Preferred PM: Gillard 53 Abbott 39
The SMH: Left turns up heat on battling PM
SMH article on Nielsen
http://www.smh.com.au/national/voters-split-on-key-labor-policies-20101024-16z93.html
http://www.smh.com.au/national/left-turns-up-heat-on-battling-pm-20101024-16z8p.html
Fair enough Mod Lib but your name and some of your lines of argument in the past are not consistent with this. If I sound a little testy it is because my political beliefs are based on strong convictions that come from a long life of experience. I love a debate but not pseudo-debate. First rule of rhetoric: steer clear of generalisations.
[Last week, Mr Abbott told his party room that Labor’s failure to improve in the polls showed the government was vulnerable. He told the shadow cabinet the opposition had to be prepared to take government at a week’s notice.]
http://www.smh.com.au/national/left-turns-up-heat-on-battling-pm-20101024-16z8p.html
Might be worth Tony’s while to tell his troops that every week. It might come true eventually.
Then again, it might not too!!! 😉
From the above article
Last week, Mr Abbott told his party room that Labor’s failure to improve in the polls showed the government was vulnerable. He told the shadow cabinet the opposition had to be prepared to take government at a week’s notice.
Does he really think this is going to happen?. I can’t see the indies changing their minds, so how does he think this is going to happen?
Hello, GhostWhoVotes.
It is not unlikely, in these strange and unusual patterns and times, that Preferred PM may be more significant than we would usually regard it.
The issues are so volatile. !! The water,the broadband, the beat ups etc.
In a strange way, it really is down to personalities, at this stage.
Had a little home game of Texas Hold Em, the other night. Dollar a game.
Indeps, Julia, Abbott, Wild Card Turnbull. So We Think.
[Does he really think this is going to happen?. I can’t see the indies changing their minds, so how does he think this is going to happen?]
Maybe the Nat rent-a-mobs are planning to storm Parliament ?
I find it hard to get enthused about any poll at the moment no matter what it finds. Who cares?
Vik
I think poor Tone’s a bit delusional.